Can America fight a regional war in East Asia NOW?

[Narmer]

Right now we are fighting two wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Can we fight another one if China miscalculates with Taiwan? How about with North Korea? When I was in Japan last month, the North Koreans kidnapped yet another Japanese (guy in his early to middle fifties) while he was walking on the beach. The Japanese are very frustrated by this because they are limited by their constitution, written by MacArthur.

If something was to go drastically wrong in that region, can we fight? Can we rally the world to come to the aid of the Japanese (who slaughtered millions of Asians in WWII)? Can we defend Taiwan, which is in an ambigious state? Will we need a draft? Will there be a draft? Will Americans die for Japanese or Taiwanese?

 

[Aegeon]

Originally posted by: Narmer
Right now we are fighting two wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Can we fight another one if China miscalculates with Taiwan?

If something was to go drastically wrong in that region, can we fight? Can we rally the world to come to the aid of the Japanese (who slaughtered millions of Asians in WWII)? Can we defend Taiwan, which is in an ambigious state? Will we need a draft? Will there be a draft? Will Americans die for Japanese or Taiwanese?

Uh, first of all, Japan would be completely able to defend itself without any help. (The only exception would be if we're talking about China attacking them and going nuclear, and its not like our nuclear weapons are tied up in Iraq and Afghanistan.) A strong argument can be made that Japan has the second most powerful navy in the world when in a defensive role. At most the US could give some airpower and naval support to make things even more decisive. North Korea's Navy and Air Force could not even effectively pose much of a threat of Japan.

With regards to defending Taiwan, the reality is right now Taiwan could stop China from a direct invasion without the US intervening at all, at least in any situation where China is worried about the US intervening if they take too much time. Two key facts are that Taiwan proper is a significant distance from the Chinese mainland, and Taiwan can mobilize over 1.5 million troops if attacked. This means all that needs to be done to prevent China from winning is prevent China from being able to transport too many troops into Taiwan too rapidly. China doesn't remotely have close to enough amphibious capability to pull this off right now. Even in the reasonably near future, all the US will need to do is dedicated airpower and naval units in order to ensure a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would fail. Most of the US Air Force units relevant to such a scenario, and virtually all of the naval ones are not tied up in Iraq or Afghanistan.

 

[compuwiz1]

I believe we could fight a war "mechanically", but if troops are needed, we'd have to implement a new draft.

 

[Oceandevi]

Originally posted by: compuwiz1
I believe we could fight a war "mechanically", but if troops are needed, we'd have to implement a new draft.

Nonsense!
Japan has the most advanced robotics on the planet! They will deploy the mech walkers and destroy all nme's!

robots in disguise!

 

[Narmer]

Originally posted by: Aegeon

Originally posted by: Narmer
Right now we are fighting two wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Can we fight another one if China miscalculates with Taiwan?

If something was to go drastically wrong in that region, can we fight? Can we rally the world to come to the aid of the Japanese (who slaughtered millions of Asians in WWII)? Can we defend Taiwan, which is in an ambigious state? Will we need a draft? Will there be a draft? Will Americans die for Japanese or Taiwanese?

Uh, first of all, Japan would be completely able to defend itself without any help. (The only exception would be if we're talking about China attacking them and going nuclear, and its not like our nuclear weapons are tied up in Iraq and Afghanistan.) A strong argument can be made that Japan has the second most powerful navy in the world when in a defensive role. At most the US could give some airpower and naval support to make things even more decisive. North Korea's Navy and Air Force could not even effectively pose much of a threat of Japan.

With regards to defending Taiwan, the reality is right now Taiwan could stop China from a direct invasion without the US intervening at all, at least in any situation where China is worried about the US intervening if they take too much time. Two key facts are that Taiwan proper is a significant distance from the Chinese mainland, and Taiwan can mobilize over 1.5 million troops if attacked. This means all that needs to be done to prevent China from winning is prevent China from being able to transport too many troops into Taiwan too rapidly. China doesn't remotely have close to enough amphibious capability to pull this off right now. Even in the reasonably near future, all the US will need to do is dedicated airpower and naval units in order to ensure a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would fail. Most of the US Air Force units relevant to such a scenario, and virtually all of the naval ones are not tied up in Iraq or Afghanistan.

