Dean Hachamovitch weighs in on Flash/HTML

[Pliablemoose]

I think you read everything except the last sentence.

So Apple and Microsoft both come out and say Flash isn't the future, and I agree with them, I also agree that Flash is all over the web and is a standard today.

WTF are we even arguing about? The time frame?

I could care less about the time frame, I can tell you it won't take 5 years. I suspect it'll be pretty much dead in 1 year.

And in case you missed it, the implementation of Flash on that N1 in the video is flipping horrible.

 

[Kev]

I still see realplayer on certain sites. If that pile of shit is still around, flash will never die.

 

[QueBert]

So Apple and Microsoft both come out and say Flash isn't the future, and I agree with them, I also agree that Flash is all over the web and is a standard today.

WTF are we even arguing about? The time frame?

I could care less about the time frame, I can tell you it won't take 5 years. I suspect it'll be pretty much dead in 1 year.

And in case you missed it, the implementation of Flash on that N1 in the video is flipping horrible.

Uh no Flash won't be dead in a year. I think as a primary wrapper for video it might be on life support. But HTML5 can't make an interactive site like Flash can. While a lot are pure crap, there are some remarkable sites that are almost all Flash based. I don't see any other solution besides that for them, some people argue Silverlight, but that's like Flash without the damn near 100% adoption rate. There's nothing that can make an interactive site as well as Flash. Flash isn't dying in even 5 years unless something huge comes along, and outside of for Video HTML5 isn't it.

 

[Pliablemoose]

I still see realplayer on certain sites. If that pile of shit is still around, flash will never die.

Yep, the smaller companies and eateries have Flash based stuff that they rarely update, it'll be around for a long time, but the majority of websites that are actively managed will make the transition rather quickly, as I posted, about a year and I suspect it'll be pretty well dead for most intents and purposes.

I was using an iPhone to trade stocks on eTrade a year or so ago, and they had done something to the website to make it unusable for iPhones, I got ahold of their web master fairly quickly who indicated they had no plans to make it iPhone friendly. I noticed they not only fixed their site within 2 weeks, they had an iPhone app out within a couple of months and their app for the iPad is pretty slick, it actually streams CNBC video.

 

[QueBert]

Yep, the smaller companies and eateries have Flash based stuff that they rarely update, it'll be around for a long time, but the majority of websites that are actively managed will make the transition rather quickly, as I posted, about a year and I suspect it'll be pretty well dead for most intents and purposes.

I was using an iPhone to trade stocks on eTrade a year or so ago, and they had done something to the website to make it unusable for iPhones, I got ahold of their web master fairly quickly who indicated they had no plans to make it iPhone friendly. I noticed they not only fixed their site within 2 weeks, they had an iPhone app out within a couple of months and their app for the iPad is pretty slick, it actually streams CNBC video.

Ok what about Flash games?? There are hundreds of new ones every day, I'd say Flash wise it's Games > Video > Web Sites for how often it's used. There are a ton of video sites but a SHIT TON of games.

 

[dguy6789]

I quoted that, but didn't emphasize it, because this is a tech forum and we're likely forward thinking users...

Honestly, do you think Flash will be as important to everyone in a year from now? 2 years?

I think the transition will come fairly quickly.

Considering that more people play games on Flash than play games on every other other platform, yes I do think it will be important for at least two more years. You don't go from being by far the #1 gaming platform to completely gone in a short time span.

Something a little ironic is the only people who use flashblock or say Flash sucks are geeky power user well informed types; the kind of people that would buy an Android phone. The kind of people that are more likely than anyone else to play a flash game are the casual everyday type of people, the kind most likely to have an iPhone.

 

[tatteredpotato]

HTML 5 browsers won't be widely enough used in a year to make flash obsolete. Until HTML adoption is similar to that of flash, flash will continue to be the common solution.

 

[Pliablemoose]

Considering that more people play games on Flash than play games on every other other platform, yes I do think it will be important for at least two more years. You don't go from being by far the #1 gaming platform to completely gone in a short time span.

