my projection is around 10 years and alot more lives, i know in this age of instant gratification that is a long time. what many people do not consider is that by our troops being a "terrorist magnet" in iraq the terrorists are spending alot of time and energy planning attacks over there and not over here. another attack here is pretty much a forgone conclusion but i think it is in fact being delayed but what we are doing. some people equate "war on terror" as "war on al queada" it is not. iraq was a sponsor of terrorism ,and the most strategically placed so that is the main reason we went after them second(remember we took out afghanistan first) look at a map and see where iraq is in ralation to afghanistan we have 2 fronts into iran, many people may not have noticed this, but you can bet iran has.
as afar as al queada goes, we have had them on the run for well over a year and a half. finding bin laden wil be geat, but it will not be the death of al queada...in fact if anything when we do get him(and he probobly will not be taken alive) it will get al queada fired up even more due to martyr syndrome.
Hey, Shad0Hawk!
10 years and a lot more lives, that's a sober projection indeed.
My fears are these. First, we are politically committed to Iraqui self rule by June. The whole mess of power sharing between the Shia, the Kurds and the Sunni, with myriad lower level inter-tribal and clan disputes thrown in, has not and will not be solved by then. A Civil war would be bloody, and our troops will be drawn in, with messy and frustrating rules of engagement that will satisfy no one, as we try to balance political and military objectives.
Despite what even I would have thought, it seems that the vast majority of bombings against our troops and Iraqui civilians so far have been carried out by Iraquis, and not outside terrorists. All this, while our Iraqui occupation has diverted vast amounts of our military and financial resources away from the broader war on terror that should have been our central concern.
Many of our woefully understaffed corps of Arabic translators have been diverted to the Iraqui occupation, even as they are needed against Al Quaeda. The best of the
5th Mountain division was recently pulled out of Afghanistan and sent there. Their reaction?
Without warning, they were then given the task of tracking down Saddam. "We were going nuts on the ground about that decision," one of them recalls.
"In spite of the fact that it had taken five months to establish trust, suddenly there were two days to hand over to people who spoke no Dari, Pastun or Arabic, and had no rapport."
Underlying all of this is that there can be no lasting peace without a comprehensive diplomatic solution. As long as we, the "foreign infidel", have our troops in Iraq, no matter how benign and lofty our objectives, they will serve as a recruiting poster for more misguided martyrs. You would think that we Americans, perhaps the most overtly patriotic folk in the world; we, who think of our own federal government as jack booted thugs if they interfere too much in any of our respective states, would understand that the people of ANY country will not long tolerate being occupied by foreign troops, and will stubbornly and "ungratefully" turn against us.
With Saddam gone, you can bet that hundreds, if not thousands of Iranian Shiite agents have infiltrated the ridiculously porous border between the two countries, and are just biding their time.
You can bet that if the Kurds are left in permanent minority as the Shiites wish, they will rebel and declare autonomy. What do you think our erstwhile allies the Turks will do then. Nothing? Not bloody likely.
This is a mess.
Our invasion was a mistake. We cannot just instantly graft our way of life onto another age old politiy. It is hubris of the highest order. Vietnam should have taught us that.
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