Can the Dems hold both chambers in 2022 because the Repubs are going all-in with Trump (and all his baggage)?

JEDI

Lifer
Sep 25, 2001
29,391
2,736
126

A vast majority of Republicans are still all in on former President Donald Trump -- and a new CBS/YouGov poll reveals just how deep the obsession within the party goes.

For starters, polling showed GOPers want the Republican Party's policies to be modeled off Trump, not vice versa.
More than three-quarters of Republicans polled say the party should follow more of Trump's example on key issue areas, including:
89% want a Trumpian take on economic issues. 88% want to follow Trump's example on immigration issues. 77% prefer Trump's model for how to treat the media.

Digging deeper into the poll's top lines, an overwhelming majority of Republicans said Trump represents the party on every single policy issue asked about. The lowest percentage of GOP interest in a Trump-style policy effort? How Trump treats liberals, but even that mustered a solid 69% support.

This is yet another striking example of how the Republican Party base is intertwining with Trump himself. As CBS pollster Anthony Salvanto put it: "It's a personal connection to him we've seen for years."

The poll also found that 66% said other Republicans being loyal to Trump is important, which brings us to the matter of Liz Cheney. Among those polled, a whopping 80% of those who were familiar with the GOP move to oust Rep. Liz Cheney from House leadership supported it.

For all that was made of Cheney's stand against Trump, this is yet another sign that the non-Trump lane within the Republican Party is extremely narrow, if it exists at all.

The Point: Bad news for those searching for signs of a non-Trump path within the Republican Party. Right now, the vast majority of GOP members are still very big on the former President -- and not much else.


Normally in mid-term elections, the party who holds the WhiteHouse has a tough time in House/Senate races.

But....
Going all-in with Trump will alienate alot of people.
also, some hardcore Repubs wont vote for him. (but they wont vote Dem. They'll just sit it out.)

# Dems + alienated Repubs > # Trump zealots - nonTrump hardcore Repubs?
 
Last edited:

sportage

Lifer
Feb 1, 2008
11,492
3,161
136
I worry about this, the democrats losing one or both in 2022. That would be a nightmare and empower Donald Trump to run in 2024, which he most definitely would do if democrats lose in 2022. For them, for Trump, democrats losing in 2022 will be a sign that Trump could win in 2024. As they say, republicans are terrible at running the government but masters at winning elections. No matter how wonderful Joe Biden is or how high Biden's approval ratings were as president, democrats could still lose everything in 2022. People are idiots. They won't focus on the good things that Biden has done, voters will instead become distracted by republican scare tactics, by republican distortions of the truth, by republican lies, and that could easily hand republicans a victory in 2022. That is why I keep saying... Joe Biden and every democrat in congress must draw a clear line in the sand, and then repeat with every chance what is at stake should republicans retake the house and or the senate come 2022. Biden needs to state this clearly, """we must purge government of the republican obstructionist. Every republican must be ousted in 2022""". Joe must declare all out war against republicans beginning TODAY, vocally, at every speaking opportunity, and continue that vocal war day in and day out. If democrats want to win then republicans in congress must go. Americans, who want and agree with that Joe Biden's agenda yet continue to vote for republicans is insanity. And.... political suicide. Joe... Biden.... NO MORE MR NICE GUY. Remember Obama. Remember Mitch McConnell and president Obama. No more kumbaya, Mr Joe Biden. "" IF "" you want to win then act like you want to win, and to win against those republicans trying to murder this Joe Biden American agenda.
 

