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China losing steam on outsourcing?

Engineer

Elite Member
Being labeled a "protectionist" of US manufacturing and jobs, I see this as (temporary) great. I hope the trend continues. Of course, we have to worry that the outsourcing will shift to other parts of the world, but at least it may level off (I hope). (fingers crossed)

Edit: Seems (after reading closer) more like Taiwanese factories not starting up in China. Again, lets hope that this spreads to US manufacturing in China as well.

Click me!

DONGGUAN, China ? Thousands of foreign businesspeople, primarily Taiwanese, helped turn this southern Chinese city into one of the world's busiest export manufacturing centers.


Now, amid rising wage and pension costs, energy shortages, tighter government regulation, traffic bottlenecks and other concerns, some of them are starting to look elsewhere. Their restlessness reflects a dark side to China's economic boom, as growth pains and other issues prompt companies to reconsider starting up or expanding in China.

Chang Han Wen is having second thoughts. He came here from Taiwan in early 1991 when the area was still largely farmland, launching a shoe assembly line with 200 workers. He has since opened five factories, including three shoe plants that employ 3,000 people and produce 1.5 million pairs of specialty boots and high-end shoes a year for export to the United States and Europe.

But his sixth plant, a garment operation, sits empty. Chang has indefinitely postponed its opening, anxious about China's tense trade relations with the West and the threat of more quotas that would limit clothing exports. That's only part of his worries.

This year Dongguan's minimum wage jumped more than 27%. Even with the increase, employers are struggling with worker shortages. Government inspectors are making the rounds at factories, enforcing work-hour rules and pension contributions that officials paid little attention to in the past. Electricity is in short supply, as is fuel.

All in all, Chang says, things have gotten so much tougher that his next investment may be in Vietnam, where many Taiwanese have gone.

"For manufacturers here, the golden period has passed," he said.

To be sure, Dongguan still enjoys major advantages over other places in China and certainly most other countries, thanks to cheap labor and access to strong infrastructure and extensive supply chains.

But Chang's disenchantment reflects the city's fading allure for some Taiwanese and, more broadly, significant changes that are taking place in China's export manufacturing base as foreign investments show signs of leveling off.

After four years of booming growth, foreign direct investments into China have flattened this year. That signals the waning of massive capital inflows, particularly in the electronics sector, that followed China's ascension to the World Trade Organization in 2001.

Yuan Gangmin, a senior economist with the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences in Beijing, says an investment slowdown was bound to hit places such as Dongguan even harder. Government policies overly emphasized the development of export industries in coastal regions ? and now that's coming home to roost.

"Such kinds of shortsighted policy discrimination led to the high cost of immobile resources like energy, land and environment," Yuan said. He saw a silver lining in this picture: It could spur development in the lagging western areas of China, which have more abundant resources.

Dongguan, part of Guangdong province and an area known as the Pearl River Delta, was one of the earliest to benefit from China's policy of opening the nation to foreign investment. With money flowing from Hong Kong and Taiwan, tens of thousands of factories were established in the Pearl River area, making it the world's factory floor for shoes, watches, clothes, electronics, toys and other consumer goods.

But with China's economic growth spreading to other regions, and rural incomes improving, Dongguan is facing stiffer competition for workers, who are increasingly mobile.

At the same time, China is moving up the technology ladder and encouraging the buildup of environmentally cleaner industries. Local governments are being told to stop the often mad rush to put up factories and develop for the sake of generating impressive economic statistics.

The upshot is that traditional manufacturers aren't as welcome as before. And the Taiwanese in Dongguan are feeling that as much as anyone.

Taiwanese investments in Dongguan took off in the early 1990s as restrictions were eased, despite political tensions across the Taiwan Strait. With more than 6,000 companies registered in the city, the Taiwanese are the single largest group of foreign investors in Dongguan. Many of them are in labor-intensive sectors such as footwear, furniture, handbags and toys, although the share of high-tech companies is increasing.

The Taiwanese presence in Dongguan is so large that the first Taiwan schools in mainland China were started here. Tens of thousands of Taiwanese bought homes and live in the city. Taiwanese entrepreneurs brought in machines, raw materials and manufacturing know-how from their homeland and took advantage of the land, favorable tax and other policies and abundant labor force that Dongguan offered.

