China's imports and exports down hugely

[StageLeft]

Link

I know people were talking about how their GDP would expand at singles this year instead of doubles. I will be surprised if they expand at all. How can they? It's not like exports are going to go up, since the economy is getting worse and less money will be flowing in three months than it is now.

Exports fell 17.5 percent in January from the same month in 2008...Imports also plunged in January, by 43 percent

 

[GTKeeper]

Seeing that exports account for 40% of China's GDP. Everything else being equal, a 17.5% contraction in exports means a 7.2% contraction in GDP for Q1.

Where do we go from here? I say down, I say China will have massive civil unrest before the end of the year.

 

[dahunan]

NOBODY can expand in this economy.. What friggn retards were saying that?

Bernanke types?

 

[Schadenfroh]

I say down, I say China will have massive civil unrest before the end of the year.

Maybe the chance for the Republic of China to finally put down the rebellion on the mainland will show itself

 

[StageLeft]

Originally posted by: dahunan
NOBODY can expand in this economy.. What friggn retards were saying that?

Bernanke types?

Google "china 2009 GDP". The articles from last year can be ignored, but even taking ones newer, like this it calls for 6.7%. Here, from Jan 19/09 forecast at 5.5%. I simply don't buy it, that is a truly best case. I believe the chinese stock market has gone up 29% since this year (at least that's what Cramer said yesterday). I think they are still addicted to opium.

 

[GTKeeper]

Originally posted by: Skoorb

Originally posted by: dahunan
NOBODY can expand in this economy.. What friggn retards were saying that?

Bernanke types?

Google "china 2009 GDP". The articles from last year can be ignored, but even taking ones newer, like this it calls for 6.7%. Here, from Jan 19/09 forecast at 5.5%. I simply don't buy it, that is a truly best case. I believe the chinese stock market has gone up 29% since this year (at least that's what Cramer said yesterday). I think they are still addicted to opium.

If China grows by 5.5% its still a big ass hard landing for them.

 

[rchiu]

Originally posted by: Skoorb
Link

I know people were talking about how their GDP would expand at singles this year instead of doubles. I will be surprised if they expand at all. How can they? It's not like exports are going to go up, since the economy is getting worse and less money will be flowing in three months than it is now.

Exports fell 17.5 percent in January from the same month in 2008...Imports also plunged in January, by 43 percent

You should take out your econ101 book and review how GDP is calculated.

GDP = consumption + gross investment + government spending + (exports - imports)

If their exports fell by 17.5% but imports fell more by 43%, they will actually have higher (exports-imports) component, and their GDP would go up if everything else stay the same.

 

[Zebo]

exactly seems they are going to ground and not letting other peoples shit in if they won't buy in return. Chinese are about 250% smarter than Americans.

 

[BansheeX]

How could they be expanding? They are still throwing all their savings at indebted Americans to buy their products in exchange for more paper in their vaults. The strategy is done, they don't need to it anymore. They became more capitalist than us, underconsumed for 30 years to have savings and loaned our government trillions at interest. Our government mortgaged the farm on our behalf to buy their milk and now China has the farm, reserves of our currency, and the capacity to phase into an economy that consumes what it produces. The only reason they can't afford it is because they continue to loan us money to consume their products for them. We are using their savings to consume and produce non-exportables, all we can offer them in exchange for production is an endless stream of paper IOUs.

 

[StageLeft]

Originally posted by: rchiu

Originally posted by: Skoorb
Link

I know people were talking about how their GDP would expand at singles this year instead of doubles. I will be surprised if they expand at all. How can they? It's not like exports are going to go up, since the economy is getting worse and less money will be flowing in three months than it is now.

Exports fell 17.5 percent in January from the same month in 2008...Imports also plunged in January, by 43 percent

You should take out your econ101 book and review how GDP is calculated.

GDP = consumption + gross investment + government spending + (exports - imports)

If their exports fell by 17.5% but imports fell more by 43%, they will actually have higher (exports-imports) component, and their GDP would go up if everything else stay the same.

