College football bottom 25

[dullard]

No one seemed to care about my top 25 last week. So here are the bottom 25 of Division 1A - the cupcakes that the other teams beat up on. My appoligies to any fan of these schools - but your team sucks.

The rating is how many points the team would win over Eastern Michigan on a neutral field.

Place, Wins, Losses, Rating, Team Name
093 , 4 , 6 , 17.1 , Utah St.
094 , 4 , 7 , 17.1 , Louisiana Tech
095 , 4 , 7 , 16.2 , Ohio
096 , 3 , 9 , 15.7 , Northwestern
097 , 4 , 7 , 15.7 , Rice
098 , 2 , 9 , 15.2 , Wyoming
099 , 3 , 9 , 14.5 , Indiana
100 , 4 , 8 , 13.6 , Akron
101 , 4 , 8 , 12.4 , Troy St.
102 , 2 , 10, 11.4 , Idaho
103 , 6 , 7 , 11.3 , Arkansas St.
104 , 3 , 9 , 11.2 , Louisiana-Lafayette
105 , 4 , 8 , 11.0 , Central Michigan
106 , 3 , 9 , 10.2 , Lousiana Monroe
107 , 1 , 10, 9.6 , Rutgers
108 , 1 , 10, 9.5 , Navy
109 , 3 , 9 , 9.2 , Baylor
110 , 2 , 10, 8.4 , Kansas
111 , 3 , 9 , 5.8 , SMU
112 , 2 , 9 , 5.4 , UTEP
113 , 3 , 9 , 3.4 , Kent St.
114 , 1 , 11, 1.5 , Buffalo
115 , 1 , 10, 1.4 , Army
116 , 0 , 11, 1.2 , Tulsa
117 , 3 , 9 , 0.0 , Eastern Michigan

Why isn't Tulsa last? Well you have to look at Eastern Michigan's games. When they lost, they lost big, an average of 48.3 points given up by their defense. When they won, it was by 3 points to teams not in division 1A.

 

[aphex]

Id like to see the Top25 this week

 

[dullard]

Originally posted by: aphex
Id like to see the Top25 this week

Hmm, ok but I'll be flamed again. Miami slipped one spot (another narrow win, plus its opponents lost this weekend).

Big gainers this week: Boise State and Oregeon State (wasn't there was a follower of my posts who said Oregon would win over Oregon State)

Big losers: UCLA, Maryland, Virginia Tech

Place, Ranking, Team Name
01 , 60.4 , Southern California
02 , 58.1 , Kansas St.
03 , 57.4 , Miami Florida
04 , 55.8 , Oklahoma
05 , 52.4 , Ohio St.
06 , 52.0 , Iowa
07 , 51.0 , Georgia
08 , 50.5 , Alabama
09 , 50.2 , Texas
10 , 49.9 , Penn St.
11 , 49.1 , Washington St.
12 , 47.8 , Florida St.
13 , 47.6 , Boise St.
14 , 47.6 , Oregon St.
15 , 47.5 , Notre Dame
16 , 46.7 , Arkansas
17 , 46.3 , Colorado
18 , 45.4 , Michigan
19 , 45.3 , Auburn
20 , 45.2 , UCLA
21 , 44.4 , North Carolina St.
22 , 44.4 , Maryland
23 , 43.3 , Florida
24 , 43.2 , California
25 , 42.8 , Virginia Tech

 

[aphex]

Interesting. (haha i just wanted to see where FSU and UF ranked)

Im glad to see my gators in the list now... But why is FSU still so high?

 

[bGIveNs33]

Originally posted by: aphex
Interesting. (haha i just wanted to see where FSU and UF ranked)

Im glad to see my gators in the list now... But why is FSU still so high?

LOL... I am wondering why FSU is so high also. We could possibly have 5 losses and still be in the BCS. Aphex... are you coming up for the game or are you still in Europe?

 

[dullard]

"But why is FSU still so high?"

Its a lack of 1 and 2 loss teams. All 0 and 1 loss teams are ahead of FSU - or in a near tie. Most 2 loss teams are ahead of FSU (you don't think Hawaii belongs up there do you?). So it really is a comparison of 3 loss teams and 4 loss teams. In my opinion, some 4 loss teams are better than 3 loss teams, and FSU is one of them. Taking Miami down to the last play is one example of why FSU belongs above the 3 loss teams. If they don't beat Florida by at least 4 points next week, expect FSU to drop even more.

