Covid epidemic blowing up right now in China

Muse

Lifer
Jul 11, 2001
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Looks to be worse than the worst days in the USA with hospitals jam packed. Whole units of all kinds getting infected, families, companies, hospital staff, jammed corridors. Officially only 7 deaths since ZERO COVID policy rescinded (i.e. the government is "officially" in denial), but morgues, etc. etc. overrun.

This is right now the lead article at The New York Times. This link should work for 14 days, i.e. until Jan. 10, 2023:

 
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sandorski

No Lifer
Oct 10, 1999
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What they tried to do with perpetual shutdown was holding all this back. However, why TF are they still needing these measures? Is the Medicine itself distrusted by the populace?

This is both what the Anti-Vaxer/"Trucker" say they fear about Authoritarianism, but at the same time proves that such drastic measures Work and are Necessary to prevent other issues. The difference being that, because now that We have good Vaccines and the deployment of them we no longer need such measures.
 

brycejones

Lifer
Oct 18, 2005
27,577
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It's a shit show. They were always going to have wind down their "zero covid" policy it just wasn't sustainable. But instead of using the last 2 years to get the best vaccines available into people's arms and prepare their health care system for the inevitable wave when the restrictions were lifted they did very little. So now there will be a huge price paid by their population in a very short period.
 

Muse

Lifer
Jul 11, 2001
38,363
8,675
136
What they tried to do with perpetual shutdown was holding all this back. However, why TF are they still needing these measures? Is the Medicine itself distrusted by the populace?

This is both what the Anti-Vaxer/"Trucker" say they fear about Authoritarianism, but at the same time proves that such drastic measures Work and are Necessary to prevent other issues. The difference being that, because now that We have good Vaccines and the deployment of them we no longer need such measures.
Read the article, they answer a lot of your questions.

A snip from it:

China was the first country to experience the panic of Covid when it emerged from Wuhan in 2019. Then, for the past three years, the country largely suppressed the virus with a costly mix of mass testing, strict lockdowns and border closures. The government could have used the time to bolster its health system by stockpiling medicine and building more critical care units. It could have launched a major vaccination drive targeting the millions of vulnerable older adults who were reluctant to receive a jab or booster. China did little of that, however, plunging into crisis mode again like in the early days of Wuhan.

The actual scale of China’s health emergency has been difficult to gauge — in no small part because the government did away with mass testing after abruptly lifting the country’s stringent “zero Covid” measures. The country’s inadequate vaccination levels as well as the lack of herd immunity have raised fears that death tolls could reach those seen earlier in the pandemic in places like the United States, Western Europe, and, more recently, Hong Kong.

Data released by local authorities in recent days seem to confirm that the virus is running rampant, with reports from several cities and provinces of hundreds of thousands of infections recorded daily. Questions also abound about the number of Covid-related deaths China is reporting because officials only count those who die from respiratory failure directly linked to a Covid infection. Officially, seven people have died from the virus since pandemic rules were relaxed on Dec. 7, a number that belies mounting anecdotal evidence from across the country — from the crush of hearses outside a crematory in Beijing to the overflow of yellow body bags at some funeral homes.

A Shanghai hospital predicted half of Shanghai’s 25 million residents would eventually be infected and warned its staff of a “tragic battle” in the coming weeks, according to a now-deleted statement the hospital posted last week on the social media platform WeChat.

“In this tragic battle, all of Shanghai will fall, and all the staff of the hospital will be infected! Our whole families will be infected! Our patients will all be infected!” the statement read. “We have no choice, and we cannot escape.”
 
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Muse

Lifer
Jul 11, 2001
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One of the more popular comments to the story:

JStuart
New York7h ago
What happens in China, doesn't stay in China. Look for COVID surges around the world in the months to come.

4 Replies 343 Recommended

Another:

John
New Jersey 6h ago
Chinese leaders clearly care more about outdoing the US than their own people. Also are too preoccupied with attacking a tiny island that doesn’t even belong to them. They couldn’t accept a superior vaccine product because it wasn’t made in China. China has been revealed to be a dysfunctional autocracy. How pathetic.

