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December 31, 2011 prediction thread

Double Trouble

Elite Member
Oct 9, 1999
9,272
103
106
Well, we just started 2011, what are some of your predictions for the year? It will be funny at the end of the year to come back and take a look a them. I've peered into my crystal ball, and here's what I see.

Kim Jong nutcase will die, and his son will be assassinated prior to taking over. NK will be a puppet run by a Chinese supported government.

I think this is going to be the year of stagnation. Not a lot of moving forward, political gridlock and squabbling, a job market that won't improve much at all. One SCOTUS member will pass away and after a nasty fight with the senate, Obama will end up putting a decidedly more moderate justice on the court.

Several smaller cities will go bankrupt, and the federal government will bail out a major city to avoid massive problems (Chicago? NY?). Maybe even a state (CA? IL?).

I also think this is the year inflation is going to start picking up and the interest rates on the national debt will go up, causing an even bigger budget shortfall by the end of the year. Hopefully I'm wrong on that one.

In sports, I'm picking the celtics to win it all in the NBA, the Steelers to win the superbowl, with LSU and Oklahoma in the 2011 season college football title game. OSU will win the college basketball crown in March.

Gas prices will climb up, slowly at first, but I suspect we'll be at $4.50 per gallon at the end of the year.

The Chinese economy is going to start showing cracks, as years of rapid growth without matching infrastructure (energy, roads, pollution control) start taking their toll. There will be big internal strife as the government struggles to keep control.

All that is just fluff, the important news is that Lindsay Lohan will end up in jail again, and that justin bieber will finally come out of the closet ;)

What are some of your predictions?
 

iGas

Diamond Member
Feb 7, 2009
6,240
1
0
Oil is going to break $100 barrel.
Natural gas price decline.
 

CycloWizard

Lifer
Sep 10, 2001
12,348
1
81
Inflation will continue to be very high (it already is, but the government calculating the number doesn't want to admit it because it would be devastating to an already troubled economy). The quantifiable result will be a rise in oil and food prices. I'll speculate that these will respectively increase by 35% and 20%.

US stocks will do fairly well this year, though this will primarily be a result of inflation. This will cause the DOW to go back up to 13,700.

Unskilled laborers in the US will continue to sit on their couches receiving unemployment since the minimum wage is set higher than their worth in the marketplace, even after accounting for transportation costs to/from developing nations. Quantitatively, unemployment will be ~14%.

The first large health insurer will go belly up late in the year as a result of the ridiculous stipulations of ObamaCare. More will follow like dominos, though this may not occur until well into 2012. The impending healthcare crisis will be the determining factor in the 2012 elections as we finally decide whether we are going to adopt a single-payer system (which we eventually will) or continue to fight it.

A brain drain will occur in which well-trained Americans will start moving to more capitalistic places (e.g. Germany and Singapore). I'm not sure how to quantify this one (since I don't think stats on such things are tracked), except to say that I might be one of them. :p

The UN will start to show signs of a backbone, passing resolutions implying the use of military force if Iran and North Korea keep screwing around. These resolutions will still lack the teeth to have any real effect, resulting in increasingly deep divisions in the world community: the lines for the next big war will be clearly drawn, but this war won't be fought in any traditionally recognizable manner. The US/EU/South Korea/India coalition will align against Russia/China/Iran in an ugly mess of girly fighting that won't be started in earnest until 2012.

Mexico will continue its descent into the seventh circle of hell. Africa will continue to circle the drain. South America will begin its rise to prevalence as its economies develop and populations continue to increase. The correlation between growing population and economic growth will finally become apparent. Many liberals will still reject the implicit causality because they're bad at math, all the while watching their favorite social programs continue to ruin countries with low birth rates.

Or not...
 

dmcowen674

No Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
54,894
46
91
www.alienbabeltech.com
The first large health insurer will go belly up late in the year as a result of the ridiculous stipulations of ObamaCare. More will follow like dominos,

A brain drain will occur in which well-trained Americans will start moving to more capitalistic places (e.g. Germany and Singapore). I'm not sure how to quantify this one (since I don't think stats on such things are tracked), except to say that I might be one of them. :p
Health insurer going bankrupt, bahahahahaha OMFGBBQ

Your well-trained? double bahahahahaha

Yes, please leave to Germany or Singapore ASAP, this country will be so much better off. Bye
 

CycloWizard

Lifer
Sep 10, 2001
12,348
1
81
Health insurer going bankrupt, bahahahahaha OMFGBBQ

Your well-trained? double bahahahahaha

Yes, please leave to Germany or Singapore ASAP, this country will be so much better off. Bye
Where are your predictions? Why don't you collect them all in this thread instead of scattering your idiocy in every thread in this forum?
 

Schadenfroh

Elite Member
Mar 8, 2003
38,416
4
0
Israel strikes Iran's Nuclear program, rest of the world does nothing, gas skyrockets quickly and then subsides when WW3 does not start.

Dear Leader of NK dies, Junior becomes puppet of his army and acts just like daddy, country is still another decade away from imploding from within.

Austerity measures for the US similar to what is going on in the EU.

