Can someone explain the Delegate count?

imported_cinder

Senior member
Sep 19, 2006
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I have a few questions about delegates:

How does the delegate count work?
Who are the delegates?
Why are these delegate counts significant to the presidential primaries?

I would like to better understand our voting system and hopefully vote in the primary on March 4th here in Texas. Please refrain from flaming me for asking such a question. Thanks in advance for any positive, informative responses.
 

ProfJohn

Lifer
Jul 28, 2006
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There are two types of delegates.

The first type are the ones voted on by the various states. These are people who are active members of the party who pledge to support a certain candidate. These were the ones picked today.

The other type are 'super delegates' who are elected members of the party, congressmen, senators and I think governors.

Add them all together and you get the total delegates.

The delegates count because these are the people who will vote to nominate a certain candidate.

Whoever gets to 50%+1 wins the nomination regardless of how many states they won or lost.

BTW the Republicans don't have the 'super delegates'
 
Apr 17, 2003
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just to add to what John has said, I **think** some delegates are elected by popular vote in each congressional district.
 

akshatp

Diamond Member
Oct 15, 1999
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Why are these delegate counts significant to the presidential primaries?

John your input is appreciated, but it didnt really explain much as to their significance. For example, if I voted for Hillary today, what does it mean that she won the state that I live in? Do the delegates have the ultimate vote as to who runs for the Dems?

I is so confused!
 

fskimospy

Elite Member
Mar 10, 2006
84,039
48,031
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When you vote in a primary in a state you are actually voting for delegates. The exact rules for this are different for each state. (some are winner take all, some are more proportional) Whoever has a majority of the delegates vote for them at the Republican/Democratic convention gets the party's nomination to be president.

The Democrats don't have winner take all states, so Hillary winning the state that you live in probably doesn't actually mean that much. If Obama was close in vote %, he probably got a similar number of delegates.
 

Lemon law

Lifer
Nov 6, 2005
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The other point to make is that the delegates a given candidate wins in the primary caucus process are basically pledged to vote for their candidate only on the first convention ballot.
In recent years, on both the democratic and Republican sides, some candidate has arrived at the political convention with more than 50% of the total delegates already in their pocket.

But with two big States, California and New York already weighed in and over 50% of the States already weighed in, no Democratic or Republican candidate is on pace to get 50% of the delegates yet.

Which means that we may get political conventions which take two or more rounds of balloting to decide the nomination. And once the political convention goes beyond the first ballot, all delegate bets are off as they become wild cards. In the 1940 Republican convention, some one who was not even running for President got the GOP nomination.
 

Lemon law

Lifer
Nov 6, 2005
20,984
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Originally posted by: Pabster
Exciting, indeed, Lemon. Could we be in for TWO brokered conventions?

Yes indeed we might Pabster. I used to think it was more likely on the GOP side but am now somewhat thinking it may be more likely on the democratic side. But we could get zero, one, or two free for all conventions.

As a condescending European colonialist might say, the natives are restless tonight as a description of the mood of the American voter. Or a diner sitting at a resturant table with an upset stomach, looking at the menu, knowing they have to eat, but nothing looks good.
 

dullard

Elite Member
May 21, 2001
25,066
3,415
126
Cinder it is all really simple.

First, remember that all 50 states, Washington DC, and the US territories all have their own version of how to do this. So, begin by memorizing all the bylaws in all 50+ areas. For starters, is it a caucus, a primary, or a convention? Then is it winner take all or is it divided? If it is divided is it by popular vote in the state or by popular vote in each region within the state*? Are there bonuses (Republicans) or are there superdelegates (Democrats)? Are the delegates proportional to the size of the state, to the size of the voters in the state, to the size of the party within the state, or some other arbitrary rule? Does this state have penalties for voting for the wrong party in past local, state, and national elections? Does this state have penalties for violating the party rules? Answer each of those questions for each state and territory as they all will vary in each of those points. So, memorize ~55 different sets of rules. Oh and double that because what they do for the democrat side is not what they do for the republican side. And that doesn't even include the 3rd party candidates.

* For clarity, suppose your region is 51% for candidate X and 49% for candidate Y and that your region gets 5 delegates. Clearly the fairest way to divide these delegates is for X to get 3 delegates and Y to get 2 delegates. The person with the most votes got more delegates. But, now suppose your region is 57% for candidate X, 43% for candidate Y, and that your region gets 4 delegates. Do you give each 2 delegates (50/50 split) or do you give one candidate 3 and the other candidate 1 (75/25) split? Clearly since 50/50 is closer to the actual vote of 57/43, you give each candidate 2 delegates. So even though in this case one candidate had a substantial win, each candidate gets the same number of delegates.

