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Covid is slamming India, a worst nightmare

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MtnMan

Diamond Member
Jul 27, 2004
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Let's not lose sight of how bad the US has faired during COVID. Yes, India is getting hammered hard, and their healthcare infrastructure is crumbling.

The US is fairing better now, but never lose sight of the number of cases/deaths thanks to the foothold COVID got in this country thanks to Trumps mental illness and lack of action. He knew it was bad, he is recorded saying that in January 2020, yet he refused to act, probably due to his inability to manage, and his mental illness causing him to not give a fuck how many died.

India has a huge population, over 4 times the US population. Yet the US has almost 3 times the number of dead. On a per-capita basis the US death toll is 1,774 per million and India is 152 per million, over 11 times greater.

The US will reach 600,000 dead probably this summer. We still have over 5,000 dying every week from COVID.
 

pmv

Diamond Member
May 30, 2008
8,196
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Let's not lose sight of how bad the US has faired during COVID. Yes, India is getting hammered hard, and their healthcare infrastructure is crumbling.

The US is fairing better now, but never lose sight of the number of cases/deaths thanks to the foothold COVID got in this country thanks to Trumps mental illness and lack of action. He knew it was bad, he is recorded saying that in January 2020, yet he refused to act, probably due to his inability to manage, and his mental illness causing him to not give a fuck how many died.

India has a huge population, over 4 times the US population. Yet the US has almost 3 times the number of dead. On a per-capita basis the US death toll is 1,774 per million and India is 152 per million, over 11 times greater.

The US will reach 600,000 dead probably this summer. We still have over 5,000 dying every week from COVID.
Partly true - except I wouldn't attach so much significance to those per-capita figures. The US has probably been much better at ascribing Covid deaths correctly - a lot of people will have died of it in India and not been counted as such. Probably won't know the true toll in either country for some time yet.

On the other hand, the US has huge advantages over India, being much wealthier (able to afford more health care, and to vaccinate everyone) and far lower population-density, with people far less crammed together in less crowded living situations, so should have done much better than it did.

And, of course, there's a lot that Trump and Modi have in common, in terms of attitudes and actions.

I suspect in the longer-run those intrinsic advantages of the US will have won out, over the short-term disaster that was Trump.
 
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Zorba

Diamond Member
Oct 22, 1999
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Perhaps. Though the testing issue is really only relevant to case numbers, not death numbers. For those who die in hospitals, they get tested prior to death.

What would affect the death numbers is hospital overcrowding preventing people from getting treated so they die at home and never get tested. That is clearly going on there, but to what extent is, for now, anyone's guess.
Also with overwhelmed hospitals, everything becomes more deadly than normal. Heart Attacks are probably near 100% fatal without hospitals, for example.
 
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MtnMan

Diamond Member
Jul 27, 2004
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^ I don't trust the US numbers either. The excess deaths figures from each country will reveal the impact in terms of deaths.
The long haul damages will take a decade to visualize.
Absolutely. We know that the FL governor tried to ban the hospitals from reporting numbers. How many republican state governors didn't get caught trying to fudge the numbers? For a period Trump forced all numbers to be reported to the WH and not the CDC. He interfered with what the CDC could do and say from the very beginning.
 

MtnMan

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Jul 27, 2004
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Also with overwhelmed hospitals, everything becomes more deadly than normal. Heart Attacks are probably near 100% fatal without hospitals, for example.
Hospitals were overwhelmed in south Texas at one point, likely came very close in NYC.

And a lot of people died simply because they were too scared to seek help in true medical emergencies, even if hospitals were not overwhelmed. Tough out the chest pains vs. the sure COVID death in a hospital.

And Trump is still killing people today with his minions of stupid followers and their anti-mask, it's a hoax stupidity.
 
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skyking

Lifer
Nov 21, 2001
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Hospitals were overwhelmed in south Texas at one point, likely came very close in NYC.

And a lot of people died simply because they were too scared to seek help in true medical emergencies, even if hospitals were not overwhelmed. Tough out the chest pains vs. the sure COVID death in a hospital.

And Trump is still killing people today with his minions of stupid followers and their anti-mask, it's a hoax stupidity.
I posted about one of them in another thread, a 40 something who drank the koolaid till it killed him this Tuesday.
 
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Zorba

Diamond Member
Oct 22, 1999
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Hospitals were overwhelmed in south Texas at one point, likely came very close in NYC.

And a lot of people died simply because they were too scared to seek help in true medical emergencies, even if hospitals were not overwhelmed. Tough out the chest pains vs. the sure COVID death in a hospital.

