China's big energy crunch

[charrison]

linkage

BEIJING - In the past year, China's oil companies found a new passion: going global.


Using coal to plug the shortfall in electricity output is out because of the massive health and environmental costs. -- AFP
Their blitz across the world, from Central Asia to North Africa, locked in gas and oil supplies which ensured that China would have enough to meet its energy needs for the coming decades.

A net oil importer from 1993, this vast country badly needs imported oil to fuel its growth. Even assuming a modest rise in gross domestic product of 6 per cent a year, oil imports will exceed six million barrels a day by 2020, over six times the 1999 level.

In 2001, the ruling Chinese Communist Party set a target of quadrupling the national economy to US$4 trillion (S$6.8 trillion) by 2020.

Thus factories need to hum and companies to grow. To expand, China needs 800 million to 900 million kilowatts of electricity a year.

For now, it can only generate 350 million kilowatts of electricity annually. That means a shortfall of 450 million to 550 million kilowatts.

The central government once considered using coal to plug the gap. About 1.2 billion tonnes would be needed to generate an extra 550 million kilowatts. Digging, transporting and burning so much coal would entail huge health and environmental costs.

China may be forced to slow its growth....

 

[Tab]

Yet another reason as to why we invaded Iraq

 

[zephyrprime]

They're gonna have to build a lot of nuclear plants. That's the only thing that can produce that much power. But they only plan on having 4% of their power coming from nuclear in the year 2020.

But nuclear won't solve their oil problems.

 

[charrison]

Originally posted by: zephyrprime
They're gonna have to build a lot of nuclear plants. That's the only thing that can produce that much power. But they only plan on having 4% of their power coming from nuclear in the year 2020.

But nuclear won't solve their oil problems.

Yup, china made and sold over 4 million cars domestically last year.....

 

[0roo0roo]

eh, everyone in china should buy a car.. or two.. or three like in america. then they should invade the middle east

 

[sandorski]

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: zephyrprime
They're gonna have to build a lot of nuclear plants. That's the only thing that can produce that much power. But they only plan on having 4% of their power coming from nuclear in the year 2020.

But nuclear won't solve their oil problems.

Yup, china made and sold over 4 million cars domestically last year.....

Much of those were counterfeit. AFAIK, China is the first nation to ever counterfeit cars.

 

[charrison]

Originally posted by: sandorski

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: zephyrprime
They're gonna have to build a lot of nuclear plants. That's the only thing that can produce that much power. But they only plan on having 4% of their power coming from nuclear in the year 2020.

But nuclear won't solve their oil problems.

Yup, china made and sold over 4 million cars domestically last year.....

Much of those were counterfeit. AFAIK, China is the first nation to ever counterfeit cars.

????

 

[buckmasterson]

They are also flooding the world with glass. I work for the third largest flat glass maker in the world, and they are causing us fits in the market. China's boom is gonna put some people out of business.

 

[Pennstate]

China is also flooding us with cheap furniture that is going to put a lot of "solid wood" furniture makers here out of business. This trend started with discounted chains like value city furniture. Now, even the high end stores carry cheap chinese imports. In theory free trade is good and it will probably be beneficial in the long term, but in the short term, a lot of individuals are going to suffer. However, this "trend" is probably inevitable.

 

[Pennstate]

China is also flooding us with cheap furniture that is going to put a lot of "solid wood" furniture makers here out of business. This trend started with discounted chains like value city furniture. Now, even the high end stores carry cheap chinese imports. In theory free trade is good and it will probably be beneficial in the long term, but in the short term, a lot of individuals are going to suffer. However, this "trend" is probably inevitable.

 

[charrison]

Originally posted by: Pennstate
China is also flooding us with cheap furniture that is going to put a lot of "solid wood" furniture makers here out of business. This trend started with discounted chains like value city furniture. Now, even the high end stores carry cheap chinese imports. In theory free trade is good and it will probably be beneficial in the long term, but in the short term, a lot of individuals are going to suffer. However, this "trend" is probably inevitable.

I saw a home theater cabnets at costco a few weeks ago. The were inexpensive, i was very surprised to see they were made in the USA. I hope we can compete.

