Carson Palmer to the Raiders

[Patranus]

CJ Spiller is not a bust and does just fine in his role.
Knowshow is hardly a bust either, although more was expected of him.

These are 1st round picks.
A first round pick is expected to be an IMPACT player.

CJ Spiller cannot even get on the field and Knowshon cannot stay healthy.
For the "cost" of a 1st round pick they are busts.

 

[Patranus]

Lets look at the 1st round busts since 2003 (the year Palmer was drafted)

2003
Carson Palmer
Byron Leftwich - Bust
Kyle Boller - Bust
Rex Grossman - Bust
Bust rate of 75% (3/4)

2004
Eli Manning
Philip Rivers
Ben Roethlisberger
J. P. Losman - Bust
Bust rate of 25% (1/4)

2005
Alex Smith - Bust
Aaron Rodgers
Jason Campbell - Bust
Bust rate of 67% (2/3)

2006
Vince Young - Bust
Matt Leinart - Bust
Jay Cutler
Bust rate of 67% (2/3)

2007
JaMarcus Russell - Bust
Brady Quinn - Bust
Bust rate of 100% (2/2)

2008
Matt Ryan
Joe Flacco
Bust rate of 0% (0/2)

2009
Matthew Stafford
Mark Sanchez
Josh Freeman
Bust rate of 0% (0/3)

2010
Sam Bradford
Tim Tebow - Bust
Bust rate of 50% (1/2)

Total QBs Selected: 23
Total Busts Selected: 11
Total bust rate: 48%

Number will probably go up as players get benched from the 2008 through 2011 draft get more playing time.

 

[RagingBITCH]

Lets look at the 1st round busts since 2003 (the year Palmer was drafted)

2003
Carson Palmer
Byron Leftwich - Bust
Kyle Boller - Bust
Rex Grossman - Bust
Bust rate of 75% (3/4)

2004
Eli Manning
Philip Rivers
Ben Roethlisberger
J. P. Losman - Bust
Bust rate of 25% (1/4)

2005
Alex Smith - Bust
Aaron Rodgers
Jason Campbell - Bust
Bust rate of 67% (2/3)

2006
Vince Young - Bust
Matt Leinart - Bust
Jay Cutler
Bust rate of 67% (2/3)

2007
JaMarcus Russell - Bust
Brady Quinn - Bust
Bust rate of 100% (2/2)

2008
Matt Ryan
Joe Flacco
Bust rate of 0% (0/2)

2009
Matthew Stafford
Mark Sanchez
Josh Freeman
Bust rate of 0% (0/3)

2010
Sam Bradford
Tim Tebow - Bust
Bust rate of 50% (1/2)

Total QBs Selected: 23
Total Busts Selected: 11
Total bust rate: 48%

Number will probably go up as players get benched from the 2008 through 2011 draft get more playing time.

What idiot thinks Jay Cutler is NOT a bust? Are you serious?

 

[dougp]

What idiot thinks Jay Cutler is NOT a bust? Are you serious?

How would you consider him a bust?

 

[cheezy321]

CJ Spiller is not a bust and does just fine in his role.
Knowshow is hardly a bust either, although more was expected of him.

You can see a good RB in less than a season. Spiller and Moreno are both busts. Spiller hasnt had a lot of time to shine yet, but Moreno is a bust of epic proportions. They have an over the hill running back playing instead of him. That is pathetic!

 

[dougp]

You can see a good RB in less than a season. Spiller and Moreno are both busts. Spiller hasnt had a lot of time to shine yet, but Moreno is a bust of epic proportions. They have an over the hill running back playing instead of him. That is pathetic!

Huh? McGahee isn't over the hill - http://www.nfl.com/player/willismcgahee/2505674/profile

 

[Sheep]

What idiot thinks Jay Cutler is NOT a bust? Are you serious?

Looking only at his years in Chicago, he's been anally raped repeatedly by opposing defenses because he has no O line. Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers would have their careers shortened playing behind the Bears' line which blocks about as well as a blob of mayonnaise.

