Dear Jeebus - Obama up 12 in Iowa

[Stoneburner]

http://beta.desmoinesregister....913038&theme=IOWA_POLL

I would have expected some tightening in Iowa but apparently McCain's lack of engagement and his stand against ethanol (which is actually praiseworthy) is hurting him.

Obama is also still holding off McCain in Colorado and most likely NM though ras had mccain up 2. I think NM is actually Obama by at least 5 or so.

So all kerry states plus Iowa Plus Colorado Plus NM = win.

Obama is weathering an intense storm and is going into the next week with the wind at his back following McCain embarassing himself by lying and Palin embarassing McCain by not lying well.

 

[RedChief]

Theres also a poll showing McCain 20pts ahead in NC.

Without the details of the poll, there is no way to test its validity. I want to see how many registered Reps vs Dems they polled. If they polled 50% dem and 25% rep, then the poll is crap.

 

[nageov3t]

Obama's had an average of +9 in Iowa for awhile, this isn't super surprising.

 

[Stoneburner]

Originally posted by: RedChief
Theres also a poll showing McCain 20pts ahead in NC.

Without the details of the poll, there is no way to test its validity. I want to see how many registered Reps vs Dems they polled. If they polled 50% dem and 25% rep, then the poll is crap.

There were 2 polls showing leads of 15 plus in NC for McCain. That state may have been tipped beyond recovery for Obama.

The IA polls have shown consistent leads for Obama, and this poll has a relatively good reputation.

Obama has had very good news in the following states:

1. NH - very important, they used to like McCain but Obama's lead has grown. I think they may dislike McCain's new style

2. CO - having the dem convention probably helped

3. IA - keeping this state allows more possibilities in the electoral college


The not so good news is that MI, PA, and MN and WI have narrow leads for Obama. The not so bad news is that he has maintained leads there in key states despite the McCain bounce.


The potentially excellent news is that states like Wash and New Jerz have shown close polling which could tempt mccain into spending money there and still losing. Those states wont switch.


I don't think PA will switch, MI is also not good. WI or Minn i'm not so sure about. NH can still jump anytime, they are odd people there.

I think this election will be decided out west with CO , NV, and NM.

 

[CallMeJoe]

Originally posted by: Stoneburner
I think this election will be decided out west with CO , NV, and NM.

I think we'll have some idea what we're talking about come November. Until then. this is all just so much LippenFlappen

 

[QED]

Zogby has McCain ahead in PA by 5 points, ahead in OH by 6 points, aheady in VA by 6 points, ahead in FL by 10 points, ahead in CO by 2 points, ahead in NV by 7.5 points, and ahead in NH by 6 points.

Zogby has Obama ahead in NM by 1.5 points, MI by 5.5 points, and NC by 1.5 points.

There are a lot of head scratchers there-- McCain ahead of Obama in PA and NH by large margins, and Obama over McCain in NC? Very, very strange if true...

 

[Mani]

Originally posted by: QED
Zogby has McCain ahead in PA by 5 points, ahead in OH by 6 points, aheady in VA by 6 points, ahead in FL by 10 points, ahead in CO by 2 points, ahead in NV by 7.5 points, and ahead in NH by 6 points.

Zogby has Obama ahead in NM by 1.5 points, MI by 5.5 points, and NC by 1.5 points.

There are a lot of head scratchers there-- McCain ahead of Obama in PA and NH by large margins, and Obama over McCain in NC? Very, very strange if true...

Zogby Interactive polls are by far the least reliable polls available. They don't lean one particular way or the other, they are just horribly inaccurate.

 

[Stoneburner]

Originally posted by: Mani

Originally posted by: QED
Zogby has McCain ahead in PA by 5 points, ahead in OH by 6 points, aheady in VA by 6 points, ahead in FL by 10 points, ahead in CO by 2 points, ahead in NV by 7.5 points, and ahead in NH by 6 points.

Zogby has Obama ahead in NM by 1.5 points, MI by 5.5 points, and NC by 1.5 points.

