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CNN gets it right

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DrPizza

Administrator Elite Member Goat Whisperer
Administrator
Mar 5, 2001
49,606
162
111
www.slatebrookfarm.com
Okay, so seriously, I have a coworker who is absolutely in love with Romney & is positive Romney will win. How much money can I safely wager on this election with him? Is it safe to bet on Obama? I.e., is it a sure thing?
 

Lemon law

Lifer
Nov 6, 2005
20,984
2
0
Maybe Irish Scott asks the right question while ignoring the right answer in asking, "Alright, so the polls are corrupt, and the mainstream media is corrupt. They're all (in your mind) presenting false images. Well where should we get our information from then? "

As for me, I am sick and tired of listening to stupid talking heads who pretend they have any answers, SO I IGNORE THOSE TURKEY'S AND THINK FOR MYSELF.

I know its a radical notion, Irish Scott, but as Sarah Palin tells us, thinking for yourself is hard. There is no shortage of pundits who who volunteer to think for US. But its still a matter of mind over matter, if we think for ourselves, self elected pundits don't matter.
 

Perknose

Forum Director & Omnipotent Overlord
Forum Director
Oct 9, 1999
44,414
4,211
136
Okay, so seriously, I have a coworker who is absolutely in love with Romney & is positive Romney will win. How much money can I safely wager on this election with him? Is it safe to bet on Obama? I.e., is it a sure thing?
I think it's as close to a sure thing as you're going to get. But, as always, don't bet any money you can't reasonably afford to lose.
 

Charles Kozierok

Elite Member
May 14, 2012
6,762
0
0
EV totals don't matter. All that matters is the chance of a systemic error resulting in Romney winning.

Silver has Romney's chances of winning at about 15%. He had McCain's chances of winning at under 5%. That's a pretty significant difference.
 

Balt

Lifer
Mar 12, 2000
12,674
482
126
Okay, so seriously, I have a coworker who is absolutely in love with Romney & is positive Romney will win. How much money can I safely wager on this election with him? Is it safe to bet on Obama? I.e., is it a sure thing?
If he's willing to match your bet 1:1, I'd put a decent wager on it because you are getting ridiculous odds considering the polls. How much money you should bet depends on how much extra money you have lying around that you can afford to lose, since there's no "sure thing" ever.
 

a777pilot

Diamond Member
Apr 26, 2011
4,261
21
81
This is the "bet" I am making with myself on the outcome of this election:

If Romney wins, I am making a donation of $200 to St. Jude's Children's Hospital.

If Obama wins, I am making a donation of $200 to St. Jude's Children's Hospital.

If there is a 269 to 269 tie, I will make that a $500 donation.
 

rockyct

Diamond Member
Jun 23, 2001
6,656
32
91
Okay, so seriously, I have a coworker who is absolutely in love with Romney & is positive Romney will win. How much money can I safely wager on this election with him? Is it safe to bet on Obama? I.e., is it a sure thing?
If 3/4ths of a roulette wheel was black the payout was the same as red, would you decide to gamble and put money down on black? I sure as hell would.
 

jpeyton

Moderator in SFF, Notebooks, Pre-Built/Barebones
Moderator
Aug 23, 2003
25,375
141
116
Put down $500 on black ;)
 

Moonbeam

Elite Member
Nov 24, 1999
67,183
3,872
126
According to Sam Wang of the Princeton Election Consortium, whose models are based on current state by state polling after running 2.3 quadrillion possible outcomes, Obama's chances of reelection are now 97% That's a lot of black.
 

monovillage

Diamond Member
Jul 3, 2008
8,444
0
0
This is the "bet" I am making with myself on the outcome of this election:

If Romney wins, I am making a donation of $200 to St. Jude's Children's Hospital.

If Obama wins, I am making a donation of $200 to St. Jude's Children's Hospital.

If there is a 269 to 269 tie, I will make that a $500 donation.
That's the best kind of bet to make.
 

SilthDraeth

Platinum Member
Oct 28, 2003
2,635
0
71
What is going on in that picture? It looks like Obama and Clinton are holding hands and walking in circles... must be a gay marriage thing...