 

[thegimp03]

Lets look at the 1st round busts since 2003 (the year Palmer was drafted)

2003
Carson Palmer
Byron Leftwich - Bust
Kyle Boller - Bust
Rex Grossman - Bust
Bust rate of 75% (3/4)

2004
Eli Manning
Philip Rivers
Ben Roethlisberger
J. P. Losman - Bust
Bust rate of 25% (1/4)

2005
Alex Smith - Bust
Aaron Rodgers
Jason Campbell - Bust
Bust rate of 67% (2/3)

2006
Vince Young - Bust
Matt Leinart - Bust
Jay Cutler
Bust rate of 67% (2/3)

2007
JaMarcus Russell - Bust
Brady Quinn - Bust
Bust rate of 100% (2/2)

2008
Matt Ryan
Joe Flacco
Bust rate of 0% (0/2)

2009
Matthew Stafford
Mark Sanchez
Josh Freeman
Bust rate of 0% (0/3)

2010
Sam Bradford
Tim Tebow - Bust
Bust rate of 50% (1/2)

Total QBs Selected: 23
Total Busts Selected: 11
Total bust rate: 48%

Number will probably go up as players get benched from the 2008 through 2011 draft get more playing time.

Bradford isn't exactly having a sparkling year. I think him and Tebow we need more time to evaluate if they will be busts or not.

 

[Patranus]

Looking only at his years in Chicago, he's been anally raped repeatedly by opposing defenses because he has no O line. Tom Brady and Aaron Rodgers would have their careers shortened playing behind the Bears' line which blocks about as well as a blob of mayonnaise.

He has had *some* success. I mean he did take his team to an NFC championship game. Not saying he is *elite* but certainly not bust status.

 

[Patranus]

Bradford isn't exactly having a sparkling year. I think him and Tebow we need more time to evaluate if they will be busts or not.

Yup.

I think that it is very possible for Bradford/Sanchez/Freeman are all going to start to decline which would drive the bust rate to 56%.

At least 8 more of the QBs are no where near elite (Bradford/Sanchez/Freeman/Manning/Cutler/Ryan/Flacco/Stafford).

Only 3 can be considered a elite QB at this point (Rivers/Big Ben/Rodgers).

So if Palmer returns to form in Oakland (elite level) then the Raiders could have EASILY wasted those two picks (1st/2nd or 1st/1st) on 2 QBs that have an extremely high chance of being a bust.

I agree that the Raiders probably overpaid, but the point is if you think he is "the guy" then the price can be justified.

 

[a123456]

Yeah, the miss rate is relatively high in the first round, but the miss rate in later rounds is probably much much higher. If you look at the super elite players in the league, most(?) of them outside of Brady are 1st round but it's still a huge gamble.

Cutler is not a bust considering the Bears got 2 1st round + 3rd round pick for him so he paid you back more than 100% return if you look at it in a math type way. His on the field play may not be on par with the super elite but his trade/draft value was there for the Bears.

 

[Sheep]

He has had *some* success. I mean he did take his team to an NFC championship game. Not saying he is *elite* but certainly not bust status.

I agree with you. Haters like to use Cutler's so-called inability to read defenses and his getting sacked all the time as a reason why he's a bust. My examples were to illustrate why Cutler's play hasn't been to the level of the top-tier QBs. I'm not saying he doesn't have his issues to work out but quite frankly NO ONE could succeed playing behind the Bears' craptacular O line.

 

[Patranus]

People also forget that Palmer was putting up great numbers in the AFC North, probably the toughest division in the NFL (Steelers/Ravens) when he was playing full time.

 

[The_Dude8]

People also forget that Palmer was putting up great numbers in the AFC North, probably the toughest division in the NFL (Steelers/Ravens) when he was playing full time.

But Carson haven't been playing football since 2009, and i don't think he can gasps the raiders playbook in 1 week; and we don't know how is body react to the hits he is going to get against the chefs this sunday.

