Chinese Espionage or Skilled Reverse Engineering?

[Indus]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1720781497827836360

What do you think?

They're kinda not far behind SpaceX now apparently

 

[hal2kilo]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1720781497827836360

What do you think?

They're kinda not far behind SpaceX now apparently

They could be at this phase. Perfection takes time.

 

[cytg111]

Yea, I didnt see any IP copytheft there either ... if anything it looked like a demo BO did a couple years ago? Take size into consideration and it's not even at SpaceX "Hopper" level.

But props to the Chinese for moving the needle forward.

*MOAR SPACE*

 

[sdifox]

They put up a permanent space station in LEO, so I am not sure they need to steal anything.

 

[IronWing]

It’s an American trope that the Chinese are incapable of designing anything original. It’s a trope that has been biting us in the ass for decades but still won’t die.

 

[cytg111]

It’s an American trope that the Chinese are incapable of designing anything original. It’s a trope that has been biting us in the ass for decades but still won’t die.

There is a minute of truth to it, the top down government ship of enterprises, the mentality/culture doesnt really allow or motivate the individual to take initiative to shine and advance, the reward system is not there. In my book it's the one thing that capitalism gets right, it taps the individual for its fullest potential. Well it can. Could. Did at one point.....

 

[akugami]

It’s an American trope that the Chinese are incapable of designing anything original. It’s a trope that has been biting us in the ass for decades but still won’t die.

As someone of Chinese descent, I see this type of bias all of the time. People forget that China is one of the ancient cradles of civilization and also where that the Chinese were the ones that created that funny little mixture known as gunpowder that started off this whole little rocket revolution. If you look at the research teams in many universities and corporations, you'll see a huge mixture of different types of peoples, including many of Chinese descent.

China itself still has the resources to research and invent new things. This is not as evident, since China is still playing catch up to the west. And that's not to say that China does not have a huge infiltration network. They regularly conduct corporate espionage, among other types of espionage. By hook or by crook, China is hell-bent on equaling and surpassing nations like the US, England, and France.

Just because a particular nation is not as advanced, does not mean the people that reside in that nation are stupid. Given the opportunity, and the resources, any nation can rise up. And China definitely has the resources to do so, even with the brain drain that an authoritarian government causes.


I say all that to preface my answer to the OP's question. Do I think the Chinese copied SpaceX? Yes. But do I think it is from corporate espionage? Probably not. I would not be surprised if they did steal some secrets from SpaceX, or even Blue Origin, but I'd venture probably not.

Here's why I say yes they copied, but not probably not from corporate espionage. There are so many videos out there of SpaceX launches that the Chinese, or any other nation, can make reasonable guesses at the design choices made to allow the reusable SpaceX rockets to function as they do. Nations with the resources to do so can make very educated guesses as to how to copy the design, and make it work. Does it still need a huge amount of resources to test and perfect the use of these reusable rockets? Yes. But not as much as if you were the one trailblazing. Not like the atomic bomb, where it is immensely more difficult to create one, as opposed to just steal the design for one.

And SpaceX better watch out, Spain's PLD Space and their reusable rocket, Miura 5, is gunning for SpaceX's business. There are also plenty of other nations like Japan and India that are developing reusable rockets. Exciting times to say the least.

 

[woolfe9998]

As someone of Chinese descent, I see this type of bias all of the time. People forget that China is one of the ancient cradles of civilization and also where that the Chinese were the ones that created that funny little mixture known as gunpowder that started off this whole little rocket revolution. If you look at the research teams in many universities and corporations, you'll see a huge mixture of different types of peoples, including many of Chinese descent.

China itself still has the resources to research and invent new things. This is not as evident, since China is still playing catch up to the west. And that's not to say that China does not have a huge infiltration network. They regularly conduct corporate espionage, among other types of espionage. By hook or by crook, China is hell-bent on equaling and surpassing nations like the US, England, and France.

Just because a particular nation is not as advanced, does not mean the people that reside in that nation are stupid. Given the opportunity, and the resources, any nation can rise up. And China definitely has the resources to do so, even with the brain drain that an authoritarian government causes.


I say all that to preface my answer to the OP's question. Do I think the Chinese copied SpaceX? Yes. But do I think it is from corporate espionage? Probably not. I would not be surprised if they did steal some secrets from SpaceX, or even Blue Origin, but I'd venture probably not.

Here's why I say yes they copied, but not probably not from corporate espionage. There are so many videos out there of SpaceX launches that the Chinese, or any other nation, can make reasonable guesses at the design choices made to allow the reusable SpaceX rockets to function as they do. Nations with the resources to do so can make very educated guesses as to how to copy the design, and make it work. Does it still need a huge amount of resources to test and perfect the use of these reusable rockets? Yes. But not as much as if you were the one trailblazing. Not like the atomic bomb, where it is immensely more difficult to create one, as opposed to just steal the design for one.

And SpaceX better watch out, Spain's PLD Space and their reusable rocket, Miura 5, is gunning for SpaceX's business. There are also plenty of other nations like Japan and India that are developing reusable rockets. Exciting times to say the least.