Something a little ironic is the only people who use flashblock are geeky power user types; the kind of people that would buy an Android phone. The kind of people more likely than anyone else to play a flash game is the casual everyday type of person, the kind of person more likely to have an iPhone.

I know, I could give a rat's ass about Flash personally, I enjoy not having to deal with it on my phones while I surf the web.

 

[dguy6789]

If it has any chance of draining the battery more while casually web browsing or causing instability, there will almost certainly be an on/off switch for it. Android is all about options and customization after all.

 

[pm]

LOL, let's see what I'm missing in my use of an iPad or smartphone by not having Flash...

Don't play Farmville or any Flash games, don't visit any Flash dependent sites, hell, I'd been using a non Flash supporting smartphone for a year before someone pointed out they don't have Flash, I didn't even miss it or notice it's absence.

I have an iPhone, and my iPad shipped out Shenzen, China this morning. But despite my continuing Apple addiction, I personally would like Flash support and if it was available, I would use/enable it., and I'm frequently annoyed that some power struggle between two companies makes it hard for me to find information when I want it - like the telephone number of some sushi place in Denver last week.

For example:
Around Christmas, I was at Flat Irons mall in Broomfield, Colorado and their website was (still is?) in Flash so I couldn't view the store directory in their "interactive map" on my iPhone. (http://www.flatironcrossing.com/)

I was trying to find details about an apartment in London last night and their website was in Flash so I couldn't view it.

I wanted a list of the standard features on a 2010 Subaru Outback last month and the Subaru website was in Flash and wouldn't let me view anything on my iPhone (I sent them an unhappy email about that.. they said they are working on it). http://www.subaru.com/vehicles/outback/index.html

Same for checking the lift map at Winter Park ski resort, checking the menu of some restaurants, and a half dozen other things that have bugged me about not having Flash on my iPhone in the last 6 months. I recognize that plenty of people think it's a "don't care" - including, you, PliableMoose - but I find it annoying when I can't view the information that I want.

You can say it's about games and watching Hulu, but I don't really play a lot of Flash games (Desktop Tower Defense is fun though). But when I want information about something and I go there on my iPhone and see a little blue cube, it makes me irritated. Not irritated enough to sell my iPhone or to stop me from buying an iPad, but annoyed nonetheless.

 

[TheWart]

If it has any chance of draining the battery more while casually web browsing or causing instability, there will almost certainly be an on/off switch for it. Android is all about options and customization after all.

Yea, google is all about that. Which is why they are going to bundle flash with every chrome install.....yeaah.

 

[zerocool84]

I have an iPhone, and my iPad shipped out Shenzen, China this morning. But despite my continuing Apple addiction, I personally would like Flash support and if it was available, I would use/enable it., and I'm frequently annoyed that some power struggle between two companies makes it hard for me to find information when I want it - like the telephone number of some sushi place in Denver last week.

For example:
Around Christmas, I was at Flat Irons mall in Broomfield, Colorado and their website was (still is?) in Flash so I couldn't view the store directory in their "interactive map" on my iPhone. (http://www.flatironcrossing.com/)

I was trying to find details about an apartment in London last night and their website was in Flash so I couldn't view it.

I wanted a list of the standard features on a 2010 Subaru Outback last month and the Subaru website was in Flash and wouldn't let me view anything on my iPhone (I sent them an unhappy email about that.. they said they are working on it). http://www.subaru.com/vehicles/outback/index.html

Same for checking the lift map at Winter Park ski resort, checking the menu of some restaurants, and a half dozen other things that have bugged me about not having Flash on my iPhone in the last 6 months. I recognize that plenty of people think it's a "don't care" - including, you, PliableMoose - but I find it annoying when I can't view the information that I want.

You can say it's about games and watching Hulu, but I don't really play a lot of Flash games (Desktop Tower Defense is fun though). But when I want information about something and I go there on my iPhone and see a little blue cube, it makes me irritated. Not irritated enough to sell my iPhone or to stop me from buying an iPad, but annoyed nonetheless.