 

[zinfamous]

He has had *some* success. I mean he did take his team to an NFC championship game. Not saying he is *elite* but certainly not bust status.

ehem. Hello, my name is Rex Grossman.


Anyway, I do think Cutler is good, just the problems with O-Line in Chicago and crazy Denver media and fans.

 

[zinfamous]

Yup.

I think that it is very possible for Bradford/Sanchez/Freeman are all going to start to decline which would drive the bust rate to 56%.

At least 8 more of the QBs are no where near elite (Bradford/Sanchez/Freeman/Manning/Cutler/Ryan/Flacco/Stafford).

Only 3 can be considered a elite QB at this point (Rivers/Big Ben/Rodgers).

So if Palmer returns to form in Oakland (elite level) then the Raiders could have EASILY wasted those two picks (1st/2nd or 1st/1st) on 2 QBs that have an extremely high chance of being a bust.

I agree that the Raiders probably overpaid, but the point is if you think he is "the guy" then the price can be justified.

I do agree with your argument, overall--essentially that everyone expects the Raiders to waste those picks, anyway. Even if they only win 2 playoff games and end up just above 500 for the next couple of seasons, it likely would have been a better outcome for the Raiders.

 

[zinfamous]

People also forget that Palmer was putting up great numbers in the AFC North, probably the toughest division in the NFL (Steelers/Ravens) when he was playing full time.

I think he has the skills of an elite QB--he obviously did for 2 seasons.

But his rating decline for the previous 4 seasons that he actually played is a bit disheartening.

Hopefully, with a much better team like this season's Raiders, we will see if that decline was more Bungles-related team drama and unhappiness (he is back home here in the Bay Area) than anything else.

 

[Patranus]

I think he has the skills of an elite QB--he obviously did for 2 seasons.

But his rating decline for the previous 4 seasons that he actually played is a bit disheartening.

Hopefully, with a much better team like this season's Raiders, we will see if that decline was more Bungles-related team drama and unhappiness (he is back home here in the Bay Area) than anything else.

Well just look at Ochocinco on NE. With Brady at the controls he isn't doing ANYTHING and that isn't due to lack of chance.

 

[zinfamous]

Well just look at Ochocinco on NE. With Brady at the controls he isn't doing ANYTHING and that isn't due to lack of chance.

I'm surprised. I think Ochocinco is damn good, and at least on the field, never really had that "wide receiver attitude."

I know he's a showboat, but he's no Terrel Owens and frankly, he just seems like a nice, fun guy. His personality isn't "I am the greatest, look at me and fuck everyone else;" it's always been more of a loudmouthed cut-up. So I have no idea what has happened to him--maybe being around TO for too long?

maybe he's become lazy. I don't get it. He needs to go back to being Chad Johnson and fucking do his job.

I continue to lament the shortened career of Torry Holt (my all-time favorite athlete). Dude was unstoppable, went out and did his job without the BS, big into charity (not quite Warrick Dunn, of course), but was pretty much the best in the league for 3 straight seasons and as good as everyone else for the rest of that time. He was the best and the only thing he needed to do to prove it was to put on the field, and that's what he did. He was way ahead of pace to take all of Jerry Rice's numbers before he went down--and of course, the complete decline of St Louis killed at least 3 seasons that would have been great for him.

He would have been a great role-model for kids wanting to play football, and was, pretty much, the last remaining class player at most positions--especially WO.

 

[Patranus]

I'm surprised. I think Ochocinco is damn good, and at least on the field, never really had that "wide receiver attitude."

Ocho has been known as a WR who runs poor routs and also runs the short. I am not shocked that he has dropped off the map in NE where technical details are important. Hell, there were/are rumors they are going to flat out cut him.

 

[AMDZen]

2010
Sam Bradford
Tim Tebow - Bust
Bust rate of 50% (1/2)

Total QBs Selected: 23
Total Busts Selected: 11
Total bust rate: 48%

Tim Tebow is a bust even though he's started 3 games and won 1 of them? Then Sam Bradford is clearly a bust as well given his play this year.

