• Guest, The rules for the P & N subforum have been updated to prohibit "ad hominem" or personal attacks against other posters. See the full details in the post "Politics and News Rules & Guidelines."

Covid is slamming India, a worst nightmare

Page 2 - Seeking answers? Join the AnandTech community: where nearly half-a-million members share solutions and discuss the latest tech.

Moonbeam

Elite Member
Nov 24, 1999
67,153
3,856
126
Biden is the only reason this is not happening to us in the USA.

We need to release vaccine sales to India. At the very least, those Astra Zeneca vaccines sitting on ice need to go. That is the only hope in this disaster.
Well, that and the fact he is President here rather than the President of India. To vaccinate India is a bigger technological challenge than doing that here. I guess we should thank our lucky stars for our deep state knowledge of how to rig voting machines. Think of all the stupid conservative lives Biden accelerated vaccine supply will safe.

Now we need to help the rest of the world. It is the right thing to do.

I can’t think of a better way to get rid of nationalistic idiots like India’s President than to be alive to vote against him because some better off foreigner saved your life for no other reason than you were a fellow human being.
 

interchange

Diamond Member
Oct 10, 1999
7,481
2,158
136
Biden should take a page from Trump here and find some other way to get the vaccines to India and let the legal hurdles get sorted out later. Let the Republicans impeach him for saving millions of lives.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Leeea

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
72,144
22,730
136
Biden should take a page from Trump here and find some other way to get the vaccines to India and let the legal hurdles get sorted out later. Let the Republicans impeach him for saving millions of lives.
If I’m not mistaken we have released our entire extra supply of AZ vaccines, although I agree Biden was too slow in doing this.
 

interchange

Diamond Member
Oct 10, 1999
7,481
2,158
136
If I’m not mistaken we have released our entire extra supply of AZ vaccines, although I agree Biden was too slow in doing this.
I was referencing the posted AT article, but reading it more deeply it seems there are quality concerns that have not been cleared, thus it's not as simple as releasing stockpiled vaccine. Would like to see more authoritative action regardless of legal framework, but it's hard to say from my limited knowledge what options there actually are.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Leeea

Muse

Lifer
Jul 11, 2001
30,166
3,564
126
It's a great notion, the US producing enough vaccine to inoculate the whole world, but easier said than done. I don't know about the adenovirus vaccines (J&J and Astrozenica, and I suppose some of the others), but I've read about how difficult it is to scale up production of the mRNA vaccines. Read the blog link posted below and you will get some appreciation of why scaling this up is so difficult.

A snippet:
...it’s not possible to suddenly unleash dozens of companies to crank out the Pfizer/BioNTech and Moderna vaccines.
The process of producing an mRNA vaccine, in steps
--------------------------------------------------------------
Step One: Produce the appropriate stretch of DNA, containing the sequence that you need to have transcribed into mRNA. This is generally done in bacterial culture., 02/05/2021
Step Two: Produce that mRNA from your DNA template using enzymes in a bioreactor.
Step Three: Produce the lipids that you need for the formulation. Some of these are pretty common (such as cholesterol), but the key ones are very much not (more on this below).
Step Four: take your mRNA and your lipids and combine these into lipid nanoparticles (LNPs). I have just breezed past the single biggest technological hurdle in the whole process, and below you will learn why it's such a beast.
Step Five: combine the LNPs with the other components of the formulation (phosphate buffers, saline, sucrose and such) and fill those into vials.
Step Six: get those vials into trays, into packages, into boxes, into crates, and out the door into trucks and airplanes

This is from (read this for an understanding how the mRNA vaccines are produced and why it is quite difficult to upscale quickly):

https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2021/02/02/myths-of-vaccine-manufacturing
 
Last edited:
  • Like
Reactions: misuspita and Leeea

Roger Wilco

Senior member
Mar 20, 2017
959
575
136
This article suggests that over 500 million people in India have caught the virus. Wouldn't that mean, at the very least, that they are rapidly approaching herd immunity?


The oxygen situation is horrifying, and the government is punishing hospitals for requesting more.

"India’s federal government led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi has also been accused of targeting people for flagging a shortage of oxygen and hospital beds."

 
  • Like
Reactions: Leeea

brycejones

Lifer
Oct 18, 2005
20,562
12,224
136
This article suggests that over 500 million people in India have caught the virus. Wouldn't that mean, at the very least, that they are rapidly approaching herd immunity?


The oxygen situation is horrifying, and the government is punishing hospitals for requesting more.

"India’s federal government led by Prime Minister Narendra Modi has also been accused of targeting people for flagging a shortage of oxygen and hospital beds."

The population of India is ~1.36 billion. They are a very very long away from “herd immunity”. At the same time allowing it to run unchecked increases the likelihood of mutations that weaken the ability of our current vaccines to provide protection. Rapidly vaccinating the planet helps keep us all much safer in the long run.
 

