Craps strategy: Three point molly or continuous betting?

[JEDI]

I'm going to Vegas. My favorite game is Craps. I usually do the 'Three point Molly' system. For those of you unfamilair w/it, it's:
a) Pass line with max odds, plus 2 Come bets/max odds. (Thus 3 points.)
b) Stop betting once you have a 3points.
c) If one of your points is hit, put in a Pass/Come Bet to get back to 3 points.
d) Rinse repeat

The avg shooter throws 8.5 times before they '7' out. This system limits your losses.

But the Wizard of Odds recommends:
"have a new bet on either the pass line or come on every throw, and to always take the maximum allowable odds."
http://wizardofodds.com/craps

The Wizard is a Mathematician that loves to gamble. He has a very good reputation at being a casino gaming expert.

His theory is that by always having a bet on the Pass/Come, you get $ back if a '7' hits. So in essence, your loses are offset a little by this small win.

worse case scenario:
You make 6 points w/o hitting any #'s, then '7' out.
if $5 min, 5x odds (thus $25 max odds), then 6(5+25) = 6(30) = $180. You win $5 from your Come bet with the '7'. 5/180 = 2.78%.
So your losses are substidized 2.78%, aka only lose $175 when betting $180.

The problem i have with this is that the avg person 7's out every 8.5 throws. Yes i know, thats avg. Some people can throw longer in which i make a profit. some people can 7 out alot sooner, thus i might only have 2 points in play when i lose.


Of the 2 systems i mentioned, which is better?

 

[Farang]

e) get drunk and make peace with the fact that i'll lose a hundred bucks

 

[GagHalfrunt]

I have to question the judgment of any person that understands that the best a system can do is to "limit your losses" and then decides to play anyway. Why are you asking? You're going to lose no matter what you do.

 

[JEDI]

Originally posted by: GagHalfrunt
I have to question the judgment of any person that understands that the best a system can do is to "limit your losses" and then decides to play anyway. Why are you asking? You're going to lose no matter what you do.

i play for entertainment.
but the less i lose, the more time i have enjoying it.

 

[BrunoPuntzJones]

When you going? I'll be there 24-26

 

[EagleKeeper]

Disclaimer: I have lived in the LV area for the past 10 years and have only played craps for the past 20

The 8.5 rolls average seems high from personal experience. The high average I would think is skewed by a large roll - I have seen 30-40 minute rolls.

Mainly I have seen 5-6 rolls as an average with usually one if not two repeat numbers.

Of the 8 rolls; I would also expect on average, at least one will be a 2/3/12 which negates your pass line bet.

By continually keeping the Come active, you may be able to have 5 of the 6 possible numbers in play; I would expect that having the max odds (3-10x) will hurt more than help when on the 4/10 when the lucky 7 comes around.

I myself usually play the DONT side and get two numbers out that are not a 6 or 8 with 2-4x odds. I am not greedy and usually come away with a couple of hundred over a session.
Bankroll is usally $40-50 for a $5 table. Yes, I get dirty looks by playing the black, but as long as I do not cheer for the loss, I usually get ignored at the end.


So overall, I feel your strategy is less agressive - if a streak happens, you can expand using winnings.

To agressive can easily wipe you out with a couple of bad rolls, especially if you use the place bet up front.

And stay away from the prop bets.



Now as a Nevada, resident I would say; bring a large bankroll; place crazy and make it so I do not have to worry about a state income tax - you can pay that for me.:evil:

 

[JS80]

I had a 15 minute roll where I went from $800 to $2800 last time i played craps in vegas. I did continuous betting and hit a couple hards.

 

[Kyteland]

Originally posted by: JS80
I had a 15 minute roll where I went from $800 to $2800 last time i played craps in vegas. I did continuous betting and hit a couple hards.

On May 23rd a lady in Atlantic City rolled for 4 hours 18 minutes, a new record. :Q

 

[spidey07]

Originally posted by: Kyteland

Originally posted by: JS80
I had a 15 minute roll where I went from $800 to $2800 last time i played craps in vegas. I did continuous betting and hit a couple hards.

On May 23rd a lady in Atlantic City rolled for 4 hours 18 minutes, a new record. :Q

:Q

I bet they had so much money leaving the table they had to bring chips in every hour.

Jedi - do the latter but keep it at 3 come bets. Also agree that the 8 per roll is ridiculously high from experience. Dealers normally say the average is 3-4 before they 7 out.

 

[JS80]

Originally posted by: Kyteland

Originally posted by: JS80
I had a 15 minute roll where I went from $800 to $2800 last time i played craps in vegas. I did continuous betting and hit a couple hards.

On May 23rd a lady in Atlantic City rolled for 4 hours 18 minutes, a new record. :Q

holy craps!

 

[halik]

Uhhh I very much doubt he's a mathematician if he's playing craps.

If you want the best odds, go play 1 deck blackjack. Casino advantage is only like 0.05% and if you hop on a full table you can adjust your basic strategy based on what you see on the table.

 

[Mani]

Originally posted by: JEDI
I'm going to Vegas. My favorite game is Craps. I usually do the 'Three point Molly' system. For those of you unfamilair w/it, it's:
a) Pass line with max odds, plus 2 Come bets/max odds. (Thus 3 points.)
b) Stop betting once you have a 3points.
c) If one of your points is hit, put in a Pass/Come Bet to get back to 3 points.
d) Rinse repeat

The avg shooter throws 8.5 times before they '7' out. This system limits your losses.

But the Wizard of Odds recommends:
"have a new bet on either the pass line or come on every throw, and to always take the maximum allowable odds."
http://wizardofodds.com/craps

The Wizard is a Mathematician that loves to gamble. He has a very good reputation at being a casino gaming expert.

His theory is that by always having a bet on the Pass/Come, you get $ back if a '7' hits. So in essence, your loses are offset a little by this small win.

worse case scenario:
You make 6 points w/o hitting any #'s, then '7' out.
if $5 min, 5x odds (thus $25 max odds), then 6(5+25) = 6(30) = $180. You win $5 from your Come bet with the '7'. 5/180 = 2.78%.
So your losses are substidized 2.78%, aka only lose $175 when betting $180.

The problem i have with this is that the avg person 7's out every 8.5 throws. Yes i know, thats avg. Some people can throw longer in which i make a profit. some people can 7 out alot sooner, thus i might only have 2 points in play when i lose.


Of the 2 systems i mentioned, which is better?

I find it depends completely on the shooter. Some just have 'it', some don't. That said, I've had a lot of success doing it the wizard's way (keep adding new come bets).

 

[Mo0o]

If you grind it out to such a fine system it become so mechanical you might as well just play slots

 

[JEDI]

Originally posted by: spidey07Jedi - do the latter but keep it at 3 come bets. Also agree that the 8 per roll is ridiculously high from experience. Dealers normally say the average is 3-4 before they 7 out.

continuous, but only 3 come bets? so 4 points (passline + 3 come)?

so basically a 4point Molly?

Why 4?

 

[JoPh]

went to atlantic city this weekend and tried out what i thought was the three point molly system.

$5 table. ended up +$160.

i guess i did something. dunno if i did the system right.

 

[GodlessAstronomer]

Gamblers are fucking retards. Seriously.

 

[Baked]

Originally posted by: GodlessAstronomer
Gamblers are fucking retards. Seriously.

Shut your mouth!

 

[JS80]

Dropped $500 this weekend in two sessions, the first session 10 minutes, the second session ~90 minutes. Of course some yahoo redneck from TX comes to the table and ONLY plays the field and the horn eleven ($10 bets) and hits eleven three fucking times in five minutes and leaves the table.