But in the last couple of years, one of their biggest problems has been with labor shortages. By government estimates, about 2 million jobs went begging last year in the Pearl River Delta. Many workers who had migrated to the urban coast from farms out west didn't return to their factory jobs after going back home for the Spring Festival holiday in February. Others have been heading north to Zhejiang province and up along the Yangtze River, where wages tend to be higher.

In response, Dongguan raised the minimum monthly wage by about $15, to $70.

Lai Wenfeng, a scholar at Jinan University in nearby Guangzhou who has studied Taiwanese investment in Dongguan, says the Taiwan entrepreneurs are partly to blame for the current labor constraints. They should have offered better pay, benefits and working conditions years earlier, he suggests.

"We shouldn't feel sorry if some factories are leaving," he said.

Besides lifting wages, Taiwan-run factories in Dongguan have made other changes recently. At Chang's largest shoe operation, Four Star Shoes Co., he converted the pay system for most of his 1,100 employees from piecework to a straight monthly rate. A five-day workweek was adopted. Overall, Four Star's labor costs shot up 40% to 50% in the last year, says Wang Bi Hui, the company's vice general manager.

To improve recruitment and retention of workers, Four Star built dormitories for workers. A large dining hall was added, as well as a movie room and a library that's expected to hold 1,000 books when completed.

The higher wages and better living conditions have helped employers reduce but not cure their labor shortage headaches. Dongguan Yi Chen Can Factory, which set up in the city in 1992, also spiffed up its housing facilities, lowering the number of workers in a dorm room to five or six and adding a basketball playground as well as a chess and card room.

Still, the company, which makes cans for containing gifts and other uses, relies on several agencies to help recruit workers. As labor costs have risen, the factory has supplemented its employment of 400 with about 100 temporary staff, who don't receive government-required health and welfare benefits for regular employees, spokesman Zhang Min says.

Yi Chen Can Factory has to cut expenses where it can, Min says, because "our other costs are also increasing a lot these days." Metal prices, for example, have soared, driven up by China's big appetite for natural resources. And electricity bills sometimes run triple normal costs during steamy summer days, when Guangdong province and other industrial belts impose limits on use.

Power shortages aren't just in the south, of course. It's up and down the coast. China's energy supply capacity hasn't kept up with the country's booming growth. Like many companies, Zhang's can factory fires up generators to keep things running during rotating blackout and red-alert days. But it takes diesel fuel to power generators, and in recent months, Guangdong province in particular has seen a supply crunch.

It also slows down delivery of goods. "Many of my drivers are coming back and complaining that they cannot get enough diesel," said Sun Ai Hua, who runs a small trucking firm in Dongguan. "These days I have to apologize and explain a lot to my customers."

Highway traffic congestion in and out of Dongguan can be bad enough without fuel problems. The city has built more roads, but numerous construction projects and burgeoning domestic demand for consumer goods and expansions by giants such as Wal-Mart Stores Inc., which operates its distribution center in nearby Shenzhen, all add to the freight traffic on highways.

Samuel Kuo, the Taiwanese owner of Lacquer Craft, a maker of high-end furniture for exports, believes that Taiwan investment in Dongguan is still growing but definitely more slowly. Many furniture makers, he says, already have set up shop in Vietnam and Indonesia. Apart from higher labor costs in China, he says, the moves were prompted by anti-dumping duties of as much as 198% imposed by the United States.

Kuo's company pays a relatively modest 2.6% anti-dumping tax. And he hasn't followed others to Vietnam. But Kuo doesn't preclude the possibility of going there. Vietnam-based furniture makers don't face U.S. anti-dumping duties, and that country's wages are significantly lower than China's. Kuo's increased labor costs in Dongguan include contributions to government-mandated retirement plans, which have risen 24% recently ? no small matter for a company with 4,000 employees. Taiwanese entrepreneurs figure it will take a few more years before Vietnam's infrastructure and production quality can catch up to China's. But it may be even sooner than that for some industries such as textiles.

