Democrats Heading For Messy Nomination Process

[Thump553]

Originally posted by: WhipperSnapper

I wonder...if Hillary is the nominee...will Obama supporters vote for Hillary? Don't many of them dislike Hillary and aren't there many voters in both parties who dislike Hillary? On the other hand, if Obama is nominated, would Hillary supporters vote for him? As far as I know, Obama doesn't have a "hate club" in either party. (Looking for a term that would be the opposite of "fan club".)

I've seen at least one survey that said 70% of Obama supporters would vote for Hillary and 72% of Hillary supporters would vote for Obama (could be the other way around, but difference is insignificant).

The problem won't be Hillary losing Obama supporters, or vice versa. The problem will be, assuming McCain is the GOP nominee, indepedents flocking to McCain in an anti-Hillary blacklash, assuming Hillary is the nominee. In my view, this is an extremely likely scenario and will once again prove the Democratic Party is adept at snatching (political) defeat out of the air in the face of nearly certain victory.

You will get a few Pabster types but frankly I'm not convinced they are anything more than mere talk in their "support" of Obama.

The significant deciding factor for me supporting Obama over Hillary is in the hopes that we won't have to overcome the antipathic hatred a sizeable portion of the population has about her.

 

[Lemon law]

The interesting thing about Super Tuesday is that the democratic turn out was almost exactly evenly matched between Hillary and Obama.

With the contest now basically half over, other trends show. Hillary does better in traditional democratic states where any dem would win normally. Hillary also does better with Hispanic voters bringing some traditional Republican Western States into play. Somewhat a must have if McCain who has some pro immigration Hispanic appeal of his own is the GOP nominee.

Obama does better in the South and in tradition republican red States needed to swing the general election to the democrats. Which should make Obama more appealing to super delegates who are free to select the person they perceive as the strongest candidate. And that candidate looks to be Obama at the present time. Especially since Hillary has high negatives with some voting groups.

But I also think PJ is correct in labeling the remainder of the dem race as a battle of personalities rather than issues. And if Obama and Hillary continue to split the vote equally between them, neither may arrive at the convention with 2025 delegates lined up.

But some Jokers are in the deck (1) The remaining February primaries will tend to favor Obama possibly igniting a stampede. (2) The March primaries will tend to favor Hillary possibly igniting a stampede for her in the April and May primaries. (3) Obama is better funded than Hillary and the ability to pay for ads does swing votes. (4) And the real biggie of how dirty it will get as democratic disunity becomes a danger. Clinton can appeal to the black vote and only lost it when Bill opened his yap. In time that will be forgotten. And Obama can appeal to the hispanics as well as Hillary in any general election. And the dems need both the black and Hispanics united behind the dems in the general election. So both candidates would be wise to downplay the personal issues. (5) In general, a deadlocked convention is a disaster to a political party. If nothing else, it means money needed to be saved for the general election will be spent on primaries. And bad feelings will build.

But in that latter area, the concept of superdelegates some critics tout as a disadvantage can become an advantage. Especially if it goes dirty. Because they can backroom caucus and then publically line up behind the strongest candidate. And then can also sooth the loser with sweet deals if they play along with the party line. Then the hype goes out that the winner hit 2025 and then its all sweetness and love going into the convention. Lots of time to heal the wounds and court the various constituencies. And in many ways, most democratic voters may prefer one or the other, but will not be badly alienated if their second choice comes in first.

So still advantage dems because the repubs have no candidate who appeals to even a majority of their base coalitions. The dems only get damaged if the primaries get dirty and the convention deadlocks.