1 Reply 69 Recommend

A couple more:

Benjamin Teral
San Francisco, CA6h ago
This surge is coming here; wear your masks.

3 Replies 78 Recommend

Samsara
The West 7h ago
As China spirals out of control because of Covid (as appears more and more likely every day) what will happen to the country itself? What will happen to the rest of the world, especially those parts that depend on China for a myriad of reasons? It's an important question that requires immediate consideration and analysis.

72 Recommended
 
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fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
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One of the more popular comments to the story:

JStuart
New York7h ago
What happens in China, doesn't stay in China. Look for COVID surges around the world in the months to come.

4 Replies 343 Recommended
That’s a silly comment. China’s surge isn’t due to a new variant, it’s due to existing variants that the population isn’t vaccinated against and is immunologically naive to.

Of course it’s possible a new variant emerges from this mess in China that could cause trouble for other countries but at the moment this is China reaping the incredibly obvious consequences of their own choices.
 

WelshBloke

Lifer
Jan 12, 2005
31,408
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What they tried to do with perpetual shutdown was holding all this back. However, why TF are they still needing these measures? Is the Medicine itself distrusted by the populace?

This is both what the Anti-Vaxer/"Trucker" say they fear about Authoritarianism, but at the same time proves that such drastic measures Work and are Necessary to prevent other issues. The difference being that, because now that We have good Vaccines and the deployment of them we no longer need such measures.
China never had an exit strategy. Lockdowns are good for giving you a little time to get your shit together.
Paradoxically part of China's problems are because they are so good at having an enforced lockdown. This gave a wildly optimistic view that covid was not an issue there rather than it just being suppressed. Obviously when you lift those restrictions without having a solution you have a population with low herd immunity suddenly exposed to a much more contagious variety of virus. It's not good!
 

[DHT]Osiris

Lifer
Dec 15, 2015
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One of the more popular comments to the story:

JStuart
New York7h ago
What happens in China, doesn't stay in China. Look for COVID surges around the world in the months to come.

4 Replies 343 Recommended
Indeed, if I was a betting man, I'd put a tenner on the next omicron-scale variant emerging in the next month.
 

Muse

Lifer
Jul 11, 2001
38,363
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Indeed, if I was a betting man, I'd put a tenner on the next omicron-scale variant emerging in the next month.
I heard of one just a few days ago. It's taking over % confirmed in the US right now.

I'm not a betting man either, but I have my N95's at the ready and take one with me everywhere. I took my first covid-19 test yesterday, at home iHealth negative. I woke up with that little tingle at the top of the back of my mouth and I was "oh no." Went away by evening. Maybe I should test again today, but I'm not feeling sick. I am going out to be indoors with others tomorrow, though. Think I'll retest (Edit: I did... Negative).

Edit:

XBB Subvariant Now Accounts for Half of All COVID Cases in New England
The XBB variant, which accounted for only 11% of COVID cases in the region two weeks ago, now makes up 52.6%. That's far higher than the 18% of cases XBB accounts for across the entire U.S.


The omicron subvariants that have become dominant in recent months present a serious threat to the effectiveness of the new boosters, render antibody treatments ineffective and could cause a surge of breakthrough infections, according to a new study.

The XBB, BQ.1 and BQ.1.1 subvariants are the most immune evasive variants of COVID-19 to date, according to scientists affiliated with Columbia University and the University of Michigan.

The scientists, in a study published online earlier this month in the peer-reviewed journal Cell, found that these subvariants are "barely susceptible to neutralization" by the vaccines, including the new omicron boosters. The immune response of people who were vaccinated and had breakthrough infections with prior omicron variants also was weaker against the subvariants.
 
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K1052

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That’s a silly comment. China’s surge isn’t due to a new variant, it’s due to existing variants that the population isn’t vaccinated against and is immunologically naive to.

Of course it’s possible a new variant emerges from this mess in China that could cause trouble for other countries but at the moment this is China reaping the incredibly obvious consequences of their own choices.

