Collapse can be avoided and population can reach equilibrium if...

[Gonad the Barbarian]

the per capita rate of depletion of nature is reduced to a sustainable level, and if resources are distributed in a reasonably equitable fashion.

So says this NASA-funded study on industrialized civilization collapse.
http://www.theguardian.com/environm...sation-irreversible-collapse-study-scientists

A new study sponsored by Nasa's Goddard Space Flight Center has highlighted the prospect that global industrial civilisation could collapse in coming decades due to unsustainable resource exploitation and increasingly unequal wealth distribution.

Noting that warnings of 'collapse' are often seen to be fringe or controversial, the study attempts to make sense of compelling historical data showing that "the process of rise-and-collapse is actually a recurrent cycle found throughout history." Cases of severe civilisational disruption due to "precipitous collapse - often lasting centuries - have been quite common."

The research project is based on a new cross-disciplinary 'Human And Nature DYnamical' (HANDY) model, led by applied mathematician Safa Motesharrei of the US National Science Foundation-supported National Socio-Environmental Synthesis Center, in association with a team of natural and social scientists. The study based on the HANDY model has been accepted for publication in the peer-reviewed Elsevier journal, Ecological Economics.

It finds that according to the historical record even advanced, complex civilisations are susceptible to collapse, raising questions about the sustainability of modern civilisation:

"The fall of the Roman Empire, and the equally (if not more) advanced Han, Mauryan, and Gupta Empires, as well as so many advanced Mesopotamian Empires, are all testimony to the fact that advanced, sophisticated, complex, and creative civilizations can be both fragile and impermanent."

By investigating the human-nature dynamics of these past cases of collapse, the project identifies the most salient interrelated factors which explain civilisational decline, and which may help determine the risk of collapse today: namely, Population, Climate, Water, Agriculture, and Energy.

These factors can lead to collapse when they converge to generate two crucial social features: "the stretching of resources due to the strain placed on the ecological carrying capacity"; and "the economic stratification of society into Elites [rich] and Masses (or "Commoners") [poor]" These social phenomena have played "a central role in the character or in the process of the collapse," in all such cases over "the last five thousand years."

Currently, high levels of economic stratification are linked directly to overconsumption of resources, with "Elites" based largely in industrialised countries responsible for both:

"... accumulated surplus is not evenly distributed throughout society, but rather has been controlled by an elite. The mass of the population, while producing the wealth, is only allocated a small portion of it by elites, usually at or just above subsistence levels."

The study challenges those who argue that technology will resolve these challenges by increasing efficiency:

"Technological change can raise the efficiency of resource use, but it also tends to raise both per capita resource consumption and the scale of resource extraction, so that, absent policy effects, the increases in consumption often compensate for the increased efficiency of resource use."

Productivity increases in agriculture and industry over the last two centuries has come from "increased (rather than decreased) resource throughput," despite dramatic efficiency gains over the same period.

Modelling a range of different scenarios, Motesharri and his colleagues conclude that under conditions "closely reflecting the reality of the world today... we find that collapse is difficult to avoid." In the first of these scenarios, civilisation:

".... appears to be on a sustainable path for quite a long time, but even using an optimal depletion rate and starting with a very small number of Elites, the Elites eventually consume too much, resulting in a famine among Commoners that eventually causes the collapse of society. It is important to note that this Type-L collapse is due to an inequality-induced famine that causes a loss of workers, rather than a collapse of Nature."

Another scenario focuses on the role of continued resource exploitation, finding that "with a larger depletion rate, the decline of the Commoners occurs faster, while the Elites are still thriving, but eventually the Commoners collapse completely, followed by the Elites."

In both scenarios, Elite wealth monopolies mean that they are buffered from the most "detrimental effects of the environmental collapse until much later than the Commoners", allowing them to "continue 'business as usual' despite the impending catastrophe." The same mechanism, they argue, could explain how "historical collapses were allowed to occur by elites who appear to be oblivious to the catastrophic trajectory (most clearly apparent in the Roman and Mayan cases)."

