WASHINGTON, June 29: China will emerge as a superpower in the next half-century, perhaps even within the next quarter-century.
This is the assessment of United States Deputy Defence Secretary Paul Wolfowitz, who says Taiwan is at the core of the US-Sino relationship, and America is firmly committed to seeing the issue resolved without the use of force.
In an interview published in The Washington Times on Wednesday, Mr Wolfowitz, regarded as among the more experienced Asia hands in the Bush administration, said: " I think the right way to think about China is that it's a country that is almost certain to become a superpower in the next half-century, and maybe in the next quarter-century, and that's pretty fast by historical standards."
The question was whether the emerging China would live at peace with its neighbours, Mr Wolfowitz added, "or will it go the way of traditional power diplomacy, which I think in this era with these weapons would be a tragic mistake...I don't think China has to be a threat, but I think if we're complacent, then we could actually contribute to the opposite effect."
There has been a constant refrain in media commentaries and analyses here and elsewhere since the Bush administration took office that the US wants to build up India as an Asian counterweight to China. This view has never been officially acknowledged, but India has not been loath to take advantage of the general perception and has seen its ties with the US develop to a qualitatively new level. Despite opposition within liberal circles in India and even within the Indian cabinet, New Delhi has apparently even agreed to some form of military cooperation with the US.
Since Pakistan is closely allied with China, the evolving pattern of post-Cold War strategic relationships in the region has been a subject of considerable study and interest in think-tanks.
Mr Wolfowitz, in his interview, said the build-up of short-range missiles opposite Taiwan violated Beijing's pledge to resolve the standoff with the island peacefully, but he thought it was "terribly important that everybody behave sensibly and maturely and keep that situation a peaceful one, which it has been for quite a long time now."
Early in the Bush administration, a US spy plane was involved in a collision with a Chinese fighter and was forced to make an emergency landing in Chinese territory. The incident led to tensions that threatened to affect a planned visit to Beijing by President Bush, but was ultimately resolved through diplomatic negotiations. The US plane was dismantled and returned to the US, and discussions are now continuing on what Washington should pay to Beijing for the aircraft's stay in China.
Asked about prospects of China's leaders making political reforms in the future, Mr Wolfowitz said that over the long run, the Chinese political system was going to have to change. "Does that mean it will (change) quickly or overnight? Absolutely not. And I don't particularly like being associated with theories of economic inevitability because so many of them have been wrong in the past."
This is the assessment of United States Deputy Defence Secretary Paul Wolfowitz, who says Taiwan is at the core of the US-Sino relationship, and America is firmly committed to seeing the issue resolved without the use of force.
In an interview published in The Washington Times on Wednesday, Mr Wolfowitz, regarded as among the more experienced Asia hands in the Bush administration, said: " I think the right way to think about China is that it's a country that is almost certain to become a superpower in the next half-century, and maybe in the next quarter-century, and that's pretty fast by historical standards."
The question was whether the emerging China would live at peace with its neighbours, Mr Wolfowitz added, "or will it go the way of traditional power diplomacy, which I think in this era with these weapons would be a tragic mistake...I don't think China has to be a threat, but I think if we're complacent, then we could actually contribute to the opposite effect."
There has been a constant refrain in media commentaries and analyses here and elsewhere since the Bush administration took office that the US wants to build up India as an Asian counterweight to China. This view has never been officially acknowledged, but India has not been loath to take advantage of the general perception and has seen its ties with the US develop to a qualitatively new level. Despite opposition within liberal circles in India and even within the Indian cabinet, New Delhi has apparently even agreed to some form of military cooperation with the US.
Since Pakistan is closely allied with China, the evolving pattern of post-Cold War strategic relationships in the region has been a subject of considerable study and interest in think-tanks.
Mr Wolfowitz, in his interview, said the build-up of short-range missiles opposite Taiwan violated Beijing's pledge to resolve the standoff with the island peacefully, but he thought it was "terribly important that everybody behave sensibly and maturely and keep that situation a peaceful one, which it has been for quite a long time now."
Early in the Bush administration, a US spy plane was involved in a collision with a Chinese fighter and was forced to make an emergency landing in Chinese territory. The incident led to tensions that threatened to affect a planned visit to Beijing by President Bush, but was ultimately resolved through diplomatic negotiations. The US plane was dismantled and returned to the US, and discussions are now continuing on what Washington should pay to Beijing for the aircraft's stay in China.
Asked about prospects of China's leaders making political reforms in the future, Mr Wolfowitz said that over the long run, the Chinese political system was going to have to change. "Does that mean it will (change) quickly or overnight? Absolutely not. And I don't particularly like being associated with theories of economic inevitability because so many of them have been wrong in the past."
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