There's thousands of smaller sites that are Flash only and if you don't have Flash you're assed out. It seems lots of people forget that and those smaller sites will never get updated to HTML5 cus they're small.

 

[dguy6789]

Yea, google is all about that. Which is why they are going to bundle flash with every chrome install.....yeaah.

I'm confused by your post. It makes plenty of sense to bundle Flash with a browser. Everyone goes and installs Flash right after they install a browser anyway. There's never going to be a time where you won't be able to disable Flash on Chrome if you really wanted to.

 

[Pliablemoose]

And I can't believe it took you guys this long to post that top US manufacturer blurb, it appeared on Gizmodo hours ago! Its a nice stat, but its basically saying they beat Motorola and Palm, since all the top phone manufacturers (Nokia, RIM, HTC, LG, Sony-Ericsson, etc) are based outside the US.

How about 3rd largest smartphone manufacturer globally?

 

[dwell]

I'm confused by your post. It makes plenty of sense to bundle Flash with a browser. Everyone goes and installs Flash right after they install a browser anyway. There's never going to be a time where you won't be able to disable Flash on Chrome if you really wanted to.

I don't see how. I have the latest Chrome dev channel build here and I don't see any way to disable Flash specifically. I see a way to disable all plugins but not Flash specifically. Not saying there isn't a way, I just don't see it outside of add-ons.

EDIT: Found it.

 

[Deeko]

How about 3rd largest smartphone manufacturer globally?

Yea....3rd largest smartphone manufacturer sure is a whole lot different than largest phone manufacturer. Obviously smartphones are much higher profit per unit, but Nokia shipped about 108 million phones last quarter, compared to Apple's 8. That's roughly 100 million more phones, if math escapes you on this friday evening.

I don't know what any of this has to do with this thread though. I already said they've done very well in the smartphone market. Seriously, did you buy Apple stock again today or something? Your constant posting of irrelevant Apple stuff in this thread is troublingly trollesque.

 

[Pliablemoose]

Yea....3rd largest smartphone manufacturer sure is a whole lot different than largest phone manufacturer. Obviously smartphones are much higher profit per unit, but Nokia shipped about 108 million phones last quarter, compared to Apple's 8. That's roughly 100 million more phones, if math escapes you on this friday evening.

I don't know what any of this has to do with this thread though. I already said they've done very well in the smartphone market. Seriously, did you buy Apple stock again today or something? Your constant posting of irrelevant Apple stuff in this thread is troublingly trollesque.

Um, you made a point about world sales, I just posted a graphic.

I would like to remind you that this is not off topic, thanks for the insults though.

 

[Deeko]

Um, you made a point about world sales, I just posted a graphic.

I would like to remind you that this is not off topic, thanks for the insults though.

haha YOU brought up the irrelevant sales numbers, I pointed out that those numbers mean very little, and you then countered with even more irrelevant Apple numbers.

This entire thread you've been doing exactly what people complain about regarding Apple trolls - constantly, indignantly making references to Apple and/or how great they are that have little to nothing to do with this thread. When people point this out to you....you ignore it and cite something else Apple related.

Its also ironic that you point out this not being off-topic, when you cannot seem to stay on topic in the thread. You even started the thread, one would expect you to be aware of what is in the original post.

-Apple being the #1 US phone manufacturer has little impact on the worldwide market since there are so few major manufacturers in the US
-Apple being 3rd in worldwide smartphone sales doesn't really matter either in context of what the manager of Internet Explorer thinks about Flash
-You seem hell bent on proving how well Apple is doing in this thread, when it is both irrelevant to the thread & the fact that no one is denying it
-None of the above counters what has been brought up to you multiple times - that people use the internet signficantly more on computers than on mobile devices
-Also ironic that the cry of the Apple troll is "its not about you, its about the average user", yet you can't accept that the average use DOES use Flash, even if you don't

I don't know what the CEO of Adobe did to you to make you so upset over this topic, or if maybe Steve Jobs soothed you to sleep after whatever it was happened, but you need to calm down, sport.