With regards to Japan, the proximity to North Korea is so small that North will be able to lodge a bunch of missiles at them, right? I'm sure a drawn out war with Japan and America will be catastrophic for the North Koreans, but you can't defend forever, you eventually have to go on the offensive, and that's the crux of my argument. When we do go on the offensive, is it possible (politically and numberwise) for us to defeat the North Koreans on North Korean soil? Will the South join in? Will China join in?

 

[CycloWizard]

I have little doubt that we could fight a 'defensive' war against anyone and win, even with our current commitments. The problem would arise if we tried to stick around and clean up after the fact.

 

[Legend]

Originally posted by: Narmer
Right now we are fighting two wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Can we fight another one if China miscalculates with Taiwan? How about with North Korea? When I was in Japan last month, the North Koreans kidnapped yet another Japanese (guy in his early to middle fifties) while he was walking on the beach. The Japanese are very frustrated by this because they are limited by their constitution, written by MacArthur.

If something was to go drastically wrong in that region, can we fight? Can we rally the world to come to the aid of the Japanese (who slaughtered millions of Asians in WWII)? Can we defend Taiwan, which is in an ambigious state? Will we need a draft? Will there be a draft? Will Americans die for Japanese or Taiwanese?

Depends on the type of war. If the war consists of blockading the coast with our navy, and using our superior flight tech to bomb everything until they surrender, then we'd win. Just targeting the Three Gorges Dam would cause a ton of problems for China.

 

[Aegeon]

Originally posted by: Narmer
With regards to Japan, the proximity to North Korea is so small that North will be able to lodge a bunch of missiles at them, right? I'm sure a drawn out war with Japan and America will be catastrophic for the North Koreans, but you can't defend forever, you eventually have to go on the offensive, and that's the crux of my argument. When we do go on the offensive, is it possible (politically and numberwise) for us to defeat the North Koreans on North Korean soil? Will the South join in? Will China join in?

Frankly the evidence is that North Korea does not have all that many missiles in the grand scheme of things. They could do some damage, but it would remain limited with conventional weapons. There is enough distance between Japan and North Korea that North Korea's shortest ranged missiles can't hit Japan.

Japan would be quite capable of launching air strikes to take out a large portion of the missiles North Korea could launch at them. Japan's Air Force includes around 213 F-15s and at least around 80 F-2s (a Japanese larger variant of the F-16 with more range.) Both of these aircraft have aerial refueling capability, and Japan's first tanker, a modified 767, is going to be delivered to Japan this month. The US could contributed with additional air support and naval support as well without difficulty. As long as so many US troops are tied up in Iraq and Afghanistan, I would expect the US and Japan to stick with a naval blockade and bombing campaign until North Korea seeks peace. (North Korea would run out of sufficiently long ranged missiles and any real way to hurt Japan relatively quickly.)

 

[ntdz]

Originally posted by: compuwiz1
I believe we could fight a war "mechanically", but if troops are needed, we'd have to implement a new draft.

Exactly. We COULD do it with a draft, but hell, we'd probably require a draft if we went to war with China and we weren't in Iraq and Afghanistan.

 

[pauldovi]

The United States can deploy enough force via the Air Force and Navy to keep and Chinese and North Korean aggressions at bay. The current US military doctrine would fail with a draft. There will not be an US military draft without a change in doctrine. And the current doctrine works quite well. The constant and powerful bombardment from US Air Force B-2's, B-1's, F-117's, B-52's, F/A-22's, and whatever we don't know about couple with the fleet off Tomahawks would be devastating to the Chinese and NK military.

