Dear Jeebus - Obama Up in Virginia already?

[Stoneburner]

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/...cain_46_surveyus_1.php

This is a shocking turnaround in a week. I thought VA would be turning along with NC but it shot right back into competition. SUSA is another reputable polling firm and their trend line is clear from last week where McCain was up.

Maybe IA, NM, CO is not obama's only route...

Also, Obama has an excellent ground game in VA and the dems have made major inroads and still have the model laid out by Webb and now Warner. most importantly, VA has a significant AA population that can be turned out.

 

[nageov3t]

are we going to get one of these any time there's a new poll out? heh.

 

[Stoneburner]

Originally posted by: loki8481
are we going to get one of these any time there's a new poll out? heh.

No, I'll lump some polls togther. I'm just using ProfJohn's model


Maybe I'll ask a mod for a state by state polling thread...

 

[Juddog]

Originally posted by: loki8481
are we going to get one of these any time there's a new poll out? heh.

Pretty much.

Hey mods - can we just get one polling thread and put a sticky on it?

 

[mshan]

Like Chuck Todd said, just watch which states the candidates keep returning to me if you want to know where the real battlegrounds are...

 

[lupi]

I think warner will probably get elected in va. As I said before, that still doesn't mean much for the presedential race.

 

[Stoneburner]

Originally posted by: lupi
I think warner will probably get elected in va. As I said before, that still doesn't mean much for the presedential race.

It would take a video of Warner molesting at least 3 farm an imals for him to lose his race.

 

[Vette73]

Originally posted by: lupi
I think warner will probably get elected in va. As I said before, that still doesn't mean much for the presedential race.

It means that mroe Dems/Warner fans will turn out and it will increase Obama's numbers. Also N.VA has turned the last several years and votes Dem a good deal now. One the the people that was supposed to be a front runner for Republican Prez ticket lost to a new Dem, Webb.

VA is very much in play. I moved from NC to VA and will not vote for 2008McCain.

 

[Stoneburner]

More numbers, some bad for Obama.

These are all Rasmussen state polls.

http://www.realclearpolitics.c...latestpolls/index.html

They are the ones on top of course.

First, Ras has Virginia Tied, which is up for Obama from their last poll. the SUSA and RAS difference is explained pretty much by party weighing.

Ras also has PA tied which is a BAD result for Obama. Very bad, down 2 points which is close to insignificant. However, I just don't see PA turning this time around. A tie game in PA means an obama victory in the state. We'll see what the other pollsters have to say as well.

The worst news for Obama has to be the Colorado poll which shows Mccain up 2.

FL and Ohio are up less for mccain than other polls. I don't know what Obama is doing but these states stay tantalizingly close for him but he needs to break through in one to make McCain really sweat and to offset the potential loss of WI or MI.

ALSO: Ras tends to 1) have an inhouse lean towards republicans and 2) be less likely to change drastically according to national trends. I also just saw they tend to reweight their party mix EVERY WEEK so trends are not easy to measure either.

Overall, a mixed bag for Obama.

 

[lupi]

Originally posted by: Marlin1975

Originally posted by: lupi
I think warner will probably get elected in va. As I said before, that still doesn't mean much for the presedential race.

It means that mroe Dems/Warner fans will turn out and it will increase Obama's numbers. Also N.VA has turned the last several years and votes Dem a good deal now. One the the people that was supposed to be a front runner for Republican Prez ticket lost to a new Dem, Webb.

VA is very much in play. I moved from NC to VA and will not vote for 2008McCain.

There is a lot of not so happy feelings going on about the current Dem gov'nar which could backlash in november and is probably one of the reasons he didn't get the vp pick. Outer DC has always had a large number of blue voters, not sure how much more they can squeeze out of that area.

 

[WhipperSnapper]

The Palin afterglow will wear off sooner or later and "Let Them Eat Cake" McCain with his talk about how the economy is fundamentally strong (as the DOW drops 500 points and financial turmoil roils the nation) should push Obama's poll numbers back up.

 

[fskimospy]

Originally posted by: WhipperSnapper

The Palin afterglow will wear off sooner or later and "Let Them Eat Cake" McCain with his talk about how the economy is fundamentally strong (as the DOW drops 500 points and financial turmoil roils the nation) should push Obama's poll numbers back up.

