Copper, Brass metal shortages

[So]

Originally posted by: FoBoT

Originally posted by: redly1
According to New Scientist (May 26, 2007) the earth has an estimated 61 years supply of copper left.

uh, is it leaving? or do you mean as in a finite accessible amount available for current usage (i.e. wiring in existing buildings is "current usage" vs. too much in landfills or something)

I read that article (I'm a subscriber) and it was a terribly written, alarmist article that made virtually no sense and IIRC presented virtually no evidence either. Like most articles in NS, it was essentially an editorial.

 

[K1052]

Originally posted by: adairusmc

Originally posted by: K1052

Originally posted by: Modelworks

Originally posted by: BrunoPuntzJones
Ammo prices, in particular for .223 is up 20%+ just over the past month. Several agencies are short of ammo, with backlogs of months now, not just weeks.

That has to suck.
Imagine being a police officer and being told "You can only have half a clip of ammo"
Or something similar.

That is due to more demand for ammunition in general than base material costs.

With the war in the ME and general uneasiness over there it is all getting sucked up.

I have been buying all the 5.56 ammo I possibly can every time I see it in stock for about a year now.

Just picked up 4,000 rounds of sardine sealed wolf 5.56 from ammoman.com last payday. Might as well get it while I can.

The 5.56 seems to go in and out of stock so quickly these days. Even 7.62x39 is more expensive and does the same often times.

Even my 9000 round stockpile of Turkish 8mm Mauser ammo is now worth a lot more than the $3/70 rounds I paid for it.

 

[TheKub]

Originally posted by: legoman666
That's BS. It's not like we burn and use copper, it's just being used for more things. There is as much copper now as there was 100 years ago. Just need to make a greater effort to recycle it.

What do you think these crackheads are doing??? They are saving the environment!

 

[Tsaico]

In Riverside County, Ca. we have a problem with people doing that. It has held up some construction sites and also caused a lot of damage. We even had a guy who died after electrocuting himself by throwing a rope over a power line (he was thinking it was a telephone wire) and then using his truck to yank it down. There has also been cases of people's fences and guard rails on the freeways getting cut up and sold too.

We have to have photo id on all scrap metal transactions now too, with penalties for all parties involved. if the scrapper buys stolen metal and the police can prove where it came from, they are fined 1k for first incident, 2k for second and so on.

I don't know if it is a trend, but from what I understand, it at least is pretty easy cash, turn in a few hundred pounds of wire or something and make a few grand.

 

[Darwin333]

We use a ton of sheet metal in my business and copper prices have definately skyrocketed in the past decade. Many years ago when I worked in the sheet metal shop we got to sell the drop off and scrap and split the money between us (only 3 working in the shop back then). We where only getting 60ish cents for clean scrap copper back then. The price has stabilized somewhat recently but we have seen a huge increase in copper thefts in our area as well.

 

[JeffreyLebowski]

Well don't go hording pennies, since they aren't made of copper anymore.

 

[EGGO]

Enough to make bank when you go to the recycling center.

...have I said too much?

 

[KK]

We've have had alot of people stealing waveguide thats on our towers though out the country. There was one instance where the suspects were caught because they were driving thru some small western town pulling an open trailer filled with the copper waveguide and the cops nabbed them. Turns out it was some guy and his girlfriend.
We've also have had some people steal our power cable going to some of our stations. One instance, they cut the cable but evidently wasn't expecting any juice to be on it as there were arc marks around where they cut, but they didn't get any of the cable. Must have scared them off.

 

[Ruptga]

Originally posted by: vi_edit

Originally posted by: legoman666

Originally posted by: redly1
According to New Scientist (May 26, 2007) the earth has an estimated 61 years supply of copper left.

That's BS. It's not like we burn and use copper, it's just being used for more things. There is as much copper now as there was 100 years ago. Just need to make a greater effort to recycle it.

I bet there is a LOT more that goes to waste that you think. Just think about all of the copper that goes into phone and networking wires. It almost NEVER gets recyled. It's just not practical to do so. But it accounts for tons and tons of copper being used once you add it up.

Plus you have lots of copper going into disposable/throw away items that your average person either doesn't know how to recycle or doesn't care to.

Betcha in 100 years we've got mining operations in our old landfills.

 

[BillGates]

Blame shitty China.

 

[JulesMaximus]

Originally posted by: Modelworks
I just watched the news here in NC and there was a story first about how a gas leak last week was caused by someone stealing the copper gas lines.

They said that the local recyclers were all required to get photo id for scrap metal now.

After that they had a story about the local police departments, saying they had some ammunition that was on backorder for several weeks. Partly to do with the war in iraq but also due to lack of copper and brass.