Sort of amazing that China decided simply to not avoid an almost entirely avoidable catastrophe. They could have imported 2B doses of MRNA vaccine, licensed and mass produced Paxlovid, and shored up their medical system/supplies to deal with the surge but just decided not to bother.
 

Muse

Lifer
Jul 11, 2001
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Sort of amazing that China decided simply to not avoid an almost entirely avoidable catastrophe. They could have imported 2B doses of MRNA vaccine, licensed and mass produced Paxlovid, and shored up their medical system/supplies to deal with the surge but just decided not to bother.
Kind of puts the kibosh on any arguments that authoritarianism is effective governing philosophy.
 

brycejones

Lifer
Oct 18, 2005
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Sort of amazing that China decided simply to not avoid an almost entirely avoidable catastrophe. They could have imported 2B doses of MRNA vaccine, licensed and mass produced Paxlovid, and shored up their medical system/supplies to deal with the surge but just decided not to bother.
I think that "decision making" is because they officially went so hard on the "zero covid" policy that it basically put blinders on their public health system that preparing for any other contingency was being disloyal.
 
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fskimospy

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Sort of amazing that China decided simply to not avoid an almost entirely avoidable catastrophe. They could have imported 2B doses of MRNA vaccine, licensed and mass produced Paxlovid, and shored up their medical system/supplies to deal with the surge but just decided not to bother.
Sometimes people pretend to be confused about something and what they really mean is ‘that’s bad’ but I am genuinely confused as to what their plan here was. Were they pulling a Trump where they hoped it would magically disappear?
 

fskimospy

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Kind of puts the kibosh on any arguments that authoritarianism is effective governing philosophy.
Authoritarian regimes are often credited with the ability to ‘get shit done’ but I think the performance of authoritarian regimes over the last few years puts a stake in that. I remember coming to this realization when I read about Nazi Germany. The popular fiction is it was some sort of hyper-efficient fascist state but in reality it was a bureaucratic disaster mired in incompetence.

As I’ve said before China showed the same ineptitude here in being unable to effectively vaccinate its population. I genuinely do not understand a society where the government has no issue with welding you inside a building for a month but is unable to make you take a shot.
 

brycejones

Lifer
Oct 18, 2005
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Sometimes people pretend to be confused about something and what they really mean is ‘that’s bad’ but I am genuinely confused as to what their plan here was. Were they pulling a Trump where they hoped it would magically disappear?
I honestly believe they bought their own propaganda.
 

K1052

Elite Member
Aug 21, 2003
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Kind of puts the kibosh on any arguments that authoritarianism is effective governing philosophy.

Dictatorships are not famously flexible and responsive to changing conditions. A different thread has another excellent ongoing example.

I think that "decision making" is because they officially went so hard on the "zero covid" policy that it basically put blinders on their public health system that preparing for any other contingency was being disloyal.

I think is is at least a partial explanation. Not sure what the people at the top thought would happen here.

Sometimes people pretend to be confused about something and what they really mean is ‘that’s bad’ but I am genuinely confused as to what their plan here was. Were they pulling a Trump where they hoped it would magically disappear?

I am earnestly interested to know what Xi and the people around him expected. Maybe they just don't care and plan to lie their way through it.
 

Muse

Lifer
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As I’ve said before China showed the same ineptitude here in being unable to effectively vaccinate its population. I genuinely do not understand a society where the government has no issue with welding you inside a building for a month but is unable to make you take a shot.
Here we didn't especially make you take a shot unless your employer did, e.g. some cops, healthcare workers, transit, the military, I guess a few others. Myself, I rue all the anti-vaxxer stuff, but what can you do? Stupid people are stupid people. Many people are "blinded by science" as the saying goes.
 
