Discussion Cattle futures are on a non-stop rise since the turn of century? What is happening?

[Amol S.]

Cattle futures have been on a steep rise due to the current inflation. However, cattle futures have allways been on a rise.



Farms across the country have been put into the boiling pot of politics at the turn of the century. First came the multiple financial crisisies during the Bush administration. Then I don't know what Obama did that caused it to sky rocket then decline. The decline obviously stopped when Trump took office and put into place the trade tariff war, that hurt the industry. Then obviously came the current situation of inflation that we are in now. Live cattle right now is at $1.5165/lb.

 

[ivwshane]

Looks like a correlation to population growth to me as meat consumption has been pretty consistent if not a slight decline. Spikes could be caused by external factors like an increase in corn prices.

 

[theeedude]

It's cents per pound, not dollars. So $1.5165/lb not $151.65.

https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/agriculture/livestock/live-cattle.contractSpecs.html

Price Quotation	U.S. cents per pound

 

[Brainonska511]

The big issue for meat packing is the industry consolidation: something like 4 companies control 80% or more of the industry, squeezing farmers and consumers.

 

[theeedude]

A lot of it has to do with emerging markets too. They can now afford more protein in their diet and are competing with US consumers.

 

[KMFJD]

Droughts

 

[trenchfoot]

I eat beef maybe twice a week at most, even less now what with the ridiculous price spikes I'm seeing. Besides, I have a steady source of venison, feral pig and local caught fish to rely on, so not much skin in the beef game.

Being in my sunset years, it's something I shouldn't be eating like I used to anyway. Still, a thick juicy BBQ'd ribeye done just right makes for mighty fine dining, but alas...

 

[Brainonska511]

I eat beef maybe twice a week at most, even less now what with the ridiculous price spikes I'm seeing. Besides, I have a steady source of venison, feral pig and local caught fish to rely on, so not much skin in the beef game.

Being in my sunset years, it's something I shouldn't be eating like I used to anyway. Still, a thick juicy BBQ'd ribeye done just right makes for mighty fine dining, but alas...

I like beef, but my wife is pescatarian (and formerly a vegetarian), so I only really eating meat if we go out. It's probably a big reason we haven't seen our grocery bill go up much. Probably better for my health too to avoid a lot of meat.

 

[Ken g6]

It doesn't look like that graph is adjusted for inflation.

 

[Leeea]

Me like hamburger.

 

[Jaskalas]

More people, finite land.
The greater our population, the more scarce and expensive all our limited resources become. The less you have per person, the more expensive it will be.
We are reaching some physical limits, while we have already greatly surpassed some others.

 

[Sunburn74]

I eat beef but have little interest in it. If I never had another steak again, I probably wouldn't notice.

 

[dphantom]

we buy half a steer every year. keeps us in meat plus enough to share with our kids. much, much cheaper. Plus, we buy the steer from family friend who we know how the steer is raised and fed and then a local USDA processor who we also know. 400-450 lbs at a third the cost of a retail grocery

 

[KMFJD]

we buy half a steer every year. keeps us in meat plus enough to share with our kids. much, much cheaper. Plus, we buy the steer from family friend who we know how the steer is raised and fed and then a local USDA processor who we also know. 400-450 lbs at a third the cost of a retail grocery

that's how a few of my friends do it as well, cheaper that way although finding a butcher these days to do it is getting harder

 

[FelixDeCat]

Catchup and bun futures must certainly follow.

 

[KB]

There has been a lot of inflation of all goods since the 70s. See houses, college education, healthcare.
Add in Population growth and increase in wealth of former poor nations like China, this means demand is higher, just as available land is down thanks to drought and development.

 

[Amol S.]

Catchup and bun futures must certainly follow.

Not everything has sky rocketing price increases to prices not seen since Carter. For example, sugar futures were barely even effected at all by Covid-19 or the recent inflation compared to Carter Era.

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This image also shows to prove that your man Trump had a much worse impact on sugar futures (2017), compared to Biden and the inflation you claim Biden has caused. Or should I say as you like to call him "Jimmy Biden".

 

[dainthomas]

Referring to 2000 as "turn of the century" makes me feel old af. Same as when my daughter says "the 1900's".

 

[dphantom]

that's how a few of my friends do it as well, cheaper that way although finding a butcher these days to do it is getting harder

True. We have to schedule 1 year in advance for processing. About 6 months for a whole pig.

 

[nOOky]

we buy half a steer every year. keeps us in meat plus enough to share with our kids. much, much cheaper. Plus, we buy the steer from family friend who we know how the steer is raised and fed and then a local USDA processor who we also know. 400-450 lbs at a third the cost of a retail grocery

Locally here in SW Wisconsin I can buy a half beef for cheap, and it's lean depending on what type of animal we buy. My last purchase 4 months ago was about $3.09 a pound cut, wrapped, and flash frozen. They even gave me the brisket since the other party didn't want it. Sometimes my wife still buys hamburger at the store if she wants to use it right away, and we have 45 pounds left in our freezer grrr.

 

[dphantom]

Locally here in SW Wisconsin I can buy a half beef for cheap, and it's lean depending on what type of animal we buy. My last purchase 4 months ago was about $3.09 a pound cut, wrapped, and flash frozen. They even gave me the brisket since the other party didn't want it. Sometimes my wife still buys hamburger at the store if she wants to use it right away, and we have 45 pounds left in our freezer grrr.

We love the brisket. Slow roast, low heat oven or a smoker with barbecue - the best. Wife and I are on the same page tho when buying meat - never, ever store bought. Condolences

 

[cytg111]

I eat beef but have little interest in it. If I never had another steak again, I probably wouldn't notice.

I'd gladly give up most of my beef consumption if only to keep those true prime grade well bred well aged cuts.

 

[hal2kilo]

I wish I had never bought prime chuck roast at Costco. Must resist. It's so spendy. I since bought the regular choice at another store and the knife is back out for that meal.