More states will recognize a Palestinian state, but it will not change anything.

SK and Japan get pushed further into the US camp by NK foolishness and Chinese ambition.

Rare Earths become a non-issue when western mines become operational again after environmentalist realize now necessary they are to green technologies and that China hording them will kill the green movement.

Euro becomes more unstable as Germany picks up more and more of the slack. Brits laugh their asses off while counting their pounds.

No inflation, slight deflation in the economy. 2011 will be a lost year with little, if any, economic growth. Unemployment will be > 10%.

Better ties with India, worse ties with Pakistan.

Julian Assange suffers an "accident."
 

Argo

Lifer
Apr 8, 2000
10,045
0
0
1) Republicans will be under fire, because after a year in Congress they haven't accomplished anything.

2) Obama will shift to the middle, trying his best to position himself for 2012 re-election.

3) Stock market will see modest rise (5%)

4) There will be a full blown war between South and North Koreas.

5) New York Giants continue to disappoint Argo.
 
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iGas

Diamond Member
Feb 7, 2009
6,240
1
0
Inflation will continue to be very high (it already is, but the government calculating the number doesn't want to admit it because it would be devastating to an already troubled economy). The quantifiable result will be a rise in oil and food prices. I'll speculate that these will respectively increase by 35% and 20%.

US stocks will do fairly well this year, though this will primarily be a result of inflation. This will cause the DOW to go back up to 13,700.

Unskilled laborers in the US will continue to sit on their couches receiving unemployment since the minimum wage is set higher than their worth in the marketplace, even after accounting for transportation costs to/from developing nations. Quantitatively, unemployment will be ~14%.

The first large health insurer will go belly up late in the year as a result of the ridiculous stipulations of ObamaCare. More will follow like dominos, though this may not occur until well into 2012. The impending healthcare crisis will be the determining factor in the 2012 elections as we finally decide whether we are going to adopt a single-payer system (which we eventually will) or continue to fight it.

A brain drain will occur in which well-trained Americans will start moving to more capitalistic places (e.g. Germany and Singapore). I'm not sure how to quantify this one (since I don't think stats on such things are tracked), except to say that I might be one of them. :p

The UN will start to show signs of a backbone, passing resolutions implying the use of military force if Iran and North Korea keep screwing around. These resolutions will still lack the teeth to have any real effect, resulting in increasingly deep divisions in the world community: the lines for the next big war will be clearly drawn, but this war won't be fought in any traditionally recognizable manner. The US/EU/South Korea/India coalition will align against Russia/China/Iran in an ugly mess of girly fighting that won't be started in earnest until 2012.

Mexico will continue its descent into the seventh circle of hell. Africa will continue to circle the drain. South America will begin its rise to prevalence as its economies develop and populations continue to increase. The correlation between growing population and economic growth will finally become apparent. Many liberals will still reject the implicit causality because they're bad at math, all the while watching their favorite social programs continue to ruin countries with low birth rates.

Or not...
14% unemployment is a bit of a steep expectation, because at that level it would make 2008 cake walk.

Why now, if the UN don't have teeth in the last few years?
Don't forget 2011 is Iran year to be the head of OPEC (25% of world oil supply).
 

Svnla

Lifer
Nov 10, 2003
17,999
1,394
126
My predictions:

Budget deficit/total debt will continue to go up and government won't do much to tame it. We may need to do something like Greece/Ireland when we absolutely have to.

China economy will show weaknesses/pop due to property bubles (empty cities anyone?).

US economy/job will continue to be sputtering.

Congress/WhiteHouse will continue to point fingers and won't accomplish much.
 

iGas

Diamond Member
Feb 7, 2009
6,240
1
0
Israel strikes Iran's Nuclear program, rest of the world does nothing, gas skyrockets quickly and then subsides when WW3 does not start.

Dear Leader of NK dies, Junior becomes puppet of his army and acts just like daddy, country is still another decade away from imploding from within.

Austerity measures for the US similar to what is going on in the EU.

More states will recognize a Palestinian state, but it will not change anything.

SK and Japan get pushed further into the US camp by NK foolishness and Chinese ambition.

Rare Earths become a non-issue when western mines become operational again after environmentalist realize now necessary they are to green technologies and that China hording them will kill the green movement.

Euro becomes more unstable as Germany picks up more and more of the slack. Brits laugh their asses off while counting their pounds.

No inflation, slight deflation in the economy. 2011 will be a lost year with little, if any, economic growth. Unemployment will be > 10%.

Better ties with India, worse ties with Pakistan.

Julian Assange suffers an "accident."
What make you think Israel going to attack Iran on the year that Iran is the head of OPEC organization. The window for attacking Iran is now close, unless Israel prepare to go to war and forfeit blood money from the US.