And Trump is still killing people today with his minions of stupid followers and their anti-mask, it's a hoax stupidity.
I personally know of two older people that were sent straight to Hospice with COVID right around the US peak. Our hospitals were overfull, we were doing triage, we were just lying about it.
 
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skyking

Lifer
Nov 21, 2001
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I know, there was triage going on. The public was blissfully unaware of how close we sailed to the brink. We could tell the idiots but they never listen.
My wife is in the business and had to arrange for spare refrigerated trailers. Nobody wants to hear that though.
 
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MtnMan

Diamond Member
Jul 27, 2004
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I know, there was triage going on. The public was blissfully unaware of how close we sailed to the brink. We could tell the idiots but they never listen.
My wife is in the business and had to arrange for spare refrigerated trailers. Nobody wants to hear that though.
Exactly, we didn't burn bodies in the streets for the simple reason we had refrigerated trucks, and they could be hidden behind the hospitals.
 

Linux23

Lifer
Apr 9, 2000
11,140
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I know, there was triage going on. The public was blissfully unaware of how close we sailed to the brink. We could tell the idiots but they never listen.
My wife is in the business and had to arrange for spare refrigerated trailers. Nobody wants to hear that though.
I wasn't. I was admitted to the hospital in Mid March 2020. At that time they had Covid and Non-Covid patients on the same dam floor. The nurses always stopped in my room to get cool because I hacked the A/C system (so sorry for my room mate freezing), and I felt bad because they had to wear this horrible PPE that was sweaty as hell.

If this Orange wise and beautiful woman (sorry mods, this guy pisses me off so much), had taken this seriously, everything should have been shutdown for 2-3 weeks to get this thing under control. Now we have over 500K dead, probably like 1 million, plus the collateral damage due to not having access to critical care.

Now my dad is gone (83 years old, all alone in a hospital), and this Orange FUCK is still whining about the American people voting him out of office!!!!!!!

"Orange wise and beautiful woman" - The filters changed this.

"Orange C*nt" is exactly what I expressed.
 
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Muse

Lifer
Jul 11, 2001
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If this Orange wise and beautiful woman (sorry mods, this guy pisses me off so much), had taken this seriously, everything should have been shutdown for 2-3 weeks to get this thing under control. Now we have over 500K dead, probably like 1 million, plus the collateral damage due to not having access to critical care.

Now my dad is gone (83 years old, all alone in a hospital), and this Orange FUCK is still whining about the American people voting him out of office!!!!!!!
"...wise and beautiful woman" had to have been a baddie word the Anandtech software morphed into a mega-euphemism. Yeah, you are really pissed, and I say righteously. "The wrath of the lion is the wisdom of god." - William Blake
 

hal2kilo

Lifer
Feb 24, 2009
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^ I don't trust the US numbers either. The excess deaths figures from each country will reveal the impact in terms of deaths.
The long haul damages will take a decade to visualize.
Excess death due to hospitals being overwhelmed, and not being able to support non-Covid cases is also out there.
 
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MtnMan

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brycejones

Lifer
Oct 18, 2005
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The CDC estimates there were 6 to 24 times more cases than reported.

That’s from July of last year citing data from before testing was truly ramped up in this country. I would assume the level of uncertainty has come way down since then.
 
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pmv

Diamond Member
May 30, 2008
8,196
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^ I don't trust the US numbers either. The excess deaths figures from each country will reveal the impact in terms of deaths.
The long haul damages will take a decade to visualize.
I don't trust either set of numbers as being complete, but, leaving aside political choices not to count deaths (which seems about equally likely with Trump and Modi), the US seems likely to have a better infrastructure in place for keeping track of such things just by default.

The excess death data that's come out so far seems to suggest that the US and Western Europe have been counting deaths about right (perhaps over- and under-counts cancelling out?) but South America and Eastern Europe have been missing huge numbers of deaths, to a factor of two or three. Haven't seen any such data for India yet.
 
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manly

Diamond Member
Jan 25, 2000
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That’s from July of last year citing data from before testing was truly ramped up in this country. I would assume the level of uncertainty has come way down since then.
The CDC recently updated the estimate; the estimated ratio is about 3.5 to 1:

Interestingly, they model about 85% symptomatic cases whereas I was under the impression it was more like a 60/40 split.
 

Zorba

Diamond Member
Oct 22, 1999
9,215
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Muse

Lifer
Jul 11, 2001
30,175
3,567
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FYI, that CDC article is way old and way out of date, and was looking at a time when they're was extremely limited testing.
Heard an estimate today that 35% of the US population has contracted covid-19.
 

MtnMan

Diamond Member
Jul 27, 2004
5,946
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FYI, that CDC article is way old and way out of date, and was looking at a time when they're was extremely limited testing.
That doesn't make it invalid. Did they ever "adjust" the numbers to include the under count. Those uncounted are still part of today's tally.
 
