Consumer Spending in U.S. Rises, Incomes Jump on Obama's Stimulus Efforts

[charrison]

Originally posted by: bamacre

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: bamacre

Originally posted by: Evan
when the next boom occurs sometime in the next 1-2 years?

When do you predict that boom's bust to happen?

As to the OP, people said the same thing during the bubble. We're not improving our economy, we're just selling out our long-term for the short term. We don't need more bubbles and busts, we need a healthy, stable economy. Of course, that's what the Fed was supposed to give us, and instead we get the opposite, an economic roller coaster.

There were booms and busts before the fed was around and they will continue to occur. The economy is cyclical and will continue to be so.

Certainly, and government gave us central bank-like policies before we had an actual central bank. But these massive booms and busts are not a natural phenomenon of the market.

While the fed played a role in the latest boom(keeping interest rates too low for too long) they were not the only player in the housing boom/bust.

And they had nothing to do the dot com boom as that was largely fueled by private money.

 

[nergee]

In 99 the Greenie threw money at the Y2K scare. That helped fuel the Dot-Com bubble.

 

[Engineer]

Originally posted by: alchemize
WalMart is getting ready to go through a big transition. They used to be "A merchandise company that has food". They are now moving to the "Supermarket that has merchandise" model. They are dramatically reducing their toy section, along with other SKU's store wide. In other words, becoming more like a super-target. The grocery chains are their next target now that they've killed kmart and pushed target back to a distant second.

Now that you mention this, a non-super version of WalMart in Lexington just increased their food capacity by approximately double and, of course, removed something else to fit the food in. Your description sounds about right.

 

[Engineer]

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: alchemize
WalMart is getting ready to go through a big transition. They used to be "A merchandise company that has food". They are now moving to the "Supermarket that has merchandise" model. They are dramatically reducing their toy section, along with other SKU's store wide. In other words, becoming more like a super-target. The grocery chains are their next target now that they've killed kmart and pushed target back to a distant second.

Grocery stores are going to need to adapt that is for sure. HEB has started carrying alot of merchandise. I can go get a gallon of milk and 42 inch flat screen while I am there.

Kroger just opened two 100,000 sq. ft. PLUS "MarketPlace" stores in Lexington. They sell everything from furniture to fine jewelry to dishes, etc. Huge store.

As for Kroger's pricing, it's higher than WalMart but once the 5% credit card is factored in, as well as the closeness of the store and the lack of long lines (lol), it's worth it, especially if you buy the sale items and use coupons (they send me $10 off $50 or $15 off $100 coupons several times per year plus other FREE stuff coupons).

 

[sandorski]

As someone mentioned, this might just be a blip caused by Tax Refunds. Hopefully it isn't and continues, but you need 3+ months of such occurrence before getting a trend. In a few weeks 2nd Quarter results will begin pouring in and hopefully they show strengthening as well.

 

[Special K]

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: bamacre

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: bamacre

Originally posted by: Evan
when the next boom occurs sometime in the next 1-2 years?

When do you predict that boom's bust to happen?

As to the OP, people said the same thing during the bubble. We're not improving our economy, we're just selling out our long-term for the short term. We don't need more bubbles and busts, we need a healthy, stable economy. Of course, that's what the Fed was supposed to give us, and instead we get the opposite, an economic roller coaster.

There were booms and busts before the fed was around and they will continue to occur. The economy is cyclical and will continue to be so.

Certainly, and government gave us central bank-like policies before we had an actual central bank. But these massive booms and busts are not a natural phenomenon of the market.

While the fed played a role in the latest boom(keeping interest rates too low for too long) they were not the only player in the housing boom/bust.

And they had nothing to do the dot com boom as that was largely fueled by private money.

Is it even possible for our economy to simply grow at a slow, but steady pace? Why do we always have to go through big boom/bust periods?

 

[charrison]

Originally posted by: Special K

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: bamacre

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: bamacre

Originally posted by: Evan
when the next boom occurs sometime in the next 1-2 years?

