CNN : Trump is making the stock market rise too much

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theeedude

theeedude

Lifer
Feb 5, 2006
35,787
6,198
126
Market is pricing in inflation from his debt based porkulus. Interest rates have spiked since he won.
 
KB

KB

Diamond Member
Nov 8, 1999
5,406
389
126
Hah winnng too much. Sounds like Charlie Sheen.

I expect stocks to go even higher. Donalds pro-wealth policies will mean big bucks for executives and shareholders, but I doubt much for main street.

He plans to lower corporate and personal taxes, create a tax holiday for overseas profits, and reduce both epa and bank regulations. Non of those will increase jobs, but should increase dividends, bonuses and stock buybacks.
 
sportage

sportage

Lifer
Feb 1, 2008
11,492
3,163
136
Morning Joe did their analysis of why the market surged after Trump.
What is surging in the market are materials goods such as steel, and coal and also non material such as banking.
Steel, because the market believes Trump will help the steel industry with building infrastructure.
Coal because the coal industry believes Trump will overturn EPA clean air regulations.
And the banks are happy because Trump promises to cut them lose then overturn most if not all banking regulations.

However... healthcare and insurance not doing so good.
Insurance providers and hospitals fear Obamacare repeal.
The uninsured returning to the hospital ER for treatment, not able to pay, and the hospital picking up the bill just like before Obamacare.
Hospitals stuck with the bill, and the insured employees stuck with higher insurance premiums.

But the best is yet to come... ;)
Just wait util the last part indeed comes true, however the first part does not.
No infrastructure bills passed, No surge in the steel industry.
What will happen in the market, everything will come crashing down after the market realize republicans in congress will never allow TRUMP his infrastructure legislation.
So the current promising stocks will nose dive, and the already bad off health industry stocks will nose dive even further.

But we will not see this until shortly after January 20th 2017.
And the markets will continue to fool themselves until January 20th 2017.
Once Trump takes office, the shit hits the fan.
The proof of the pudding become clear. No rally, only depression.
No infrastructure, no jobs, no Trump America of milk and honey.
Only depression, huge job loss, tax cuts for the rich, the national debt through the roof.
 
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F

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
88,251
55,803
136
Massive stock rally under Obama lasting years? 'Doesn't mean anything!!' Small rally after Trump's election? 'SEE HOW GREAT HE IS!?'

What's funny is that if the article is correct it's because the markets foresee higher government spending in the next few years, precisely the thing that conservatives have been saying is a horrible idea for years. I wonder what changed? (I don't wonder what changed)
 
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Sinsear

Sinsear

Diamond Member
Jan 13, 2007
6,439
80
91
fskimospy said:
Massive stock rally under Obama lasting years? 'Doesn't mean anything!!' Small rally after Trump's election? 'SEE HOW GREAT HE IS!?'
Click to expand...


Who said that? The market has been a boon under Obama; especially if you stayed in and added more in the earlier years. If you panicked and bailed, shit outta luck.
 
kage69

kage69

Lifer
Jul 17, 2003
31,734
48,557
136
fskimospy said:
Massive stock rally under Obama lasting years? 'Doesn't mean anything!!' Small rally after Trump's election? 'SEE HOW GREAT HE IS!?'

What's funny is that if the article is correct it's because the markets foresee higher government spending in the next few years, precisely the thing that conservatives have been saying is a horrible idea for years. I wonder what changed? (I don't wonder what changed)
Click to expand...

So true.

How soon so many seem to have forgotten what republicans were shrieking in 2008, or what Obama inherited. The markets will collapse! America's days of prosperity are over! That muslim hates capitalism! 1000 years of darkness! Cats and dogs, living together. Chaos!

... but instead, Obama - facing systemic obstruction from the party-before-country McConnell and Co., was able to help mend the damage caused by the Cheney/Bush lootfest, with the economy of today being among the world's most healthy.

How much of it is the standard republican selective-amnesia and how much is the Jade Helm effect? I can't say.
 
T

TheVrolok

Lifer
Dec 11, 2000
24,254
4,092
136
I would think Trump saying he's staying in the business of making money while being POTUS should be quite reassuring to Wall Street. I don't foresee President Trump doing anything to curtail his personal profits which should keep big business protected.
 
B

Balt

Lifer
Mar 12, 2000
12,673
482
126
Sinsear said:
Who said that? The market has been a boon under Obama; especially if you stayed in and added more in the earlier years. If you panicked and bailed, shit outta luck.
Click to expand...

There are plenty of gold bugs and 'audit/eliminate the fed!' types out there who think Obama and Bernanke/Yellen have just created a massive bubble. They've been calling for it to pop for several years now.

Of course history shows that eventually there will be a significant correction, at which point they'll claim they were right all along. Never mind the fact they've lost out on huge returns the past several years because they invested their money in gold, non-hybrid seeds, and their mattress.

