Can we stop talking about autonomous cars?

[rh71]

Because it will most certainly be decades before we see many on our streets given how quickly people move into new technology. Now we have some numbers to go by...

https://www.yahoo.com/news/autonomous-car-industry-wrong-172355251.html

Will self-driving cars become ubiquitous? That becomes obvious once you’ve digested the most important lesson in Fight Club: On a long enough timeline, the survival rate for everyone drops to zero. Apply this to cars: There are 274,000,000 cars in the United States, give or take, with a turnover of around 17 million annually. If 100% of cars sold today were self-driving, it would take 16 years to get to 100% ubiquity.

Chris Gerdes, Chief Innovation Officer for the DOT, told The Drive that he thinks 35% of the cars on the road in the United States will be self-driving in ten years.

To get there, 100% of the cars sold would have to be self-driving by 2021.

Not a chance.

And another factor of making it easier for everyone else on the road? Not for a long while...

Will self-driving cars reduce traffic? Bad news for the self-driving industry on this one. The answer is yes, but only once ubiquity is reached where human driving is banned. Anywhere humans and self-driving cars mix, traffic is going to get much worse, and stay that way. Self-driving cars won’t break the law and will be inherently cautious, which means the presence of even one in a mixed autonomous/human driving environment will reduce speeds to a crawl.

Have fun following a car going 55mph on the interstate. Picture them trying to negotiate lane changes among each other while at constant speed. Or a self-driving car waiting for traffic to absolutely clear before making a turn. GTFO.

 

[ultimatebob]

I'm not as pessimistic as you are on this subject. I'd bet that Apple will be releasing their self-driving car system within the next three years, and we all know that tons of people line up to buy whatever Apple is selling no matter how overpriced it is.

The other car manufacturers will need to compete to survive, and we'll at least have a self driving option on most new cars by 2025.

 

[ponyo]

But Telsa needs to raise more money yet again and Uber will need to do huge IPO so the insiders can cash out and unload their shares to the future suckers. How will they do that if there's no hype about autonomous cars?

 

[Red Squirrel]

Yeah I don't think fully autonomous will be around any time soon. If you notice, every time they test these it's on a nice clear smooth paved road with clear markings etc in middle of summer. How would they handle a more typical road that looks like this most of the year? No lines, no clear indication of edge of road. It's even more fun on outer city highways where the snow just gets pushed into the ditch and you can't really tell where the real centre of the road is. Suppose they could add metal wire under the road lines and make that standard then self driving cars would actually magnetically look for these to say in their lane. Then it only has to worry about what's in front. Ex: a slower vehicle.

I think what we'll see is semi autonomous. Features that can help automate certain things like follow the car in front of you if stuck in a traffic jam, etc. I think Teslas actually already have that.

 

[Amused]

No. It's beyond our control.

 

[FeuerFrei]

Sure. I'm not talking about them anyway.
Even if it's feasible it's not something to look forward to. Fossil fuels are fine. And there's this thing called "railroads" for any driverless transport. Keep the autonomous stuff isolated.

 

[dave_the_nerd]

Autonomous semis will put like a million people out of work.

 

[Ruptga]

...which means the presence of even one in a mixed autonomous/human driving environment will reduce speeds to a crawl.

 

[rh71]

I think what we'll see is semi autonomous. Features that can help automate certain things like follow the car in front of you if stuck in a traffic jam, etc. I think Teslas actually already have that.

Radar cruise control has been around for many years now. I know BMW, Infiniti, and Audi uses them, but it's like a $2500 option. Great for traffic jams, but it goes to show you how few people adopt new technology, and slowly if so. More stuff to break and have to fix.

EDIT>> https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Autonomous_cruise_control_system

Autonomous semis will put like a million people out of work.

Truck drivers are highly skilled drivers who have to do a lot of predictive/pre-emptive braking because of unpredictable drivers around them which is learned through years of experience. Can computers read the road similarly?

 

[MagnusTheBrewer]

The op is assuming everything else will remain the same. Autonomous cars will change our society the way cell phones have. Trying to figure out a timeline based on unknown factors is silly.

 

[rh71]

The op is assuming everything else will remain the same. Autonomous cars will change our society the way cell phones have. Trying to figure out a timeline based on unknown factors is silly.

Look how long cell phones took to make it... at least 2 decades, almost 3 before nearly everyone had one. You talk about unknown factors but what is stated about meeting "majority" requiring 100% of sales from X date is true no matter how you slice it so that certainly speaks to the timeline.

I wouldn't mind autonomous, but it will be a long, painful integration with existing cars/pedestrians, which was not a factor for cell phones. Yet we have had people talking about self-driving cars like they are here in a year or two.

 

[Viper GTS]

The op is assuming everything else will remain the same. Autonomous cars will change our society the way cell phones have. Trying to figure out a timeline based on unknown factors is silly.

This. We are (IMHO) on the verge of a paradigm shift in personal transportation. There is no reason that people need to spend 1/2 a year's salary on something that spends 95% of its time sitting doing nothing. We then no longer need to park these 3500 lb objects that are doing nothing, and it cascades from there.

I love cars, and I will own my high performance cars as long as I can but there is no denying the fact that they are absolutely terrible for humanity. They are a massive financial burden for most people, and they are probably killing us all slowly (on top of those that we kill with them due to our own stupidity). I really think this is going to be the major technology advance in my lifetime, and it can't come fast enough.

Viper GTS

 

[Capt Caveman]

Isn't Uber already using them in Pittsburgh? I believe they are using Ford Fusions right now and have ordered 100 Volvo XC90's to add to their autonomous fleet.

 

[K1052]

No. It's beyond our control.

Holy shit he's alive.