Applying this lesson to our contemporary predicament, the study warns that:

"While some members of society might raise the alarm that the system is moving towards an impending collapse and therefore advocate structural changes to society in order to avoid it, Elites and their supporters, who opposed making these changes, could point to the long sustainable trajectory 'so far' in support of doing nothing."

However, the scientists point out that the worst-case scenarios are by no means inevitable, and suggest that appropriate policy and structural changes could avoid collapse, if not pave the way toward a more stable civilisation.

The two key solutions are to reduce economic inequality so as to ensure fairer distribution of resources, and to dramatically reduce resource consumption by relying on less intensive renewable resources and reducing population growth:

"Collapse can be avoided and population can reach equilibrium if the per capita rate of depletion of nature is reduced to a sustainable level, and if resources are distributed in a reasonably equitable fashion."

The NASA-funded HANDY model offers a highly credible wake-up call to governments, corporations and business - and consumers - to recognise that 'business as usual' cannot be sustained, and that policy and structural changes are required immediately.

Although the study is largely theoretical, a number of other more empirically-focused studies - by KPMG and the UK Government Office of Science for instance - have warned that the convergence of food, water and energy crises could create a 'perfect storm' within about fifteen years. But these 'business as usual' forecasts could be very conservative.

 

[Gonad the Barbarian]

I'm thinking I should have titled this "Abortion and wealth redistribution will save civilization" and posted it in P&N.

 

[norseamd]

I'm thinking I should have titled this "Abortion and wealth redistribution will save civilization" and posted it in P&N.

sounds like a good p and n title. will have to read this later as i am relaxing on myh bed right now

 

[momeNt]

You didn't offer your view or an opinion on the article though, which may account for the lack of responses thus far.

The article makes a lot of sense. I'm able to agree with what the article says even as an anarchist, I'm sure the researchers and I would disagree on the remedy though.

I think authority and with it the centralization of economic control lends itself to a misallocation of resources that can lead to a collapse. This appears to be the final check that the market is able to apply to state authority.

Large cities like Rome, or any modern day city are simply not possible without a powerful state to keep order and bring in resources that the city itself is incapable of producing on its own. For a great example of this look at Las Vegas, but for the Hoover Dam which is practically a $1b project in today's dollars the city would not exist as it does today. The difference with Las Vegas is that unlike grain, once you build the dam you do not have to keep vying for that resource.

I think eventual collapse more or less comes with the territory of having a central state enabling unsustainable population/unsustainable use of resources. Elites continue to use more resources and accumulate greater wealth because the conditions of the state allow for the population of commoners to keep labor cheap to fuel more surplus for the elite. It seems that large population cities eliminates labor as a scarce resource and fuels the income disparity and resource depletion until it reaches a collapse point.

 

[norseamd]

the fall of the roman and han empires would of had more to do with social issues than sustainability i think. both had corruption entirely rui9ning their civilization. the roman empire was extremely fragile politically and relied on germanic warriors in place of the old roman citizen legions. the han was weakened by court intrigue and factionalism.

the world could support a large population with vertical farming, high density housing, desalinization plants, nuclear power, and green energy effecient technology

 

[momeNt]

the fall of the roman and han empires would of had more to do with social issues than sustainability i think. both had corruption entirely rui9ning their civilization. the roman empire was extremely fragile politically and relied on germanic warriors in place of the old roman citizen legions. the han was weakened by court intrigue and factionalism.

the world could support a large population with vertical farming, high density housing, desalinization plants, nuclear power, and green energy effecient technology

Rome towards the end was unable to keep their population fed, and more importantly they became unable to pay their soldiers even with food.

Their population required more resources than their empire was able to produce, so when their empire stopped growing, they were unable to sustain the population. Kind of like a virus destroying its host.

 

[sm625]

It cant really be about resources because we are sitting on a massive ball of energy. Oil may be at its peak of production rate, but oil is only one of many potential sources. There is no reason not to believe that petroleum will be replaced in the exact same way whale oil was replaced... slowly phased out as something better took its place.