 

[mpitts]

Poor EMU. At least they have won three games this year.

 

[aphex]

Originally posted by: dullard
"But why is FSU still so high?"

Its a lack of 1 and 2 loss teams. All 0 and 1 loss teams are ahead of FSU. Most 2 loss teams are ahead of FSU (you don't think Hawaii belongs up there do you?). So it really is a comparison of 3 loss teams and 4 loss teams. In my opinion, some 4 loss teams are better than 3 loss teams, and FSU is one of them. Taking Miami down to the last play is one example of why FSU belongs above the 3 loss teams. If they don't beat Florida by at least 4 points next week, expect FSU to drop even more.

Thats a little confusing though. I thought i remember you stating when you first started it this season that degree of victory didnt matter. (i.e. someone runnin up the score).

Look at Miami, they were loosing to Rutgers for half the game. RUTGERS.

FSU just lost to a much crappier team, has a worse record than many other teams, yet it sits fairly high.

EDIT: I think NCState just became ranked.

 

[dullard]

Thats a little confusing though. I thought i remember you stating when you first started it this season that degree of victory didnt matter. (i.e. someone runnin up the score)

FSU just lost to a much crappier team, has a worse record than many other teams, yet it sits fairly high.

Look at Miami, they were loosing to Rutgers for half the game. RUTGERS.

Point do matter - but up to a cutoff. Someone winning by 60 points isn't given a better rating than someone winning by 28. However 28 is better than 21. It is a strange optimimum problem. If I put the cutoff at 72 points, then I get the most accurate prediction of next week's scores. If I put the cutoff at 6 points, then I get the most accurate prediction of next week's winners. 28 is a good balance, I predict the winners a bit less accurately but I get the scores much better.

It is a tug of war for FSU. If you look at the Miami game, FSU should be ranked #4 right below Miami since they lost by just 1 point. If you look at the NC State game, FSU should be ranked somewhere around 30 (several spots below NC State). But since each game counts the same, they average out. #12 is in the middle of those two results. In one of the BCS computers, FSU is given a 9th place ranking. That ranking is the best prediction of their scores. Of course the BCS won't use scores, so Sagarin gives FSU a 13th place. My #12 is right in that range.

The key is that Miami was losing in the 3rd quarter to many, many teams - yes including Rutgers. For some reason Miami is a below average team for 3 quarters. But the game isn't 3 quarters long. It is 4 quarters. Miami makes great adjustments, makes great play calls, and their players are better conditioned to last the full game. So Miami destroys all the teams in the 4th quarter.

 

[aphex]

Originally posted by: dullard

Thats a little confusing though. I thought i remember you stating when you first started it this season that degree of victory didnt matter. (i.e. someone runnin up the score)

FSU just lost to a much crappier team, has a worse record than many other teams, yet it sits fairly high.

Look at Miami, they were loosing to Rutgers for half the game. RUTGERS.

Point do matter - but up to a cutoff. Someone winning by 60 points isn't given a better rating than someone winning by 28. However 28 is better than 21. It is a strange optimimum problem. If I put the cutoff at 72 points, then I get the most accurate prediction of next week's scores. If I put the cutoff at 6 points, then I get the most accurate prediction of next week's winners. 28 is a good balance, I predict the winners a bit less accurately but I get the scores much better.

It is a tug of war for FSU. If you look at the Miami game, FSU should be ranked #4 right below Miami since they lost by just 1 point. If you look at the NC State game, FSU should be ranked somewhere around 30 (several spots below NC State). But since each game counts the same, they average out. #12 is in the middle of those two results. In one of the BCS computers, FSU is given a 9th place ranking. That ranking is the best prediction of their scores. Of course the BCS won't use scores, so Sagarin gives FSU a 13th place. My #12 is right in that range.

The key is that Miami was losing in the 3rd quarter to many, many teams - yes including Rutgers. For some reason Miami is a below average team for 3 quarters. But the game isn't 3 quarters long. It is 4 quarters. Miami makes great adjustments, makes great play calls, and their players are better conditioned to last the full game. So Miami destroys all the teams in the 4th quarter.

