China This, China That...

[GTaudiophile]

I attended a conference the other day involving quite a few academics/scholars/professors and I was astounded by the amount of pro-China rhetoric.

One speaker went on, quite unabashedly, to proclaim his admiration for the Chinese government, extolling it for its efficiency, "It just works. When number one [the party member] tells you to do something, you do it, and it just gets done. Then there's the 'or else' part but at least it just gets done." (Or something to that effect.)

Anyone else getting a little sick of the China bubble? Seems like we're building them up just as much as the housing market a decade ago.

 

[werepossum]

Academia is largely the province of the left, and the left loves the authoritarian. The harsher, the better. Also, the left has dropped its support for the individual in favor of what Hillary Clinton termed the war on individuality. Chinese culture, even before communism, puts a great emphasis on the larger unit over the smaller - country over city, city over family, family over individual - and so also fits well with the American left.

Yeah, I too am extremely tired of the pro-China talk, but we must fawn before our new overlords.

Love your sig by the way, that's a great quote.

 

[Schadenfroh]

My girlfriend is (Red) Chinese.

Their government, corporations and what regulators that exist (which are all basically one) are insanely corrupt, makes Chicago and Louisiana look like the pinnacle of integrity.

A corporation (that "influenced" the local government) is even enacting eminent domain to seize a large chunk of her hometown.

Even at the local level, officials, the wealthy and those in tight with them can get away with murder.

Their censorship of media and history is unreal, she was not even aware of some of the atrocities committed by their government until reading about them here. Her and her friends were shocked at how much was hidden from them.

 

[sandorski]

China isn't a bubble. It sucks, but they are on a trajectory that is going to change everything, whether we like it or not.

 

[MovingTarget]

I wouldn't pin this on 'the left' as loving China due to its authoritarian ways. If anything, they seem to be more quick to condemn China's abuse of its citizens' civil liberties and worker's rights, lack of and disregard for freedom of press/speech, environmental pollution, corruption, etc. The right has done more to promote China's economic might in the name of making a quick buck. The anti-China crowd is larger than you think, simply not as vocal about it.

 

[werepossum]

I wouldn't pin this on 'the left' as loving China due to its authoritarian ways. If anything, they seem to be more quick to condemn China's abuse of its citizens' civil liberties and worker's rights, lack of and disregard for freedom of press/speech, environmental pollution, corruption, etc. The right has done more to promote China's economic might in the name of making a quick buck. The anti-China crowd is larger than you think, simply not as vocal about it.

Bill Clinton is singularly more responsible than the rest of the world combined in making Red China anything more than North Korea writ large. In removing almost all technology transfer barriers to that nation, he made it possible for them to make up a decades-long tech deficiency. That directly led to manufacturing flowing into that country, as it then had virtually unlimited cheap labor and stability without that pesky 1960s technology limit. Last time I looked, Bill Clinton is NOT on the right, unless you think making spending your own money on your own health care a criminal offense is somehow right.

 

[Ns1]

I would love for china to be #1 so everyone can hate them instead.

 

[theeedude]

It's not that China is this or that, is that US has self castrated and become a eunuch. It used to be us doing great infrastructure projects, now we have record numbers of people unemployed, and we can't muster the will to do anything with that untapped potential. We are basically drifting, while they at least know where they want to go and are working to get there.

 

[JeepinEd]

It's not that China is this or that, is that US has self castrated and become a eunuch. It used to be us doing great infrastructure projects, now we have record numbers of people unemployed, and we can't muster the will to do anything with that untapped potential. We are basically drifting, while they at least know where they want to go and are working to get there.

I remember when everyone kept harping about how great Japan is. Even the L.A. Times had a commercial in which they stated "At the rate they're going, in 10 years they could own the world" - or something to that effect. China will soon hit the same wall Japan did.

 

[sandorski]

I remember when everyone kept harping about how great Japan is. Even the L.A. Times had a commercial in which they stated "At the rate they're going, in 10 years they could own the world" - or something to that effect. China will soon hit the same wall Japan did.