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pmv

Diamond Member
May 30, 2008
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That doesn't make it invalid. Did they ever "adjust" the numbers to include the under count. Those uncounted are still part of today's tally.

Not really sure what is being argued about here. Clearly some people have had COVID and never been officially diagnosed with it, but not sure why you are saying that matters.

I guess it does mean we (in every country) are a _bit_ closer to 'herd immunity' than is apparent...but still doesn't seem that we are all that close to it.
 

Muse

Lifer
Jul 11, 2001
30,175
3,567
126
Not really sure what is being argued about here. Clearly some people have had COVID and never been officially diagnosed with it, but not sure why you are saying that matters.

I guess it does mean we (in every country) are a _bit_ closer to 'herd immunity' than is apparent...but still doesn't seem that we are all that close to it.
If what I'm hearing is true, having antibodies from having been infected doesn't confer anywhere near the level of immunity as that from vaccinations. So, vaccination after infection makes sense, at least for many (They think just one mRNA shot, post infection, the infection acting like a first shot).
 

Muse

Lifer
Jul 11, 2001
30,175
3,567
126
Not really sure what is being argued about here. Clearly some people have had COVID and never been officially diagnosed with it, but not sure why you are saying that matters.

I guess it does mean we (in every country) are a _bit_ closer to 'herd immunity' than is apparent...but still doesn't seem that we are all that close to it.
Whoops! Looks like a real possibility we will NEVER ACHIEVE herd immunity! o_O

From today's NYTimes:


Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe

Widely circulating coronavirus variants and persistent hesitancy about vaccines will keep the goal out of reach. The virus is here to stay, but vaccinating the most vulnerable may be enough to restore normalcy.

"By Apoorva Mandavilli
May 3, 2021, 3:00 a.m. ET
Early in the pandemic, when vaccines for the coronavirus were still just a glimmer on the horizon, the term “herd immunity” came to signify the endgame: the point when enough Americans would be protected from the virus so we could be rid of the pathogen and reclaim our lives.

Now, more than half of adults in the United States have been inoculated with at least one dose of a vaccine. But daily vaccination rates are slipping, and there is widespread consensus among scientists and public health experts that the herd immunity threshold is not attainable — at least not in the foreseeable future, and perhaps not ever.

Instead, they are coming to the conclusion that rather than making a long-promised exit, the virus will most likely become a manageable threat that will continue to circulate in the United States for years to come, still causing hospitalizations and deaths but in much smaller numbers.

How much smaller is uncertain and depends in part on how much of the nation, and the world, becomes vaccinated and how the coronavirus evolves. It is already clear, however, that the virus is changing too quickly, new variants are spreading too easily and vaccination is proceeding too slowly for herd immunity to be within reach anytime soon."

Estimated share of adults who would

“definitely” or “probably” get the vaccine
Range is from 49% to 91%
key to NYTimes graphic.jpg

 
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pmv

Diamond Member
May 30, 2008
8,196
3,195
136
Whoops! Looks like a real possibility we will NEVER ACHIEVE herd immunity! o_O

From today's NYTimes:


Reaching ‘Herd Immunity’ Is Unlikely in the U.S., Experts Now Believe

Widely circulating coronavirus variants and persistent hesitancy about vaccines will keep the goal out of reach. The virus is here to stay, but vaccinating the most vulnerable may be enough to restore normalcy.

"By Apoorva Mandavilli
May 3, 2021, 3:00 a.m. ET
Early in the pandemic, when vaccines for the coronavirus were still just a glimmer on the horizon, the term “herd immunity” came to signify the endgame: the point when enough Americans would be protected from the virus so we could be rid of the pathogen and reclaim our lives.

Now, more than half of adults in the United States have been inoculated with at least one dose of a vaccine. But daily vaccination rates are slipping, and there is widespread consensus among scientists and public health experts that the herd immunity threshold is not attainable — at least not in the foreseeable future, and perhaps not ever.

Instead, they are coming to the conclusion that rather than making a long-promised exit, the virus will most likely become a manageable threat that will continue to circulate in the United States for years to come, still causing hospitalizations and deaths but in much smaller numbers.

How much smaller is uncertain and depends in part on how much of the nation, and the world, becomes vaccinated and how the coronavirus evolves. It is already clear, however, that the virus is changing too quickly, new variants are spreading too easily and vaccination is proceeding too slowly for herd immunity to be within reach anytime soon."

Estimated share of adults who would

“definitely” or “probably” get the vaccine
Range is from 49% to 91%

You left the key off of that map.
Interesting to see how much it (inversely) correlates with Trump votes.

1620048705195.png
 
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