 

[sandorski]

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: sandorski

Originally posted by: charrison

Originally posted by: zephyrprime
They're gonna have to build a lot of nuclear plants. That's the only thing that can produce that much power. But they only plan on having 4% of their power coming from nuclear in the year 2020.

But nuclear won't solve their oil problems.

Yup, china made and sold over 4 million cars domestically last year.....

Much of those were counterfeit. AFAIK, China is the first nation to ever counterfeit cars.

????

Transcript of Lou Dobbs Moneyline

It's way down, here's the pertinent portion:

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DOBBS: Coming up next, you knew about fake Rolexes, Guccis, perhaps even knockoff airplane parts. But China's biggest growth industry is counterfeit cars. Stay with us.

(COMMERCIAL BREAK)

DOBBS: 2004 will be the year of the copied car, at least in China. From Beijing to Shanghai, copy cars are crowding the roads and dealerships. Chinese fans of the Chevrolet Spark can now buy the QQ. It is far cheaper. It looks and drives just like the real thing. Knockoff Toyotas and Mercedes are pouring off Chinese assembly lines faster than you can say "rip-off."

(BEGIN VIDEOTAPE)

GRAEME MAXTON, DIRECTOR, AUTOPOLIS: China is the home of counterfeits, copying DVDs and videos and all sorts of software.

DOBBS (voice-over): The FBI estimates that American businesses lose $200 billion to $250 billion each year to counterfeiting.

MAXTON: Why China? Well, this has been part of the economic model they've adopted. They don't really see this as theft. They see it as adopting the technology of other companies and other countries so they can then develop their own.

DOBBS: But now China has moved even higher up the manufacturing chain to where the real value is. Copying cars.

MAXTON: In 1996, I interviewed the head of Volkswagen in China at the time, and I asked him whether or not it was possible that we could see counterfeit cars in China. And he just laughed. He said, "This is impossible." Within four years, there they were.

DOBBS: The Chinese counterfeit car industry is already moving into high gear with copies of Volkswagens, Toyotas and General Motors cars filling the roads. Jili is one of China's private top carmakers. Jili has produced three different vehicles remarkably similar to Toyota's at half the price.

TIMOTHY TRAINER, INTL. ANTI-COUNTERFEIT COALITION: What makes it possible as far as counterfeiting cars is the fact that you now have foreign manufacturers in China. So, clearly, the know-how exists today much more so than it did seven or eight years ago.

DOBBS: Chery, another Chinese carmaker, has made an even bolder grab.

TRAINER: The funniest one of all is this one called the QQ, which was launched in mid mid-2003, and it's a copy of a Chevrolet Spark which is being made by General Motors. And it was actually launched ahead of General Motor's car. So here was the copy appearing in the market before the original.

DOBBS: How did this happen? The Chinese government began encouraging automobile technology transfer from Western joint venture partners as early as 1994. But industry experts like Volkswagen's Martin Post miscalculated about how far the Chinese would go.

MAXTON: Well, I think he underestimated the determination of the Chinese to do this. DOBBS: So far, China's court system offers no protection.

MAXTON: The application of the rule of law in China is not the same as it is elsewhere. If you're going to go invest in China and you're going to expect the rule of law to protect you, protect your technology, then you're dreaming, quite frankly.

TRAINER: It's still a developing judicial system. You're taking a lot of risks, so it is a bit of a gamble.

DOBBS: But there are other reasons beyond China's judicial system.

MAXTON: The world auto market is flat. And China is the most attractive, fastest growing vehicle market in the world. And the big multinational companies are just desperate to get a slice of this cake. They see the prize as being greater than the cost.

DOBBS: The foreign carmakers seem to fear if they complain too loudly, they may well find themselves locked out of the world's fastest growing car market.

MAXTON: Everybody sees China as the answer to their problems for growth. I don't think it is. I think China is like the wild west. I think China will take your technology. I think most of the foreign companies are going to lose out. But China, 3,000 years of culture, never been colonized, never been economically colonized for sure doesn't see why it should be beholden to America or Europe for the technology in such a basic industry.
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