 

[Narmer]

Originally posted by: Aegeon

Originally posted by: Narmer
With regards to Japan, the proximity to North Korea is so small that North will be able to lodge a bunch of missiles at them, right? I'm sure a drawn out war with Japan and America will be catastrophic for the North Koreans, but you can't defend forever, you eventually have to go on the offensive, and that's the crux of my argument. When we do go on the offensive, is it possible (politically and numberwise) for us to defeat the North Koreans on North Korean soil? Will the South join in? Will China join in?

Frankly the evidence is that North Korea does not have all that many missiles in the grand scheme of things. They could do some damage, but it would remain limited with conventional weapons. There is enough distance between Japan and North Korea that North Korea's shortest ranged missiles can't hit Japan.

Japan would be quite capable of launching air strikes to take out a large portion of the missiles North Korea could launch at them. Japan's Air Force includes around 213 F-15s and at least around 80 F-2s (a Japanese larger variant of the F-16 with more range.) Both of these aircraft have aerial refueling capability, and Japan's first tanker, a modified 767, is going to be delivered to Japan this month. The US could contributed with additional air support and naval support as well without difficulty. As long as so many US troops are tied up in Iraq and Afghanistan, I would expect the US and Japan to stick with a naval blockade and bombing campaign until North Korea seeks peace. (North Korea would run out of sufficiently long ranged missiles and any real way to hurt Japan relatively quickly.)

I guess you're right. Furthermore, seeing that they started the Korean War and their constant kidnapping of Japanese citizens, the world would have no sympathy for a country who acts in such a belligerant manner. IF they want to survive as a regime, as you say, they'll probably stick with conventional weapons. However, if they start firing nuclear weapons, then that should be the end of them. Even so, nukes could do serious damage; enough to rally the world.

 

[Aimster]

The Chinese air force cannot be destroyed overnight. The only way to destroy China's air force is to go one vs one. Aircraft vs Aircraft.

Cruise missiles and bombing of military bases is not going to happen. China's air defense systems are great.

 

[Narmer]

Originally posted by: Aimster
The Chinese air force cannot be destroyed overnight. The only way to destroy China's air force is to go one vs one. Aircraft vs Aircraft.

Cruise missiles and bombing of military bases is not going to happen. China's air defense systems are great.

With China, they would probably warn us to stay out of the fight, since it is a civil conflict. But if that was the case, as acknowledged by every American President since Nixon, why do we have a law saying that Taiwanese protection is our responsibility? Will we just look the other way and hope it isn't too bloody?

Even if we fought them, it would be over Taiwan, unless we wanted to start a nuclear holocaust in that region. Therefore, we would never bomb China proper.

 

[K1052]

Originally posted by: Aimster
The Chinese air force cannot be destroyed overnight. The only way to destroy China's air force is to go one vs one. Aircraft vs Aircraft.

Cruise missiles and bombing of military bases is not going to happen. China's air defense systems are great.

It wouldn't likely be a major airwar unless the Chinese decide to come across the Sea of Japan and tangle with the US and Japanese air forces which combined with sea assets would take the Chinese apart.

Any war is likely to be mostly naval in nature and the Chinese don't stand a chance in hell against the USN. A few of their subs might get lucky but their forces would be reduced very swiftly.

A few of the Ohio class SSGN conversions unleashing 154 Tomahawks each without warning would likely overwhelm Chinese air defenses.

 

[Aegeon]

Originally posted by: Aimster
Cruise missiles and bombing of military bases is not going to happen. China's air defense systems are great.

A major correction on this one. Once the US gets going, B-52s can be escorted into range to launch cruise missiles at Chinese targets without being seriously exposed themselves. Furthermore a large amount of tomahawk cruise missiles can be launched from US submarines. This in includes the USS Ohio, which is a converted ballistic missile submarine now capable of launching 154 tomahawk cruise missiles at targets on its own. If we're talking about a Chinese invasion of Taiwan most of the relevant military targets are near the coast anyways.

The ability of China's air defenses to shoot down cruise missiles remains quite limited.