Then realize that you aren't even voting for the presidential candidates. You are voting for people who will vote for the presidential candidates. Sounds fine and dandy if they vote the way you want them to vote. But there isn't anything binding. There are ~26 delegates that were supposed to vote for Edwards. But Edwards isn't in the running. So who do these 26 delegates vote for? That is anyone's guess.

Also, realize that the votes in the primary, caucus, or convention might not actually be related to the delegates at all. Take Iowa for example. The people voted too early for the democrat and republican party laws. But, no fear there is a solution to that, simply have the Iowa delgates selected far after the popular vote in a mannor that is only indirectly related to how the people actually voted. That way, the delegate selection is done in the proper time period and the delegates also count.

Finally, once the delegates vote, there might not be a clear winner. In which case, each party has their own complicated list of proceedures which essentially is a free-for-all and the popular vote is meaningless at that stage.

Oh and remember, these rules change approximately yearly, so you must relearn this for each election.

As you can see, even a 10 year old could easilly figure this all out. We could have a simple national poll where the person with the most votes is the nominee, but since our current system is so simple, why change it?
 

Lemon law

Lifer
Nov 6, 2005
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The dullard explanation reminds me of a statement made regarding our banking system in 1932 by a fellow named William Gibbs McAdoo---" Our banking system would do credit to a collection of imbeciles."

Now just substitute the words primary and caucus for banking, and its perfect. Its not just mere insanity, its a highly organized and ritualized dance that replaced an even worse system,
so please regard it as a set of reformed imbeciles.
 
Feb 6, 2007
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How do they decide how many delegates come from each state? Alaska has 13 delegates for 400 voters, or roughly 1 delegate for every 31 people. Georgia has 45 delegates for over 1 million voters, or 1 delegate per 23,000 voters. How does that make any sense at all? Does Alaska really need that strong a voice?

The primary system is completely fucked. Good thing I'm a registered independent so I can't participate!

Stupid electoral process...
 

ProfJohn

Lifer
Jul 28, 2006
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Originally posted by: Atomic Playboy
How do they decide how many delegates come from each state? Alaska has 13 delegates for 400 voters, or roughly 1 delegate for every 31 people. Georgia has 45 delegates for over 1 million voters, or 1 delegate per 23,000 voters. How does that make any sense at all? Does Alaska really need that strong a voice?

The primary system is completely fucked. Good thing I'm a registered independent so I can't participate!

Stupid electoral process...
It's based on state population.

Also each party has a different number of delegates so you can't compare Republican results to Democrat result.

After that you throw in the fact that some states have more Democrats than Republicans and it gets very confusing.

But forget all the complicated things and remember that the person with the most delegates wins.
 

Pabster

Lifer
Apr 15, 2001
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I think much of the confusion revolves around the 'super delegates'.

Some of the sites reporting delegate totals are either not counting them at all, or making a best-guess estimate on them.
 

dullard

Elite Member
May 21, 2001
25,066
3,415
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Originally posted by: ProfJohn
It's based on state population.

Also each party has a different number of delegates so you can't compare Republican results to Democrat result.

After that you throw in the fact that some states have more Democrats than Republicans and it gets very confusing.

But forget all the complicated things and remember that the person with the most delegates wins.
You forgot the biggie. If a state always votes democrat in local, state, and national elections, then that state gets far fewer republican delegates. The RNC simply doesn't care about that state because they won't be voting republican.

Combined with your comments above, you can see why some people in some locations have a very strong say, while in other locations you get very few delegates per voter.

 

RightIsWrong

Diamond Member
Apr 29, 2005
5,649
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Originally posted by: dullard
Cinder it is all really simple.

First, remember that all 50 states, Washington DC, and the US territories all have their own version of how to do this. So, begin by memorizing all the bylaws in all 50+ areas. For starters, is it a caucus, a primary, or a convention? Then is it winner take all or is it divided? If it is divided is it by popular vote in the state or by popular vote in each region within the state*? Are there bonuses (Republicans) or are there superdelegates (Democrats)? Are the delegates proportional to the size of the state, to the size of the voters in the state, to the size of the party within the state, or some other arbitrary rule? Does this state have penalties for voting for the wrong party in past local, state, and national elections? Does this state have penalties for violating the party rules? Answer each of those questions for each state and territory as they all will vary in each of those points. So, memorize ~55 different sets of rules. Oh and double that because what they do for the democrat side is not what they do for the republican side. And that doesn't even include the 3rd party candidates.