One could make the argument that every civilization thrives as technology advances. But then tyranny takes hold and causes technological progress to stop. The same thing could be happening now. The tyranny we're under is very advanced and scientific in nature on top of the more classical forms of tyranny. Take fluoride for just one example. How is it that the population accepts a chemical soup that was first used in concentration camps and gulags to pacify the prisoners? The level of trust in authority is astounding, the level of willful ignorance on these issues is equally astounding. But if it continues then technological progress will stop, and we will collapse. Instead of bringing on superior new technologies like LFTRs and LENR devices, we bathe in SELFIE and FAIL videos. That signals the beginning of the end when people allow themselves to be psychologically controlled like they do in this society. But of course not everyone gave up and stopped trying. It is a constant battle, and is far from being decided. I just know that most of the people I've ever known have surrendered. It's like watching that cartoon (Speedy Gonzales - The Pied Piper of Guadalupe) where the cat is playing that song, and slowly all the mice succumb to it and one by one they basically become zombies. But he doesnt get Speedy Gonzales!

People just dont understand that there's a war going on. There is a system built around doing exactly what that Pied Piper was doing. It is omnipresent in our culture, but most people are either completely blind to it or they only see bits and pieces of it, like the tip of an iceberg. I believe it is this system, this force, this power, whatever it is, is what actually brings down civilizations. It is the sum of all the rage and loathing in everyone who sacrifices that part of their psyche in order to live in a civilized society. It is an occult force, a dark energy that some have learned how to manipulate. It is what the priests of power have used to totally destroy almost every past civilization. Imagine 100,000 heads rolling off the Mayan pyramids. What could drive a people to such an end? It is because none of them understood this occult force, how it gains power and becomes in fact so incredibly powerful during the collapse phase, precisely when our ability to analyze and document it is severely compromised.

 

[disappoint]

It cant really be about resources because we are sitting on a massive ball of energy. Oil may be at its peak of production rate, but oil is only one of many potential sources. There is no reason not to believe that petroleum will be replaced in the exact same way whale oil was replaced... slowly phased out as something better took its place.

One could make the argument that every civilization thrives as technology advances. But then tyranny takes hold and causes technological progress to stop. The same thing could be happening now. The tyranny we're under is very advanced and scientific in nature on top of the more classical forms of tyranny. Take fluoride for just one example. How is it that the population accepts a chemical soup that was first used in concentration camps and gulags to pacify the prisoners? The level of trust in authority is astounding, the level of willful ignorance on these issues is equally astounding. But if it continues then technological progress will stop, and we will collapse. Instead of bringing on superior new technologies like LFTRs and LENR devices, we bathe in SELFIE and FAIL videos. That signals the beginning of the end when people allow themselves to be psychologically controlled like they do in this society. But of course not everyone gave up and stopped trying. It is a constant battle, and is far from being decided. I just know that most of the people I've ever known have surrendered. It's like watching that cartoon (Speedy Gonzales - The Pied Piper of Guadalupe) where the cat is playing that song, and slowly all the mice succumb to it and one by one they basically become zombies. But he doesnt get Speedy Gonzales!

People just dont understand that there's a war going on. There is a system built around doing exactly what that Pied Piper was doing. It is omnipresent in our culture, but most people are either completely blind to it or they only see bits and pieces of it, like the tip of an iceberg. I believe it is this system, this force, this power, whatever it is, is what actually brings down civilizations. It is the sum of all the rage and loathing in everyone who sacrifices that part of their psyche in order to live in a civilized society. It is an occult force, a dark energy that some have learned how to manipulate. It is what the priests of power have used to totally destroy almost every past civilization. Imagine 100,000 heads rolling off the Mayan pyramids. What could drive a people to such an end? It is because none of them understood this occult force, how it gains power and becomes in fact so incredibly powerful during the collapse phase, precisely when our ability to analyze and document it is severely compromised.