I lent it to you, remember? You said you'd give it back once you'd finished chapter 1.

Fact is that equation doesn't even hint at anything unless one knows how substantial the trade surplus/deficit is for china. Considering they are running a surplus, a given % reduction in exports impacts them more severely than the same % hit in imports.

In any case, even with that, their consumption and gross investments are sure to take a hit. The government spending will be up, but I've never seen much merit in pretending the GDP has increased but the currency has taken a substantial inflationary hit. After all, we can't really pretend that Zimbabwe's economy is the fastest growing in the world.

 

[LegendKiller]

Originally posted by: BansheeX
How could they be expanding? They are still throwing all their savings at indebted Americans to buy their products in exchange for more paper in their vaults. The strategy is done, they don't need to it anymore. They became more capitalist than us, underconsumed for 30 years to have savings and loaned our government trillions at interest. Our government mortgaged the farm on our behalf to buy their milk and now China has the farm, reserves of our currency, and the capacity to phase into an economy that consumes what it produces. The only reason they can't afford it is because they continue to loan us money to consume their products for them. We are using their savings to consume and produce non-exportables, all we can offer them in exchange for production is an endless stream of paper IOUs.

Too bad they have nobody to sell their shit to. That's yet another thing you don't get. That country is still dirt poor and their only hope was to build a sufficient middle class so they could become self-sustaining. They haven't, they aren't, and they're fucked because of it.

 

[rchiu]

Originally posted by: Skoorb

Originally posted by: rchiu

Originally posted by: Skoorb
Link

I know people were talking about how their GDP would expand at singles this year instead of doubles. I will be surprised if they expand at all. How can they? It's not like exports are going to go up, since the economy is getting worse and less money will be flowing in three months than it is now.

Exports fell 17.5 percent in January from the same month in 2008...Imports also plunged in January, by 43 percent

You should take out your econ101 book and review how GDP is calculated.

GDP = consumption + gross investment + government spending + (exports - imports)

If their exports fell by 17.5% but imports fell more by 43%, they will actually have higher (exports-imports) component, and their GDP would go up if everything else stay the same.

I lent it to you, remember? You said you'd give it back once you'd finished chapter 1.

Fact is that equation doesn't even hint at anything unless one knows how substantial the trade surplus/deficit is for china. Considering they are running a surplus, a given % reduction in exports impacts them more severely than the same % hit in imports.

In any case, even with that, their consumption and gross investments are sure to take a hit. The government spending will be up, but I've never seen much merit in pretending the GDP has increased but the currency has taken a substantial inflationary hit. After all, we can't really pretend that Zimbabwe's economy is the fastest growing in the world.

So we established that falling exports don't mean $hit unless we we know if it falls more than imports. And along the same line, you don't have any concrete evidance based on your link to tell how much Chinese GDP is gonna go up/down/sideway.

You don't know how much of their consumption is gonna go down, how much investment is gonna go down and how much government spending is gonna go up, and you don't know how much inflation they are gonna have and their currency, controlled or not, is much more stable than Zimbabwe.

So please, stop bashing things when you don't have any fact to back it up. Not that I love China nor am I saying Chinese economy is the greatest in the world and it's immune from this financial crisis. But if you wanna bash it, at least do it educatedly and support it with facts, not ur opinion and guesses.

 

[Dari]

Originally posted by: rchiu

Originally posted by: Skoorb

Originally posted by: rchiu

Originally posted by: Skoorb
Link

I know people were talking about how their GDP would expand at singles this year instead of doubles. I will be surprised if they expand at all. How can they? It's not like exports are going to go up, since the economy is getting worse and less money will be flowing in three months than it is now.

Exports fell 17.5 percent in January from the same month in 2008...Imports also plunged in January, by 43 percent

You should take out your econ101 book and review how GDP is calculated.

GDP = consumption + gross investment + government spending + (exports - imports)

If their exports fell by 17.5% but imports fell more by 43%, they will actually have higher (exports-imports) component, and their GDP would go up if everything else stay the same.