What make you think China is hording rare earth?
They don't have enough to satisfy their internal demand let alone exporting it. Look at the claim that China hording copper to drive price up, the reality is that there isn't enough to go around therefore current copper price is nearing 2007 price peak (my copper mine stocks are doing well due to it fact). As for bring up the California rare earth mine up to speed is going to take at least 2 years according to Morlycorp Mineral reports, because they lacks the skills and is a decade behind China on the extraction technology (thanks to globalization in the last couple of decades). The only other rare earth mine that could be fast track to operation is Avalon Rare Metals that currently plan to have production as early as 2013 if possible (IMHO, 2014~2015 is more likely). Rare Element Resources is the only other rare earth resource in North America that is plan to have a resource estimation date by 2011 and that suggest it might be able to fast track production at the earliest is by 2016~2017.

My take on this is that I'm buying more rare earth stocks and watch the mining reports closely in the summer/fall of 2011.
 
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Acanthus

Lifer
Aug 28, 2001
19,915
2
76
ostif.org
DOW: 12200

American forces will remain in both Afghanistan and Iraq with no clear end in sight.

With no new regulations passed the finance industry will continue to siphon wealth out of the average american at record, pandemic levels.

The housing industry will remain sluggish, the average price of homes sold will fall.

Existing real estate will continue to lose value in major cities on average.

U3 Unemployment: 7.4%
U6 Unemployment: 12%
 
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CycloWizard

Lifer
Sep 10, 2001
12,348
1
81
14% unemployment is a bit of a steep expectation, because at that level it would make 2008 cake walk.
I hope I'm wrong... Time will tell.
Why now, if the UN don't have teeth in the last few years?
Don't forget 2011 is Iran year to be the head of OPEC (25% of world oil supply).
Now is the time because the US is almost "done" in Iraq and will have lots of firepower sitting at the ready, giving the UN teeth again. They might threaten to use them because NK is starting to worry some people and that's bad for stability. They might also threaten Iran because Iran will be more influential than usual this year - again bad for business because any stupidity from them is bad for the bottom line of the members of the security council.
 

dawp

Lifer
Jul 2, 2005
10,836
2,062
126
I pedict that very few of the predictions here will come to pass.
 

GTaudiophile

Lifer
Oct 24, 2000
29,773
11
81
Republicans refuse to raise the debt ceiling (as they should).
Democrats refuse to cut spending.
Ceiling is reached.
Government defaults.
Government collapses.
Anarchists and Libertarians rejoice!
 

Orignal Earl

Diamond Member
Oct 27, 2005
8,059
55
86
Conservatives's fear centers continue to grow, resulting in some of the best PnN threads ever.
Scream no no screammm no no
 

brencat

Platinum Member
Feb 26, 2007
2,170
3
76
Dow ends 2011 ~ 12500, driven primarily by increased inflation expectations.

Dollar index (DXY) remains stuck in the current 78 - 81 trading range.

Actual inflation picks up moderately. Fed does NOT raise interest rates or threaten to raise rates nor remove any extraordinary stimulus measures due to unemployment rate remaining high.

Current high unemployment rate barely budges for all of 2011

Govt is mired in useless 'investigations' of the Fed, and of excess spending during Obama's first 2 years. Meanwhile, supposedly 'gridlocked' Congress deficit spends at an epic level (the only compromise between Dems and Repubs that will occur is that both sides get ALL the spending they want passed).

Only 30% of Core i5 and i7 enthusiast users upgrade to Sandy Bridge in 2011, below expectations.
 

dullard

Elite Member
May 21, 2001
23,140
1,384
126
On rebound of what Industries?
A shorter list is to ask which industries are doing poorly. Companies are sitting on 1 trillion in cash since they have so much profit right now.

I don't think we'll hit 7.5% in 2011, but we certainly will be close to 8.5% by the end. On what industries? Manufacturing is up 17 months straight. Oil and commodoties are doing well. So are farms with record or near record prices. Airlines are now profitable. Autos are doing much, much better than in 2008. GDP has basically recovered to its pre-recession levels. About the only industry that really hasn't recovered is anything related to housing (building, banking, real estate, furnature, etc). Housing starts have been flat at a low level since Dec 2008. I don't see that recovering significantly in 2011, and it is about 20% of the economy, which is why I don't forsee 7.5% unemployment in 2011.
 
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dullard

Elite Member
May 21, 2001
23,140
1,384
126
My own predictions:

Dow rises slightly to 12000 in Dec 31, 2011. Unemployment slowly decreases, about 0.1% on average per month to 8.5% by Dec 2011. I have a prediction for the Dec 2011 CPI in the 220 to 228 range that I made a year ago that I see no reason to change (that is 1% to 3% inflation continues). Gold peaks, but the bubble doesn't quite burst until 2012. GDP grows to $13.65 trillion in 2005 dollars which will be an all-time high (but just a 2% annual growth from what we have now).
 
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Elias824

Golden Member
Mar 13, 2007
1,100
0
0
The U.S continues to deficit spend in huge numbers
people argue about obama care most of the year
The tea party passes little meaningful legislation
unemployment drops but only slightly, id guess around 8.5 as well
Julian Assange either disappears or has to face legal prosecution in the U.S
I predict dow 12,250 for the end of the year
Oil hits $105 a barrel
The U.S pulls out of Iraq at the end of 2011 like were supposed to
 

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