can someone give a general overview of the current world financial situation?

weflyhigh

Senior member
Jan 1, 2007
971
1
81
what's going on with the general global economy? I have several important interviews coming up and while I have been trying to catch up on financial news through reading WSJ/NYT, most of it is very specific and I'm looking for a more broad look. (basically so if an interviewer asked "what do you think of the current markets/global economy?" I could give a quick enough answer and not stumble around like an idiot)
 

Crono

Lifer
Aug 8, 2001
23,720
1,503
136
- The U.S. has snail like recovery 5 years after credit crunch - unemployment figures go up and down by (relatively) small amounts, nation still has a ton of debt. Not a lot of progress, but we aren't sliding backwards at this point and being an election year a lot of things are in flux

- Eurozone (Europe) still precarious because of debt crisis, though countries like Germany and France are still faring much better than Greece, Spain, and Italy

- Asia is still mostly growing, though more slowly
 
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Bateluer

Lifer
Jun 23, 2001
27,730
8
0
Its broke because everyone spent money they didn't have, then tried to spend their way out of debt.
 

jagec

Lifer
Apr 30, 2004
24,442
6
81
images
 

Svnla

Lifer
Nov 10, 2003
17,986
1,388
126
Current global economy?

Asia - China is slowing down because export is down due to weak demand in US and EU, Japan just raised their sale tax.

EU - it is a mess. Greece is underwater, Spain and Italy are barely breathing and others may join Greece if things don't get better soon.

US - still over 8.xx% unemployment rate for a while, slow growth.

Australia - slowing down due to weaker comodities demand from China (see above).

Read CNBC, Bloomberg, and BusinessWeek for some more quick information.
 

OverVolt

Lifer
Aug 31, 2002
14,278
89
91
This October will be bad.

Europe is not good. I still have the bookmark on Spain/Portugal:

http://www.caseyresearch.com/cdd/marx-madness

Rather, what I would like to do is encapsulate, in as few words as I am capable, the essence of the problems facing Europe, and leave it to you to draw your own conclusions. To assist in that regard, I will use my observations on the ground in Portugal.

There, it was tldr.
 
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IGBT

Lifer
Jul 16, 2001
17,976
141
106
stand by for a world wide going out of business fire sale. We are on the threshold of terminal debt velocity. We can only circle the drain for so long.
 

Destiny

Platinum Member
Jul 6, 2010
2,270
1
0
Everything in the nutt shell...

Mortgage Back Securities, Structured Investment Vehicles, Collateral debt obligations and other USA made derivative investments were the #1 USA Product being sold all over the world and for some time it was the #1 USA export to other countries... USA Banks were one of the first to realize it was junk and we went through the financial crisis and are trying to recover from it... now the rest of the world realized its junk and their banks and economies are suffering ffrom it...
 

CPA

Elite Member
Nov 19, 2001
30,322
4
0
Governments are spending more money than what they can collect from their citizens in order to buy votes. Everything plays off this.
 

dullard

Elite Member
May 21, 2001
26,187
4,853
126
One word can sum it up: debt.

The US economy was destroyed by US household debt. People owed way more than they could afford on cars, education, credit cards, and especially mortgages. http://blogs.reuters.com/rolfe-winkler/2009/12/10/households-cut-debt-have-long-way-to-go/ This means people had to spend less to make up for it. Spending less means lower business sales, which means fewer jobs (and lower taxes), and which means consumers have to cut back further.

Politicians of course, are playing the US problem as a government debt problem. Government debt here is high, but not dramatically high (US goverment debt/GDP has been higher in the past without problem for example). So when politicians are attacking the wrong problem, the recovery is going to be slow (not that debt problems are ever fast to recover from though).

In Greece the problem is government debt. They just owe far more than they could ever pay back. Cutting back doesn't solve the problem when the majority of all Greeks are government workers. Cutting back for them to reduce debt means that they fire workers, which leads to a bad economy, lower tax revenues, and MORE government debt.

In Spain the problem is banking debt. Spain's government doesn't owe much, Spain's people don't owe much. But Spain's banks owe far more than they can afford. That means that there is no more lending, no more businesses expanding with loans, no more customers spending with help from loans. The economy crashes. Unless of course the bank debt is bailed out, by Spain, which then makes Spain's government too far into debt to survive.