Occult force? What occult force? Look, humans are stupid, greedy and lazy. There may be energy all around but harnessing it takes more effort than taking selfies. Even now, as my spell check flags the word selfies, I find myself adding it to the dictionary as a new word. I feel like I need a shower.

 

[bradly1101]

Rome towards the end was unable to keep their population fed, and more importantly they became unable to pay their soldiers even with food.

Their population required more resources than their empire was able to produce, so when their empire stopped growing, they were unable to sustain the population. Kind of like a virus destroying its host.

The end of the Soviet Empire was not all that different. Many credit Reagan with the end of the cold war, but it was inevitable and unsustainable.

It feels like dominoes are falling around the world. In so many countries the jobs don't coincide with the population growth. Then you have a lot of idle people, people who take to the streets in protest and who can even bring down governments, especially if they have our support (Libya, Ukraine), but not if they don't (Bahrain, Yemen) even if they are ruled by corrupt autocrats.

In our country wealth distribution helps keep the un/der-employed from rising up against our own corrupt government, rife with graft and bribery (aka: lobbying with $$$$). But is this sustainable?

In my lifetime I've witnessed the moon landing, the invention and rise of personal technology and watched as populations rise to the breaking point. I wonder if I will have to witness the fall.

 

[sm625]

Occult force? What occult force?

You do not understand. The system you were raised in means for you to never understand it. If you actually tried today, then in 5 or 10 years you might understand. But until then, you will only understand it the way someone from the 17th century understands something like a magnetic field. Long before the first magnetic field equations were written, people experienced magnetic forces but could not explain it. That certainly does not mean those forced didnt exist before then.

 

[Agent11]

Colonization of the moon and the solar system at large supported by bio reactors is the answer.

 

[norseamd]

Colonization of the moon and the solar system at large supported by bio reactors is the answer.

what is a bio reactor

 

[SMOGZINN]

The end of the Soviet Empire was not all that different. Many credit Reagan with the end of the cold war, but it was inevitable and unsustainable.

Reagan accelerated the fall of the USSR by ramping up the economy's until one broke. The Soviet Union's version of communism was not sustainable, and Reagan speed up both economies and the USSR happened to be the one that fell first. The USSR would have failed anyway, but it might have taken decades longer without that.
I've slowly been coming to the conclusion that capitalism is also unsustainable and that China is doing to us what we did to the USSR back under Reagan, accelerating our demise. Only for us it will be because our form of capitalism greatly rewards short-term profit over long term sustainability.

In our country wealth distribution helps keep the un/der-employed from rising up against our own corrupt government, rife with graft and bribery (aka: lobbying with $$$$). But is this sustainable?

We are already seeing the start of it in the US. That is what the Occupy Movement was. It is not dead, but waiting. The next big down turn in our economy will see a larger resurgence, and the one after that an even larger one. Eventually they will be powerful enough to threaten the government or their corporate masters, at that point it will get violent.

In my lifetime I've witnessed the moon landing, the invention and rise of personal technology and watched as populations rise to the breaking point. I wonder if I will have to witness the fall.

I don't know how old you are, but US will make it another 20 years. We already look more like the authoritarian regimes we used to oppose then the America of my youth.

 

[Agent11]

what is a bio reactor

A bio reactor is growing algae or some other organism that performs a function such as turning CO2 into O2, or producing lipids and oils for bio diesel production, or producing hydrogen through metabolic processes. You could even produce electrons and use them directly.

It is well suited to space. The environment is perfect for manipulating large masses, and the sun is the perfect energy source to grow plants.

 

[norseamd]

A bio reactor is growing algae or some other organism that performs a function such as turning CO2 into O2, or producing lipids and oils for bio diesel production, or producing hydrogen through metabolic processes. You could even produce electrons and use them directly.

It is well suited to space. The environment is perfect for manipulating large masses, and the sun is the perfect energy source to grow plants.

algae fuel is a very promising emerging technology