I lent it to you, remember? You said you'd give it back once you'd finished chapter 1.

Fact is that equation doesn't even hint at anything unless one knows how substantial the trade surplus/deficit is for china. Considering they are running a surplus, a given % reduction in exports impacts them more severely than the same % hit in imports.

In any case, even with that, their consumption and gross investments are sure to take a hit. The government spending will be up, but I've never seen much merit in pretending the GDP has increased but the currency has taken a substantial inflationary hit. After all, we can't really pretend that Zimbabwe's economy is the fastest growing in the world.

So we established that falling exports don't mean $hit unless we we know if it falls more than imports. And along the same line, you don't have any concrete evidance based on your link to tell how much Chinese GDP is gonna go up/down/sideway.

You don't know how much of their consumption is gonna go down, how much investment is gonna go down and how much government spending is gonna go up, and you don't know how much inflation they are gonna have and their currency, controlled or not, is much more stable than Zimbabwe.

So please, stop bashing things when you don't have any fact to back it up. Not that I love China nor am I saying Chinese economy is the greatest in the world and it's immune from this financial crisis. But if you wanna bash it, at least do it educatedly.

Considering the fact that China is the manufacturing capital of the world, what it imports is largely capital goods (equipment) and raw materials, which then go mostly into exports. Considering the fact that raw materials have fallen by huge amounts, it is no surprise that what you say may be true. However, if you add the fact that the export side of their economy is huge (40%), it means that it'll have a huge impact on investment and consumption. There's no way around the fact that everything that makes up GDP is highly correlated and China is fucked any way you look at it.

 

[charrison]

Originally posted by: Dari

Originally posted by: rchiu

Originally posted by: Skoorb

Originally posted by: rchiu

Originally posted by: Skoorb
Link

I know people were talking about how their GDP would expand at singles this year instead of doubles. I will be surprised if they expand at all. How can they? It's not like exports are going to go up, since the economy is getting worse and less money will be flowing in three months than it is now.

Exports fell 17.5 percent in January from the same month in 2008...Imports also plunged in January, by 43 percent

You should take out your econ101 book and review how GDP is calculated.

GDP = consumption + gross investment + government spending + (exports - imports)

If their exports fell by 17.5% but imports fell more by 43%, they will actually have higher (exports-imports) component, and their GDP would go up if everything else stay the same.

I lent it to you, remember? You said you'd give it back once you'd finished chapter 1.

Fact is that equation doesn't even hint at anything unless one knows how substantial the trade surplus/deficit is for china. Considering they are running a surplus, a given % reduction in exports impacts them more severely than the same % hit in imports.

In any case, even with that, their consumption and gross investments are sure to take a hit. The government spending will be up, but I've never seen much merit in pretending the GDP has increased but the currency has taken a substantial inflationary hit. After all, we can't really pretend that Zimbabwe's economy is the fastest growing in the world.

So we established that falling exports don't mean $hit unless we we know if it falls more than imports. And along the same line, you don't have any concrete evidance based on your link to tell how much Chinese GDP is gonna go up/down/sideway.

You don't know how much of their consumption is gonna go down, how much investment is gonna go down and how much government spending is gonna go up, and you don't know how much inflation they are gonna have and their currency, controlled or not, is much more stable than Zimbabwe.

So please, stop bashing things when you don't have any fact to back it up. Not that I love China nor am I saying Chinese economy is the greatest in the world and it's immune from this financial crisis. But if you wanna bash it, at least do it educatedly.

Considering the fact that China is the manufacturing capital of the world, what it imports is largely capital goods (equipment) and raw materials, which then go mostly into exports. Considering the fact that raw materials have fallen by huge amounts, it is no surprise that what you say may be true. However, if you add the fact that the export side of their economy is huge (40%), it means that it'll have a huge impact on investment and consumption. There's no way around the fact that everything that makes up GDP is highly correlated and China is fucked any way you look at it.

