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Could the U.S. economy crash?

techs

Lifer
Every other country that has propped up its economy using massive deficit spending has eventually had its day of reckoning. The U.S. seems to not have had its dollar drop like other countries who massively borrowed and spent, at least not the free fall that other countries exhibited. Could it be that Chinas currency manipulation, coupled with the other Asian economies which are artificially keeping their currency weak to compete with China, will eventually come to an end. And soon? And is that the reason we have not seen the to be expected freefall of our currency due to massive trade deficits?
And what effect will that have on the U.S.?
And what about the massive outflow of manufacturing and technical jobs that has occurred over the last 10 years? If the global currency market returns to a free market could the U.S. be looking at 40 percent devaluation of its currency? But without the moderating influence of increased exports, since the U.S. has lost so much of its manufacturing base? Could a massive devaluation of the dollar not even help our agricultural exports, since most of them are already government subsidized?
And what about the price of oil? We have been relatively immune from the dollars fall already due to the fact oil is priced in dollars. If the dollar goes down would oil exporters drop the dollar? And would that mean an immediate increase in the price of oil by 40 percent? And would that increase in oil be double or tripled by the rise of the Chinese yuan which would make Chinas citizens (prisoners?) easily able to afford oil and gas due to their strong currency?

Could it be the massive deficit spending is hiding the virtual dismantlement of large sections of American manufacturing? Seems to me that with the dual impetus of deficit spending and the purchasing of our manufactiuring base by the Chinese may be hiding a rot in our economy and that we are really standing at a precipice.
 
You can thank Ben Bernake and the fed monteary control team for keeping us afloat with all these deficits.
The only way we can see a massive dollar devaluation is if the T-note holders all the sudden decided that U.S. is not as credit worthy as before, which would trigger Tnote and dollar reserve selloff. I don't think we'll see that happening anytime soon.
 
Yes the US economy is crashing, an obvious sign of this was the DOW hitting a new high yesterday...:roll:
 
We have the most diversified economy on the planet, so it's not going to crash. Something does need to be done about the deficity spending though. Also, when you complain about our enormous military budget, think about this. Countries have alot more faith in the T-Bills of a country with the most advanced and best funded war machine on the planet protecting it's borders.
 
Originally posted by: dmcowen674
Originally posted by: techs
Topic Title: Could the U.S. economy crash?

It will crash on Jan 22nd 2009 as soon as we have a Democrat President sworn in according to the resident Republicans.


Links?? Proof?? Ooops, nevermind, I'm asking Dave for proof, how silly of me.....
 
Originally posted by: dmcowen674
Originally posted by: techs
Topic Title: Could the U.S. economy crash?

It will crash on Jan 22nd 2009 as soon as we have a Democrat President sworn in according to the resident Republicans.

And for the past 6 years it was supposed to crash tomorrow according to you. I wouldnt take your word for it if you said the sun would rise tomorrow.
 
Originally posted by: Mxylplyx
Originally posted by: dmcowen674
Originally posted by: techs
Topic Title: Could the U.S. economy crash?
It will crash on Jan 22nd 2009 as soon as we have a Democrat President sworn in according to the resident Republicans.
And for the past 6 years it was supposed to crash tomorrow according to you. I wouldnt take your word for it if you said the sun would rise tomorrow.
Well technically the sun doesn?t ?rise? therefore Dave would be right for once.
 
Originally posted by: dmcowen674
Originally posted by: techs
Topic Title: Could the U.S. economy crash?

It will crash on Jan 22nd 2009 as soon as we have a Democrat President sworn in according to the resident Republicans.

We have seen what the Democratic congress has done to the fuel prices. About 40% higher than Nov '06
And the results of their 100 hr pledge. Lobbyists are still roaming the halls of Congress.
Carribean excursions at the government expense.

Now imagine what can happen if the Dems controls all of the government.

Pot meet kettle.

 
Didn't we have this same topic come up last year? and the year before that? and the year before that?
 
Everyone remembers the story of the boy who cried wolf, right?



Well remember that in the end, the wolf did actually come.
 
Not a problem. We are on a fairly new type of economy. Like the majority of it's citizens, the government has decided to stay on the Mastercard economy, let's master the possiblities of continued deficit spending....
 
