My guess is that if Cheney goes W. Bush will go with him. With possible criminal charges aginst both and also perhaps a command performance at the Hague.
Lets face it bad public policy leads to failure. A rising national debt tenable only with low interest rates. A war in Iraq that could rapidly spin out of control. A divided nation with W's popularity falling. Many of W's key players indicted or under investigation. A small cabal of ideologs like Rumsfeld, Rice, Cheney, and Rove setting all national policy.--and rather stupidly at that.
And now the chickens are coming home to roost. The first huge chicken was Katrina--showing Bush who ran as a compassionate conservative is neither compassionate or competent.
Ronald Reagan mired in similar problems with Iran Contra turned things around by admitting blame,
firing his old team, and getting a new team of advisors. Bush might be advised to do the same but probably will not.
Some unforseen event may allow Bush to reassert leadership but failing that I look to the skies and see nothing but incoming chickens coming home to roost. With the top Republican legislative leadership under indictment or investigation, few bright spots exist. But if something goes really bad soon, many will be screaming for his scalp especially when the whistleblowers start to desert a sinking ship.
I certainly remember watergate---in early 74 the smart money was on Nixon surviving. Come June of 74 Nixon still had alot of support. Then the last tapes came out and Nixon was gone in early August of 74 with the Republicans who didn't want that profane liar heading the ticket greasing the skids.
Well, election time is less than a year away. Bush may not know it but he may be fighting for more than his political life. When and if the scandals mature, Bush and Cheney may be in deep trouble, racked by scandal, and even less popular than Hurbert Hoover. High crimes and misdemenors cover alot of ground. Just gonna depend on which chickens roost where.
My senario is not likely but time will tell.