JEDI

Lifer
Sep 25, 2001
29,391
2,736
126
I worry about this, the democrats losing one or both in 2022. That would be a nightmare and empower Donald Trump to run in 2024, which he most definitely would do if democrats lose in 2022. For them, for Trump, democrats losing in 2022 will be a sign that Trump could win in 2024. As they say, republicans are terrible at running the government but masters at winning elections. No matter how wonderful Joe Biden is or how high Biden's approval ratings were as president, democrats could still lose everything in 2022. People are idiots. They won't focus on the good things that Biden has done, voters will instead become distracted by republican scare tactics, by republican distortions of the truth, by republican lies, and that could easily hand republicans a victory in 2022. That is why I keep saying... Joe Biden and every democrat in congress must draw a clear line in the sand, and then repeat with every chance what is at stake should republicans retake the house and or the senate come 2022. Biden needs to state this clearly, """we must purge government of the republican obstructionist. Every republican must be ousted in 2022""". Joe must declare all out war against republicans beginning TODAY, vocally, at every speaking opportunity, and continue that vocal war day in and day out. If democrats want to win then republicans in congress must go. Americans, who want and agree with that Joe Biden's agenda yet continue to vote for republicans is insanity. And.... political suicide. Joe... Biden.... NO MORE MR NICE GUY. Remember Obama. Remember Mitch McConnell and president Obama. No more kumbaya, Mr Joe Biden. "" IF "" you want to win then act like you want to win, and to win against those republicans trying to murder this Joe Biden American agenda.
ahhh.. my eyes... wall of txt.

i agree on the only part i read, which was the Bolded Part
 

IronWing

No Lifer
Jul 20, 2001
70,165
28,813
136
The Dems ain't holding shit unless they deliver big on their promises and do big things for the American people. I suppose it might be possible but I suspect that 2022 will be 2010 all over again. The Dems are too timid, too easily distracted, and generally think too small.
 

woolfe9998

Lifer
Apr 8, 2013
16,189
14,114
136

A vast majority of Republicans are still all in on former President Donald Trump -- and a new CBS/YouGov poll reveals just how deep the obsession within the party goes.

For starters, polling showed GOPers want the Republican Party's policies to be modeled off Trump, not vice versa.
More than three-quarters of Republicans polled say the party should follow more of Trump's example on key issue areas, including:
89% want a Trumpian take on economic issues. 88% want to follow Trump's example on immigration issues. 77% prefer Trump's model for how to treat the media.

Digging deeper into the poll's top lines, an overwhelming majority of Republicans said Trump represents the party on every single policy issue asked about. The lowest percentage of GOP interest in a Trump-style policy effort? How Trump treats liberals, but even that mustered a solid 69% support.

This is yet another striking example of how the Republican Party base is intertwining with Trump himself. As CBS pollster Anthony Salvanto put it: "It's a personal connection to him we've seen for years."

The poll also found that 66% said other Republicans being loyal to Trump is important, which brings us to the matter of Liz Cheney. Among those polled, a whopping 80% of those who were familiar with the GOP move to oust Rep. Liz Cheney from House leadership supported it.

For all that was made of Cheney's stand against Trump, this is yet another sign that the non-Trump lane within the Republican Party is extremely narrow, if it exists at all.

The Point: Bad news for those searching for signs of a non-Trump path within the Republican Party. Right now, the vast majority of GOP members are still very big on the former President -- and not much else.


Normally in mid-term elections, the party who holds the WhiteHouse has a tough time in House/Senate races.

But....
Going all-in with Trump will alienate alot of people.
also, some hardcore Repubs wont vote for him. (but they wont vote Dem. They'll just sit it out.)

# Dems + alienated Repubs > # Trump zealots - nonTrump hardcore Repubs?

It isn't about which blocs of voters are persuaded for one party or the other. For the midterms especially, it's all about motivation and turnout. Traditionally the voters of the party not in the White House have stronger motivation and higher turnout.
 

weblooker2021

Senior member
Jan 18, 2021
749
254
96
Base on history, party that is in charge of White House doesn't do good in midterm elections. I expect Republicans to win back Congress. Democrats probably will hold on to the Senate.
 

senseamp

Lifer
Feb 5, 2006
35,787
6,197
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If GOP continues with their Trump cultism, and SCOTUS is dumb enough to overturn Roe and scare away suburban women from their party and energize them on opposing side in a 66% pro-choice country, Democrats have a decent chance, IMO.
 