How can china be the manufacturing capital of the world, when the US has a manufacturing base that is 2.5x the size of china. THe US produces 21% of the worlds manufactured goods.

 

[Dari]

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: Dari

Originally posted by: rchiu

Originally posted by: Skoorb

Originally posted by: rchiu

Originally posted by: Skoorb
Link

I know people were talking about how their GDP would expand at singles this year instead of doubles. I will be surprised if they expand at all. How can they? It's not like exports are going to go up, since the economy is getting worse and less money will be flowing in three months than it is now.

Exports fell 17.5 percent in January from the same month in 2008...Imports also plunged in January, by 43 percent

You should take out your econ101 book and review how GDP is calculated.

GDP = consumption + gross investment + government spending + (exports - imports)

If their exports fell by 17.5% but imports fell more by 43%, they will actually have higher (exports-imports) component, and their GDP would go up if everything else stay the same.

I lent it to you, remember? You said you'd give it back once you'd finished chapter 1.

Fact is that equation doesn't even hint at anything unless one knows how substantial the trade surplus/deficit is for china. Considering they are running a surplus, a given % reduction in exports impacts them more severely than the same % hit in imports.

In any case, even with that, their consumption and gross investments are sure to take a hit. The government spending will be up, but I've never seen much merit in pretending the GDP has increased but the currency has taken a substantial inflationary hit. After all, we can't really pretend that Zimbabwe's economy is the fastest growing in the world.

So we established that falling exports don't mean $hit unless we we know if it falls more than imports. And along the same line, you don't have any concrete evidance based on your link to tell how much Chinese GDP is gonna go up/down/sideway.

You don't know how much of their consumption is gonna go down, how much investment is gonna go down and how much government spending is gonna go up, and you don't know how much inflation they are gonna have and their currency, controlled or not, is much more stable than Zimbabwe.

So please, stop bashing things when you don't have any fact to back it up. Not that I love China nor am I saying Chinese economy is the greatest in the world and it's immune from this financial crisis. But if you wanna bash it, at least do it educatedly.

Considering the fact that China is the manufacturing capital of the world, what it imports is largely capital goods (equipment) and raw materials, which then go mostly into exports. Considering the fact that raw materials have fallen by huge amounts, it is no surprise that what you say may be true. However, if you add the fact that the export side of their economy is huge (40%), it means that it'll have a huge impact on investment and consumption. There's no way around the fact that everything that makes up GDP is highly correlated and China is fucked any way you look at it.

How can china be the manufacturing capital of the world, when the US has a manufacturing base that is 2.5x the size of china. THe US produces 21% of the worlds manufactured goods.

It was a colloquial statement. I guess I meant to say that China's economy is heavily reliant on capital-intensive goods. Most of the stuff made here is relatively high end and that percentage is plummeting. Every manufacturer I've spoken to has a China plus One strategy. Sorry for the error.

 

[charrison]

Originally posted by: Dari

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: Dari

Originally posted by: rchiu

Originally posted by: Skoorb

Originally posted by: rchiu

Originally posted by: Skoorb
Link

I know people were talking about how their GDP would expand at singles this year instead of doubles. I will be surprised if they expand at all. How can they? It's not like exports are going to go up, since the economy is getting worse and less money will be flowing in three months than it is now.

Exports fell 17.5 percent in January from the same month in 2008...Imports also plunged in January, by 43 percent

You should take out your econ101 book and review how GDP is calculated.

GDP = consumption + gross investment + government spending + (exports - imports)

If their exports fell by 17.5% but imports fell more by 43%, they will actually have higher (exports-imports) component, and their GDP would go up if everything else stay the same.

I lent it to you, remember? You said you'd give it back once you'd finished chapter 1.

Fact is that equation doesn't even hint at anything unless one knows how substantial the trade surplus/deficit is for china. Considering they are running a surplus, a given % reduction in exports impacts them more severely than the same % hit in imports.