Other countries are mixes in between the three.

Debt problems can only really be solved with time. Time and pain. Debt gets slowly paid down. You probably can't pay off your education / mortage loans in a year or two. Neither can other consumers, governments, or banks. Most of the attempts to pay it off sooner are either drastic (causing bigger problems elsewhere) or futile (borrowing from your left pocket to pay your right pocket). Time allows debt to be paid off bit by bit.

Of course, spending less and bringing in more revenue helps. But that often means prolonging the economic woes. If consumers spend less, the economy slows making it near impossible for them to raise their revenue (income). If goverments spend less or raise revenue by raising taxes, the economy suffers similarly. If banks loan less or raise fees, fewer people/companies borrow which hurts the economy.
 
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dullard

Elite Member
May 21, 2001
26,187
4,853
126
Governments are spending more money than what they can collect from their citizens in order to buy votes. Everything plays off this.
That is definately true. All democracies have eventually failed when politicians realize they can buy votes.

It isn't the biggest current problem in certain countries (like the US); however, it is a looming future problem in all democracies though (including the US).
 

techs

Lifer
Sep 26, 2000
28,559
4
0
IMO no one has touched on the real problem.

Over the last 20 years their has been a massive amount of industrialization and economic growth in countries like China and India.

China in particular has a governmental policy that keeps its workers from using their new jobs to purchase consumer goods in anything like the same proportion the western economies do. China, for instance, keeps its social safety net low which means workers are more inclined to save money instead of spending it. China also keeps its currency artificially low so its workers can buy less for their money.

At the same time companies in these new economies have systems or economic realities that pay workers a smaller percentage of the cost of manufacturing than western democracies. So more money is going to the wealthiest once again leaving less for these workers to spend.

Lastly China is taking a lot of the money that would end up in workers pockets and even money from the rich and using it to loan to western democracies so they can keep those countries buying Chinese goods in a plan to move as much of the manufacturing, etc to China.

So the short version is that the economies of the western democracies have reduced wages to their workers and transferred wealth into non productive rich peoples pockets. Governments have had their revenues reduced which among other things has thrown their spending out of balance.

Its a system that is now breaking down.
 

dmcowen674

No Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
54,889
47
91
www.alienbabeltech.com
IMO no one has touched on the real problem.

Over the last 20 years their has been a massive amount of industrialization and economic growth in countries like China and India.

China in particular has a governmental policy that keeps its workers from using their new jobs to purchase consumer goods in anything like the same proportion the western economies do. China, for instance, keeps its social safety net low which means workers are more inclined to save money instead of spending it. China also keeps its currency artificially low so its workers can buy less for their money.

At the same time companies in these new economies have systems or economic realities that pay workers a smaller percentage of the cost of manufacturing than western democracies. So more money is going to the wealthiest once again leaving less for these workers to spend.

Lastly China is taking a lot of the money that would end up in workers pockets and even money from the rich and using it to loan to western democracies so they can keep those countries buying Chinese goods in a plan to move as much of the manufacturing, etc to China.

So the short version is that the economies of the western democracies have reduced wages to their workers and transferred wealth into non productive rich peoples pockets. Governments have had their revenues reduced which among other things has thrown their spending out of balance.

Its a system that is now breaking down.

Techs has learned well from posting in P&N

You can only rob Peter to pay Paul for so long before Peter runs out of money.
 

weflyhigh

Senior member
Jan 1, 2007
971
1
81
Read this thread in the 10 minutes I was waiting between interviewer 3 and 4 and then interview 4 was supposed to take 30 minutes but we basically finished in 20. He asked about how much I knew about the global markets and I did a pretty good job regurgitating what I read. I mostly remembered what Crono and Dullard wrote

only problem was interview 1 where the guy asked me some basic finance questions and I had no idea. couldn't even give a good explanation of MBS. oh well. other ones went great.

thanks
 

rifken2

Member
Feb 1, 2010
140
0
71
China refusing to play fair in the world market by keeping their currency artifically low...