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fskimospy

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Here we didn't especially make you take a shot unless your employer did, e.g. cops, healthcare workers, transit, I guess a few others. Myself, I kind of rue all the anti-vaxxer stuff, but what can you do? Stupid people are stupid people. Many people are "blinded by science" as the saying goes.
In NYC we made you take the shot if you worked for the city. (I personally put together the list of several thousand people to be suspended or fired for not doing so)

That’s the thing though, in the US we could never weld you inside your house. Fuck, people called it a ‘lockdown’ when you had to pick up your restaurant order curbside. I get why we can’t mandate vaccination here, my confusion is why ‘welding in house’ is less problematic than ‘force to get a shot’.
 

dullard

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May 21, 2001
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It's a shit show. They were always going to have wind down their "zero covid" policy it just wasn't sustainable. But instead of using the last 2 years to get the best vaccines available into people's arms and prepare their health care system for the inevitable wave when the restrictions were lifted they did very little. So now there will be a huge price paid by their population in a very short period.
Exactly, it was pretty well publicized early on* what the best strategy would be. That best strategy is to minimize the spread (distancing, lockdowns, work from home, masking, etc., whatever is best for your location) UNTIL sufficient people are vaccinated AND there are sufficient treatments (which includes sufficient hospital resources). But after that, minimizing the spread is no longer a viable long term solution.

People in charge thus need to change their policy mid-stream. And politicians find it nearly impossible to have a changing policy. Zero Covid works quite well, until it doesn't work. That concept of a changing proper actions is just baffling to so many people. While China celebrated the first successes, they forgot to do the rest.

* See posts such as this one from right near the beginning of the pandemic: https://tomaspueyo.medium.com/coronavirus-the-hammer-and-the-dance-be9337092b56
 

WelshBloke

Lifer
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Sometimes people pretend to be confused about something and what they really mean is ‘that’s bad’ but I am genuinely confused as to what their plan here was. Were they pulling a Trump where they hoped it would magically disappear?
I think thier plan was lockdown, effective vaccine, open up, like everyone else.
Except their vaccine turned out to be a bit crap and they didn't want to admit it and import any, but because their lockdowns suppressed the outbreak so well they ended up in a weird stasis.
 
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dullard

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That’s a silly comment. China’s surge isn’t due to a new variant, it’s due to existing variants that the population isn’t vaccinated against and is immunologically naive to.
China is dominated by BF.7. Not many people around the world have been exposed to that. Luckily, it is still an Omicron variant, so there is some partial immunity if you've been exposed before or vaccinated, but it isn't as good as if this were one of the earlier variants.

Of course it’s possible a new variant emerges from this mess in China that could cause trouble for other countries but at the moment this is China reaping the incredibly obvious consequences of their own choices.
Once a few hundred million people in China are infected, the chances of a significant new variant to develop there become quite high.
 
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Jaskalas

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Jun 23, 2004
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I think thier plan was lockdown, effective vaccine, open up, like everyone else.
Except their vaccine turned out to be a bit crap and they didn't want to admit it and import any, but because their lockdowns suppressed the outbreak so well they ended up in a weird stasis.

China needed to let COVID reign at a slow and steady pace, like the rest of us have been doing for the past 3 years.
Hasn't human history foretold the outcome of prolonged isolation leading to severe outcomes later? Thinking of Natives and Small Pox.
 

WelshBloke

Lifer
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China needed to let COVID reign at a slow and steady pace, like the rest of us have been doing for the past 3 years.
Hasn't human history foretold the outcome of prolonged isolation leading to severe outcomes later? Thinking of Natives and Small Pox.
I have no idea of the state of the Chinese health service and its ability to deal with an excess of people needing ventilation. It might just be that letting covid slowly spread there would just lead to a slow increase in fatalities.
 

fskimospy

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China is dominated by BF.7. Not many people around the world have been exposed to that. Luckily, it is still an Omicron variant, so there is some partial immunity if you've been exposed before or vaccinated, but it isn't as good as if this were one of the earlier variants.


Once a few hundred million people in China are infected, the chances of a significant new variant to develop there become quite high.
Several hundred million people (likely far more) have been infected by omicron over the last year without a new variant that is significantly different. I agree it’s very possible a new one will emerge here but the idea that new infections here are on a new scale than what we’ve seen before is not accurate.
 
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