That would still make China the #1 Economy, by far. Japan hitting the "Wall" is not near as bad as you think.

 

[emilyek]

I attended a conference the other day involving quite a few academics/scholars/professors and I was astounded by the amount of pro-China rhetoric.

One speaker went on, quite unabashedly, to proclaim his admiration for the Chinese government, extolling it for its efficiency, "It just works. When number one [the party member] tells you to do something, you do it, and it just gets done. Then there's the 'or else' part but at least it just gets done." (Or something to that effect.)

Anyone else getting a little sick of the China bubble? Seems like we're building them up just as much as the housing market a decade ago.

The Ameican funny-money economy is played out; the globalists have sucked all the real value (which bouys up the imaginary money which exists at many multiples of the real value) from it they can. Their next duty, therefore, is to use academic-media power to talk up China, so the masses whose country they've wrecked will toe the line on Chinese excellence; they will then continue being rich speculating on labor, this time Chinese labor.

Academia is largely the province of the left, and the left loves the authoritarian.

If manipulating and pushing around imaginary money keeps the champagne flowing, then they are willing to overlook the autocratic dictatorship. They'll be perfectly happy living as a member of the superwealthy in a dying but non-dictatorship which poses no threat to them while they make their money elsewhere.

 

[Modelworks]

China has a lot of the problems we have and worse. China is listed as having better education than the USA but they don't mention that every day thousands of graduates in China pack the public transportation so tight the doors can barely close because they cannot get a job because while they have the degree it does no good if you can't get a job in that field.

http://roomfordebate.blogs.nytimes.com/2010/03/07/educated-and-fearing-the-future-in-china/

Families often go 6-9 months without seeing each other because jobs are so scarce that if offered you take it even if the husband or wife have to live in separate parts of the country.

China invest millions every day in green energy, but not because they care about the environment. It is because their energy demands are growing so fast that if they don't do something ASAP they will be sitting in the dark.

The policies China has are not made because it is something they choose to do, they are faced with massive population growth, shrinking resources and scrambling to keep from being overwhelmed.

 

[ShawnD1]

I attended a conference the other day involving quite a few academics/scholars/professors and I was astounded by the amount of pro-China rhetoric.

One speaker went on, quite unabashedly, to proclaim his admiration for the Chinese government, extolling it for its efficiency, "It just works. When number one [the party member] tells you to do something, you do it, and it just gets done. Then there's the 'or else' part but at least it just gets done." (Or something to that effect.)

He has a point. Wasn't there some scandal about poisoned milk in China where the guy running of the factory was executed very shortly after that? China doesn't screw around. If you fuck up, you're done. Pretty much all of Asia is like that.

Why is Japan's crime rate so low? You guessed it
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Criminal_justice_system_of_Japan#Conviction_rate

Many Western human rights organizations alleged that the high conviction rate is due to rampant use of conviction solely based on confession, notwithstanding Article 38 of Japan's Constitution, which categorically requires that "no person shall be convicted or punished in cases where the only proof against him is his own confession," and that no person can be convicted unless accompanied by other evidence to corroborate that confession. Confessions are often obtained after long periods of questioning by police. This can, at times, take weeks or months during which time the suspect is in detention and can be prevented from contacting a lawyer or family.[2] Thus, since the suspect is put through prolonged strain, stress and pressure, the reliability of such confessions can be questioned. To Japanese citizens and police, however, the arrest itself already creates the presumption of guilt which needs only to be verified via a confession.[3]

 

[LegendKiller]

That would still make China the #1 Economy, by far. Japan hitting the "Wall" is not near as bad as you think.

Even with a 10% growth rate they won't hit the US in 10 years. They need ~14 years with the US growing at 1% per year. If the US changes to even 2% 16 years and 3% 19 years.

When China hits the wall it won't be pretty.

 

[LegendKiller]

I attended a conference the other day involving quite a few academics/scholars/professors and I was astounded by the amount of pro-China rhetoric.