 

[rh71]

This. We are (IMHO) on the verge of a paradigm shift in personal transportation. There is no reason that people need to spend 1/2 a year's salary on something that spends 95% of its time sitting doing nothing. We then no longer need to park these 3500 lb objects that are doing nothing, and it cascades from there.

I love cars, and I will own my high performance cars as long as I can but there is no denying the fact that they are absolutely terrible for humanity. They are a massive financial burden for most people, and they are probably killing us all slowly (on top of those that we kill with them due to our own stupidity). I really think this is going to be the major technology advance in my lifetime, and it can't come fast enough.

Yes but this essentially still says "but not for me". I'm at home all day and still value my car to go out whenever I feel like it and not have to "order a car" twice for 1 outing. I take my kids to practice and don't have to depend on the timing of others, come and go as we please. Make a pit-stop at Dairy Queen on the way home as we please. People who have the financial ability will continue to spend on cars. Younger folks don't see it the same way because they've been growing up without their own (there are also more irresponsible kids), but wait until they have families and dependents.

 

[MagnusTheBrewer]

Look how long cell phones took to make it... at least 2 decades, almost 3 before nearly everyone had one. You talk about unknown factors but what is stated about meeting "majority" requiring 100% of sales from X date is true no matter how you slice it.

I wouldn't mind autonomous, but it will be a long, painful integration with existing cars/pedestrians, which was not a factor for cell phones. Yet we have had people talking about self-driving cars like they are here in a year or two.

You're assuming cars will stay exactly the same with the only change being autonomous driving. What if super cheap two seater commuters appear for $5000 or less? What if the Donald initiates some sort of buy back plan to encourage early adoption? What if a number of large cities like San Fran, Denver, Boston decide to go green/modern and others follow suit? These are all pretty unlikely but, so was FB and the rest of social media.

 

[rh71]

^ a Smart car, commuter car, starts at $13k. And we hardly see any on the road. Now you add more tech to it making it more costly...

Large cities do not make up the larger % of car ownership. The surrounding suburbs do, who require personal transportation. Large vehicles due to larger families.

 

[MagnusTheBrewer]

^ a Smart car, commuter car, starts at $13k. And we hardly see any on the road. Now you add more tech to it making it more costly...

Large cities do not make up the larger % of car ownership. The surrounding suburbs do, who require personal transportation. Large vehicles due to larger families.

Is 13k the same as 5k? Large cities create trends which States follow. Owning a cheap commuter in no way precludes also owning a larger vehicle. Maybe these commuters are also electric. The point is evaluating a major change in technology by previous business practices is like managing a company by the bottom line. The one thing it guarantees is going broke/missing opportunities.

 

[K1052]

Is 13k the same as 5k? Large cities create trends which States follow. Owning a cheap commuter in no way precludes also owning a larger vehicle. Maybe these commuters are also electric. The point is evaluating a major change in technology by previous business practices is like managing a company by the bottom line. The one thing it guarantees is going broke/missing opportunities.

Cities will be the first to implement dedicated infrastructure for autonomous cars. This will first be leveraged by the taxi and ride share industry that can afford higher up front costs to reduce long term ones and shrink liability. Eventually cities will be off limits manual driving and we'll be all the better for it. Then the rest of the country. A few decades (at most) from now manually driven cars will be a curiosity relegated to closed courses in the boonies.

 

[MagnusTheBrewer]

Cities will be the first to implement dedicated infrastructure for autonomous cars. This will first be leveraged by the taxi and ride share industry that can afford higher up front costs to reduce long term ones and shrink liability. Eventually cities will be off limits manual driving and we'll be all the better for it. Then the rest of the country. A few decades (at most) from now manually driven cars will be a curiosity relegated to closed courses in the boonies.

Your version sounds a little depressing but, I appreciate your ability to envision a future based on something other than what's directly in front of you.

 

[K1052]

Your version sounds a little depressing but, I appreciate your ability to envision a future based on something other than what's directly in front of you.

Saving 30K+ lives a year sounds like a pretty pleasant view of the future to me.

 

[OverVolt]

Agree with OP glad you figured it out.

 

[OverVolt]

Saving 30K+ lives a year sounds like a pretty pleasant view of the future to me.

Its naive. You could probably save 20k lives if everyone maintained their car better. Its like saying if only we cured poverty the life expectancy would shoot up to 80. Like the world hasn't been trying to solve these problems since they built the Parthenon.

 

[OverVolt]

Cities will be the first to implement dedicated infrastructure for autonomous cars. This will first be leveraged by the taxi and ride share industry that can afford higher up front costs to reduce long term ones and shrink liability. Eventually cities will be off limits manual driving and we'll be all the better for it. Then the rest of the country. A few decades (at most) from now manually driven cars will be a curiosity relegated to closed courses in the boonies.

Hah, if you thought a banana in the tailpipe was bad just wait until teenagers put gum over your crash avoidance sensor.

I just don't see how these things are going to handle the real world dust dirt grime, age, lack of maintenance, and varying stages of obsolete technology on the road at the same time. I can't even read a PDF without 5 patches. ICE cars put up with alot of abuse, its a complete joke if you think joe blow who never gets oil changes and runs his tires at the wrong PSI is going to be zipping through red lights inches away from other cars with computer assisted precision with his 12 year old outdated car.

The real world and 3,000lb of moving mass just don't mix when it comes to computers. Computers operate best in controlled environments like precision manufacturing. The AI is just not going to be there. We can't simulate the way the brain works with digital circuits... its fundamentally the wrong circuitry.

 

[K1052]

Its naive. You could probably save 20k lives if everyone maintained their car better. Its like saying if only we cured poverty the life expectancy would shoot up to 80. Like the world hasn't been trying to solve these problems since they built the Parthenon.

Those comparisons don't even make sense. Most auto deaths aren't caused by poor maintenance, they're caused by poor driving.