When do you predict that boom's bust to happen?

As to the OP, people said the same thing during the bubble. We're not improving our economy, we're just selling out our long-term for the short term. We don't need more bubbles and busts, we need a healthy, stable economy. Of course, that's what the Fed was supposed to give us, and instead we get the opposite, an economic roller coaster.

There were booms and busts before the fed was around and they will continue to occur. The economy is cyclical and will continue to be so.

Certainly, and government gave us central bank-like policies before we had an actual central bank. But these massive booms and busts are not a natural phenomenon of the market.

While the fed played a role in the latest boom(keeping interest rates too low for too long) they were not the only player in the housing boom/bust.

And they had nothing to do the dot com boom as that was largely fueled by private money.

Is it even possible for our economy to simply grow at a slow, but steady pace? Why do we always have to go through big boom/bust periods?

Would be nice, but I dont think it is possible.

 

[Special K]

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: Special K

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: bamacre

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: bamacre

Originally posted by: Evan
when the next boom occurs sometime in the next 1-2 years?

When do you predict that boom's bust to happen?

As to the OP, people said the same thing during the bubble. We're not improving our economy, we're just selling out our long-term for the short term. We don't need more bubbles and busts, we need a healthy, stable economy. Of course, that's what the Fed was supposed to give us, and instead we get the opposite, an economic roller coaster.

There were booms and busts before the fed was around and they will continue to occur. The economy is cyclical and will continue to be so.

Certainly, and government gave us central bank-like policies before we had an actual central bank. But these massive booms and busts are not a natural phenomenon of the market.

While the fed played a role in the latest boom(keeping interest rates too low for too long) they were not the only player in the housing boom/bust.

And they had nothing to do the dot com boom as that was largely fueled by private money.

Is it even possible for our economy to simply grow at a slow, but steady pace? Why do we always have to go through big boom/bust periods?

Would be nice, but I dont think it is possible.

Why not?

 

[sandorski]

There's only so much control you can have on Economic Growth.

 

[bamacre]

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: bamacre

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: bamacre

Originally posted by: Evan
when the next boom occurs sometime in the next 1-2 years?

When do you predict that boom's bust to happen?

As to the OP, people said the same thing during the bubble. We're not improving our economy, we're just selling out our long-term for the short term. We don't need more bubbles and busts, we need a healthy, stable economy. Of course, that's what the Fed was supposed to give us, and instead we get the opposite, an economic roller coaster.

There were booms and busts before the fed was around and they will continue to occur. The economy is cyclical and will continue to be so.

Certainly, and government gave us central bank-like policies before we had an actual central bank. But these massive booms and busts are not a natural phenomenon of the market.

While the fed played a role in the latest boom(keeping interest rates too low for too long) they were not the only player in the housing boom/bust.

And they had nothing to do the dot com boom as that was largely fueled by private money.

Where do you think all the money came from? Low interest rates by the Fed in '98-99.

Might I suggest some reading...?
http://www.nothirdsolution.com...alinvestment-a-primer/

 

[Special K]

Originally posted by: bamacre

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: bamacre

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: bamacre

Originally posted by: Evan
when the next boom occurs sometime in the next 1-2 years?

When do you predict that boom's bust to happen?

As to the OP, people said the same thing during the bubble. We're not improving our economy, we're just selling out our long-term for the short term. We don't need more bubbles and busts, we need a healthy, stable economy. Of course, that's what the Fed was supposed to give us, and instead we get the opposite, an economic roller coaster.

There were booms and busts before the fed was around and they will continue to occur. The economy is cyclical and will continue to be so.

Certainly, and government gave us central bank-like policies before we had an actual central bank. But these massive booms and busts are not a natural phenomenon of the market.

While the fed played a role in the latest boom(keeping interest rates too low for too long) they were not the only player in the housing boom/bust.

And they had nothing to do the dot com boom as that was largely fueled by private money.