In any case, even with that, their consumption and gross investments are sure to take a hit. The government spending will be up, but I've never seen much merit in pretending the GDP has increased but the currency has taken a substantial inflationary hit. After all, we can't really pretend that Zimbabwe's economy is the fastest growing in the world.

So we established that falling exports don't mean $hit unless we we know if it falls more than imports. And along the same line, you don't have any concrete evidance based on your link to tell how much Chinese GDP is gonna go up/down/sideway.

You don't know how much of their consumption is gonna go down, how much investment is gonna go down and how much government spending is gonna go up, and you don't know how much inflation they are gonna have and their currency, controlled or not, is much more stable than Zimbabwe.

So please, stop bashing things when you don't have any fact to back it up. Not that I love China nor am I saying Chinese economy is the greatest in the world and it's immune from this financial crisis. But if you wanna bash it, at least do it educatedly.

Considering the fact that China is the manufacturing capital of the world, what it imports is largely capital goods (equipment) and raw materials, which then go mostly into exports. Considering the fact that raw materials have fallen by huge amounts, it is no surprise that what you say may be true. However, if you add the fact that the export side of their economy is huge (40%), it means that it'll have a huge impact on investment and consumption. There's no way around the fact that everything that makes up GDP is highly correlated and China is fucked any way you look at it.

How can china be the manufacturing capital of the world, when the US has a manufacturing base that is 2.5x the size of china. THe US produces 21% of the worlds manufactured goods.

It was a colloquial statement. I guess I meant to say that China's economy is heavily reliant on capital-intensive goods. Most of the stuff made here is relatively high end and that percentage is plummeting. Every manufacturer I've spoken to has a China plus One strategy. Sorry for the error.

The US share of manufacturing share has remained steady while china has doubled it share in manufacturing(china is taking share from other places). Yes, US companies produce things in china, but we continue to grow the the amount of things produced here as well.

 

[rchiu]

Originally posted by: Dari

Considering the fact that China is the manufacturing capital of the world, what it imports is largely capital goods (equipment) and raw materials, which then go mostly into exports. Considering the fact that raw materials have fallen by huge amounts, it is no surprise that what you say may be true. However, if you add the fact that the export side of their economy is huge (40%), it means that it'll have a huge impact on investment and consumption. There's no way around the fact that everything that makes up GDP is highly correlated and China is fucked any way you look at it.

What you say maybe true, but that's not something we know for sure, and certainly not based on the export/import number the OP cited.

Yes Chinese investment and consumption will certainly go down, Chinese government don't deny it, but is it enough to off set the gain from population growth and government spending? Who knows. There are reasons that economists whose job is doing these kind of analysis still believe Chinese GDP will still grow, even if it's at a reduced rate.

The projection may change along the year as facts come in, but to simply look at export and import (not even looking at the net effect) is just wrong.

 

[nobodyknows]

Originally posted by: rchiu

Originally posted by: Dari

Considering the fact that China is the manufacturing capital of the world, what it imports is largely capital goods (equipment) and raw materials, which then go mostly into exports. Considering the fact that raw materials have fallen by huge amounts, it is no surprise that what you say may be true. However, if you add the fact that the export side of their economy is huge (40%), it means that it'll have a huge impact on investment and consumption. There's no way around the fact that everything that makes up GDP is highly correlated and China is fucked any way you look at it.

What you say maybe true, but that's not something we know for sure, and certainly not based on the export/import number the OP cited.

Yes Chinese investment and consumption will certainly go down, Chinese government don't deny it, but is it enough to off set the gain from population growth and government spending? Who knows. There are reasons that economists whose job is doing these kind of analysis still believe Chinese GDP will still grow, even if it's at a reduced rate.

The projection may change along the year as facts come in, but to simply look at export and import (not even looking at the net effect) is just wrong.

Do you think that maybe this has something to do with the Chinese wanting us to guarantee our treauries they're holding?