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cytg111

Lifer
Mar 17, 2008
23,971
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I think if those "republicans" are more than just bark about splitting the party, it needs to happen now, get in there with the message before midterms. As in right now. After midterms, all non-trumpers will either have been beaten into submission and/or booted from the party. They will go out with a whimper and forever recorded in history as pussies.
Break Free Now.
Now.
 
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HomerJS

Lifer
Feb 6, 2002
36,671
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The Dems ain't holding shit unless they deliver big on their promises and do big things for the American people. I suppose it might be possible but I suspect that 2022 will be 2010 all over again. The Dems are too timid, too easily distracted, and generally think too small.
Biden's agenda isn't small. Problem is the Senate. Manchin and Sinema are holding things back. With only 50 Senate votes we can't get fillibuster reform let alone removed. History is against the Dems but GA has shown us something. Crazy Trumpism isn't selling amongst the general electorate. Also voter supression is pissing off black people enough and motivating them to come out.
 
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gothuevos

Platinum Member
Jul 28, 2010
2,296
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Don't forget that redistricting is coming, and the GOP will hold a huge advantage there. They will almost certainly flip the House. The Senate, I'm not sure, but it's such a razor thin majority that anything is possible.

Biden looks to be like most recent Presidents in terms of one and done with any major legislation (Obama with ACA, Trump with tax cuts, Biden with COVID relief). The tide eventually turns against the incumbent.

Also expect Trump to run and be fully competitive in 2024, if not win.

After that....well, buckle up, who knows what changes they'll bring. Likely back onto the path of a one party state.

And honestly I don't care anymore...don't have the energy to. When nearly half of the population outright wants, craves authoritarianism... it's inevitable.

At this point just try to enjoy each day as it is, but have a valid passport and exit plan ready as well.
 
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HomerJS

Lifer
Feb 6, 2002
36,671
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Don't forget that redistricting is coming, and the GOP will hold a huge advantage there. They will almost certainly flip the House. The Senate, I'm not sure, but it's such a razor thin majority that anything is possible.
The passing of HR-4 could fix this. Maybe the Senate can find a way to waive filibuster for this with a civil rights justification.
 

JEDI

Lifer
Sep 25, 2001
29,391
2,736
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The passing of HR-4 could fix this. Maybe the Senate can find a way to waive filibuster for this with a civil rights justification.
Waiving filibuster only takes 50votes + vp vote in senate?

But alas, it sets bad precedent.
Repubs will then use it in the future when they have control.
Waives filibuster because we're White and Rich justification.

best way is to change the filibuster back to last century rules where you have to speak on the Senate floor (about anything) for hours/days to stop the bill
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
85,581
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Waiving filibuster only takes 50votes + vp vote in senate?

But alas, it sets bad precedent.
Repubs will then use it in the future when they have control.
Waives filibuster because we're White and Rich justification.

best way is to change the filibuster back to last century rules where you have to speak on the Senate floor (about anything) for hours/days to stop the bill
No, the best way is to eliminate the filibuster entirely. Remember, the filibuster is essentially eliminated the filibuster for all the things Republicans care about anyway which is just tax cuts and confirming judges. The filibuster only exists now to block Democratic legislation. Last time they held all 3 parts of government the filibuster didn't save anything - the reason Republicans couldn't repeal the ACA is they couldn't even muster 50 votes for it.

If for no other reason gerrymandering will probably be enough for Republicans to win the House back. As I mentioned in another thread there's a very good chance that the Democrats win the overall House vote vote by 2-3% and this results in a 'landslide' win for Republicans.
 
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Greenman

Lifer
Oct 15, 1999
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More than three-quarters of Republicans polled say the party should follow more of Trump's example on key issue areas, including:
89% want a Trumpian take on economic issues. 88% want to follow Trump's example on immigration issues. 77% prefer Trump's model for how to treat the media.

