yllus
Elite Member & Lifer
- Aug 20, 2000
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The Economist has a little bit on how Chavez has continued to stack the deck in his own favour.
Venezuela's legislative election: Chávez grapples with a 50/50 nation
Venezuela's legislative election: Chávez grapples with a 50/50 nation
The polls suggest that the electorate is almost equally divided. Even GIS XXI, a pollster with close ties to the government, gives the ruling Unified Socialist Party (PSUV) and its Communist allies a lead of only 5.2% over the opposition alliance. But changes to the electoral system rammed through by the government mean that a narrow lead is enough to give the PSUV a landslide victory. The changes abolish proportional representation, even though it is written into the 1999 constitution. And poorer, rural states where Mr Chávez has more support will be significantly over-represented in the new assembly.
Jesse Chacón, a former interior minister who now runs GIS XXI, reckons that the government can retain a two-thirds majority in the assembly with only 52% of the vote. He says that even if the votes were evenly split, the government would still win 97 seats to the oppositions 68. In contrast, the opposition needs up to 53% of the popular vote just to win a simple majority of seats, according to Francisco Toro, an opposition blogger. The changes to the electoral system have also had the effect of penalising third parties. A group of moderate former chavistas is unlikely to win many seats outside the home state of its most popular leader, Henri Falcón.
Mr Chávez enjoys other advantages. The constitution prohibits government officials, including the president, from using their position to favour a political tendency. But the electoral authority, whose board comprises four chavistas and a lone oppositionist, says they can do it anyway. Government-run media, including six television channels, give blanket coverage to the PSUVs campaign and token, hostile interviews to opposition candidates. Only two free-to-air channels have balanced coverage. Short of money and up against the might of the state, the opposition nonetheless hopes that enough chavista voters will stay at home to give it a majority of the popular vote.
Even if the government wins, the election is likely to show that Mr Chávez has lost the commanding majority of the electorate that supported him at the presidential election in 2006. And the opposition, a variegated coalition of 18 parties, has managed to forge a single list of candidates in months of bruising negotiations. The opposition hopes at least to deprive Mr Chávez of a two-thirds majority in the legislature. That would mean the government would have to negotiate over the appointment of supreme-court justices and three new members of the electoral authority, who are due to be chosen almost as soon as the new parliament is sworn in.
In theory, at least. After the opposition won several big, urbanised states and the mayoralty of Caracas in a regional vote in 2008, Mr Chávez stripped state governors and the metropolitan mayor of many powers, along with much of their budget. Mr Chávez is given to stretching the chewing-gum of democracy as Laureano Márquez, a comedian and political analyst, puts it, adding that an opposition win on Sunday would see him stretch it yet again. Under no circumstances can he contemplate losing power, says Mr Márquez. Officials are drawing up plans for a communal assembly, ultimately controlled from the presidential palace, which would encroach on the legislatures functions.
At the second attempt, in 2009 Mr Chávez won a referendum to change the constitution to abolish term limits. He has already announced that he will stand for another six-year term in the presidential election in two years time. He says his re-election campaign will begin immediately after the parliamentary vote. Despite his waning popularity, he is a phenomenal campaigner. Throughout his decade in power he has urged Venezuelans to focus on the Utopia he says lies ahead. And evenor perhaps especiallyamid the countrys impoverishment today, Utopia remains a powerful draw.