"Vietnam has similar living habits of Chinese, similar cultural background, so it's easier for management," said Chen Qibin, vice general manager of Roo Hsing Garment Co., which added two more production lines in Vietnam this year.

These days it's not easy for entrepreneurs like Chen to expand in Dongguan, even if they wanted to. For starters, land in the city is much harder to come by.

"Government officials have made it clear that Dongguan should no longer sacrifice environment to achieve speedy development," said Chen Xihui, director of Dongguan's Taiwan Affairs Bureau. "Instead, we should work on scientific and sustainable development."

Chen cited the Shanhu technology industrial zone as an example of this new attitude. The 28-square-mile park stands out among a sprawl of factories and dusty roads, with its lake and flower gardens. Universities and service firms already have moved in there. Traditional manufacturers are conspicuously absent.

Said Chen, "Companies that cannot meet our environmental standard will not be able to enter the zone."
 
My opinion is that free trade and outsourcing is for the long term good of the world. For the short term, we will sometimes suffer a little pain as the economy shifts around. But in the long term, it's good for us too. For a historical perspective, this seems to be true. Most of the countries that used to be a source of cheap labor that we "exploited" are now doing very well and have a high standard of living (Japan, Korea, Singapore etc).

And all the dire predictions that we will become a third world nation has never come true.
 
Originally posted by: StormRider
My opinion is that free trade and outsourcing is for the long term good of the world. For the short term, we will sometimes suffer a little pain as the economy shifts around. But in the long term, it's good for us too. For a historical perspective, this seems to be true. Most of the countries that used to be a source of cheap labor that we "exploited" are now doing very well and have a high standard of living (Japan, Korea, Singapore etc).

And all the dire predictions that we will become a third world nation has never come true.

Don't get out of your little Surburbia much eh?

Try checking out the depressed areas of most of our cities.

If you ventured down the depressed areas around New Orleans with your SUV there is a good chance you would not make it out alive.
 
The quick surge to gobble up the 3rd world talent is but a minor blip on the radar of what is to come. There is no way for expensive labour to compete with cheap labor because they cheap labor is more quickly and easily discarded for new cheap sources of labor. Why? Because these 3rd world countries have no labour rights. At least when the labor was done stateside you knew the worker had a halfway decent chance at a good life. Not so for the other 80% of the world.
 
Originally posted by: MadRat
There is no way for expensive labour to compete with cheap labor because they cheap labor is more quickly and easily discarded for new cheap sources of labor. Why? Because these 3rd world countries have no labour rights. At least when the labor was done stateside you knew the worker had a halfway decent chance at a good life. Not so for the other 80% of the world.

Thank you for pointing out the obvious point that "free trade" advocates like to ignore.

And of course the US-installed government in Iraq hasn't changed the Saddam-era labor laws.

And domestically, in the current administration the Department of Labor has spent all its energy attacking unions, instead of performing its ostensible role of defending workers.
 
Originally posted by: dmcowen674
Originally posted by: StormRider
My opinion is that free trade and outsourcing is for the long term good of the world. For the short term, we will sometimes suffer a little pain as the economy shifts around. But in the long term, it's good for us too. For a historical perspective, this seems to be true. Most of the countries that used to be a source of cheap labor that we "exploited" are now doing very well and have a high standard of living (Japan, Korea, Singapore etc).

And all the dire predictions that we will become a third world nation has never come true.

Don't get out of your little Surburbia much eh?

Try checking out the depressed areas of most of our cities.

If you ventured down the depressed areas around New Orleans with your SUV there is a good chance you would not make it out alive.

And your point is what? We aren't a third world country, especially considering we easily have the highest GDP/Capita of any large nation.
 
Originally posted by: Red and black
Originally posted by: ntdz

And your point is what? We aren't a third world country, especially considering we easily have the highest GDP/Capita of any large nation.

Relative inequality is very high in the US. The average income of the country is high, but that's skewed by outliers at the high end.

An interesting statistic:
http://www.nationmaster.com/graph-T/eco_pop_bel_med_inc

The GAO, when reporting GNP and per capita statistics, used to use a 5/5 rule to find a more accurate representation. That is they generally threw out the 5% on each extreme. The top 5% of America really skews the average income right now.
 