IMO I dont think one quarter of play should have that much bearing on the total ranking system. By placing that amount of weight on the 4th quarter of one game, you are making FSU jump nearly 15 spots. You said yourself its a 4 quarter game and i think we should be looking at all 4 quarters. Then again its not my system.

 

[bGIveNs33]

Originally posted by: aphex
Interesting. (haha i just wanted to see where FSU and UF ranked)

Im glad to see my gators in the list now... But why is FSU still so high?

I just heard some news you might be interested in... AD McPhearson has been dismissed from the team. It is confirmed, but the listed reason is "violating team policies". So, it looks like it will be Rix again.

 

[thawolfman]

Where's UCONN?

Didn't they just beat Iowa State?

I dunno who's who though, I don't follow College Football.

 

[JOSEPHLB]

This is the time of the season that is sooooooo intense..

I'm going to be praying, praying and praying some more next Friday when my Hogs battle LSU for the SEC West Division title and a spot in the SEC Championship game. I love it when all the magazines pick my Hogs last, but they prove them wrong, year after year after year..
In my opinion, we're one of the better 3-Loss teams in the nation.. but then again, thats only my opinion

 

[nitsuj3580]

How anyone can say Miami isn't #1 is beyond me. 32 wins in a row? All the great teams have their bumps here and there (ex. losing to Rutgers at half time) but the bottom line is they WIN! Every team they face is going to give it their all when they play Miami but at the end of the game, Miami prevails. Great teams pick it up when they might not play their best football for a couple quarters.

Interesting Top 25 overall. I'd say I agree for the most part. USC is playing phenomenal but #1 in the country? K-State is good but they can't beat any of the big teams in the Big 12 let alone any chance against the likes of Miami. The rest of the list looks pretty good

I just hope their is a playoff someday. College football would be awesome then!

 

[dullard]

IMO I dont think one quarter of play should have that much bearing on the total ranking system. By placing that amount of weight on the 4th quarter of one game, you are making FSU jump nearly 15 spots. You said yourself its a 4 quarter game and i think we should be looking at all 4 quarters. Then again its not my system.

But how on Earth can anyone implement that strategy. All I look at was the final score. I cannot (1) find the quarter by quarter score listing for each team - especially the 1AA teams. And (2) how do you weight the quarters? Should I somehow weight the 4th quarter less than the first three? (3) How do I justify doing that?

Where's UCONN?

At 6 wins and 6 losses UCONN is in the middle of the pack, ranked #66. They started with lots of losses, but are beginning to gain quite a bit in the rankings. I suppose I could do a linear fit and extrapolate out. The teams that started bad and got better would be given a boost on next weeks game predicitons. The teams that started hot then fizzed out would have their next week's performance prediction lessened. That would be fun. But I'm going away for the next week (Florida vacation). Not sure I'll have this programmed before the bowl games.

USC is playing phenomenal but #1 in the country? K-State is good but they can't beat any of the big teams in the Big 12 let alone any chance against the likes of Miami.

I just hope their is a playoff someday. College football would be awesome then

The fact is USC would be undefeated if they didn't miss an PAT and a field goal. Other than those two bad plays USC has played like the #1 team at all times - beating nearly all the teams by a large margin (even lots of top 25 teams). K state is winning a lot of big 12 teams (they could end up tied for Big 12 north division, but won't get a chance in the Big 12 championship). Their high rating is due to their 60-0 wins over a lot of teams. If I removed the 28 point cap, K State probably would be even higher ranked. Miami will win the national championship if they win out. But sometimes a team is undefeated since they are a great team. Sometimes a team is undefeated due to good luck. Sadly since Miami has nearly lost so many games this year, I think it is the latter. I've got a great playoff idea that would satisfy nearly everyone (here, near the bottom). I want that to happen so much myself, but I doubt we will see anything like it for quite some time.

 

[Fausto]

Originally posted by: mpitts
Poor EMU. At least they have won three games this year.

I'm surprised any of their students sobered up long enough to play a football game (Eastern has a bit of a "party school" rep for you non-MI people).....or maybe they didn't. That would explain their record.

