CBO set to become massively less reliable.

[fskimospy]

Sadly, yesterday Republicans voted to force the CBO to incorporate "dynamic scoring" in their estimates of the cost of bills. What this basically is is asking the CBO to include macroeconomic effects into their projections.

Plenty of people, not unreasonably, might initially wonder why this isn't a good thing. The reason is that projection models are so sensitive and so uncertain that you can have cases where in estimates one model predicted $50 billion in lower costs for a bill, and another predicted $700 billion in lower costs for the same bill.

CBO estimates are of course already imperfect, but this is simply a naked attempt to politicize their findings and make them more favorable to conservatives. Instead of changing their bills to make them cost less, they want to change the measurement instrument and hope you don't notice.

Great start to the new congress!

http://mobile.nytimes.com/2015/01/0...-economic-impact-of-bills.html?_r=0&referrer=

 

[PokerGuy]

Dynamic scoring is a potentially good thing but fraught with peril. Done right, it could give us much better cost estimates and help make better decisions. Done wrong, it becomes a political tool instead of a more objective budgeting tool. It also undermines credibility of the CBO (not that there is much anyway) and provides more opportunity for political meddling and interjections into the estimation process.

I also agree that small changes in the model can cause big differences in the projected costs, and that different underlying assumptions can have major impact on such projections.

Note that it is pretty ironic that you (and other lefties) oppose the use of dynamic scoring in CBO forecasting in this context, but are fine with making decisions off similar forecasting when it comes to climate models.

 

[Engineer]

Will Dems throw out that spending increases economic activity and therefore, brings in more revenue or is it only for tax cuts.

 

[PokerGuy]

Will Dems throw out that spending increases economic activity and therefore, brings in more revenue or is it only for tax cuts.

Oh, trust me, both sides will happily use dynamic scoring forecasting to make bills they push seem better or to attack bills they oppose.... and all the while decry the other side for doing the same.

The concept of course makes perfect sense, you should include all factors that you can into the forecasting process, but when put in the context of politics, it becomes more nebulous.

 

[CLite]

Will Dems throw out that spending increases economic activity and therefore, brings in more revenue or is it only for tax cuts.

The way the proposed rules are written you can't use dynamic projection for infrastructure spending or stimulus spending. It basically written to only make large tax breaks appear better.

 

[hal2kilo]

The way the proposed rules are written you can't use dynamic projection for infrastructure spending or stimulus spending. It basically written to only make large tax breaks appear better.

So Repubs are still stuck on trickle down stupid. And will use this as there tool to prove it. One thing I will give them, they are consistent.

 

[thraashman]

I hope news organizations that talk about this refer to dynamic scoring as what any intelligent person refers to it, "utter bullshit".

 

[fskimospy]

Dynamic scoring is a potentially good thing but fraught with peril. Done right, it could give us much better cost estimates and help make better decisions. Done wrong, it becomes a political tool instead of a more objective budgeting tool. It also undermines credibility of the CBO (not that there is much anyway) and provides more opportunity for political meddling and interjections into the estimation process.

I also agree that small changes in the model can cause big differences in the projected costs, and that different underlying assumptions can have major impact on such projections.

Note that it is pretty ironic that you (and other lefties) oppose the use of dynamic scoring in CBO forecasting in this context, but are fine with making decisions off similar forecasting when it comes to climate models.

The complaint is not that all forecasting is bad, but that this change makes the CBO's forecasts less reliable than they were previously for entirely political reasons.

In theory it could absolutely be used to improve forecasts, but in reality this seems highly unlikely. It will also undermine the credibility of forecasts by making them all open to charges of fixed methodology.

 

[Thebobo]

God damn have they no shame.

 

[shira]

Oh, trust me, both sides will happily use dynamic scoring forecasting to make bills they push seem better or to attack bills they oppose.... and all the while decry the other side for doing the same.

The concept of course makes perfect sense, you should include all factors that you can into the forecasting process, but when put in the context of politics, it becomes more nebulous.

Did you notice that the bill specifically excludes stimulus measures (read: Democratic initiatives) from being dynamically scored? That couldn't possibly be a political ploy by Republicants, could it?

 

[boomerang]

Legislation is crafted to weigh it such that the CBO can't accurately score it anyway. Obamacare - hello! The whole system is corrupt and getting more so but for those that can't control their emotions, rail on against your enemies! I'm glad for you that you still see "good guys" in D.C. I mean, it's pure ignorance but I am glad for you that you still have heroes.