* For clarity, suppose your region is 51% for candidate X and 49% for candidate Y and that your region gets 5 delegates. Clearly the fairest way to divide these delegates is for X to get 3 delegates and Y to get 2 delegates. The person with the most votes got more delegates. But, now suppose your region is 57% for candidate X, 43% for candidate Y, and that your region gets 4 delegates. Do you give each 2 delegates (50/50 split) or do you give one candidate 3 and the other candidate 1 (75/25) split? Clearly since 50/50 is closer to the actual vote of 57/43, you give each candidate 2 delegates. So even though in this case one candidate had a substantial win, each candidate gets the same number of delegates.

Then realize that you aren't even voting for the presidential candidates. You are voting for people who will vote for the presidential candidates. Sounds fine and dandy if they vote the way you want them to vote. But there isn't anything binding. There are ~26 delegates that were supposed to vote for Edwards. But Edwards isn't in the running. So who do these 26 delegates vote for? That is anyone's guess.

Also, realize that the votes in the primary, caucus, or convention might not actually be related to the delegates at all. Take Iowa for example. The people voted too early for the democrat and republican party laws. But, no fear there is a solution to that, simply have the Iowa delgates selected far after the popular vote in a mannor that is only indirectly related to how the people actually voted. That way, the delegate selection is done in the proper time period and the delegates also count.

Finally, once the delegates vote, there might not be a clear winner. In which case, each party has their own complicated list of proceedures which essentially is a free-for-all and the popular vote is meaningless at that stage.

Oh and remember, these rules change approximately yearly, so you must relearn this for each election.

As you can see, even a 10 year old could easilly figure this all out. We could have a simple national poll where the person with the most votes is the nominee, but since our current system is so simple, why change it?

Thanks for this Dullard. I had been a little unclear on some of these processes as well and your explanation in LCD (Lowest common denominator) terms has made it as clear as a fish tank full of algae for me.

I now can proudfully state that I am utterly clueless as to why we allow two parties to control our country in the manner in which they do.
 

imported_cinder

Senior member
Sep 19, 2006
258
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0
I just want to say thanks again to all the responses. The sarcastic comment at the end of Dullard's explanation is great and brings up questions about our broken voting system. If you haven't been to WhyTuesday.org, then I encourage you to do so. This is a site about why we even vote on Tuesday and other ridiculous issues plaguing our voting system. This site encourages voter participation for both parties. It also attempts to get the stance from each candidate about where their plan, if any at all, for voting system reform. Any other cool sites around like this one I would like to visit them so please post up the link!
 

Fern

Elite Member
Sep 30, 2003
26,907
173
106
Originally posted by: cinder
I have a few questions about delegates:

How does the delegate count work?
This is incredibly complicated. Many top party and campaign officials admit that they don't understand it. Aside from the rather obvious statement that the candidate with the majority of delegates at the convention wins, there are many other consideration.

You should probrably just focus on your own state, as the various states all have different rules for the most part. Trying to learn them all will make your head assplode.

First, you might google and check various sites that explain how many national delegates your state gets. It's not JUST based on population etc.

Then you might check with your state party's site to see how they are awarding delegates to candidates based on voting. Likely It's not just simply proportional.

Without knowing which party you are going to vote, I can't help much as in most states the different parties do things differently.


Who are the delegates?
Here again, check your state info. Typically they are chosen by the party in your state, whether voted in or chosen. here again, you'll need to check your state's specific rules on that.


Why are these delegate counts significant to the presidential primaries?
This should have been answered already

I would like to better understand our voting system and hopefully vote in the primary on March 4th here in Texas. Please refrain from flaming me for asking such a question. Thanks in advance for any positive, informative responses.
One final thing, make sure you're registered and the info is up-to-date. Also, determine if your state has a closed or open primary and make sure you're eligible to vote in the primary (Dem or Repub) you want. If you don't know know what open or closed primaries are, google it.

There's a superb site for all these rules. Link www.thegreenpapers.com

It's a study of all state/nation party rules. It's maintained by some guy who has had this as his life-long hobby.

Go there and scroll to find rules specific to the Texas (or any other state) primary, both Dem & Repub rules can be found.

Fern
 

PolymerTim

Senior member
Apr 29, 2002
383
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0
One thing I'm trying to figure out is how some news sites estimate the superdelegates votes. I mean, if I understand correctly, they are not pledged or anything so how is their likely vote determined?