There are a lot of head scratchers there-- McCain ahead of Obama in PA and NH by large margins, and Obama over McCain in NC? Very, very strange if true...

Zogby Interactive polls are by far the least reliable polls available. They don't lean one particular way or the other, they are just horribly inaccurate.

Exactly. If it says Zogby, just ignore it. If it says Zogby Interactive, laugh a little and then ignore it.

 

[Obsoleet]

Iowa is an Obama state. It will go to him no doubt. I live here. I remember cold calling independents to try to get votes for Ron Paul (my last hurrah helping out the GOP before I registered independent myself), and most of the time I basically got a response saying how much they were pissed off and were voting for Obama and that was that.

I can't say I blamed them. Enough so that I've joined them.

 

[OneOfTheseDays]

Obama needs to have a strong finish from here on out if he wants victory in November. He can't afford to slip up anymore than he has already.

He absolutely has to hold all of the Kerry states. Right now it looks like he will, there is talk PA may flip but I believe when election day comes the union vote will swing things his way and they will vote for the Democrat as they have in the last 4 elections.

Now if he holds the Kerry states he has several options to win the Presidency. If he grabs OH or FL it's all over. If he doesn't, he can still win. He must grab some combination of NM/CO/MN, all he either leads in right now or is tied in. I fully believe this race is still Obama's to lose. Make it a referendum on Bush and the last 8 years, and how we cannot afford 4 more years of the same failed policies and he wins. Get caught in the mud slinging dirt at Palin/McCain for their lies and you will lose Obama.

There is a reason Obama has yet to enter the pig pen with McCain, and it's precisely because if he turns into the angry blackman it will turn against him severely. His best bet is to rise above the fray.

 

[winnar111]

I don't know why this is news. He bought them off with ethanol.

 

[alphatarget1]

Originally posted by: winnar111
I don't know why this is news. He bought them off with ethanol.

QFT

 

[Bowfinger]

Originally posted by: alphatarget1

Originally posted by: winnar111
I don't know why this is news. He bought them off with ethanol.

QFT

QFSG.


(Quoted for sour grapes)

 

[CADsortaGUY]

Originally posted by: Obsoleet
Iowa is an Obama state. It will go to him no doubt. I live here. I remember cold calling independents to try to get votes for Ron Paul (my last hurrah helping out the GOP before I registered independent myself), and most of the time I basically got a response saying how much they were pissed off and were voting for Obama and that was that.

I can't say I blamed them. Enough so that I've joined them.

:roll: Oh look it's another socalled "indepedent" Ron Paul supporter ignoring reason and going to vote for someone completely opposite to what he stands for.


I swear you people are just libs trying to game the system...or maybe you are really that politically naive....

 

[CADsortaGUY]

Originally posted by: RedChief
Theres also a poll showing McCain 20pts ahead in NC.

Without the details of the poll, there is no way to test its validity. I want to see how many registered Reps vs Dems they polled. If they polled 50% dem and 25% rep, then the poll is crap.

Yep, that is extremely important in these polls. The Des Moines Ragister has been in the tank for Obama for quite some time and been lapdogs for the Democrat party of Iowa for ages. Their polls are constantly distorted and inaccurate.

That all being said, I have no doubt BHO is still leading in the polls here and has a pretty decent shot of winning here but it's no where near what this poll claims.

 

[Mani]

Originally posted by: CADsortaGUY

Originally posted by: Obsoleet
Iowa is an Obama state. It will go to him no doubt. I live here. I remember cold calling independents to try to get votes for Ron Paul (my last hurrah helping out the GOP before I registered independent myself), and most of the time I basically got a response saying how much they were pissed off and were voting for Obama and that was that.

I can't say I blamed them. Enough so that I've joined them.

:roll: Oh look it's another socalled "indepedent" Ron Paul supporter ignoring reason and going to vote for someone completely opposite to what he stands for.


I swear you people are just libs trying to game the system...or maybe you are really that politically naive....

RP massively differs with his own party on the two issues the party has been effectively running on for the past 6 years: national security and social issues. And republicans have absolutely no room to talk about small government with the bloated mess Bush and the GOP created.