Apparently it already is ending, CNN's poll of polls shows McCain's post convention bounce evaporating. They have Obama and McCain exactly tied again, I guess we'll see where it goes from here.

 

[QED]

Originally posted by: Stoneburner
More numbers, some bad for Obama.

These are all Rasmussen state polls.

http://www.realclearpolitics.c...latestpolls/index.html

They are the ones on top of course.

First, Ras has Virginia Tied, which is up for Obama from their last poll. the SUSA and RAS difference is explained pretty much by party weighing.

Ras also has PA tied which is a BAD result for Obama. Very bad, down 2 points which is close to insignificant. However, I just don't see PA turning this time around. A tie game in PA means an obama victory in the state. We'll see what the other pollsters have to say as well.

The worst news for Obama has to be the Colorado poll which shows Mccain up 2.

FL and Ohio are up less for mccain than other polls. I don't know what Obama is doing but these states stay tantalizingly close for him but he needs to break through in one to make McCain really sweat and to offset the potential loss of WI or MI.

ALSO: Ras tends to 1) have an inhouse lean towards republicans and 2) be less likely to change drastically according to national trends. I also just saw they tend to reweight their party mix EVERY WEEK so trends are not easy to measure either.

Overall, a mixed bag for Obama.

Rasmussen has an inhouse lean towards Republicans? I don't think so. When other pollsters were reporting McCain having a +4 or +5 lead over Obama last week, Rasmussen had the race tied, or McCain +1.

Why? Rasmussen had, up to this point in time, been using a 3-month old survey of party identity to weigh his polls-- which was slightly tilted towards the Democratic side. It's no suprise that pre-Palin, Democrats were enthused and Republicans were (mostly) hiding in shame.

Rasummen's poll numbers change less drastically because of the party weighing he uses-- a candidate gains ground mostly by increasing his support from his base, but Rasmusen's poll heretofor did not account for a candidate's base growing.

He has recently lowered the Democratic weight and slightly increased the Republican weight to better account for party identity post-convention-- although he still believes (from recently polling) that Democrats outnumber Republicans and so his polls will still reflect that weighing.

 

[Stoneburner]

Yeah, and palin's favorability has declined RAPIDLY the last 5 days according to the research 2000 polls for Kos. VA is definitely back in play. I do wonder why obama hasn't closed the deal in PA yet though. I hope he's using Rendell to target the right areas.

Again, this is a mixed bag with odd movement. I would have expected PA to solidify rather than VA move back towards obama. I also think we need more NM polling NOW.

Here's my rough assessment of various states.

FL/OH - Leaning mccain 3-5 points.
PA, MI, WI, MINN - leaning obama 1-2 points maybe 3

CO, VA, NM, NV - essentially tied.

 

[mshan]

Ultimately, you have to ask yourself:

Has Palin McLame '08 been able to definitively and consistently break through that poll of polls average over time of 45% ceiling McLame has faced in the past?

(economic models predicting presidential elections start at 46%, before adjustments for growth, inflation, and good news, I think)

 

[Stoneburner]

Originally posted by: QED

Originally posted by: Stoneburner
More numbers, some bad for Obama.

These are all Rasmussen state polls.

http://www.realclearpolitics.c...latestpolls/index.html

They are the ones on top of course.

First, Ras has Virginia Tied, which is up for Obama from their last poll. the SUSA and RAS difference is explained pretty much by party weighing.

Ras also has PA tied which is a BAD result for Obama. Very bad, down 2 points which is close to insignificant. However, I just don't see PA turning this time around. A tie game in PA means an obama victory in the state. We'll see what the other pollsters have to say as well.

The worst news for Obama has to be the Colorado poll which shows Mccain up 2.

FL and Ohio are up less for mccain than other polls. I don't know what Obama is doing but these states stay tantalizingly close for him but he needs to break through in one to make McCain really sweat and to offset the potential loss of WI or MI.

ALSO: Ras tends to 1) have an inhouse lean towards republicans and 2) be less likely to change drastically according to national trends. I also just saw they tend to reweight their party mix EVERY WEEK so trends are not easy to measure either.

