With nearly 45 days until Iowa Democrats head to precinct caucuses, support for the leading candidates differs among those who say they'll attend, and those who say they'll stay home.
According to a poll conducted by Iowa State University, former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean leads among people who "definitely" or "probably" will attend the Jan. 19 caucuses.
Dean was the first choice for 28.5 percent of those people, followed by Rep. Richard Gephardt, who had 20.9 percent. Sen. John Kerry placed third with 15.3 percent.
Among people who "might or might not" or "will not" attend the caucuses, roles are reversed. Gephardt was the non-attendees' first choice with 27.5 percent. Dean earned 22.1 percent of those respondents.
"What actually counts is people who show up," said Robert Lowry, an associate professor of political science who contributed to the study. "Remember, it's still two months off."
And candidates have plenty of people who haven't declared loyalty to anyone yet. Almost one-fourth of those who probably will attend the caucuses still are undecided on their first choice for the nomination, compared to 32 percent of those who likely won't attend.
The university's political science department, the Institute for Social and Behavioral Research and the College of Liberal Arts and Sciences sponsored the survey. Pollsters telephoned 761 randomly-chosen registered Democrats between Nov.10 and Nov. 25.
A Zogby poll released on Tuesday showed Dean leading in Iowa 26 percent to 22 percent, though he and Gephardt have swapped the top spot back and forth since September.
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