This is quite a reasoned assessment. Your logic, that prior success of American companies with results that are visible and can be studied makes it easier for others to accomplish even without espionage, is sound. You may be right.

 

[BoomerD]

This is quite a reasoned assessment. Your logic, that prior success of American companies with results that are visible and can be studied makes it easier for others to accomplish even without espionage, is sound. You may be right.

espionage or no…China seems better at copying other people’s work…and maybe improving it than actually innovating or coming up with new products.

 

[K1052]

espionage or no…China seems better at copying other people’s work…and maybe improving it than actually innovating or coming up with new products.

Unless said product is an MRNA vaccine.

 

[iRONic]

BOOM!!!

 

[Thump553]

I say the chance of Elmo slipping them critical information is far more likely than espionage. He's already proven that he will bend over backwards to please the Chinese government. But I wouldn't pick either of those choices. SpaceX already proved the concept viable so the smart money is that China focused substantial effort into reverse engineering.

 

[Dave_5k]

I say the chance of Elmo slipping them critical information is far more likely than espionage. He's already proven that he will bend over backwards to please the Chinese government. But I wouldn't pick either of those choices. SpaceX already proved the concept viable so the smart money is that China focused substantial effort into reverse engineering.

On espionage vs. skilled reverse engineering, the answer in most cases for Chinese technology development is "all of the above". They almost certainly have stolen SpaceX technology via espionage, but then using that stolen information requires very skilled engineers still. People underestimate just how hard it is to develop something based off of just stolen blueprints & even "complete" technical documentation.

Which is why across the spectrum of industry and technology they have required lots of "partnerships" with companies wanting to get into Chinese markets, where they can not only steal the electronic documents, but get handed full access to the deep technical experts to help them steal the intellectual property. I saw this personally fully in action all the way back in the early '90's - in the chemical industry, with overeager companies handing China decades of expertise and IP for a futile hope of market access.

A License to Steal IP: What Partnering with China Really Means for Businesses

“The nine most terrifying words in the English language are: I’m from the Government, and I’m here to help,” said President Ronald Reagan in 1986. Now, the 12 most terrifying words in the English language for any business should be: “I’m from China, and my company would like to partner with yours.”

ipwatchdog.com

 

[K1052]

On espionage vs. skilled reverse engineering, the answer in most cases for Chinese technology development is "all of the above". They almost certainly have stolen SpaceX technology via espionage, but then using that stolen information requires very skilled engineers still. People underestimate just how hard it is to develop something based off of just stolen blueprints & even "complete" technical documentation.

The Russians ran into this problem also. Getting the info is comparatively easy, making it useful is another matter entirely.

 

[Dave_5k]

The Russians ran into this problem also. Getting the info is comparatively easy, making it useful is another matter entirely.

I think one of Russia's problems was trying to directly steal top end military hardware... without first stealing the manufacturing technologies to make the parts, which were then used to make the final parts that go into said hardware. And Russia lacked economic scale to make that full development ever feasible.

China has avoided those pitfalls, having both the economic scale and having mostly finished copying and implementing the latest in manufacturing technology across a wide spectrum of industries, which serves as strong base for going forward now with copying the latest in space and military hardware development.

 

[K1052]

China has avoided those pitfalls, having both the economic scale and having mostly finished copying and implementing the latest in manufacturing technology across a wide spectrum of industries, which serves as strong base for going forward now with copying the latest in space and military hardware development.

I agree that this is certainly their approach and goal but I think it remains to be seen how successful they really are at it broadly.

Like for example the C919 which is a plus sized 737 knock off but still chocked absolutely full of US/EU made components because they haven't been able to or willing to duplicate the all subsystems and everything that goes into them.

 

[akugami]

@Dave_5k

China saw Russia's mistakes and, for the most part, avoided them.

I do agree China has engaged in "partnerships" that have basically been openly stealing IP for decades now. And that's when they're not engaging in corporate espionage.

It would still be a mistake to think they are incapable of innovation.

 

[hal2kilo]

They've already gotten what they need by the idiot outsourcing everything to China over the last 30 years. They make sure they get the tech as part of the deal. It's too late folks, they've reached critical mas in tech if you haven't noticed. I just can't stand their crappy metallurgy (tools). They still steal like MFrs. Why is that anti Chinese to say it.

 

[akugami]

They've already gotten what they need by the idiot outsourcing everything to China over the last 30 years. They make sure they get the tech as part of the deal. It's too late folks, they've reached critical mas in tech if you haven't noticed. I just can't stand their crappy metallurgy (tools). They still steal like MFrs. Why is that anti Chinese to say it.

No developed nation should EVER have critical infrastructure or supplies manufactured in a different country if possible.

It is idiotic that the US has networking equipment and other critical parts manufactured in China, or any other country. We're not a 3rd world country like Nigeria that has to depend on others. We should NEVER put ourselves in a position where we have to question whether a critical piece of military equipment or part of critical infrastructure like the data networks in the US is compromised. That's just stupid. And I'm speaking as someone who doesn't believe the US ever had evidence Huawei was putting in backdoors in their networking equipment.