Where do you think all the money came from? Low interest rates by the Fed in '98-99.

Might I suggest some reading...?
http://www.nothirdsolution.com...alinvestment-a-primer/

The prime rate ranged from 8.25 - 8.5% in 98-99. Wouldn't that be considered relatively high?

historical prime rate data

 

[Fingolfin269]

Originally posted by: cubeless

Originally posted by: Fingolfin269

Originally posted by: cubeless
most of your positives have a negative attached...

methinks there's a bit more rocky before the smooth part if you look at how houses in your neighborhood are selling and the creep of food prices in the grocery store...

but i guess u can still do your happy dance...

just anecdotally i have to say that i contributed to both the car sales and goods purchases, but it was a pentup demand kind of thing that i had been putting off for about a year longer than i would have in previous years...

Your anecdote is actually a part of the problem. Fear leads to less spending by those who can actually afford to spend. I know I've been saving a lot more than I normally do just in case but lately have been spending a little more. I'd say this is true for many people out there.

you say fear, i say prudence... i have a lot more years to live (statistically) and between the potential for increased inflation and taxes that i see based on what's going on my nest egg isn't as sunny side up as it used to be... i can just see us folks who scrimped in the present to pump up our 401k's getting screwed (even more) now...

We're probably using different words to describe the same thing. I became more prudent because of the downturn. Basically because I was afraid of what could happen. I'm feeling a lot better about things now and plan to buy that tv I wanted about a year ago this weekend.

 

[ProfJohn]

Originally posted by: Engineer

Originally posted by: alchemize
WalMart is getting ready to go through a big transition. They used to be "A merchandise company that has food". They are now moving to the "Supermarket that has merchandise" model. They are dramatically reducing their toy section, along with other SKU's store wide. In other words, becoming more like a super-target. The grocery chains are their next target now that they've killed kmart and pushed target back to a distant second.

Now that you mention this, a non-super version of WalMart in Lexington just increased their food capacity by approximately double and, of course, removed something else to fit the food in. Your description sounds about right.

That just sounds like they are converting non Super-Walmarts into some type of Super Walmart.

I doubt anything will happen at the Super-Walmarts and the Super-Walmarts are where the company makes their money. They have Super stores doing $100 million a year, that is about 2-3 times the typical Super-Target.


As for the grocery side, I'd watch out for their neighborhood grocery stores. They are nice and cheap and could really kill the grocery stores if they do a mass expansion.

 

[Genx87]

So little of the feb stimulus has been spent it is meaningless. The bailout of the banks in the Fall is a different story. That imo did stop a possible great depression by keeping the credit markets liquid.

 

[Engineer]

Originally posted by: ProfJohn

Originally posted by: Engineer

Originally posted by: alchemize
WalMart is getting ready to go through a big transition. They used to be "A merchandise company that has food". They are now moving to the "Supermarket that has merchandise" model. They are dramatically reducing their toy section, along with other SKU's store wide. In other words, becoming more like a super-target. The grocery chains are their next target now that they've killed kmart and pushed target back to a distant second.

Now that you mention this, a non-super version of WalMart in Lexington just increased their food capacity by approximately double and, of course, removed something else to fit the food in. Your description sounds about right.

That just sounds like they are converting non Super-Walmarts into some type of Super Walmart.

Much too small of a store to be a super WalMart. I agree that they are opening grocery only stores and it remains to be seen how well they do. The one in Lexington, KY is OK but I'm not impressed by it (I guess it's too far away compared to others to impress me, lol).

 

[alchemize]

Originally posted by: ProfJohn

Originally posted by: Engineer

Originally posted by: alchemize
WalMart is getting ready to go through a big transition. They used to be "A merchandise company that has food". They are now moving to the "Supermarket that has merchandise" model. They are dramatically reducing their toy section, along with other SKU's store wide. In other words, becoming more like a super-target. The grocery chains are their next target now that they've killed kmart and pushed target back to a distant second.