Dumbass

 

[PimpJuice]

I'm surprised. I think Ochocinco is damn good, and at least on the field, never really had that "wide receiver attitude."

I know he's a showboat, but he's no Terrel Owens and frankly, he just seems like a nice, fun guy. His personality isn't "I am the greatest, look at me and fuck everyone else;" it's always been more of a loudmouthed cut-up. So I have no idea what has happened to him--maybe being around TO for too long?

maybe he's become lazy. I don't get it. He needs to go back to being Chad Johnson and fucking do his job.

I continue to lament the shortened career of Torry Holt (my all-time favorite athlete). Dude was unstoppable, went out and did his job without the BS, big into charity (not quite Warrick Dunn, of course), but was pretty much the best in the league for 3 straight seasons and as good as everyone else for the rest of that time. He was the best and the only thing he needed to do to prove it was to put on the field, and that's what he did. He was way ahead of pace to take all of Jerry Rice's numbers before he went down--and of course, the complete decline of St Louis killed at least 3 seasons that would have been great for him.

He would have been a great role-model for kids wanting to play football, and was, pretty much, the last remaining class player at most positions--especially WO.

Wow, I disagree. Tory Holt was a very good route runner with great hands, but he was never "the best". He always had lots of catches and lots of yards, but I attribute that to playing on some of the greatest offensive teams of all time. The thing about Holt that I'll remember the most is his propensity to shy away from ANY contact. He had zero heart. I've also met the guy and he comes off as an ass. Great stats, but one of the most overrated players ever.

 

[crashtestdummy]

I'm surprised. I think Ochocinco is damn good, and at least on the field, never really had that "wide receiver attitude."

I know he's a showboat, but he's no Terrel Owens and frankly, he just seems like a nice, fun guy. His personality isn't "I am the greatest, look at me and fuck everyone else;" it's always been more of a loudmouthed cut-up. So I have no idea what has happened to him--maybe being around TO for too long?

maybe he's become lazy. I don't get it. He needs to go back to being Chad Johnson and fucking do his job.

I don't think he's lazy at all. I think he's working as hard as he ever has, if not more so. I also don't buy that he's physically fallen off the map. Sure, he's lost a couple steps over the years, but enough to explain his lack of production.

So what's happening? He's a terrible fit for this offense. Chad spent his whole career in a much simpler scheme. He merely had to line up, run his route, and the ball would be waiting there for him. The route didn't change for man coverage or zone, for nickel or heavy blitz (unless there was an audible).

In the Pats offense, each receiver is given multiple route options, based on the defense they're facing. Not only that, but he needs to make sure he reads the defense the same way Tom Brady does, as Tom will often throw it before the receiver makes his move, expecting him to arrive at the ball. Chad has shown an inability to read these coverages consistently. Joey Galloway had the same problem.

For a counter example of this, see Deion Branch. When thrown into a Seahawks offense much more like what the Bengals had, he couldn't cut it because he doesn't have elite physical tools (he's short, not particularly fast, and only above-average hands). When brought back to the Pats, though, he immediately became productive again because he's incredibly smart and sees coverage the same way as Tom.

 

[Gibson486]

Ocho has been known as a WR who runs poor routs and also runs the short. I am not shocked that he has dropped off the map in NE where technical details are important. Hell, there were/are rumors they are going to flat out cut him.

You have to be surprised that he is not making some impact. Although, you have to laugh that Tom Brady said that he is an awesome Practice Receiver. Ouch. I think It is due to the fact that he is not used to changing routes so fast...The pats offense is not, "Oh, lets chnage the play...here it is everybody, now do it"....It's more, "Change play...84 you do this, 81 do not change a thing, 85 you do this but if you encounter that, do this."

 

[cheezy321]

Huh? McGahee isn't over the hill - http://www.nfl.com/player/willismcgahee/2505674/profile

30 years old is the magic age where RB's truly decline. Look at all the stars, nobody really does much beyond 30 years old. That is what I meant by him being over the hill. He has 1, mayyyyyybe 2 years left in him.