 

[BoberFett]

Seems like it might make for good addendum to a report, but determining second or third order effects is impossibly unreliable.

 

[CitizenKain]

Legislation is crafted to weigh it such that the CBO can't accurately score it anyway. Obamacare - hello! The whole system is corrupt and getting more so but for those that can't control their emotions, rail on against your enemies! I'm glad for you that you still see "good guys" in D.C. I mean, it's pure ignorance but I am glad for you that you still have heroes.

Tell us more why you think Sarah Palin is the best person in the world.

 

[unokitty]

 

[fskimospy]

Legislation is crafted to weigh it such that the CBO can't accurately score it anyway. Obamacare - hello! The whole system is corrupt and getting more so but for those that can't control their emotions, rail on against your enemies! I'm glad for you that you still see "good guys" in D.C. I mean, it's pure ignorance but I am glad for you that you still have heroes.

You have no clue what you are talking about.

This is what happens when people consume way, way too much partisan media.

 

[Greenman]

How accurate is the CBO now? Is there a breakdown of their projections verses reality somewhere?

Honestly, whenever I've heard a CBO report mentioned, I just assume that the numbers are pulled out of someones ass. It never occurred to me that they might be accurate.

 

[kage69]

I suppose if you already have contempt for science and consider it subjective, why not math?

There isn't much the GOP won't politicize and attempt to obfuscate if it helps them make some political hay. Kinda smacks of the already established GOP tactic of changing rules when reality has the nerve not to accommodate their views.

Gotta delay the inevitable though, even if it takes stupid, sleazy shit like this.

 

[theeedude]

That's what the American people voted for last November.

 

[Newell Steamer]

Well, one of the 1st tasks in war is to disarm/compromise communications.

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2015/01/congresss-first-act-was-to-declare-war-on-math.html

Why the Republican Congress’s First Act Was to Declare War on Math

In a rapid vote yesterday, the House directed the Congressional Budget Office to use “dynamic scoring” — a Washington term of art to describe imposing conservative ideology upon the once-neutral task of measuring the budgetary impact of legislation.

The whole reason the Republican Congress is instituting dynamic scoring comes as a response to its attempt to write a tax reform bill last year. The idea was to lower tax rates while eliminating loopholes and preferences. But Republicans discovered that, while lowering rates is easy, eliminating preferences is hard. After Representative Dave Camp produced a tax reform bill that failed to cut tax rates for high-income taxpayers enough for their liking, Republicans abandoned it en masse. Paul Ryan openly declared his plan to change the forecasting rules so that Republicans could cut tax rates without having to pay for every dollar by ending preferences. The first step was kicking out Douglas Elmendorf, the CBO director widely respected by both sides. The second step was yesterday’s vote.

“Dynamic scoring” allows the Republican majority to impose its own ideological terms on the process of scoring legislation. Many credible economic forecasters would argue that debt-financed tax cuts actually reduce economic growth, and thereby cost the government more, not less, than their static cost.

Trickledown Economics Part 3: The Reshuffling.

 

[BoberFett]

I suppose if you already have contempt for science and consider it subjective, why not math?

Well, one of the 1st tasks in war is to disarm/compromise communications.

http://nymag.com/daily/intelligencer/2015/01/congresss-first-act-was-to-declare-war-on-math.html

LOL, you think economics is science or math.

In science and math, inputs have predictable outputs. Economics uses numbers, but it is not science or math.

 

[theeedude]

Good thing we have Obama to veto book-cooked Republican bills.

 

[OverVolt]

CBO is massively underfunded and understaffed from what I understand so I don't see the difference between useless and uselessererer.

 

[Ronstang]

Good thing we have Obama to veto book-cooked Republican bills.

Hmm, I don't remember a single Republican having anything to do with Obamacare.

 

[OverVolt]

The complaint is not that all forecasting is bad, but that this change makes the CBO's forecasts less reliable than they were previously for entirely political reasons.

In theory it could absolutely be used to improve forecasts, but in reality this seems highly unlikely. It will also undermine the credibility of forecasts by making them all open to charges of fixed methodology.

 

[ivwshane]

Lol at the apologists!


It's funny to hear so called fiscal conservatives basically support what amounts to hiding spending increases through "projected" income.

When government spending increases and they start whinning again, I'll point to this thread and show these dumb asses how they supported such garbage.