car dealership scratch off mailers - explain this to me...

[tmc]

today I got one of those car dealership scratch off mailers. the fine print says that the prizes and their odds are:

kia car - 1 : 500,000
honda atv - 1 : 500,000
$2500 cash - 1 : 500,000
walmart gift card - 49,997 : 50,000

shouldn't the walmart gift card odds be - 499,997:500,000. or, is the above just a typo?

how many mailers were printed in the first place? do they actually ever print anything that does not win a prize (i.e., the gift card!)?

yeah, you are correct if you figured i am doing nothing useful right now.

 

[GagHalfrunt]

Either the gift card should be 499,997:500,000 or the other three should be 1 : 50,000

 

[alkemyst]

It's highly probable that almost everyone would win a gift card if they came down.

Usually these things have a requirement that you have to scratch it off in front of a representative or that they have to.

For a $5-10 gift card versus a high pressure sale of a new car, it's cheap advertisement.

 

[DrPizza]

I suspect there was an error - that's probably not what they meant. Nonetheless, there's no problem. It simply means that out of 500,000 sent out, that 499,970 would win gift cards. 3 win "grand" prizes, leaving 27 schmucks who didn't win a thing.

But, 500,000 seems like an awful lot of them for a dealership to send out. I suspect it was closer to 50,000. I would think that they would have some sort of mailing list such that there were no more than one per household, and that they used some sort of criteria to focus their sales. E.g., using historical data to target neighborhoods where more people had purchased new vehicles from dealers. That is, and I don't mean this offensively, if they targeted some neighborhoods, they'd have thousands of people standing in line who all were willing to wait 1 hour for their free $5 gift card, while of those 1000's of people, they'd be lucky to sell one new vehicle. Given the cost of postage in such a case, they'd lose money doing this as a promo. Hence, 500,000 seems awfully high to me.


Then again, perhaps the odds really are 1/500,000, and they only printed out 5000 of them. If that were the case, and they were truly printed at random, there's only about a 1/10,000th of a percent chance that all three winners were printed. And, barely more than a 1% chance that any grand prize winners were printed. Probably depends on state laws regarding such promotions though.

Usually these things have a requirement that you have to scratch it off in front of a representative or that they have to.

I get at least 1 of those a week; I don't recall any that have such a requirement in years. What they do is, "get three matching squares in a row, and you win!" You scratch them off, and all 3 are a kia, or all 3 are a picture of $2500, or all 3 are an atv." The rules don't say you win what you got 3 of... only that if the three match, you win. So, it suckers people into going to the dealership to find out that their 3 matching atv pictures means they won a gift card. (Else, I'm the luckiest and dumbest person on the planet, because I always get 3 matching pictures, and have never wasted my time.)

 

[Virge_]

Usually it's just an obvious numbers game.

"CONGRATULATIONS! You just won one of seven prizes!"

Prize 1: Trendy electronic device
Prize 2: More expensive trendy electronic device
Prize 3: Even more expensive trendy electronic device
Prize 4: Even more expensive trendy electronic device
Prize 5: Even more expensive trendy electronic device
Prize 6: A million dollars!

Notice something wrong with that? Of course you're a winner!

Hint: "Prize 7" is some bogus "$50" off a new car purchase or some nonsense, which wasn't listed on the things you can win, making you think you won one of 1-6. The entire thing is just a scam to get you in the door, which I kind of find hilarious because I don't imagine many people would be interested in buying a car after falling for it.

 

[alkemyst]

Usually it's just an obvious numbers game.

"CONGRATULATIONS! You just won one of seven prizes!"

Prize 1: Trendy electronic device
Prize 2: More expensive trendy electronic device
Prize 3: Even more expensive trendy electronic device
Prize 4: Even more expensive trendy electronic device
Prize 5: Even more expensive trendy electronic device
Prize 6: A million dollars!

Notice something wrong with that? Of course you're a winner!

Hint: "Prize 7" is some bogus "$50" off a new car purchase or some nonsense, which wasn't listed on the things you can win, making you think you won one of 1-6. The entire thing is just a scam to get you in the door, which I kind of find hilarious because I don't imagine many people would be interested in buying a car after falling for it.

It's mostly for the people who were already looking and needed just a bit of push to come in.

 

[smackababy]

It's mostly for the people who were already looking and needed just a bit of push to come in.

Most cars salesmen know if you're on the lot, you want to buy. You don't go into a dealership if you aren't ready to buy a car. Offering some kind of contest gets people in the door AND puts the name of that dealership in the heads of those who aren't currently in the market.

 

[alkemyst]

Most cars salesmen know if you're on the lot, you want to buy. You don't go into a dealership if you aren't ready to buy a car. Offering some kind of contest gets people in the door AND puts the name of that dealership in the heads of those who aren't currently in the market.

I was referring to people that have not been to the lot. Also most people that visit a lot are not necessarily ready to buy at the dealership they are looking.

 

[smackababy]

I was referring to people that have not been to the lot. Also most people that visit a lot are not necessarily ready to buy at the dealership they are looking.

There are exceptions, but generally if someone goes onto a car lot they are looking to buy. The salesman simply has to offer them the deal they might be looking for. You might say you're not ready to buy, but that is because someone isn't handing you the keys to a car along with a pen to sign for it.

 

[madoka]

But, 500,000 seems like an awful lot of them for a dealership to send out. I suspect it was closer to 50,000.

I believe 500,000 is probably what is being sent out. An advertising company will run this promotion with several dealers at one time. That way the risk of actually paying out a car is spread out amongst many dealerships and they can all benefit from the advertising.

 

[alkemyst]

I believe 500,000 is probably what is being sent out. An advertising company will run this promotion with several dealers at one time. That way the risk of actually paying out a car is spread out amongst many dealerships and they can all benefit from the advertising.

Plus they buy insurance against the wins.

 

[alkemyst]

There are exceptions, but generally if someone goes onto a car lot they are looking to buy. The salesman simply has to offer them the deal they might be looking for. You might say you're not ready to buy, but that is because someone isn't handing you the keys to a car along with a pen to sign for it.

Many people just go and joy ride.

 

[ElFenix]

Many people just go and joy ride.

out of the entire houston area i doubt there are 1,000 people that do this.

 

[LTC8K6]

With my relatives and my work address, I usually get 5 of those each time a dealer runs them. All 5 are always exactly the same. The scratch offs are the same. If there is a winning number, they all have it. If there is a fake key, all of the fake keys are identical.

In short, all of them are always "winners".

We have never run across any such contest where all 5 of the entries were not identical.

 

[alkemyst]

out of the entire houston area i doubt there are 1,000 people that do this.

It's Texas though.

There are lot's of people that just swing by a dealership especially when they are offering free food to just kick tires.

What the hell do I know, my best friend in high school just turned his 21st year as head of finance for a dealership and was in sales previously.

This is a good write up of the reality vs the perception: http://carbuying.jalopnik.com/why-dealerships-ignore-you-and-what-you-can-do-about-it-1600715748