Closing the Straits of Hormuz is easier than drinking a glass of water...

[LumbergTech]

Riiiiight.

Trying to stop a nuclear arms race in the Middle East is "no real reason".

Fern

you mean trying to provoke one? showing that the only way you will be taken seriously is to pursue nuclear arms

 

[irishScott]

you mean trying to provoke one? showing that the only way you will be taken seriously is to pursue nuclear arms

Yes, you will be taken seriously as a military threat. Most of the middle easy isn't as stupid and is happy to bask in our oil money while remaining on good terms with us militarily. That way both sides profit. Iran's current way is one of self destruction, at least of the current regime. The absolute wost they could do, if they got a nuke, is take out 1/3 of Israel, wo would undoubtedly respond with a nuke on Tehran. Not to mention what we'd do to them. If they establish themselves as the first undeterred nuclear threat since WWII, they're done.

Bottom line most of the middle east isn't as petulantly stupid as Iran.

 

[Doppel]

All Iran has to do is strike first, and in a lightning attack sink a supertanker or two, and all the commercial traffic from there on in would divert elsewhere due to insurance costs as much as anything.

That would effectively "close" the Strait of Hormuz to oil tankers and there's nothing the 5th Fleet, mighty as it is, could do about it.

For those who need reminding:

Would close it only as long as it takes to destroy the iranian navy (not long) and anything else that poses a threat to tankers going through the strait. Iran has nothing, absolutely nothing/zilch/zip to gain going into a shooting match over this and therefore won't. Absolutely, unequivocally will not get into a shooting match over this with the fifth fleet half a day's sail to it. It's a complete non-starter.

 

[MotF Bane]

People have been predicting an Arab spring in Iran for decades...It has yet to happen.
When an Arab spring occurs successfully in Syria, Saudi Arabia, Iran, or a "people's" spring in North Korea, I'll believe it.

I have no doubt that the Revolutionary Guard would have problems keeping things under control.
Some even suggest that the head of the Revolutionary Guard could even be more powerful than the Supreme Leader Khamenei himself.

Please read and consider the rest of the scenario I described.

 

[Nebor]

All Iran has to do is strike first, and in a lightning attack sink a supertanker or two, and all the commercial traffic from there on in would divert elsewhere due to insurance costs as much as anything.

Easily mitigated by providing those insurance companies and transport companies with a guarantee of financial restitution by Iran for any damage done.

 

[GroundedSailor]

Not even sure it would take that much.

IIRC, the channels that are deep enough for a supermax or pansupermax tanker to sail through at a preferred or greater depth are not very wide, which produces a natural bottleneck. IF Iran was able to disable and/or sink one or two tankers in the right spot, that alone could physically block the Strait of Hormuz, before any insurance based fears effectively close it.

Can't remember where I read this, could have been a Vince Flynn novel even.

While Hormuz strait is large and deep enough for the largest ships to sail through, it is easy to seriously hamper the passage by sinking a couple of large tankers and/or causing an oil spill and fire. Iran surrounds the straits on 3 sides and can easily launch ambush sorties on to merchant ships. Even if you have western warships hanging around, unless they fire on any Iranian boat who acts suspicious, there is not much they can do. Once they fire on an Iranian boat, its open war and that can get ugly real fast in those confined waters.

 

[Patranus]

That would effectively "close" the Strait of Hormuz to oil tankers and there's nothing the 5th Fleet, mighty as it is, could do about it.

LOL

Ill leave you with this:

 

[Jhhnn]

Yes, you will be taken seriously as a military threat. Most of the middle easy isn't as stupid and is happy to bask in our oil money while remaining on good terms with us militarily. That way both sides profit. Iran's current way is one of self destruction, at least of the current regime. The absolute wost they could do, if they got a nuke, is take out 1/3 of Israel, wo would undoubtedly respond with a nuke on Tehran. Not to mention what we'd do to them. If they establish themselves as the first undeterred nuclear threat since WWII, they're done.

Bottom line most of the middle east isn't as petulantly stupid as Iran.

Is that actually supposed to make sense? The only reason Iran would want nukes, if they decide to go against the current fatwa to have them, would be to achieve deterrent capabilities. If they had nukes, then the Israelis would necessarily stfu about bombing them...

And, uhh, Crazy Mullahs! isn't an argument to the contrary.