To the OP: The article says that the minimum wage is up 27% in *one* city in China. There are plenty of other cities. Besides, if wages get too high, expect the government to step in and enforce some obedience.

As for manufacturing capital relocating out of the US -- I think that process is just about over now. Everything for sale at WalMart is made in China.
 
Originally posted by: Red and black
To the OP: The article says that the minimum wage is up 27% in *one* city in China. There are plenty of other cities. Besides, if wages get too high, expect the government to step in and enforce some obedience.

As for manufacturing capital relocating out of the US -- I think that process is just about over now. Everything for sale at WalMart is made in China.

Hence why I said "Parts of China" in the subtitle. I guess I should have said "One City".
 
Cheap labor is a lame excuse to justify outsourcing.......it's just archaic accounting methods that are
being used that make outsourcing seem advantageous........
 
Originally posted by: nergee
Cheap labor is a lame excuse to justify outsourcing.......it's just archaic accounting methods that are
being used that make outsourcing seem advantageous........


I don't know...$20.00 per hour vs $0.08 per hour? Even with overseas shipping, that's quite the difference. Even at $5.15 (minimum wage), $0.08 seems damn low. Mexico has near $0.87 per hour in the border towns. About 6 times lower than US minimum wage and with much lower shipping costs than China.
 
Originally posted by: Engineer
I don't know...$20.00 per hour vs $0.08 per hour? Even with overseas shipping, that's quite the difference. Even at $5.15 (minimum wage), $0.08 seems damn low. Mexico has near $0.87 per hour in the border towns. About 6 times lower than US minimum wage and with much lower shipping costs than China.

Capital, land and distribution expenses largely grow in cost to make up for it. I never see these details given any attention.

 
Originally posted by: MadRat
Originally posted by: Engineer
I don't know...$20.00 per hour vs $0.08 per hour? Even with overseas shipping, that's quite the difference. Even at $5.15 (minimum wage), $0.08 seems damn low. Mexico has near $0.87 per hour in the border towns. About 6 times lower than US minimum wage and with much lower shipping costs than China.

Capital, land and distribution expenses largely grow in cost to make up for it. I never see these details given any attention.


Hmmmm...never thought of it (or have seen it before). Is land in China very high (in US dollars)? Mexican land is cheap as dirt (no pun intended). Capital investment can be high in China but much of Mexican capital can be simply transferred from shutdown US plants (as in my company's case). Good points to remember - other costs involved.
 
Soon they will need to find a much poorer place to do outsourcing to. and of Course
Wal-mart will lead the way.
 
I read a report that indicated that many other countries have a viewed tarnished image of the US and some have even indicated that they would rather do business with China vs the US (not just on economic factors such as cheap labor, etc). I think we've hurt our ownselves with our policies and forced lied wars.
 
Originally posted by: Lonyo

BBC
Not the US, but India is also investing in foreign economies (such as the UK), and the level of investment is (IIRC) growing quick substantially.
Not sure what the situation might be like in the US.

Lets kick them in the balls by making their IP (intellectual property) only good for a few years. The spagetti code those bastards write isn't worth the electrons its printed on anyhow. 😛
 
So, uhh, Chinese labor rates went up from 10 cents/ hr to 12.7 cents /hr? Big deal. I don't really know what their rates are, to be honest, but it'll take a lot more than that to stem the tide.

Part of the current problem is monetary, with the dollar being overvalued. So savvy US investors want to convert their dollars into Chinese assets before the inevitable adjustment occurs. Hey, it's basically free money. Despite their protestations, the Bush admin is doing everything they can to prop up the dollar, principally in providing a safe investment vehicle for all those excess overseas dollars- deficit spending. When the Chinese seek other avenues, like the Unocal deal, the bushies try to cut them off... so the Chinese will console themselves by demanding more interest on the Bonds that the Admin offers at auction...

So the flood will continue. Chinese goods are unbelievably inexpensive- even if the price went up 25%, it would do little to change anything... When the inevitable currency correction occurs, it will be large, very large, on the order of what happened wrt Argentina. Invest in China, India, Vietnam, like the bigboys, or just take your economic ass-whupping like a man, your choice...
 
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