So I go to the post office, theres a lady in line talking about how someone snatched her outdoor AC compressor and her neighbors and how they found both units at a local recycler after the police tipped them off that it was likely some crackheads after easy money.

Has the lack of copper really gotten that bad ? Recyclers here say they give $2.54 a pound for copper. And copper is one of the heavier metals.

Just curious if people in other parts of the country have heard anything about things like this.

That's a load of crap. If we're using up enough ammo in Iraq to cause a copper shortage then we're in real trouble if we ever have to fight another World War...or even against a major power.

No, the reason for the shortage is China. Much of our metal comes from other countries because they can manufacture it at a lower cost due to cheaper labor and fewer environmental restrictions. There is a huge demand for all sorts of construction materials in China and it is causing prices of raw materials to increase here.

I'd expect that eventually it will reach a point where it will cost less for us to return to producing steel and other metals used in construction. In the short term though I'd expect this trend to continue.

 

[NoShangriLa]

China consumers has recently consume more than what they regularly consume in the last few decades, therefore they are importing raw materials instead of exporting which drives up price.

www.kitco.com -- Copper historical chart.

Look at 5 years copper price chart vs. 5 years copper warehouse stocks level.

 

[Modelworks]

Originally posted by: JulesMaximus


That's a load of crap. If we're using up enough ammo in Iraq to cause a copper shortage then we're in real trouble if we ever have to fight another World War...or even against a major power.

I've done some reading and calling to 3 ammunition suppliers since I posted.
They all report shortages and not just from lack of metal.
I was told that any ammunition under contract goes first to the government because thats what the contracts require.

If we did enter another war , we would have problems.
Its just like any other war we were in, look back to previous world wars.
Shortages of everything from flour and sugar to gasoline and medical supplies.

I didn't realize it had gotten that bad with just the war in iraq and regular usage of copper/brass , but it apparently is getting bad.

As for importing copper.
Why ? We have the largest copper mine in the world in utah.
http://www.kennecott.com/

And several other very large copper mines in the USA.

Which worries me more.
If we have so many sources for copper and its in short supply, thats not good.

Some fun facts about copper:

# One ton of ore from Kennecott's Bingham Canyon Mine will yield roughly 12 pounds of refined copper.
# Copper is the only metal other than gold that has natural color. Other metals are either gray or white.
# Copper does not corrode, rust, or damage easily.
# Copper use goes back over 10,000 years and archeologists have unearthed copper drainpipes from as far back as 3,500 BC, that are still in good condition.
# Pennies today contain only about 2.5% copper.
Reason: The value of a coin cannot be more than the cost to make it. So the U.S. Mint makes each penny from a slug of zinc with a layer of copper electroplated onto it.
# The Statue of Liberty is covered with 200,000 pounds of copper sheeting.
# Some of the name panels recently installed at Ellis Island are made of copper from Kennecott's Bingham Canyon Mine.
# One of the famous Dead Sea Scrolls, found in a cave in Israel, is made of copper. This unique scroll does not contain religious writings, but rather the clues to an undiscovered treasure of gold and silver.
# In January 2000, the US Mint began production of the new "Golden Dollar Coin" which is made of 88.5% copper.

# The Statue of Liberty is covered with 200,000 pounds of copper sheeting.

hrm, at current pricing thats about 5-600,000.00
I wonder....
nah.

 

[BrunoPuntzJones]

Yeah the ammunition issue isn't really a cost problem, it's production (though brass prices have increased quite a bit).

ATK makes the bulk of ammo IIRC.

Companies under ATK:

Lake City - Current 100% capacity for military production
CCI
Speer
Blazer
Lawman
Federal
American Eagle

They used to dump XM-855 and XM-193 to the civilian market, which are rounds that don't make the QC cut to be sent to the military, but they've even stopped that now.

 

[BoberFett]

Originally posted by: vi_edit

Originally posted by: legoman666

Originally posted by: redly1
According to New Scientist (May 26, 2007) the earth has an estimated 61 years supply of copper left.

That's BS. It's not like we burn and use copper, it's just being used for more things. There is as much copper now as there was 100 years ago. Just need to make a greater effort to recycle it.

I bet there is a LOT more that goes to waste that you think. Just think about all of the copper that goes into phone and networking wires. It almost NEVER gets recyled. It's just not practical to do so. But it accounts for tons and tons of copper being used once you add it up.

Plus you have lots of copper going into disposable/throw away items that your average person either doesn't know how to recycle or doesn't care to.

But thanks to the magic of the free market, rising prices will make it worth it to recycle copper, thereby keeping the price at equilibrium.