 

[1prophet]

How many hundreds of thousands if not millions of dead bodies (American and foreign from oil wars direct and indirect), how many trillions of dollars and constant threat of military action over oil is it going to take Americans to finally wake up and reject the energy status quo and realize that even with higher upfront costs solar, wind, and nuclear power will pay dividends in the long term called energy independence ?
http://www.iags.org/costofoil.html







Mean while in China


http://www.dailytech.com/US+is+Only...ors+Courtesy+of+New+Approval/article23588.htm


SHANGHAI, April 19 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ --Westinghouse Electric Company, its consortium partner The Shaw Group Inc., China's State Nuclear Power Technology Corporation (SNPTC) and Sanmen Nuclear Power Company of China National Nuclear Corporation today announced the successful completion, on schedule, of the first pour of basemat structural concrete for the nuclear island at Sanmen, the site of the first of four Westinghouse AP1000™ nuclear power plants to be built under a contract signed in 2007.

Westinghouse President and CEO Aris Candris said the first pour of concrete at the Sanmen site is significant because it shows that SNPTC, Westinghouse and The Shaw Group are committed to bringing all four plants on line in a timely and efficient manner.

"Completion of concrete pour is a major milestone that visibly moves the Sanmen project from the design and discussion stage to the construction stage," he said. "More importantly, by getting this project underway on schedule, we are further helping to ensure that baseload electricity generation will begin at this plant as intended in 2013."

Dr. Candris also lauded China nuclear industry, and the government of Peoples Republic of China for implementing a forward-looking nuclear energy program that will reduce greenhouse gas emissions and further ensure energy independence.

"The Peoples Republic of China is taking a leadership position in building infrastructure and developing a comprehensive energy strategy that will support economic growth in an environmentally acceptable manner," he said. "Westinghouse is proud to be a part of this effort, and we look forward to assisting our valued Chinese customers in a manner that is long term and mutually beneficial to the peoples of our two great countries."

The pour encompassed 5,200 cubic meters of concrete, 950 tons of reinforcing steel and 1000 anchor bolts. The concrete will serve as the foundation for all of the nuclear island buildings, including the containment vessel and the shield building.

In addition to four plants the Westinghouse consortium is under contract to provide in China, Westinghouse and the AP1000 have been identified as the supplier and technology of choice for no less than 14 plants that have been announced in the United States, including six for which engineering, procurement and construction contracts have been signed.

Westinghouse believes the AP1000 is ideally suited for the worldwide nuclear power marketplace. The AP1000 is:

• Based on standard Westinghouse pressurized water reactor (PWR) technology that has achieved more than 2,500 reactor years of highly successful operation
• An 1100MWe design that is ideal for providing baseload generating capacity
• Modular in design, promoting ready standardization and high construction quality
• Economical to construct and maintain (less concrete and steel and fewer components and systems mean there is less to install, inspect and maintain)
• Designed to promote ease of operation (features most advanced instrumentation and control (I&C) in the industry)

For more information about the Westinghouse AP1000, visit its Web site at www.ap1000.westinghousenuclear.com.

Westinghouse Electric Company, a group company of Toshiba Corporation, is the world's pioneering nuclear power company and is a leading supplier of nuclear plant products and technologies to utilities throughout the world. Westinghouse supplied the world's first PWR in 1957 in Shippingport, Pa. Today, Westinghouse technology is the basis for approximately one-half of the world's operating nuclear plants, including 60 percent of those in the United States.

 

[Nebor]

How many hundreds of thousands if not millions of dead bodies (American and foreign from oil wars direct and indirect), how many trillions of dollars and constant threat of military action over oil is it going to take Americans to finally wake up and reject the energy status quo and realize that even with higher upfront costs solar, wind, and nuclear power will pay dividends in the long term called energy independence ?
http://www.iags.org/costofoil.html

Clearly you haven't run the numbers. There are way too many brown people, not enough oil and not enough jobs. Make jobs building bombs & armies, blow up brown people, take oil.

 

[Craig234]

Riiiiight.

Trying to stop a nuclear arms race in the Middle East is "no real reason".

Fern

We're doing something about Israel having nukes? Great, I missed it, link please.

 

[gevorg]

For those who need reminding:

The most important oil transit channel in the world is a narrow bend of water separating Oman and Iran. It connects the biggest Gulf oil producers, such as Saudi Arabia, with the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea. At its narrowest point, the strait is only 21 miles across and consists of 2-mile-wide navigable channels for inbound and outbound shipping and a 2-mile-wide buffer zone.

So who's territory are those 2-mile navigable channels, Iran's or Oman's?