Overall, a mixed bag for Obama.

Rasmussen has an inhouse lean towards Republicans? I don't think so. When other pollsters were reporting McCain having a +4 or +5 lead over Obama last week, Rasmussen had the race tied, or McCain +1.

Why? Rasmussen had, up to this point in time, been using a 3-month old survey of party identity to weigh his polls-- which was slightly tilted towards the Democratic side. It's no suprise that pre-Palin, Democrats were enthused and Republicans were (mostly) hiding in shame.

Rasummen's poll numbers change less drastically because of the party weighing he uses-- a candidate gains ground mostly by increasing his support from his base, but Rasmusen's poll heretofor did not account for a candidate's base growing.

He has recently lowered the Democratic weight and slightly increased the Republican weight to better account for party identity post-convention-- although he still believes (from recently polling) that Democrats outnumber Republicans and so his polls will still reflect that weighing.

Your question about 1) was answered by 2)



and yes, Ras has an inhouse lean for republicans. It's been discussed ad nauseum elsewhere. find what nate at 538 has to say.

 

[ebaycj]

Originally posted by: Stoneburner
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/...cain_46_surveyus_1.php

This is a shocking turnaround in a week. I thought VA would be turning along with NC but it shot right back into competition. SUSA is another reputable polling firm and their trend line is clear from last week where McCain was up.

Maybe IA, NM, CO is not obama's only route...

Also, Obama has an excellent ground game in VA and the dems have made major inroads and still have the model laid out by Webb and now Warner. most importantly, VA has a significant AA population that can be turned out.

Guess what ?

Palin's no longer the pretty new girl on the block. People are now seeing her for the power hungry, corrupt, fundamentalist, isolationist, complete fucking zero of a VP candidate that she is.

 

[mshan]

George W. Bush in a dress?

 

[her209]

Originally posted by: mshan
George W. Bush in a dress?

And lipstick!

 

[mshan]

Has to be tutored on foreign policy: check

Ideologically driven: check

Vindictive and prone to putting cronies in government positions of responsibility: check


What's not to like?

"I'm Sarah Palin and I approved this message" :roll:

 

[OneOfTheseDays]

I don't put much stock in the day-to-day polls, they seem to be way too volatile at this point. I will say this though, if Obama cannot improve his standings nationally and in the battle-ground states by the end of this week he is in some trouble. With the economy going bad and the media outlash at McCain's blatant lies he has everything going for him.

I hate to say this, but the economy going so bad is the one thing that can turn the attention away from Palin and back to the issues where he has always done well in comparison to John McCain. I am glad that we are no longer discussing lipstick on a pig though. It's high time both of these candidates start telling us what the hell they are going to do if they become President.

 

[uclaLabrat]

Originally posted by: OneOfTheseDays
I don't put much stock in the day-to-day polls, they seem to be way too volatile at this point. I will say this though, if Obama cannot improve his standings nationally and in the battle-ground states by the end of this week he is in some trouble. With the economy going bad and the media outlash at McCain's blatant lies he has everything going for him.

I hate to say this, but the economy going so bad is the one thing that can turn the attention away from Palin and back to the issues where he has always done well in comparison to John McCain. I am glad that we are no longer discussing lipstick on a pig though. It's high time both of these candidates start telling us what the hell they are going to do if they become President.

I disagree. I think the polls won't break either way until at least the first debate. I expect Obama to go up by 3-5 points then. Then the attack ads will turn into a deluge in the last two weeks of Oct. and the race will tighten yet again, and the final tipper will be whether or not Obama's ground game in voter registration will live up to the hype on Nov. 4th.

 

[OneOfTheseDays]

If what I hear is to be believed, Obama's ground game will be epic. We're talking unheard of new voter registrations.

 

[Pens1566]

Originally posted by: OneOfTheseDays
If what I hear is to be believed, Obama's ground game will be epic. We're talking unheard of new voter registrations.

Virginia and Ohio .....

 

[mshan]

Linwood Holton, former Republican governor of Virginia (and father in law of current governor Tim Kaine), endorsed Barrack Obama and is going to actively campaign in the state for him. :thumbsup: