Cancer - Will it rise or fall with coming generations?

[edro]

I know this is a huge topic, one on the same scale of "Why are we here?".

We know that certain chemicals or exposures cause cancer (heavy metals, UV light, etc.).

1. Do you think the list of known carcinogens today will lower the current generation's cancer risk?
(through banning of chemicals and reduction in exposure, etc.)

It seems that cancer is extremely common now. I personally have known at least a dozen people who have had cancer and a handful who have died from it.

2. Is our cancer detection getting better or is our exposure to carcinogens getting worse?

Treatment is obviously getting better with time.

3. Do you think cancer will be just as common, but treatment will be much better and much easier?

This thread is a pretty broad subject, I just wanted to get some other points of view.

 

[vi edit]

I think there 4 major things that cause cancer.

1. Genetics. It's largely passed on through generations.
2. Lifestyle. The worse you treat your body, the higher chance you have of cancer.
3. Environmental. There are legitimate cancer causing products that people can be exposed to.
4. Just plain bad luck. If you don't fit into any of the three above, then it's this one.

Now going ahead with those, it's not the most politically correct thing to say...but a lot of people have lived through child hoods, early adult hoods/child bearing ages because of modern medicine and can pass on their higher risks of cancer producing genes. Basically we are defeating Darwin by allowing bad genes to contine. Not saying it's right or wrong...just that it's happening. So that's going to keep things rising.

Lifestyles don't appear to be getting any better. At all. In fact we are taking a giant leap backwards. We're going into one of the first generations where the children today actually have a lower life expectancy than their parents. That's not a good thing. So I think we'll see cancer rates go up from those choices as well.

Environmental factors come into play for sure. And it seems like for every one or two we identify and address, there's another 3 we create. So I think that's a wash.

As far as bad luck goes, we have more people every year so the pure numbers of people that can get cancer will go up.

Add all of those in with higher detection rates (both from frequency and quality of tests) and you have more *official* and *confirmed* rates of cancer.

 

[dullard]

You are missing one key question. What will improvements in other health related areas do to cancer rates? As more and more diseases become treatable (ie harmful, but they don't kill us), we are more and more likely to die from cancer. People who would have died from heart disease a century ago are now living longer and thus have a much greater chance of dying from cancer (we have to die from something). Thus, to me, increased cancer rates is more of a sign of success than of failure.

As for our cancer detection, I think the most important thing is to improve how we select who should be tested. For example, less than 10% of people diagnosed with breast cancer actually have breast cancer even though the test is quite accurate. Why? Because we test so many people that the small but finite false negative rate greatly outnumbers the people who actually have cancer. We test too many people and don't have a proper screening system to screen out people who are highly unlikely to have it. Then they are falsely given harsh chemicals, radiation, stress, etc. Those false, unnecessary treatments are likely to CAUSE cancer in the patient who didn't have it to begin with.

 

[Jeffg010]

It will go up because people are getting fatter and fatter just look at all the fatties that ride the bus. These lazy fucks have no will power to keep healthy.

 

[edro]

For example, less than 10% of people diagnosed with breast cancer actually have breast cancer even though the test is quite accurate. Why? Because we test so many people that the small but finite false negative rate greatly outnumbers the people who actually have cancer. We test too many people and don't have a proper screening system to screen out people who are highly unlikely to have it.

High numbers of screenings should decrease false positives.

Healthcare does tend to lean towards "better safe than sorry" though, especially with malpractice.

 

[DaveSimmons]

Rates will go up, but the rich will be able to afford nanomachines, stem cells and gene therapies to completely cure all of them.

Plus they'll be harvesting the organs of the poor to live for centuries.

 

[bfdd]

Who cares?

 

[JTsyo]

Based on nothing but my imagination, I think cancer rates will go up as will survival rates. Once we have nanotech medicine that can pick off cancerous cells, deaths due to cancer should drop near zero.

 

[Gibsons]

In the short term cancer rates will go up as long as the average age of the population goes up.

Long term, we might be able to come up with enough technology to make survival rates increase dramatically, to the point where most cancers are not really considered life threatening with proper treatment. Don't hold your breath on this, of course. We're just making incremental improvements now.

Even further long term, we might be able to concoct an active defense or prevention. I'm not sure what could do this, I think it would have to involve a very regular or even constant surveillance at a cellular level, just to begin with. Maybe a nanobot army, but it's science fiction right now.

 

[BlahBlahYouToo]

It will go up because people are getting fatter and fatter just look at all the fatties that ride the bus. These lazy fucks have no will power to keep healthy.

this, obviously.
the only negative to come out of dying fatties is that we'll all be paying for it through obamafuckingcare.

 

[Schadenfroh]

It will go up because people are getting fatter and fatter just look at all the fatties that ride the bus. These lazy fucks have no will power to keep healthy.

A disciple of TheFlyingPig, I see.

 

[Ns1]

rise

everything causes cancer

 

[zinfamous]

I think the first thing that will happen will be that cancer rates will level off, for a long period of time. That would actually be a nice little victory.

 

[edro]

Who cares?

Your mom and I.