Map:

 

[davmat787]

So who's territory are those 2-mile navigable channels, Iran's or Oman's?

Map:

According to your map, they are within Oman's waters. Follow the grey line just north of the blue shipping lanes east, and you can see Iran and Oman marked on either side of the line.

And thanks for posting the map, I was trying to find one that showed just how narrow the navigable portion is.

 

[shira]

All Iran has to do is strike first, and in a lightning attack sink a supertanker or two, and all the commercial traffic from there on in would divert elsewhere due to insurance costs as much as anything.

That would effectively "close" the Strait of Hormuz to oil tankers and there's nothing the 5th Fleet, mighty as it is, could do about it.

For those who need reminding:

If - at its narrowest point - the Strait has two miles of navigable width, it would take a lot more than sinking two supertankers to block it.

 

[WackyDan]

No one should be happy with these recent developments. But its mainly the USA who are pushing for ultra severe Iranian sanctions for no real reasons. Its sorta that warning you Momma warned you about, don't push a dog too far into a corner.

Maybe the US can decimate Iran, but can only wound but not kill the Iranian ability to totally shut down Persian Gulf. Basically the US gives Iran no choice, either watch idly by as the USA starves their people, destroys their economy, or come out fighting. After all its national suicide either way.

But who takes the greater risk, Iran or the USA. As the USA also has the face the rest of the world for its hyper spastic foreign policy that is already costing the US big time already. Because no matter what, the US can't stop the Iranian ability to shut down the Persian Gulf, and if the USA forces the issue, we could well see 40% of the world's tanker borne oil, taken off world markets for months or even years. Instant world wide depression for every oil dependent nation in the world as speculators would push into the stratsphere.

Iran is one of the last nations I'd want to have nuclear weapons especially when their leadership often speaks of wiping the jews off the map or that they have no right to exist.

Iran tried closing the strait during their war with Iraq, and were unsuccessful then.

 

[irishScott]

Iran is one of the last nations I'd want to have nuclear weapons especially when their leadership often speaks of wiping the jews off the map or that they have no right to exist.

Iran tried closing the strait during their war with Iraq, and were unsuccessful then.

They were unsuccessful because we warned them then as we are warning them now, and they wisely decided to restrict their fire to Iraqi ships.

 

[irishScott]

According to your map, they are within Oman's waters. Follow the grey line just north of the blue shipping lanes east, and you can see Iran and Oman marked on either side of the line.

And thanks for posting the map, I was trying to find one that showed just how narrow the navigable portion is.

Lot of good it'll do.

Oman: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Royal_Navy_of_Oman
Iran: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamic_Republic_of_Iran_Navy

Looking at the raw stats, Oman wouldn't stand much of a chance in a naval engagement.

 

[Craig234]

Iran is one of the last nations I'd want to have nuclear weapons especially when their leadership often speaks of wiping the jews off the map or that they have no right to exist.

You're one of the last people I'd like to see voting on nuclear policy when you have such an ignorance of the facts of what Iran's actually said, yet you say incorrect versions.

 

[davmat787]

Lot of good it'll do.

Oman: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Royal_Navy_of_Oman
Iran: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamic_Republic_of_Iran_Navy

Looking at the raw stats, Oman wouldn't stand much of a chance in a naval engagement.

Huh? I was merely answering his question as to whose waters the shipping lanes are in, not speaking to the "might" of the Omanian Navy.

 

[MotF Bane]

We're doing something about Israel having nukes? Great, I missed it, link please.

Israel is stable. Iran is not.

 

[MotF Bane]

Lot of good it'll do.

Oman: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Royal_Navy_of_Oman
Iran: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamic_Republic_of_Iran_Navy

Looking at the raw stats, Oman wouldn't stand much of a chance in a naval engagement.

Except if it comes to choking off the oil supply for much of the world, Oman is going to be getting a lot of help.

 

[Genx87]

Stirring the pot to push oil prices up again? Been awhile since we had reliable 100+ dollar a barrel.

 

[Doppel]

LOL

Ill leave you with this:

'Merica, fvck yeah.

 

[EagleKeeper]

Stirring the pot to push oil prices up again? Been awhile since we had reliable 100+ dollar a barrel.

Iran has to demonstrate that it will not be pushed around.
statements to the effect have a soothing result on the natives.

The fact that it happens to boosts oil prices is a desired side affect.
Adds flavor to the threat.

 

[tommo123]

'Merica, fvck yeah.

might want to remove the flag from pakistan