One speaker went on, quite unabashedly, to proclaim his admiration for the Chinese government, extolling it for its efficiency, "It just works. When number one [the party member] tells you to do something, you do it, and it just gets done. Then there's the 'or else' part but at least it just gets done." (Or something to that effect.)

Anyone else getting a little sick of the China bubble? Seems like we're building them up just as much as the housing market a decade ago.

Yeah, it's called a command economy. It will collapse in a spectacular fashion.

 

[sandorski]

Even with a 10% growth rate they won't hit the US in 10 years. They need ~14 years with the US growing at 1% per year. If the US changes to even 2% 16 years and 3% 19 years.

When China hits the wall it won't be pretty.

What's the rush? 19 years is nothing.

 

[LegendKiller]

What's the rush? 19 years is nothing.

lol. Yeah, "nothing". 19 years ago the internet was a joke and PC's cost $3,000 for a decent one. Cars looked like ass. Our GDP was 5.947tr and I was in 6th grade making out in a hallway with a girl named Janey.

Nope, nothing at all.

 

[sandorski]

lol. Yeah, "nothing". 19 years ago the internet was a joke and PC's cost $3,000 for a decent one. Cars looked like ass. Our GDP was 5.947tr and I was in 6th grade making out in a hallway with a girl named Janey.

Nope, nothing at all.

It isn't. Unless the World ends in 2012 anyway.

 

[bigdog1218]

I remember when everyone kept harping about how great Japan is. Even the L.A. Times had a commercial in which they stated "At the rate they're going, in 10 years they could own the world" - or something to that effect. China will soon hit the same wall Japan did.

Everyone seems to forget this. Japan took over a decade to recover after their "miracle" run.

 

[blackangst1]

I remember when everyone kept harping about how great Japan is. Even the L.A. Times had a commercial in which they stated "At the rate they're going, in 10 years they could own the world" - or something to that effect. China will soon hit the same wall Japan did.

Everyone seems to forget this. Japan took over a decade to recover after their "miracle" run.

Yep. In the 80's it was Japan this and Japan that...

http://blogs.reuters.com/gregg-easterbrook/2010/08/18/china-as-number-one-remember-japan-in-the-80s/

China as number one? Remember Japan in the ’80s


An Asian nation with a roaring economy will eclipse the United States … America has entered a cycle of decline, while the sun is rising in the East … soon all our products will be made overseas and America will falter … doom is at hand.

The above paragraph does not describe Monday’s news about the expansion of the Chinese economy — this is what opinion-makers were saying about Japan in the 1980s. And how’d that work out for you, Tokyo?

“Experts,” the New York Times intoned on Monday, are impressed by “China’s clout” and believe “China will pass the U.S. as the world’s biggest economy as early as 2030.” If experts think this, then it’s certain not to happen.

It is wise therefore to remember what was said about Japan in the 1980s. Japan’s GDP growth was rapid, Japanese investors were snapping up New York City real estate, Sony just bought CBS Records. Japan’s Ministry of International Trade and Industry was whispered about as possessing near-supernatural prowess. Commentators said only “industrial policy” – direct government control of business decision-making – could save America from becoming a vassal to Tokyo’s super-ultra-unstoppable economy.

As for those experts who think China will pass the United States for number one economy in just 20 years?
This year China is on track for a $5.2 trillion GDP, very impressive compared to where China was economically just a generation ago — but still staring at taillights of the United States, whose GDP should finish the year at around $15 trillion. Even if China’s annualized growth stabilizes at 6 percent — and most nations would be quite happy with that level — it will take China until about 2030 to match America’s $15 trillion GDP.

But the United States won’t be sitting still. If U.S. growth is 3 percent, half of China’s, in 2030 the American GDP will be about $27 trillion, comfortably ahead. If the United States sustains half the growth rate of China indefinitely, China’s GDP will not pass America’s for several generations.

 

[WackyDan]

I worked for a Chinese company for four and a half years here in the US. They paid me and my roughly 2500 American peers fairly well. They also invested nearly 80 million dollars building a new corporate campus here and made that campus their global operations HQ. They had a very positive contribution to the state tax coffers and local economy. They also make some of their product here in N. America as shipping heavy items would be too expensive from mainland China.

