COVID case count after vaccine distribution begins

[pete6032]

There is no doubt in my mind that, once vaccine distribution begins, we will see a measurable increase in daily case counts beyond the increase we are currently seeing. I am expecting following behaviors once vaccine distribution begins:

• People who did not get the vaccine yet going to stores and restaurants without a mask. When stopped, they will claim they don't need a mask because they "had the vaccine" and are immune.
  
  
• People getting the first dose of the vaccine and immediately going to the bar or immediately stopping social distancing even though they are not immune without the second dose.
  
  
• People not getting the second dose altogether because "one jab is fine."
  
  
• The distribution of fake vaccine certification cards on social media, similar to the fake "mask exemption" cards (1).
  
  
• Along with these behaviors above, a significant backlash against getting the vaccine, as people who only got the first dose end up getting COVID after stopping social distancing too early. There will also be numerous fake claims from vaccine recipients that the vaccine "gave me COVID" after the vaccine causes a mild flu-like reaction after the first dose. This flu-like will also lead people to not get the second dose because they will mistakenly believe the "had COVID" from the first dose and don't need a second dose.

In order to preempt these behaviors the federal government should be engaging in a public information campaign telling Americans about the vaccine, how quickly immunity onsets, and reinforcing suggestions to maintain social distancing even after a vaccine is available.

 

[K1052]

In order to preempt these behaviors the federal government should be engaging in a public information campaign telling Americans about the vaccine, how quickly immunity onsets, and reinforcing suggestions to maintain social distancing even after a vaccine is available.

Are we thinking the current administration has the interest or even capability to do something like this? I don't.

I imagine this ranks high on the agenda for Biden's public health appointees.

 

[Jaskalas]

In other words, it is winter. Holiday season means massive spread and increase in infection, as is already occurring. You are predicting rain when it is already pouring outside. Granted, the behaviors you described are both likely and are certain to contribute to some degree, but I think that may pale compared to the seasonal wave we are already neck deep in.