Candidate down 10 to 20 points in the polls WINS!

[CADsortaGUY]

*yawn* Once again people trying to use pre-election POLLS to suggest the REAL VOTE was wrong. Sheesh people...

That said, I can't believe people actually voted for the gu... I mean slime bucket.

 

[Rainsford]

Originally posted by: CADsortaGUY
*yawn* Once again people trying to use pre-election POLLS to suggest the REAL VOTE was wrong. Sheesh people...

That said, I can't believe people actually voted for the gu... I mean slime bucket.

Yes, because it is totally impossible for there to ever be a problem with a "real vote". :roll:

That's not to say I think there was fraud here (I think the polls were just wrong), but voting results can inaccurately reflect what the people actually voted for as well.

 

[SP33Demon]

Originally posted by: midway
Nate at fivethirtyeight has his most recent entry up about this one

Uncounted Votes May Push Begich Past Stevens

Nice update. Even though he says it's now a toss-up, he thinks Begich could win by 3,000 if absentee/early ballots continue their current statistical trend.

 

[Lemon law]

Originally posted by: dbk

Originally posted by: midway
Nate at fivethirtyeight has his most recent entry up about this one

Uncounted Votes May Push Begich Past Stevens

Wow, look at all those votes still to be counted.

----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

The 538.com article validates my initial premise, for Begish to win, the class of uncounted ballots had to be statistically different than regularly cast ballots and biased pro Begish.

And when a early subset of uncounted ballots shows a strong 60 40 split pro Begish bias, its not hard to conclude that Stevens may not have it in the bag, and in fact Begish may win.

But as detailed as the early votes are, seeming missing in action is an estimate of the number of uncounted ballots, or a single reason these ballots were not counted
with more speed. I have to agree with one of the comments, that few ballots should have been counted already even if they only allocate a few people and a few sled dogs. As it is the link is now 48 hours out of date, get us up to date information!

 

[Corn]

Originally posted by: techs
http://www.realclearpolitics.c...alaska_senate-562.html

We have all found out this year the incredible accuracy of the polls. See the Presidential polls:
http://www.realclearpolitics.c...cain_vs_obama-225.html

So how can Begich in Alaska be so far ahead in Alaska and lose?
While everyone is asking what's wrong with Alaskans for voting for guy with 7 felony convictions, no one seems to be asking how the polls in Alaska could be so wrong?

While an election ending up different in the polls is not in itself evidence that something funny was going on, it is a reason on the face of it, to be looked into.

I am calling on Sarah Palin to ask the Justice Department to investigate.

Silly silly Techs......who probably never even thought to peruse the various exit polling data freely available to see if there is a deviation from the election outcome.

 

[brandonbull]

Originally posted by: Lemon law
Since I can't offer any factual basis for voter fraud, it would be irresponsible to say only that could explain it. But I could offer a theory that it may be a variant of the Bradley effect.

For the average Alaska citizen, it wonderful to see every dollar they send to the Federal government come back doubled each and every year, and what rational Alaskan would every want to see the demise
of that Golden Goose? While the average voter may be honest, not steal candy from babies, its still hard to turn down free money, even when the bearer of these gifts are as openly corrupt as the day is long.

And while the average Alaskan voter may be loathe to tell a pollster that they would vote for a crook, when they get into the voting booth, they tend to vote for the crook because they worry their free ride might end. After all, its not like they are dishonest, they are simple voting for the Robin Hood who takes from the rich and gives to them.

I guess if a cashier at the local grocery earn 100k/yr in every state like Cali then we wouldn't hear the stupid argument about tax monies.

 

[Lemon law]

I think brandonbull misses even the point I made when he says " I guess if a cashier at the local grocery earn 100k/yr in every state like Cali then we wouldn't hear the stupid argument about tax monies."

With inflation likely to explode, someday cashiers all across the nation will make 100K/yr. and it will still be starvation wages. But the equal pay cashier in Alaska will still be better off than the California counterpart
if every Federal tax dollar the State of Alaska send in comes back doubled. Which then allows Alaska to subsidies its citizens at the expense of California citizens. If nothing else, they will have lower state tax rates
and probably better free educational opportunities. And speak of the devil, as the results of voodoo GWB economics kicks in, the State of California, the city of New York, and countless other governmental units are raising taxes and slashing services.

 

[BoomerD]

If Stevens doesn't win this one...the Alaskan votimg department hasn't done their job correctly and Queen Sarah will be unhappy...

 

[Thump553]

Maybe they are thinking Palin can appoint an "independent commission" to void the jury's findings.