So... I don't think everything China is bad for the U.S., but I would like to see an environment here that does foster less off shoring of US labor.

 

[ericlp]

China isn't a bubble. It sucks, but they are on a trajectory that is going to change everything, whether we like it or not.

Well, it's going to force us to accept second best or actually get off our lazy asses and start working again. Inventing stuff and making science cool again.

I think it's a good thing. You will see some amazing things come from China a heck of a lot faster then then slow ass Americans. I think it's a good thing. We need some competition and America needs to be competitive again. Hopefully we can get are act together and still remain #1 ... We'll see!

 

[Riceninja]

the reason why everyones talking about china is because no one can avoid it. personally i see a lot more negative coverage than positive, so i dont know what the OP is getting at. human rights this...censorship that...its all you hear.

and for those who think china will hit a wall like japan have to realize that china doesnt all the hard limitations that japan faced - population, land and natural resources. simply put, that country has completely modernized, with a western level standard of living. if china walls after hitting this standard, their gdp would be 7-10 times higher than today. that's the reason why there is real potential for china to surpass the states.

as for the government...yes, changes have to be made. an authoritarian system isnt sustainable with such a growing and educated middle class, but its the best for china at this point in their development. it cant afford to have public debates and votes about every bridge, every railroad, every stimulus package. this is a country that is 4-5 times more populated than the states, with a lot of uneducated farmers who, in honesty, will derail the country with their entitlement and ignorance if they're allowed to vote. look at india as a primary example of how democracy in a highly populated, low educated 3rd world country can completely stagnate its development. 20 years ago india was actually ahead of chinese gdp - now? its not even top 10.

thats the one good thing about this system - they can plan out things in decades instead of election cycles, and lay down infrastructure projects on a scale never seen before. invest heavily into building national industries - ship building/metal making, for instance. all this is necessary to support their breakneck growth.

of course china has serious issues to deal with moving forward - parts of the manufacturing cities are completely polluted, and there's a growing gap in the rich and the poor (although the income for low wage manufacturing workers in the coastal cities have gone up 50% in the last two years), and of course freedom of speech. meanwhile they have to continue to create something like 30 million jobs a year just to maintain the current employment level. so whether you hate the system or not, you gotta admit that the people at the top need medals for keeping it all together. they really know their shit.

theres a lot more to china than "damn commies with their lead poison and disregard for human life" or "omg they own our debt theyre gonna take over". i live in vancouver and went to uni and high school here, but ive worked in hongkong and have extensive family connections to business owners and mid-level city officials in the mainland, so its interesting to hear the western perspective (both apologists and fearmongers) and the chinese views on their future (its definitely not commie worshipping). anyways, i can write entire essays on this stuff

 

[LegendKiller]

Those who laud the Chinese system ignore the massive issues it has and will have in the near future. One of the biggest transfers of non-performing loans in history, far larger than the Fed's actions, took place back in 97 or so, cleansing the Chinese banks. However, as with any demand economy with the banks having faced demands to lend, they have lent more and are in trouble...

http://www.nakedcapitalism.com/2010...ans-debt-banking-system-risk-understated.html

To address only a portion of the humanitarian issue you can look at these. Our cheap goods come at a price. The price for american made would be higher, but the pollution would be lower due to our regulatory system.

http://www.chinahush.com/2009/10/21/amazing-pictures-pollution-in-china/


China is in a race against time and money. The ruling class, military, and aristocracy hope they can build the country fast enough to eliminate the need for an export-driven economy. They do this while ignoring inflation, bad loans, massive pollution, civil unrest, and trade imbalances.

 

[Londo_Jowo]

It's not that China is this or that, is that US has self castrated and become a eunuch. It used to be us doing great infrastructure projects, now we have record numbers of people unemployed, and we can't muster the will to do anything with that untapped potential. We are basically drifting, while they at least know where they want to go and are working to get there.

We can borrow more money from China to fund your infrastructure projects using the unemployed. Or we could just make them work for their unemployment money they receive for sitting on their asses.