All that being said, I probably am going to be trimming my non-401k investments pretty soon. Not trying to time the market, but I like to keep more in cash than I have right now so that I can start buying if there's a big drop.
 
trenchfoot

trenchfoot

Lifer
Aug 5, 2000
16,139
8,733
136
Trump can ride on Obama's coat tails and keep the economy going in the right direction, or he can "Do it his way" like how he ran some of his businesses into the dirt. Just depends on whether he cares more for the middle class and the poor or himself and the elite socio-economic class he got born and raised in.

Surprise us again Mr. Trump, don't do another Bush-Cheney "Treasury Raid for the Rich" and stuff your own pockets and those of your ilk with our tax $$$ while not caring squat for the peasants and the miserable legacy you'd write for yourself just as Bush-Cheney did before you.
 
OverVolt

OverVolt

Lifer
Aug 31, 2002
14,278
89
91
The Nikkei hit 40,000 then crashed.

Same thing will happen here. Japan is just on QE 8 and we're on QE 3.

Unless we actually bite the bullet and cleans bad debt with a depression. Hopefully we do as its the only way to return to real growth, real household formation, and to get the birth rate of educated people back up instead of relying on immigrants.

Otherwise its just a long slow decades long process of grinding the economy to a halt on declining volume but rising assets and debt. Very simple stuff actually.

Japan is doomed by demographics and looking at the millenial birth rate and such among the educated we'll be just like them in a generation if we keep up current policy.

Just don't bet on the interest rate going up, thats nicknamed the widowmaker in Japan.
 
A

agent00f

Lifer
Jun 9, 2016
12,203
1,243
86
OverVolt said:
The Nikkei hit 40,000 then crashed.

Same thing will happen here. Japan is just on QE 8 and we're on QE 3.

Unless we actually bite the bullet and cleans bad debt with a depression. Hopefully we do as its the only way to return to real growth, real household formation, and to get the birth rate of educated people back up instead of relying on immigrants.

Otherwise its just a long slow decades long process of grinding the economy to a halt on declining volume but rising assets and debt. Very simple stuff actually.

Japan is doomed by demographics and looking at the millenial birth rate and such among the educated we'll be just like them in a generation if we keep up current policy.

Just don't bet on the interest rate going up, thats nicknamed the widowmaker in Japan.
Click to expand...

Funny when someone admits japan is losing due to insufficient immigration then proposes following in their footsteps.
 
theeedude

theeedude

Lifer
Feb 5, 2006
35,787
6,198
126
We may have a near term bump as infrastructure spending that GOP deferred under Obama gets front-loaded. Over the longer term, we could have stagflation or a recession, it depends who Trump packs the Fed with as vacancies come up. He talked about putting hawks on the Fed, but I think he may put people who will monetize his HUGE borrowing with never ending QE instead, causing stagflation. Otherwise, we'll see a huge spike in interest rates and a recession.
 
lopri

lopri

Elite Member
Jul 27, 2002
13,329
709
126
agent00f said:
Funny when someone admits japan is losing due to insufficient immigration then proposes following in their footsteps.
Click to expand...
Many years ago I remember listening to a conservative on this board who argued that high oil price was a proof of economic failure and low oil price was a sign of imminent economic doom. Both because of Obama's alleged incompetence. He was so serious about it that I could not rebut him for fear of offending him.
 
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Sheik Yerbouti

Sheik Yerbouti

Lifer
Feb 16, 2005
14,080
5,453
136
lopri said:
Many years ago I remember listening to a conservative on this board who argued that high oil price was a proof of economic failure and low oil price was a sign of imminent economic doom. Both because of Obama's alleged incompetence. He was so serious about it that I could not rebut him for fear of offending him.
Click to expand...
I think we need to stop worrying about offending people. Clearly that was the drumpf mantra. Lemme see if I can find this...
ahh here we go..
CusBWVpVMAADOqy.jpg
 
W

WHAMPOM

Diamond Member
Feb 28, 2006
7,628
183
106
JSt0rm

JSt0rm

Lifer
Sep 5, 2000
27,399
3,948
126
senseamp said:
Market is pricing in inflation from his debt based porkulus. Interest rates have spiked since he won.
Click to expand...

This. But its still irrational. The first pile of shit he fucks up royally is gonna send the markets into a tail spin.
 
A

agent00f

Lifer
Jun 9, 2016
12,203
1,243
86
JSt0rm said:
This. But its still irrational. The first pile of shit he fucks up royally is gonna send the markets into a tail spin.
Click to expand...

Markets tend to reflect perception of immediate reality instead of eventuality. If your fire everyone in a corp down to a barebones, that will tend to improve immediate profitability even if it screws the company some time down the road. We'll see how things go once he actually becomes president, but there's perception that trump will quickly cut taxes in a meaningful way for stockholders.
 
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