 

[CADsortaGUY]

Originally posted by: Mani

Originally posted by: CADsortaGUY

Originally posted by: Obsoleet
Iowa is an Obama state. It will go to him no doubt. I live here. I remember cold calling independents to try to get votes for Ron Paul (my last hurrah helping out the GOP before I registered independent myself), and most of the time I basically got a response saying how much they were pissed off and were voting for Obama and that was that.

I can't say I blamed them. Enough so that I've joined them.

:roll: Oh look it's another socalled "indepedent" Ron Paul supporter ignoring reason and going to vote for someone completely opposite to what he stands for.


I swear you people are just libs trying to game the system...or maybe you are really that politically naive....

RP massively differs with his own party on the two issues the party has been effectively running on for the past 6 years: national security and social issues. And republicans have absolutely no room to talk about small government with the bloated mess Bush and the GOP created.

No where did I say the only other option was to vote McCain/ (R).

There are plenty of other options but voting BHO is stupid if you really support what RP stands for.

 

[Bowfinger]

Originally posted by: CADsortaGUY
... The Des Moines Ragister has been in the tank for Obama for quite some time and been lapdogs for the Democrat party of Iowa for ages. Their polls are constantly distorted and inaccurate. ...

Bullshit! Prove it. That sounds like more sour grapes to me.

 

[CADsortaGUY]

Originally posted by: Bowfinger

Originally posted by: CADsortaGUY
... The Des Moines Ragister has been in the tank for Obama for quite some time and been lapdogs for the Democrat party of Iowa for ages. Their polls are constantly distorted and inaccurate. ...

Bullshit! Prove it. That sounds like more sour grapes to me.

Uhh... obviously you don't read the Ragister or pay attention to their polling practices.

And no, it's not "sour grapes" because frankly I couldn't care less about some Register poll or most polls at this point anyway. They are WAY too inaccurate and rarely present their demographic information along with the "results". If there were REAL reporting on these polls they would provide that information as it is entirely relevant to the outcome.

 

[Red Dawn]

Originally posted by: CADsortaGUY

Originally posted by: Mani

Originally posted by: CADsortaGUY

Originally posted by: Obsoleet
Iowa is an Obama state. It will go to him no doubt. I live here. I remember cold calling independents to try to get votes for Ron Paul (my last hurrah helping out the GOP before I registered independent myself), and most of the time I basically got a response saying how much they were pissed off and were voting for Obama and that was that.

I can't say I blamed them. Enough so that I've joined them.

:roll: Oh look it's another socalled "indepedent" Ron Paul supporter ignoring reason and going to vote for someone completely opposite to what he stands for.


I swear you people are just libs trying to game the system...or maybe you are really that politically naive....

RP massively differs with his own party on the two issues the party has been effectively running on for the past 6 years: national security and social issues. And republicans have absolutely no room to talk about small government with the bloated mess Bush and the GOP created.

No where did I say the only other option was to vote McCain/ (R).

There are plenty of other options but voting BHO is stupid if you really support what RP stands for.

So is voting for McCain and Mother Palin.

 

[CADsortaGUY]

Originally posted by: Red Dawn

Originally posted by: CADsortaGUY

Originally posted by: Mani

Originally posted by: CADsortaGUY

Originally posted by: Obsoleet
Iowa is an Obama state. It will go to him no doubt. I live here. I remember cold calling independents to try to get votes for Ron Paul (my last hurrah helping out the GOP before I registered independent myself), and most of the time I basically got a response saying how much they were pissed off and were voting for Obama and that was that.

I can't say I blamed them. Enough so that I've joined them.

:roll: Oh look it's another socalled "indepedent" Ron Paul supporter ignoring reason and going to vote for someone completely opposite to what he stands for.


I swear you people are just libs trying to game the system...or maybe you are really that politically naive....

RP massively differs with his own party on the two issues the party has been effectively running on for the past 6 years: national security and social issues. And republicans have absolutely no room to talk about small government with the bloated mess Bush and the GOP created.

No where did I say the only other option was to vote McCain/ (R).

