I just don't think that this trend of believing that novices will stay novices forever is really going to lead anywhere- especially in light of the fact that the world is actually moving in the opposite direction.
I 100% disagree.
Why?
Because I answered the phone at Dell for a year. The number that the regular people call to buy PCs because ordering off the internet is too hard. The number that none of us would ever call.
As part of the sales process I HAD TO (or lose my job) qualify the needs of these people. As much as nerds might not want to admit it, 90% of people were buying computers just for a web browser and some sort of word processing program (not even Word, as few bought that). The hardest regular thing one of these normal people would try to do, is print out pictures of the grandkids that were either emailed to them or came from their camera. The average iPad can do everything these people need to do and then some.
As as mobiles get more powerful and become more capable, then they will do more and more until they account for 98% of consumer needs. There is no reason that eventually Android can't have a "desktop mode" with more sophisticated apps when ARMs SoCs can support that. Capability is not what is dying, the x86 Windows platform is what is dying.
Look, I like it just as much as any nerd that all these people sunk money into PCs and drove the prices down for us with economies of scale. But lets be honest- regular people hate computers. They see them as these emotional and difficult boxes with a new disaster (lost data, viruses, spyware, etc.) around every corner. Meanwhile Apple is offering a perfectly cultivated garden where grandma can download and print grandkids without fear.
The consumer PC market is doomed.