Could AMD go out like 3DFX?

[Wreckage]

So I was reading up on 3DFX lately and I'm starting to see some parallels with AMD.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3dfx_Interactive

Granted their were several things that killed 3DFX, some of which don't apply here. But 3 of the biggest ones do apply to AMD's current situation.
1.) Product delays (Bulldozer, Fusion, Northern Islands).
2.) Strong competition (Intel + NVIDIA)
3.) Debt (The threat of bankruptcy was what caused 3DFX to sell to NVIDIA)

I think 2011 will make or break AMD. They have to get Bulldozer and Fusion out the door and have them compete with Intel. They have to launch a new GPU architecture on a new process. They also need to get Global Foundries to start making GPUs. The single biggest thing they have to do is start making a profit. Not from lawsuits or selling off chunks of the company, but from their products. Right now all of that seems like an up hill battle.

I think there is a real possibility that by 2012 they will have to sell the company to avoid bankruptcy.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/does-amd-really-pose-a-risk-for-bankruptcy-2009-09-29





Knock off the troll threads


esquared
Anandtech Administrator

 

[MegaWorks]

Yes! I say that AMD will meet the same faith as 3DFX.

I vote for another thread.

 

[Rifter]

It could happen. However i think if it does its going to be because intel knocks them out of the CPU business not because Nvidia knocks them out of the GPU business.

As it sits right now i think Nvidia is playing catch up, they were late with fermi and now with the 6000 series about to launch they have no answer, that i know of, so it looks like they are still going to be behind.

That said until i see reputable benchmarks of the 6000 series cards they might not be as good as people seem to think they are going to be.

 

[blckgrffn]

AMD has been having issues for nearly as long as it has been a company.

I think they'll still be in the game five years from now.

Bank on that!

 

[ModestGamer]

1. AMD has a fiarly strong sales of OEM computer sales for desktop client stuff. Even with delays they will continue to seel there current products to OEM's for at least 1-2 more generations.
2. While people like to over exagerate the position of intel. They only beat AMD with one chip at 4X the cost.The next generation of intel chips might hurt but they can always lower pricing on current parts to compete against the lower levels of Intel product.
3. AMD is tight but they have enough comitment in product sales to move forward.


3dfx was a company headed nowhere.

So I was reading up on 3DFX lately and I'm starting to see some parallels with AMD.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/3dfx_Interactive

Granted their were several things that killed 3DFX, some of which don't apply here. But 3 of the biggest ones do apply to AMD's current situation.
1.) Product delays (Bulldozer, Fusion, Northern Islands).
2.) Strong competition (Intel + NVIDIA)
3.) Debt (The threat of bankruptcy was what caused 3DFX to sell to NVIDIA)

I think 2011 will make or break AMD. They have to get Bulldozer and Fusion out the door and have them compete with Intel. They have to launch a new GPU architecture on a new process. They also need to get Global Foundries to start making GPUs. The single biggest thing they have to do is start making a profit. Not from lawsuits or selling off chunks of the company, but from their products. Right now all of that seems like an up hill battle.

I think there is a real possibility that by 2012 they will have to sell the company to avoid bankruptcy.

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/does-amd-really-pose-a-risk-for-bankruptcy-2009-09-29

 

[mooncancook]

Maybe Intel will help keep AMD alive just to avoid being a monopoly. btw #1 and #2 applies to nVidia as well.

 

[Lonyo]

The comparison with 3DFX is a joke, I would hope. There are almost no real similarities between those two particular companies, and any similarities are general ones, not specific to those two players at all. They apply to most companies in most industries.
"Company A might go out of business because there is strong competition, it has debt, and new products have been delayed".
Those problems could/can/do occur to companies anywhere.
The specifics that apply to 3DFX don't really apply to AMD at all.

 

[Wreckage]

Maybe Intel will help keep AMD alive just to avoid being a monopoly.

Oh someone will buy AMD, for sure. There will still be competition.

The comparison with 3DFX is a joke, I would hope. There are almost no real similarities between those two particular companies, and any similarities are general ones, not specific to those two players at all. They apply to most companies in most industries.
"Company A might go out of business because there is strong competition, it has debt, and new products have been delayed".
Those problems could/can/do occur to companies anywhere.
The specifics that apply to 3DFX don't really apply to AMD at all.

Really? NVIDIA certainly had a product delay, but it's out now and it outperforms the competition. Also they have no debt. Intel...Not sure on any major delays, debt or real competition right now. Apple? Nope. Microsoft has no debt or real competition.

The 3 items I listed in my first post are direct parallels to 3DFX.

 

[Genx87]

One thing AMD did that will help them. They spun off their Fab. That is a huge money sink. Once they are able to fully divest themselves of it, they will be like Nvidia. Leaner and meaner.

 

[DaveSimmons]

nvidia's fx5800, laptop GPU mass deaths, and fermi 1.0 debacles show that either company can stumble, possibly badly enough to baankrupt themselves.

At that point it seems much more likely that they'd either reorganize or be acquired than disappear. The EU and DoJ are unlikely to let intel buy either AMD or nvidia, or let nvidia buy AMD.

 

[Madcatatlas]

ON behalf of all sensible Anandtech forum users. I urge moderators to step down on this type of posts which are clearly flamebait. Im not sure if the "report" button even works for this individual.

How can anyone, ANYONE, justify making a topic like this. How can someone like Wreckage who surely has posted, just this month in topics about AMD finally this year getting in the "black" (ie not red numbers), post crap like this.

Wrackage, if you cant take AMD/ATI being marketleaders, too bad for you. Most of us welcome the change.

and "reported" aswell.

