can a 22nm tri-gate atom compete with arm cpu of same time?

[rob4eiwt]

http://www.anandtech.com/show/4333/intels-silvermont-a-new-atom-architecture

If intel stays on schedule and releases 22nm atom in 2013, how will that compare to an arm cpu of same timeframe?

To work in a cell phone a cpu needs to stay under 1 watt, and even more important is idle power consumption. If we project out, is it fair to say that the 22nm atom will likely be 2 cores and out-of-order while staying in same power envelope as arm?

On the arm side, 2012 will likely see 32nm quad core arm cpu's and in 2013 it'll be out-of-order quad core?

The common understanding i read around internet is how arm is lower power consumption but weaker performance compared to x86. But then i see a video like this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W4W6lVQl3QA

Both cpu's are very similar to me. Yes x86 is faster, but it's not a huge leap like i thought it would be.

What do you think, can intel compete against arm in cell phones?

 

[Idontcare]

Compete in terms of performance or cost?

2013 will see the markets inundated with 28nm HKMG-based ARM designs. These won't be slouches by any measure.

So how much of a performance advantage will Intel's 22nm tri-gate enabled Atom have over 28nm HKMG-based ARM? They might be at parity, just maybe, depends on how much of a juiced-up microarchitecture Intel has planned for Atom 2.0

But more relevant to Intel is can they sell them at an ASP that generates 50% gross margins or better? If they can't then they won't pursue it. Or more to the point they will limit the markets they do pursue with 22nm Atoms to those markets where the performance of the product can command an ASP that enables a 50% gross margin.

The mobile market is a thorny market to head into if you want >50% gross margins. Intel doesn't have to pay a premium for the wafers though, everyone else has to pay TSMC a premium because TSMC wants to make profit.

Intel doesn't need to pay themselves this profit premium for their fabs, they just need the whole vertically integrated product line to turn out 50% gross margins. So it just may well work out for them. It has in SSD's. Maybe ARM has something to be concerned about come 2013. I personally don't think its a foregone conclusion though. (and obviously this is all just my opinion and conjecture, no insider-based angle or info to substantiate anything I'm saying here)

 

[Voo]

Well Intel so far has treated Atom as the unloved stepchild (old process tech, old architecture - eg reusing the FSB interconnect for an integrated solution must be about the laziest thing one can do). And although that seems to be changing, I still don't see Atom's positioned for the smartphone market. More cheap notebooks, maybe tablets and quite possibly servers since several companies seem to be interested in those.

As IDC says - the mobile market is full of competitors and minimal margins, that's hardly the market Intel would want to target. They're much more interested in keeping ARM out of their markets, but why fight with the rest of the industry for a few scraps? After all the amount of money generated per R&D dollar has followed pretty much one trend: Steadily downwards.