Maybe Clinton is coming out with a new line of cigars, since the "Dipped in Cider" aren't selling as well anymore.
 

stag3

Diamond Member
Feb 7, 2005
3,624
0
76
Okay, so seriously, I have a coworker who is absolutely in love with Romney & is positive Romney will win. How much money can I safely wager on this election with him? Is it safe to bet on Obama? I.e., is it a sure thing?
bet everything, there's no chance obama won't win
 

WelshBloke

Lifer
Jan 12, 2005
27,866
4,913
126
Okay, so seriously, I have a coworker who is absolutely in love with Romney & is positive Romney will win. How much money can I safely wager on this election with him? Is it safe to bet on Obama? I.e., is it a sure thing?
If you want to make it a sure thing you could bet $1000 with your coworker at evens and cover the bet by betting on Romney at the bookies at more favourable odds.

Edit: I suppose that's not completely a sure thing but any other option is pretty small.
 

Perknose

Forum Director & Omnipotent Overlord
Forum Director
Oct 9, 1999
44,414
4,211
136
Can't really agree with that either. This is quite a bit closer than 2008.
Yes, closer. But Nate Silver at 528, the pollster I respect the most, now gives Obama an 85% chance of winning. THAT, as I exactly said, is "as close to a sure thing as you're going to get."
 

Charles Kozierok

Elite Member
May 14, 2012
6,762
0
0
I was thinking historically as opposed to only in this specific election. Just a different way of reading that phrase.

I don't like to bet on events I want to happen. As I see it, if Obama loses I will be pissed off enough without also being out money.

But if someone offered me even odds on it, I'd have a hard time resisting.
 
Nov 29, 2006
14,686
2,503
126
Okay, so seriously, I have a coworker who is absolutely in love with Romney & is positive Romney will win. How much money can I safely wager on this election with him? Is it safe to bet on Obama? I.e., is it a sure thing?
Id wager everything you have. House, wife, dog, kids, 401k..its a slam dunk :p
 

diesbudt

Diamond Member
Jun 1, 2012
3,393
0
0
1. National polls are meaningless.
This.

WHenever a "poll" comes out, I never remember being asked about who I would vote for.

Neither the thousands of people I come into contact each week either.

So who is being polled? Are baised party members asking biased members of said party more often than non to have their "poll" seem more in their favor?

The only thing that matters, is what the "polls" say after Novermber 6, 2012. Which may or may not take a few days to allow the dust to settle.
 

Perknose

Forum Director & Omnipotent Overlord
Forum Director
Oct 9, 1999
44,414
4,211
136
I was thinking historically as opposed to only in this specific election. Just a different way of reading that phrase.

I don't like to bet on events I want to happen. As I see it, if Obama loses I will be pissed off enough without also being out money.

But if someone offered me even odds on it, I'd have a hard time resisting.
The bolded is most definitely not what I'm doing. I'm not really a gambler at all. I almost always only bet on sure things. An Obama victory is not a dead nuts sure thing, but it's close enough for one to me to take the informed, calculated risk.

I also have a $50 bet with Socio (all this self-proclaimed "job creator" -- I kid you not -- could apparently afford) that there won't be more votes cast in Ohio than there are registered voters. Again, not a 100% slam dunk, but I do feel confident.

Now my previous $500 bet with spidey that the stupid "I am not witch" woman wouldn't win in Delaware in 2010 . . . that was a slam dunk! :p
 

Charles Kozierok

Elite Member
May 14, 2012
6,762
0
0
Yeah, wasn't saying you were betting on something because you wanted it to happen. Just saying that for me personally, I have a hard time in that situation. I'd be more likely to bet on Romney, so I'd have a "consolation" if he won. But not with the odds what they are now. :)

Now my previous $500 bet with spidey that the stupid "I am not witch" woman wouldn't win in Delaware in 2010 . . . that was a slam dunk! :p
Oh man, some people have all the luck! :)

I wish I could just set myself up full time betting spidey. I could quit my job. (Well, I don't really have a job, but you get the idea.) :D
 

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