 

[HurleyBird]

Wreckage, I'd be more worried about Nvidia right now (and did you seriously put down NI as a delay? Really? You do realize the TSMC issues affected both AMD and Nvidia, but AMD is the one still putting out next gen parts soon, right?). AMD's seems to be continually out-engineering and outpacing Nvidia right now. If anything, that's a *very* strong parallel to how Nvidia killed 3Dfx back in the day. When the next gen radeons come out we'll see exactly how much trouble Nvidia is in.

Also the rules of the game are fundamentally changing. Nvidia is being locked out of the low end of the market soon with the advent of Sandy Bridge, Llano, and Ontario. Those 'CGPU's are also going to cut into Nvidia's GPGPU efforts because it makes a lot of sense when most CPUs have a decent (but not Nvidia) GPUs to use and code for them.

As far as AMD goes, people have been predicting their demise for 20 years or so now, and they're still around.

 

[Kenmitch]

Yes! I say that AMD will meet the same faith as 3DFX.

I vote for another thread.

Venting is good for the community and is a good test for it also. Sometimes a person just wakes up grumpy and in an arguementive mood

ON behalf of all sensible Anandtech forum users. I urge moderators to step down on this type of posts which are clearly flamebait. Im not sure if the "report" button even works for this individual.

Kinda sucks how a person has to bite his toung while typing as sometimes it seems the board is more tolerant to some members statements than other!

Back on topic if you wanna call it that....Why would you try and use the past failure of one company to predict the unpredictable future of another more diverse company?

 

[evolucion8]

3DFX also died with an arrogancy problem, the same issue that nVidia's CEO is having, it will bring down nVidia like Hector Ruiz did to AMD. nVidia late to the game, behind of competition, desesperating dropping prices to stay competitive (Like the recent GTX 470 price drop), not having the fastest single card solution, I wouldn't be happy If I were an nVidia employee.

 

[SlowSpyder]

Really? NVIDIA certainly had a product delay, but it's out now and it outperforms the competition. Also they have no debt. Intel...Not sure on any major delays, debt or real competition right now. Apple? Nope. Microsoft has no debt or real competition.

The 3 items I listed in my first post are direct parallels to 3DFX.

I've seen you mention this a few times, but I don't think you can say that's reality. The GTX480 is faster than AMD's second fastest configuration or faster than their fastest single GPU. The GTX480 is not faster than AMD's 5970... that's not outperforming the competition. They slotted it to fit inbetween the 5870 and 5970.

But who's faster doesn't matter. Which is better for business is what matters for the purpose of this thread. So let's answer that. Which one had current gen out first creating revenue? AMD. Which one has had most price cuts? Nvidia. (In fact AMD's current parts are selling for very close to their released MSRP yet.) Which one costs more to build? Unknown for sure, but the smart money is on Nvidia's.

So AMD has a part that's been out longer, sold millions more parts with less price cuts and closer to their released MSRP. They also have a next gen on the horizon with no competition in sight.

Can AMD go out of business? Absolutely, it's not like they don't have some real struggles. But as someone else mentioned with Global Foundries spun off they appear to have shed a huge expense. Not to mention they just got a nice settlement from Intel (though still in debt). If anything I'd say they're in a much better position now then they have been in the last few years... maybe since the C2D release.

 

[CurseTheSky]

Back in the 3DFX and pre-3DFX days, the consumer technology market was a lot more like the Wild West than it is today. There were several CPU and GPU manufacturers (as well as sound cards, etc.), and people in general were much less informed about the capabilities and limitations of each company's product. These days, there are really only two ways to go for each market - Intel or AMD, and AMD or Nvidia. Having AMD simply go under is absolutely what we don't want to see.

I'm also under the impression that AMD is doing fairly well. They've had two very successful families of graphics cards, they tend to do well in the integrated an HTPC market (about as well as Nvidia, anyway), and their processors offer good, low-cost alternatives to Intel for the average consumer.

 

[Wreckage]

I've seen you mention this a few times, but I don't think you can say that's reality. The GTX480 is faster than AMD's second fastest configuration or faster than their fastest single GPU. The GTX480 is not faster than AMD's 5970... that's not outperforming the competition. They slotted it to fit inbetween the 5870 and 5970.

But who's faster doesn't matter. Which is better for business is what matters for the purpose of this thread. So let's answer that. Which one had current gen out first creating revenue? AMD. Which one has had most price cuts? Nvidia. (In fact AMD's current parts are selling for very close to their released MSRP yet.) Which one costs more to build? Unknown for sure, but the smart money is on Nvidia's.

So AMD has a part that's been out longer, sold millions more parts with less price cuts and closer to their released MSRP. They also have a next gen on the horizon with no competition in sight.

Can AMD go out of business? Absolutely, it's not like they don't have some real struggles. But as someone else mentioned with Global Foundries spun off they appear to have shed a huge expense. Not to mention they just got a nice settlement from Intel (though still in debt). If anything I'd say they're in a much better position now then they have been in the last few years... maybe since the C2D release.

NVIDIA has the fastest chip. Also Tegra seems to be ahead of the competition as well.

http://www.tgdaily.com/mobility-features/51311-nvidias-tegra-2-kicks-some-serious-mobile-ass

But if you really want to go down that road. NVIDIA sold more cards in the last 3 quarters since the 5xxx series was released than ATI did. They were also able to get a new architecture out the door, something that AMD has yet to do (an rumors are it's delayed thanks to 32nm being dropped).

However this has nothing to do with the topic. Nor has anyone really disputed the facts I have presented.