 

[Narmer]

Originally posted by: Aegeon

Originally posted by: Aimster
Cruise missiles and bombing of military bases is not going to happen. China's air defense systems are great.

A major correction on this one. Once the US gets going, B-52s can be escorted into range to launch cruise missiles at Chinese targets without being seriously exposed themselves. Furthermore a large amount of tomahawk cruise missiles can be launched from US submarines. This in includes the USS Ohio, which is a converted ballistic missile submarine now capable of launching 154 tomahawk cruise missiles at targets on its own. If we're talking about a Chinese invasion of Taiwan most of the relevant military targets are near the coast anyways.

The ability of China's air defenses to shoot down cruise missiles remains quite limited.

But if we attack China proper, they will attack the United States of America and Japan. Maybe with nuclear weapons.

 

[Aegeon]

Originally posted by: Narmer
But if we attack China proper, they will attack the United States of America and Japan. Maybe with nuclear weapons.

Not if we're still talking about a limited conflict involving Taiwan, or Japan where its clear China isn't actually losing territory or being occupied if they lose. In a nuclear exchange China can do damage to the US, but the US is quite capable of completely destroying China if the US chooses to do so with its nuclear arsenal. China's leaders won't court death and a nation of dead people over a war with limited stakes.

China actually utterly lacks any realistic way to attack the US conventionally, at least in a remotely effective manner. At most they could fire some longer ranged conventional missiles and do limited damage to Guam. While China could cause damage to Japan in a war with them, (you would expect them to do be doing this even before the US bombs military targets in China) they can still only do so much damage with them, especially if the US and Japan are targeting the missile launch sites. The reality is China would fail miserably with any attempts to attack Japan with its Air Force. A large portion of China's older model planes lack the range to even reach Japan (at least if this isn't planned as a one way trip.) Those that can make it would actually be outnumbered by the combined Japan and US Air Forces they would realistically face and it would be almost impossible for any to reach Japanese ground targets before being shot down.

 

[ntdz]

Originally posted by: Narmer

Originally posted by: Aegeon

Originally posted by: Aimster
Cruise missiles and bombing of military bases is not going to happen. China's air defense systems are great.

A major correction on this one. Once the US gets going, B-52s can be escorted into range to launch cruise missiles at Chinese targets without being seriously exposed themselves. Furthermore a large amount of tomahawk cruise missiles can be launched from US submarines. This in includes the USS Ohio, which is a converted ballistic missile submarine now capable of launching 154 tomahawk cruise missiles at targets on its own. If we're talking about a Chinese invasion of Taiwan most of the relevant military targets are near the coast anyways.

The ability of China's air defenses to shoot down cruise missiles remains quite limited.

But if we attack China proper, they will attack the United States of America and Japan. Maybe with nuclear weapons.

They wouldn't use nukes, they aren't that stupid. They know the consequences of this, possibly the end of the world. Their only means of attacking the US is with ballistic missiles, which hold nuclear warheads. They don't have the ability to attack the US conventionally.

 

[Narmer]

Originally posted by: Aegeon

Originally posted by: Narmer
But if we attack China proper, they will attack the United States of America and Japan. Maybe with nuclear weapons.

Not if we're still talking about a limited conflict involving Taiwan, or Japan where its clear China isn't actually losing territory or being occupied if they lose. In a nuclear exchange China can do damage to the US, but the US is quite capable of completely destroying China if the US chooses to do so with its nuclear arsenal. China's leaders won't court death and a nation of dead people over a war with limited stakes.

China actually utterly lacks any realistic way to attack the US conventionally, at least in a remotely effective manner. At most they could fire some longer ranged conventional missiles and do limited damage to Guam. While China could cause damage to Japan in a war with them, (you would expect them to do be doing this even before the US bombs military targets in China) they can still only do so much damage with them, especially if the US and Japan are targeting the missile launch sites. The reality is China would fail miserably with any attempts to attack Japan with its Air Force. A large portion of China's older model planes lack the range to even reach Japan (at least if this isn't planned as a one way trip.) Those that can make it would actually be outnumbered by the combined Japan and US Air Forces they would realistically face and it would be almost impossible for any to reach Japanese ground targets before being shot down.