Roger Wilco

Senior member
Mar 20, 2017
959
575
136
The population of India is ~1.36 billion. They are a very very long away from “herd immunity”. At the same time allowing it to run unchecked increases the likelihood of mutations that weaken the ability of our current vaccines to provide protection. Rapidly vaccinating the planet helps keep us all much safer in the long run.
If 500 million have had covid, that means 40% of the population now has some form of natural immunity. India's covid infection is growing exponentially (Delhi is posting 40% positivity rates now) and showing no signs of stopping. It's a full-blown nightmare and it's only getting worse, but I have to wonder (and hope) that natural immunity will play a very substantial beneficial role for India in the near future.

I'm not saying herd immunity is superior to immunization—that type of thinking is typically reserved for the crazies/assholes of the world. The best possible scenario would be all of India getting vaccinated regularly, but what are the odds of that actually happening any time soon?
 
  • Like
Reactions: Leeea

Moonbeam

Elite Member
Nov 24, 1999
67,153
3,856
126
It's a great notion, the US producing enough vaccine to inoculate the whole world, but easier said than done. I don't know about the adenovirus vaccines (J&J and Astrozenica, and I suppose some of the others), but I've read about how difficult it is to scale up production of the mRNA vaccines. Read the blog link posted below and you will get some appreciation of why scaling this up is so difficult.

A snippet:

The process of producing an mRNA vaccine, in steps
--------------------------------------------------------------
Step One: Produce the appropriate stretch of DNA, containing the sequence that you need to have transcribed into mRNA. This is generally done in bacterial culture., 02/05/2021
Step Two: Produce that mRNA from your DNA template using enzymes in a bioreactor.
Step Three: Produce the lipids that you need for the formulation. Some of these are pretty common (such as cholesterol), but the key ones are very much not (more on this below).
Step Four: take your mRNA and your lipids and combine these into lipid nanoparticles (LNPs). I have just breezed past the single biggest technological hurdle in the whole process, and below you will learn why it's such a beast.
Step Five: combine the LNPs with the other components of the formulation (phosphate buffers, saline, sucrose and such) and fill those into vials.
Step Six: get those vials into trays, into packages, into boxes, into crates, and out the door into trucks and airplanes

This is from (read this for an understanding how the mRNA vaccines are produced and why it is quite difficult to upscale quickly):

https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2021/02/02/myths-of-vaccine-manufacturing
By treating the viruses as a deadly worldwide threat due to the speed of contagion spread, the only sensible thing to do in my opinion is to prioritize the speed of vaccine creation and production. That is what I mean by a war footing. The difficulties in doing so are the very reasons that require a massive mobilization in my opinion. The technology seems to exist today for relatively quick creation of all manner of mega- factories. I simply think we we have created a worldwide civilization motivated by money, powerfully, but lacks a similar care for human life, and that should change. I think the US is best positioned financially and technically to lead such an effort. I think more viruses will come our way and rapid response for the future should start now.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Leeea and hal2kilo

Bitek

Diamond Member
Aug 2, 2001
9,390
3,454
136
If you can at all believe the numbers, it paints a scary scenario.

The absolute numbers are very high, but the per capita numbers are relatively low.

One could think "it's not that bad, overhyped", OTOH, if the per capita numbers get to a typical outbreak level, the absolute numbers will be staggering.

Seeing the pictures of how families are in the open trying to administer oxygen to dying (and highly infectious) family members with no PPE or protocol, it means this is likely to continue to spread like wildfire.

I had been surprised India had escaped a bad outbreak so far. No longer. This will be bloody. Situation completely out of control with a weak and corrupt govt.
 

brycejones

Lifer
Oct 18, 2005
20,562
12,224
136
If you can at all believe the numbers, it paints a scary scenario.

The absolute numbers are very high, but the per capita numbers are relatively low.

One could think "it's not that bad, overhyped", OTOH, if the per capita numbers get to a typical outbreak level, the absolute numbers will be staggering.

Seeing the pictures of how families are in the open trying to administer oxygen to dying (and highly infectious) family members with no PPE or protocol, it means this is likely to continue to spread like wildfire.

I had been surprised India had escaped a bad outbreak so far. No longer. This will be bloody. Situation completely out of control with a weak and corrupt govt.
The problem is at this point its impossible to get accurate numbers in India. They don't have the testing capacity and many people can't even see a doctor at this point. The stories from people I work with who have families there are horrifying and getting worse by the day.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Leeea

MtnMan

Diamond Member
Jul 27, 2004
5,938
4,169
136
It appears that we will not know the true numbers of lives lost and COVID-19 infections in India.
Or the US.

Granted there are deaths that are COVID related and not counted as such as they have just fallen through the cracks in the system.

It is also clear that numbers have deliberately misreported, especially in states with republican governors... looking at you Florida, Texas, and others.
 

manly

Diamond Member
Jan 25, 2000
8,834
435
126
If 500 million have had covid, that means 40% of the population now has some form of natural immunity. India's covid infection is growing exponentially (Delhi is posting 40% positivity rates now) and showing no signs of stopping. It's a full-blown nightmare and it's only getting worse, but I have to wonder (and hope) that natural immunity will play a very substantial beneficial role for India in the near future.