 

[Pliablemoose]

haha YOU brought up the irrelevant sales numbers, I pointed out that those numbers mean very little, and you then countered with even more irrelevant Apple numbers.

This entire thread you've been doing exactly what people complain about regarding Apple trolls - constantly, indignantly making references to Apple and/or how great they are that have little to nothing to do with this thread. When people point this out to you....you ignore it and cite something else Apple related.

Its also ironic that you point out this not being off-topic, when you cannot seem to stay on topic in the thread. You even started the thread, one would expect you to be aware of what is in the original post.

-Apple being the #1 US phone manufacturer has little impact on the worldwide market since there are so few major manufacturers in the US
-Apple being 3rd in worldwide smartphone sales doesn't really matter either in context of what the manager of Internet Explorer thinks about Flash
-You seem hell bent on proving how well Apple is doing in this thread, when it is both irrelevant to the thread & the fact that no one is denying it
-None of the above counters what has been brought up to you multiple times - that people use the internet signficantly more on computers than on mobile devices
-Also ironic that the cry of the Apple troll is "its not about you, its about the average user", yet you can't accept that the average use DOES use Flash, even if you don't

I don't know what the CEO of Adobe did to you to make you so upset over this topic, or if maybe Steve Jobs soothed you to sleep after whatever it was happened, but you need to calm down, sport.

Thanks again

But perhaps your anger is misplaced and needs to be directed towards Apple's policies, (and if you don't own an iPhone or an iPad why do you even care?) and Microsoft's plans for IE9, which you likely don't use IE8, anyway...

As I've said many times, I straddle the fence, and my references to Apple's sales success somewhat indicate the direction consumers are going towards the extinction of Flash, and the momentum that is driving the web from Flash. Heck, the sales of Android up to now indicate consumer's don't really care that much about it in the mobile space.

I admit that that Flash is a standard today, but it is likely not going to be such a standard tomorrow.

In a perfect world, Jobs would allow Flash on Apple devices with the caveat that if would likely make Apple's devices unstable and less secure, but it's not a perfect world, it's one run by billionaires and massive corporations.

Adobe is years late with the promise of mobile Flash, and I'm tempted to bet they'll miss their self imposed June deadline for Android.

 

[Deeko]

I assume you're insinuating that I'm insulting you - since that's what you thanked me for in your last post. Unfortunately (and following a similar theme to the rest of the thread), I have yet to insult you here, so I'm not sure what you're getting at.

Good job once more not responding to the actual, relevant content of the thread, though.

 

[Pliablemoose]

I edited my post Deeko, and dude, I don't want to fight, time will prove me correct...

 

[theeedude]

Looks great, especially how you have to pan and zoom the screen use it. Steve Jobs has a point. If you have to write all your Flash stuff again to accommodate the screen difference, why use Flash? Also, performance looks abysmal, and this is friggin' Farmville not Quake 3.

Because it's easier to change a Flash program to accommodate different resolution than rewrite it from scratch as Apple is requiring, plus it will run on all devices that support Flash.

 

[theeedude]

If Flash sucks on Android, it doesn't put it at disadvantage against iPhone which has no Flash at all. If Flash rocks on Android, it puts Apple at a disadvantage. So Android is playing with house money in this Flash war.

 

[Pliablemoose]

If Flash sucks on Android, it doesn't put it at disadvantage against iPhone which has no Flash at all. If Flash rocks on Android, it puts Apple at a disadvantage. So Android is playing with house money in this Flash war.

Exactly, if Flash is a killer add on, the market will reward Android, and with the larger screened Android devices, it will make a signigicant difference, the 5" Streak is coming as well as a gazillion Android based tablets.

And there will be a gazillion cheap Android based tablets, soon...