There are plenty of other options but voting BHO is stupid if you really support what RP stands for.

So is voting for McCain and Mother Palin.

Read much? Sheesh. Obviously McCain isn't in a RPbot's interest because he/they don't stand for everything he does. But as noted(despite the diversions) voting BHO would be the height of stupidity or naivety for a RPbot. Their best option is to write in RP or vote Barr so their votes can be counted as a vote for "real" change instead of what the two parties are saying is "change".

 

[Bowfinger]

Originally posted by: CADsortaGUY

Originally posted by: Bowfinger

Originally posted by: CADsortaGUY
... The Des Moines Ragister has been in the tank for Obama for quite some time and been lapdogs for the Democrat party of Iowa for ages. Their polls are constantly distorted and inaccurate. ...

Bullshit! Prove it. That sounds like more sour grapes to me.

Uhh... obviously you don't read the Ragister or pay attention to their polling practices.

And no, it's not "sour grapes" because frankly I couldn't care less about some Register poll or most polls at this point anyway. They are WAY too inaccurate and rarely present their demographic information along with the "results". If there were REAL reporting on these polls they would provide that information as it is entirely relevant to the outcome.

Lots of jaw-flapping, but not one iota of factual evidence to back up your accusations. I've noticed that's pretty typical for "your types".

 

[Genx87]

McCain isnt popular in Iowa because he is publicly against corn ethanol.

 

[CADsortaGUY]

Originally posted by: Bowfinger

Originally posted by: CADsortaGUY

Originally posted by: Bowfinger

Originally posted by: CADsortaGUY
... The Des Moines Ragister has been in the tank for Obama for quite some time and been lapdogs for the Democrat party of Iowa for ages. Their polls are constantly distorted and inaccurate. ...

Bullshit! Prove it. That sounds like more sour grapes to me.

Uhh... obviously you don't read the Ragister or pay attention to their polling practices.

And no, it's not "sour grapes" because frankly I couldn't care less about some Register poll or most polls at this point anyway. They are WAY too inaccurate and rarely present their demographic information along with the "results". If there were REAL reporting on these polls they would provide that information as it is entirely relevant to the outcome.

Lots of jaw-flapping, but not one iota of factual evidence to back up your accusations. I've noticed that's pretty typical for "your types".

It's well established that the DMR under-samples (R) voters(oversample "independents and (d)), they also tend to sample metro areas more than rural which skews things. They seem to be able to get fairly close on caucus and interparty things but their sampling is usually off when it comes to broad-view politics. There is plenty of history to draw from here Bowfinger but as usual "your types" won't acknowledge the DMR bias. Surprise surprise...

 

[Bowfinger]

Originally posted by: CADsortaGUY

Originally posted by: Bowfinger

Originally posted by: CADsortaGUY

Originally posted by: Bowfinger

Originally posted by: CADsortaGUY
... The Des Moines Ragister has been in the tank for Obama for quite some time and been lapdogs for the Democrat party of Iowa for ages. Their polls are constantly distorted and inaccurate. ...

Bullshit! Prove it. That sounds like more sour grapes to me.

Uhh... obviously you don't read the Ragister or pay attention to their polling practices.

And no, it's not "sour grapes" because frankly I couldn't care less about some Register poll or most polls at this point anyway. They are WAY too inaccurate and rarely present their demographic information along with the "results". If there were REAL reporting on these polls they would provide that information as it is entirely relevant to the outcome.

Lots of jaw-flapping, but not one iota of factual evidence to back up your accusations. I've noticed that's pretty typical for "your types".

It's well established that the DMR under-samples (R) voters(oversample "independents and (d)), they also tend to sample metro areas more than rural which skews things. They seem to be able to get fairly close on caucus and interparty things but their sampling is usually off when it comes to broad-view politics. There is plenty of history to draw from here Bowfinger but as usual "your types" won't acknowledge the DMR bias. Surprise surprise...

More jaw flapping, more accusations, yet still not a single iota of factual evidence to support the claims. At one time it was "well established" that the Earth was flat. That wasn't true either. Have you got anything besides blind partisan opinions?