I'm not saying herd immunity is superior to immunization—that type of thinking is typically reserved for the crazies/assholes of the world. The best possible scenario would be all of India getting vaccinated regularly, but what are the odds of that actually happening any time soon?
The math on herd immunity from natural infections never suggests it's a sensible policy in the 21st century. In this example, if 500M Indians have contracted the virus, another 500M would have to do so for them to reach herd immunity. You are right that as more people have been infected, the velocity does naturally tend to slow down. Also, it's been well documented that the SA and Brazilian strains reinfect people who contracted the initial strain a year ago (they also reduce vaccine efficacy). I'm no expert, but we also don't know if 500M Indians have contracted the virus; the number could plausibly be 200-300M instead.

Furthermore, assuming you have an ideal health system that never runs out of ICU beds or oxygen, the natural herd immunity strategy likely results in about 1% of your entire population dying. That's fine for the other 99% but this is a staggering death toll. No country in the world has this ideal health system, so poorer countries would see a higher mortality rate.*

Right now, the best scenario for India is for everyone to stay home and isolated and wait for transmission to subside.

* Recall that about a year ago, a London university modeled that 2M Americans would die of Covid-19 if the government and its people did nothing at all to stop the disease's spread. Months later, Trump turned this around and claimed his leadership saved 2M lives. :rolleyes: Point is our country would have never been OK with doing nothing and watching millions of its people die from an infectious disease. I can't speak for death cultists though, who seem to be OK with a lot of things.
 

MtnMan

Diamond Member
Jul 27, 2004
5,938
4,169
136
In all seriousness, I'm sorry India. Thoughts and prayers
India is the worst case scenario horror film playing out in reality. And is now a juggernaut of suffering we really can't grasp.

However, "thoughts and prayers"... how utterly meaningless and useless. Prayers to whom?

They need doctors, oxygen, and vaccine, material things that actually do something.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Muse

ch33zw1z

Lifer
Nov 4, 2004
32,865
11,614
146
India is the worst case scenario horror film playing out in reality. And is now a juggernaut of suffering we really can't grasp.

However, "thoughts and prayers"... how utterly meaningless and useless. Prayers to whom?

They need doctors, oxygen, and vaccine, material things that actually do something.
Sure, I have none of those, so I offer what I can. Prayers can be given to what entity makes them feel better.
 

MtnMan

Diamond Member
Jul 27, 2004
5,938
4,169
136
Sure, I have none of those, so I offer what I can. Prayers can be given to what entity makes them feel better.
I'm sorry, that is such a damn cop out. Like telling a grieving family their child died because of some bullshit about "god needed him", he's in a better place, etc.

Reality? Somehow I suspect it only makes YOU feel better to say that.

It would much more effective to email Ted Cruz, or Madison Cawthorn, or Marjorie Taylor Greene asking them to support immediate aid to India.
 

ch33zw1z

Lifer
Nov 4, 2004
32,865
11,614
146
I'm sorry, that is such a damn cop out. Like telling a grieving family their child died because of some bullshit about "god needed him", he's in a better place, etc.

Reality? Somehow I suspect it only makes YOU feel better to say that.

It would much more effective to email Ted Cruz, or Madison Cawthorn, or Marjorie Taylor Greene asking them to support immediate aid to India.
Lol doubtful.
 
  • Haha
Reactions: manly

Zorba

Diamond Member
Oct 22, 1999
9,210
3,188
136
The math on herd immunity from natural infections never suggests it's a sensible policy in the 21st century. In this example, if 500M Indians have contracted the virus, another 500M would have to do so for them to reach herd immunity. You are right that as more people have been infected, the velocity does naturally tend to slow down. Also, it's been well documented that the SA and Brazilian strains reinfect people who contracted the initial strain a year ago (they also reduce vaccine efficacy). I'm no expert, but we also don't know if 500M Indians have contracted the virus; the number could plausibly be 200-300M instead.

Furthermore, assuming you have an ideal health system that never runs out of ICU beds or oxygen, the natural herd immunity strategy likely results in about 1% of your entire population dying. That's fine for the other 99% but this is a staggering death toll. No country in the world has this ideal health system, so poorer countries would see a higher mortality rate.*

Right now, the best scenario for India is for everyone to stay home and isolated and wait for transmission to subside.

* Recall that about a year ago, a London university modeled that 2M Americans would die of Covid-19 if the government and its people did nothing at all to stop the disease's spread. Months later, Trump turned this around and claimed his leadership saved 2M lives. :rolleyes: Point is our country would have never been OK with doing nothing and watching millions of its people die from an infectious disease. I can't speak for death cultists though, who seem to be OK with a lot of things.
We've likely had 700k+ die in the US and half the population still doesn't think it's a big deal, a percentage of those even think it's all fake or just a bad flu year.
 
  • Like
Reactions: Muse

ASK THE COMMUNITY