Originally posted by: EagleKeeper
Originally posted by: dmcowen674
Originally posted by: techs
Topic Title: Could the U.S. economy crash?

It will crash on Jan 22nd 2009 as soon as we have a Democrat President sworn in according to the resident Republicans.

We have seen what the Democratic congress has done to the fuel prices. About 40% higher than Nov '06
And the results of their 100 hr pledge. Lobbyists are still roaming the halls of Congress.
Carribean excursions at the government expense.

Now imagine what can happen if the Dems controls all of the government.

Pot meet kettle.

Imagining..... imagining...... imagining Oh, the rich start paying their fair share and the DJIA tanks. None of GenerationX gets to retire at 50. Bummer.
 
Originally posted by: dmcowen674
Originally posted by: techs
Topic Title: Could the U.S. economy crash?

It will crash on Jan 22nd 2009 as soon as we have a Democrat President sworn in according to the resident Republicans.

Depends on how much you bleed them to death with social programs. On this subject, the President is merely a veto - it's Congress that makes these moves.
 
It's unlikely to crash but I would be surprised if we don't have a protracted slump in the next few years.

1) Wall Street will do OK as long as US companies with global markets remain competitive.

2) Transportation: Fuel costs will crimp a lot of US families. We will continue to shift to smaller and otherwise more fuel efficient vehicles. Diesel will help . . . if enough automakers enter the market, consumers buy them, and ULSD is widely available. Unfortunately, ethanol will make the situation worse and the corn pirates have a head start.

3) Healthcare: Medicare inflation is going to be shock to the myopic. Fewer families will be able to afford care which means more stress on Emergency Depts. Further, delayed care will lead to increased costs overall. It's going to be ugly and that's without considering the 75% increase in people with a BMI >50 in five years and 50% increase in people with a BMI >40. That's a lot of fat people . . . soon to be fat and sick . . . if not already.

4) Lack of intelligent investment in education: Will likely hurt the worst over the long-term that our educational system (and local, state, federal meddlers) is so bad that we have to import people to cover our technology jobs. Combined with the wholesale outsourcing of other jobs; we are looking at a bleak future for tens of millions of Americans.


So . . . no crash but definitely a fall.
 
Originally posted by: BaliBabyDoc
It's unlikely to crash but I would be surprised if we don't have a protracted slump in the next few years.

1) Wall Street will do OK as long as US companies with global markets remain competitive.

2) Transportation: Fuel costs will crimp a lot of US families. We will continue to shift to smaller and otherwise more fuel efficient vehicles. Diesel will help . . . if enough automakers enter the market, consumers buy them, and ULSD is widely available. Unfortunately, ethanol will make the situation worse and the corn pirates have a head start.

3) Healthcare: Medicare inflation is going to be shock to the myopic. Fewer families will be able to afford care which means more stress on Emergency Depts. Further, delayed care will lead to increased costs overall. It's going to be ugly and that's without considering the 75% increase in people with a BMI >50 in five years and 50% increase in people with a BMI >40. That's a lot of fat people . . . soon to be fat and sick . . . if not already.

4) Lack of intelligent investment in education: Will likely hurt the worst over the long-term that our educational system (and local, state, federal meddlers) is so bad that we have to import people to cover our technology jobs. Combined with the wholesale outsourcing of other jobs; we are looking at a bleak future for tens of millions of Americans.


So . . . no crash but definitely a fall.

I couldn't bear to read the usual mindless partisan rambling of the OP...but this post =
/Thread

We need to be re-investing in the education of our youth, not issuing H1B visas...we can't fight globalism and win. We can only play the game do the best we can.
 
The differrence is we still have a lot of money coming in and we can still make our debt Interest payments. A lot of countries that collapse, do so because they are communists or the state owns everything like a dictatorship.

Still there could come a point at which we might not be able to make the debt payment.

When you compare the USA to countries like Canada or Germany, or France, you may see that they have higher taxes than we do. We could still raise our taxes up higher and manage to get by.

The other sign of problems is when the lower class gets so poor they are like Surfs and they rise up and demand changes.
 
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