But if we attack their missile sites and/or cities, they may be/feel overwhelmed and either call off the conflict or go for broke and lauch an all out bombardment of Japan and or Taiwan. Is it even possible to contain them without striking at their cities. Can we just fight them in the waters, the air or in Taiwan itself?

 

[piasabird]

Not since bonehead politicians downsized the Armed Forces!

We spend less than 5% of our budget on Defense. We spend so little we can no longer be a real player as a super-power.

Leaner Meaner stupider.

 

[Aegeon]

Originally posted by: Narmer
But if we attack their missile sites and/or cities, they may be/feel overwhelmed and either call off the conflict or go for broke and lauch an all out bombardment of Japan and or Taiwan. Is it even possible to contain them without striking at their cities. Can we just fight them in the waters, the air or in Taiwan itself?

I would expect them to launch an all out conventional missile bombardment from the start against Taiwan. Its really the only way they have a hope of successfully invading Taiwan anytime soon. If Taiwan's Air Force and SAM network is completely functional China will have one heck of a time wearing it down, they need the missile bombardment to at least impair it. (Among other things China needs to eliminate a substantial chunk of Taiwan's mobile land based anti-ship missile launchers to avoid the invasion armada getting slaughtered, and this is not doable until the air defenses are dealt with first.)

Regardless, if the US limits its cruise missile attacks to military targets, this is a situation China should anticipate occurring in the first place. While China might not be happy about how things are going militarily, its profoundly unlikely they will do anything rash in response to make things worse.

 

[AgentJean]

Originally posted by: Oceandevi

Originally posted by: compuwiz1
I believe we could fight a war "mechanically", but if troops are needed, we'd have to implement a new draft.

Nonsense!
Japan has the most advanced robotics on the planet! They will deploy the mech walkers and destroy all nme's!

robots in disguise!

For a pacifist nation Japan spends a lot more money than England in defense. It would not surpirse me of the Japanese has a secret base under Tokyo or Kyoto with an army of mech just waiting to be deployed. . If that day ever happens. I'm moving to Japan.

 

[sunzt]

China can use its economic leverage over the US to call back lots of loans and to greatly screw up the US economy. This will directly screw with the lives of the majority of US citizens, especially the middle class who rely on cheap Chinese goods to afford their lifestyle. This effect will last much longer than the military consequences of a war with China.

 

[Schadenfroh]

Originally posted by: AgentJean

Originally posted by: Oceandevi

Originally posted by: compuwiz1
I believe we could fight a war "mechanically", but if troops are needed, we'd have to implement a new draft.

Nonsense!
Japan has the most advanced robotics on the planet! They will deploy the mech walkers and destroy all nme's!

robots in disguise!

For a pacifist nation Japan spends a lot more money than England in defense. It would not surprise me of the Japanese has a secret base under Tokyo or Kyoto with an army of mech just waiting to be deployed. . If that day ever happens. I'm moving to Japan.

So that is where all that Japanese labor is going, I was curious as to why there was no more made in Japan items

Originally posted by: sunzt
China can use its economic leverage over the US to call back lots of loans and to greatly screw up the US economy. This will directly screw with the lives of the majority of US citizens, especially the middle class who rely on cheap Chinese goods to afford their lifestyle. This effect will last much longer than the military consequences of a war with China.

US would probably not pay back China if she is openly attacking South Korea, Japan or Taiwan.

 

[K1052]

Originally posted by: sunzt
China can use its economic leverage over the US to call back lots of loans and to greatly screw up the US economy. This will directly screw with the lives of the majority of US citizens, especially the middle class who rely on cheap Chinese goods to afford their lifestyle. This effect will last much longer than the military consequences of a war with China.

The debt isn't callable, all China can do is stop buying it and try to sell what they have. They could possibly hurt us economically in the short term but many other developing nations would be more than happy to have our business.