The first two of those issues have always been near the top of the republican list. The media issue is relatively new, but not surprising as much of it leans left.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
85,581
50,768
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More than three-quarters of Republicans polled say the party should follow more of Trump's example on key issue areas, including:
89% want a Trumpian take on economic issues. 88% want to follow Trump's example on immigration issues. 77% prefer Trump's model for how to treat the media.

The first two of those issues have always been near the top of the republican list. The media issue is relatively new, but not surprising as much of it leans left.
As previously established this is a myth. Republicans fundamentally misunderstand the purpose of the media and assume anything that isn't partisan right wing media must be left wing media. They literally do not understand the concept of nonpartisan media.

Regardless, as to the OP Trump will be a drag on the party in 2022 as he was in 2020 but the system is so biased in their favor that it may not matter as to if they win control of the House.
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
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I really think people strongly overestimate the probability that Trump will run again in 2024. I'm not saying I'm sure he won't but the odds are definitely well below 50%.
 
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ewdotson

Golden Member
Oct 30, 2011
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Trumpism can well survive without Trump running 2024.
I mean, Trumpism will definitely be a thing, but imo the big question going forward is whether or not they'll be able to transfer the cult of personality that's grown up around Trump to another person. I'm not sure that's a given, and it *is* a factor.
 
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cytg111

Lifer
Mar 17, 2008
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I mean, Trumpism will definitely be a thing, but imo the big question going forward is whether or not they'll be able to transfer the cult of personality that's grown up around Trump to another person. I'm not sure that's a given, and it *is* a factor.
100%. They will run Trumpism in the midterms and if that is a success, they'll gear up for the succession 2024. Unless Trump if facing hard time, he will gladly take a bribe and "trump up" whatever authoritarian candidate they have conjured up next.
If Trumpism midterms is a dud, it may begin to look like the age of Trumpism is over... for now.
 

hal2kilo

Lifer
Feb 24, 2009
24,205
10,865
136

A vast majority of Republicans are still all in on former President Donald Trump -- and a new CBS/YouGov poll reveals just how deep the obsession within the party goes.

For starters, polling showed GOPers want the Republican Party's policies to be modeled off Trump, not vice versa.
More than three-quarters of Republicans polled say the party should follow more of Trump's example on key issue areas, including:
89% want a Trumpian take on economic issues. 88% want to follow Trump's example on immigration issues. 77% prefer Trump's model for how to treat the media.

Digging deeper into the poll's top lines, an overwhelming majority of Republicans said Trump represents the party on every single policy issue asked about. The lowest percentage of GOP interest in a Trump-style policy effort? How Trump treats liberals, but even that mustered a solid 69% support.

This is yet another striking example of how the Republican Party base is intertwining with Trump himself. As CBS pollster Anthony Salvanto put it: "It's a personal connection to him we've seen for years."

The poll also found that 66% said other Republicans being loyal to Trump is important, which brings us to the matter of Liz Cheney. Among those polled, a whopping 80% of those who were familiar with the GOP move to oust Rep. Liz Cheney from House leadership supported it.

For all that was made of Cheney's stand against Trump, this is yet another sign that the non-Trump lane within the Republican Party is extremely narrow, if it exists at all.

The Point: Bad news for those searching for signs of a non-Trump path within the Republican Party. Right now, the vast majority of GOP members are still very big on the former President -- and not much else.


Normally in mid-term elections, the party who holds the WhiteHouse has a tough time in House/Senate races.

But....
Going all-in with Trump will alienate alot of people.
also, some hardcore Repubs wont vote for him. (but they wont vote Dem. They'll just sit it out.)

# Dems + alienated Repubs > # Trump zealots - nonTrump hardcore Repubs?
Oh, I just hope they keep the cray cray turned up to 11. At least scare the normie pubs from voting.