Now that you mention this, a non-super version of WalMart in Lexington just increased their food capacity by approximately double and, of course, removed something else to fit the food in. Your description sounds about right.

That just sounds like they are converting non Super-Walmarts into some type of Super Walmart.

I doubt anything will happen at the Super-Walmarts and the Super-Walmarts are where the company makes their money. They have Super stores doing $100 million a year, that is about 2-3 times the typical Super-Target.


As for the grocery side, I'd watch out for their neighborhood grocery stores. They are nice and cheap and could really kill the grocery stores if they do a mass expansion.

No they are changing over the Supers also. Toys are being reduced in all stores, it's part of the "clean floor" program. No more pallets in the aisles, reducing SKUs and inventory. They are also bringing in more "brands" on electronics (sony TV's, etc.). Basically going after the Target customer.

(I know this because I am friends with a WM vendor who interacts with senior buyers).

 

[nullzero]

Its nice to think that we are recovering, sadly though I don't see an end in sight atm. If anything I would take this news as very negative because consumer spending always picks up in the summer time and it seems the numbers are compared to prior months....

The economy right now feels like we just fell down a smaller waterfall hit some rapids and now we are in a calm stretch of water getting closer to the edge of a massive waterfall.

 

[GeezerMan]

Originally posted by: nullzero
Its nice to think that we are recovering, sadly though I don't see an end in sight atm. If anything I would take this news as very negative because consumer spending always picks up in the summer time and it seems the numbers are compared to prior months....

The economy right now feels like we just fell down a smaller waterfall hit some rapids and now we are in a calm stretch of water getting closer to the edge of a massive waterfall.

Kinda like this?
Link

 

[nullzero]

Originally posted by: GeezerMan

Originally posted by: nullzero
Its nice to think that we are recovering, sadly though I don't see an end in sight atm. If anything I would take this news as very negative because consumer spending always picks up in the summer time and it seems the numbers are compared to prior months....

The economy right now feels like we just fell down a smaller waterfall hit some rapids and now we are in a calm stretch of water getting closer to the edge of a massive waterfall.

Kinda like this?
Link

yeah lol

 

[BoberFett]

Originally posted by: sandorski
There's only so much control you can have on Economic Growth.

So you're admitting the stimulus will fail?

 

[StageLeft]

The end may be marked by no more contraction, in the near future, but ultimately with a 70% consumer-driven economy and that relying more than anything on employment, its antithesis of which is becoming more substantial (i.e. unemployment), it's far too early to be going to the local auto dealership and putting in an order for that car you don't really need. Mortgage rates still threaten to be increasing and with all the other arms that have to reset, there is not a housing bottom yet and not one in the immediate future, either, on a national level. Foreclosures are still running rampant and people are still losing their jobs. These kinds of things have a more direct and meaningful impact on the average person. Tax receipts at state and federal levels are in the pits, too, which means many of us will be paying more taxes soon, when we can least afford them.

U.S. auto sales rose to a 9.9 million-unit rate in May from 9.3 million the prior month.

That shows nothing unless May and June sales are always the same, which they're not. Historically, which month has more sales? Without that, the number indicates nothing whatsoever.

I still suspect that recovery will be slow for a while and the US economy won't be "booming" for quite a while indeed.

Basically going after the Target customer.

I don't see how. Target caters to people with money who'd rather spend a few bucks than see a white trash kid without shoes next to them as they pick out fruit. To cater to a Target customer--to be like Target--in some ways costs money, which would push out their existing customers. Granted, the stores are more similar than not, but I think in Target one pays the little extra to have fewer savages around them.

I know it's been said a lot, but consumers are changing how they live and save and spend. The worse this gets, the more it will change them, and for a longer period of time. This has been a come to Jesus experience for some, either by losing their job or trying something out (like saving) and realizing that having cash in a bank account is such a reduction in stress that they'll ensure they never go without again.