 

[Veramocor]

Originally posted by: BansheeX
How could they be expanding? They are still throwing all their savings at indebted Americans to buy their products in exchange for more paper in their vaults. The strategy is done, they don't need to it anymore. They became more capitalist than us, underconsumed for 30 years to have savings and loaned our government trillions at interest. Our government mortgaged the farm on our behalf to buy their milk and now China has the farm, reserves of our currency, and the capacity to phase into an economy that consumes what it produces. The only reason they can't afford it is because they continue to loan us money to consume their products for them. We are using their savings to consume and produce non-exportables, all we can offer them in exchange for production is an endless stream of paper IOUs.

Old proverb, new time.


?If you owe the China billions, that?s your problem. If you owe the China trillions, that?s the China's problem.?

 

[kreactor]

just as the british opened and forcefed china's opium addiction, british's bastard children now reaps the effects of credit addiction

 

[Nemesis 1]

And were did China get all her Gold. When the Brits stole much of it. What backs China $.

Look for China to export more to the USA than we export to them makes zero sense. Look at population. They should be consumers of our goods not the other way around.

I will never buy another thing made in China. I am old I can do this easy. First we built up Germany and Japan after WWII than we built up south Korea After Korean war. Its a good thing we lost in Nam . Or we would have rebuilt them . Lets get out of IRAQ now. Sure don't need to rebuild Iraq into mighty babaloyn.

 

[Nemesis 1]

Originally posted by: Zebo
exactly seems they are going to ground and not letting other peoples shit in if they won't buy in return. Chinese are about 250% smarter than Americans.

Come on . Child labor. Whats the average worker make in China.

The Dollars China holds are not backed by anything . I say freak them and ask for the money they owe us from WWII . That has to be paid in GOLD. As we were under Gold standard than . We want that payment based on Gold pricies Than not now. Plus interest.

Lets see who owes who what. None paid us off the WWII debt. Hell Brit would have had to sigm over their country to repay us. NO ONE NOT 1 payed their war debt to us . Time for us to say Oopps. Sorry were broke just like you all were at end of WWII. You didn't pay us back . So now were even.

 

[Hacp]

Originally posted by: rchiu

Originally posted by: Skoorb
Link

I know people were talking about how their GDP would expand at singles this year instead of doubles. I will be surprised if they expand at all. How can they? It's not like exports are going to go up, since the economy is getting worse and less money will be flowing in three months than it is now.

Exports fell 17.5 percent in January from the same month in 2008...Imports also plunged in January, by 43 percent

You should take out your econ101 book and review how GDP is calculated.

GDP = consumption + gross investment + government spending + (exports - imports)

If their exports fell by 17.5% but imports fell more by 43%, they will actually have higher (exports-imports) component, and their GDP would go up if everything else stay the same.

% minus % or actual number minus actual number?

 

[StageLeft]

*bump*

Because if you can't admit to being wrong you can't grow I don't know what the current numbers are but China is still growing pretty quickly.

 

[BigDH01]

Originally posted by: LegendKiller

Originally posted by: BansheeX
How could they be expanding? They are still throwing all their savings at indebted Americans to buy their products in exchange for more paper in their vaults. The strategy is done, they don't need to it anymore. They became more capitalist than us, underconsumed for 30 years to have savings and loaned our government trillions at interest. Our government mortgaged the farm on our behalf to buy their milk and now China has the farm, reserves of our currency, and the capacity to phase into an economy that consumes what it produces. The only reason they can't afford it is because they continue to loan us money to consume their products for them. We are using their savings to consume and produce non-exportables, all we can offer them in exchange for production is an endless stream of paper IOUs.

Too bad they have nobody to sell their shit to. That's yet another thing you don't get. That country is still dirt poor and their only hope was to build a sufficient middle class so they could become self-sustaining. They haven't, they aren't, and they're fucked because of it.

This. They haven't sufficiently built a middle-class and their wealth inequality is still extreme. And I hardly see why you only blame the government for this. Public and private sector debt has exploded. Everyone is borrowing to buy Chinese crap and then they bitch when the dollar becomes devalued.