 

[PsychoAndy]

Originally posted by: thawolfman
Where's UCONN?

Didn't they just beat Iowa State?

I dunno who's who though, I don't follow College Football.

Huskies kick ass on the court. I've lost tons betting against UCONN basketball.

Where's Vanderbilt?

-PAB

 

[dullard]

Where's Vanderbilt?

#81. Vanderbilt and Stanford are the highest ranked teams with just 2 wins. They had 3 narrow losses (Florida just barely beat them, Middle Tenn St. by 1 point and South Carolina). In my computer program a narrow loss to a good team can bring you up from the bottom. You don't actually have to win to rise in the rankings.

 

[mpitts]

Originally posted by: Fausto1

Originally posted by: mpitts
Poor EMU. At least they have won three games this year.

I'm surprised any of their students sobered up long enough to play a football game (Eastern has a bit of a "party school" rep for you non-MI people).....or maybe they didn't. That would explain their record.

Hehehe.. Yeah, it is tough to have a decent football program when Big Blue is right next door.

 

[McPhreak]

hahahaha...it's nice to see Cal although I don't know why it's even on there

 

[Mill]

Troy St most certainly should not be in the bottom 25. They are a very good team compared to all the others listed.

 

[aphex]

Originally posted by: dullard

IMO I dont think one quarter of play should have that much bearing on the total ranking system. By placing that amount of weight on the 4th quarter of one game, you are making FSU jump nearly 15 spots. You said yourself its a 4 quarter game and i think we should be looking at all 4 quarters. Then again its not my system.

But how on Earth can anyone implement that strategy. All I look at was the final score. I cannot (1) find the quarter by quarter score listing for each team - especially the 1AA teams. And (2) how do you weight the quarters? Should I somehow weight the 4th quarter less than the first three? (3) How do I justify doing that?

I think you misunderstood me. You yourself stated "Taking Miami down to the last play is one example of why FSU belongs above the 3 loss teams." I was saying that time (i.e. quarters) shouldnt matter, the only thing that should matter is that Miami won and FSU lost. By stating what you did, your taking time into consideration, which is contradicting what you just originally said.

For Example: Lets say Miami was winning by 1 since the first quarter. According to what your saying, FSU wouldnt be ranked as high. Am i correct?

 

[MaxDepth]

Where is Dook?

They lost to UNC this weekend and went o-for-conference for the third straight year.

 

[dullard]

Originally posted by: Millennium
Troy St most certainly should not be in the bottom 25. They are a very good team compared to all the others listed.

They lost to these two bottom 30 teams: UAB and Utah St. Their only wins were all against 1AA teams if I remember right (which I also rank but I don't list here for clarity). Sure Troy State was a 1AA powerhouse, but until they beat a 1A team this year, they cannot be ranked very high.

 

[dullard]

I think you misunderstood me. You yourself stated "Taking Miami down to the last play is one example of why FSU belongs above the 3 loss teams." I was saying that time (i.e. quarters) shouldnt matter, the only thing that should matter is that Miami won and FSU lost. By stating what you did, your taking time into consideration, which is contradicting what you just originally said.

For Example: Lets say Miami was winning by 1 since the first quarter. According to what your saying, FSU wouldnt be ranked as high. Am i correct?

I must be saying things poorly. The computer only looks at the final score. When you lose by 1 point, you took the game down to the wire, meaning one good play at the end and you could have won. Thus you should be ranked above teams who lost to the same team by more than 1 point. I'm just giving some explanations as to why FSU got a good boost even though it lost to Miami and why the Rutgers game doesn't harm Miami much since Miami blew them away in the end. The computer wouldn't care if that 1 point margin occured in the 1st quarter or the 4th quarter. It was just my personal opinion that Miami plays crappy for 3 quarters, but then wakes up in the 4th, and thus I personally don't think Miami must be given an automatic first place ranking. I'm trying to mix some personal opinion in with the computer which can be confusing if I don't explain it very well, I'm sorry.

Where is Dook?

Duke is #88, they just missed the bottom 25 ranking. They nearly beat NC State, (weren't they undefeated at the time). They nearly beat Northwestern, and Virginia, and Clemson, and yes North Carolina. With so many games that they nearly won, Duke escaped the wrath of the bottom 25.