Dean now in third place in Iowa

[glenn1]

Looks like the wheels are coming off the Dean juggernaut

 

[chess9]

Didn't the Des Moines Register endorse Edwards? Hmm....

I'm not too sure this is very meaningful, but it is interesting.

Thanks for the post.

-Robert

 

[Red Dawn]

Originally posted by: glenn1
Looks like the wheels are coming off the Dean juggernaut

If the Dems want a chance in hell of taking back the White House this is good for them

 

[BaliBabyDoc]

Zogby disagrees

Kerry led Howard Dean 24.4 percent to 23.1 percent in the three-day tracking poll, with Richard Gephardt at 18.8 percent and John Edwards at 18.4 percent in the tightest Iowa caucus campaign in history.
The tracking poll of 502 likely caucus-goers was taken Thursday through Saturday and will continue for one more day, with the last poll published on Monday. It has a margin of error of 4.5 percentage points.

Hopefully, we won't have to tolerate Lieberman's shrill act much longer. Kucinich and Sharpton are at least entertaining.

 

[CADsortaGUY]

Originally posted by: chess9
Didn't the Des Moines Register endorse Edwards? Hmm....

I'm not too sure this is very meaningful, but it is interesting.

Thanks for the post.

-Robert

The Zogby poll of yesterday found them tightly bunched so any poll right now that shows any ranking suprises me. What people need to realize is that the caucus situation really comes down to people showing up to caucus. However, it's not a "one person - one vote" thing on Monday evening. Here is a little fact sheet on how the caucus works.

So anyway - polls are pretty meaningless when they are this bunched - especially since people actually have to get off their @ss and go sit somewhere for a couple hours just to have a percentage of one vote.

CkG

 

[Bowfinger]

Originally posted by: CADkindaGUY
The Zogby poll of yesterday found them tightly bunched so any poll right now that shows any ranking suprises me. What people need to realize is that the caucus situation really comes down to people showing up to caucus. However, it's not a "one person - one vote" thing on Monday evening. Here is a little fact sheet on how the caucus works.

So anyway - polls are pretty meaningless when they are this bunched - especially since people actually have to get off their @ss and go sit somewhere for a couple hours just to have a percentage of one vote.

CkG

Yep, and getting people off their butts is one area where Dean seems to excel. We've been visited twice by Dean supporters. His success at energizing and mobilizing supporters is unprecedented, at least in recent times. That's critical in a caucus.

One thing to remember about the caucuses is they are a public discussion with a public vote. You do not walk in and place a secret ballot. You sit and listen to your neighbors tell you who they support and why. You discuss strengths and weaknessess. You hear objections and counter-arguments. Groups of supporters negotiate and make deals.

Based on our experience, Dean may have an edge here too. Our second vist by a Dean supporter was Saturday afternoon. We decided to spend a few minutes explaining our concerns with Dean and strengths we see in his opponents. Maybe we were lucky, but this guy was extremely well prepared. He was articulate in explaining why Dean was the best choice, addressing each issue effectively. If this is typical for Dean supporters, they will be persuasive Monday night.

That doesn't ensure a Dean victory, however. According to a poll in this morning's paper, a full 47% of likely caucus goers acknowledge they may change their "vote" during Monday's caucus. Edwards and Kerry have gained a lot of momentum in the last two weeks. Their messages are resonating with Iowans. Kerry also has ground support to rival Dean's; Edward's is much weaker. Personally, we never saw a Kerry supporter, but perhaps that's because we are registered independents.

In any case, Monday should be quite a show. The outcome is still anyone's guess.

 

[CADsortaGUY]

Originally posted by: Bowfinger

Originally posted by: CADkindaGUY
The Zogby poll of yesterday found them tightly bunched so any poll right now that shows any ranking suprises me. What people need to realize is that the caucus situation really comes down to people showing up to caucus. However, it's not a "one person - one vote" thing on Monday evening. Here is a little fact sheet on how the caucus works.

So anyway - polls are pretty meaningless when they are this bunched - especially since people actually have to get off their @ss and go sit somewhere for a couple hours just to have a percentage of one vote.

CkG

Yep, and getting people off their butts is one area where Dean seems to excel. We've been visited twice by Dean supporters. His success at energizing and mobilizing supporters is unprecedented, at least in recent times. That's critical in a caucus.

One thing to remember about the caucuses is they are a public discussion with a public vote. You do not walk in and place a secret ballot. You sit and listen to your neighbors tell you who they support and why. You discuss strengths and weaknessess. You hear objections and counter-arguments. Groups of supporters negotiate and make deals.

Based on our experience, Dean may have an edge here too. Our second vist by a Dean supporter was Saturday afternoon. We decided to spend a few minutes explaining our concerns with Dean and strengths we see in his opponents. Maybe we were lucky, but this guy was extremely well prepared. He was articulate in explaining why Dean was the best choice, addressing each issue effectively. If this is typical for Dean supporters, they will be persuasive Monday night.

That doesn't ensure a Dean victory, however. According to a poll in this morning's paper, a full 47% of likely caucus goers acknowledge they may change their "vote" during Monday's caucus. Edwards and Kerry have gained a lot of momentum in the last two weeks. Their messages are resonating with Iowans. Kerry also has ground support to rival Dean's; Edward's is much weaker. Personally, we never saw a Kerry supporter, but perhaps that's because we are registered independents.

In any case, Monday should be quite a show. The outcome is still anyone's guess.

"We've been visited twice by Dean supporters.."

My wife is a registered democrat(here in Iowa they register you if you go in for a drivers license change - and she did it just because she likes being opposite me) and we haven't heard so much as a peep from ANY democrat - not the local dems or any of the candidates. But I as a registered Republican have gotten multiple mailings and a few phone calls from the Polk County GOP. I guess they all have their "target" areas.

CkG

 

[Dissipate]

It doesn't matter who makes it as the democratic candidate. Bush is going to win the election. The capture of Saddam Hussein, rising economy, lower taxes. The list goes on and on...

 

[Wolfdog]

OTOH those same exact things will polarize the working class to vote against Bush. No WOMD found at all, huge defitics, major jobloss still.. etc. the list goes on. It will be a tight race for the presidency this year. Hopefully for the better.

 

[josphII]

Originally posted by: Wolfdog
OTOH those same exact things will polarize the working class to vote against Bush. No WOMD found at all, huge defitics, major jobloss still.. etc. the list goes on. It will be a tight race for the presidency this year. Hopefully for the better.

keep dreaming

 

[heartsurgeon]

the "kiss of death" for Dean was when Algore announced his support for him....Mosley-Braun's support sealed the deal..