California to stop allowing new internal combustion light vehicles in 2035

[ondma]

do you not grocery shop?

Moot right now because I dont have an electric car, but I really dont care to have my shopping dictated by when I need to charge my car. On top of that, availability of enough (if any) charging stations will probably be an issue as electric cars become more common.

 

[GodisanAtheist]

The charging at home element is huge. If I could gas up my car overnight I would virtually never stop at a gas station. Same story with electric vehicles.

If EVs end up being the thing that replaces ICE (instead of a proton pack or fusion or whatever) that I figure we'll have to switch over to hotswap battery tech (think propane tanks) where you plug your battery into a charging terminal and grab another fully charged battery plug in and go. Someone else then comes in and grabs "your" battery after it has charged up.

When you're at home, plug in.

 

[ElFenix]

The absolute last place I shop for groceries is Wal-Wart. The meat, produce, anything fresh there sux. Plus you have to deal with having 1 maybe 2 checkouts open if they are busy, 3 if they are slammed, and the rest of the dregs of society that Wal-Wart attracts. Of course plenty of time to charge your ride, if the rednecks ain't parked in the way.

so i'm going to put you down as a 'yes'

 

[WelshBloke]

I'm seeing lots of "this is impossible", "nuh huh but be got rid of the horse and cart", kind of arguments here.
Has anyone worked out any numbers?
How many cars are in CA?
How many of those cars will need to be charged on an evening when people return from work?
How much extra power from the grid will that require and how much excess is available?
Are there plans for generating that extra power and distribution from power stations to local levels then from there to the household?

Theres a shit ton more to this than "but Walmart can just put a couple of extra chargers in the carpark"!
We all know that setting a political deadline means that nothing really gets done until that deadline is nearly up then all that gets done is people running around spending a lot of energy blaming everyone else about why the thing didn't happen, then the deadline gets moved or scrapped.


Yeah, we absolutely need to get off fossil fuels but personally I don't see just changing to one other system is going to work.
Maybe electric for local urban transport where journeys are short and there's always a charger nearby and hydrogen based fuel cells for long journeys that need quick refuelling on the way.
That with a push for much better public transport.

 

[pmv]

Do they even have the infrastructure in the cities to support so many electric vehicles? Where do you charge your car if you live in a 20 unit apartment building?

Judging from my block of flats, you drape a very long power lead out of your 3rd-floor window to your vehicle in the car-park below.

I see the occasional 'charging point' in the streets now, but the infrastructure issues do seem more challenging than is being acknowledged. And it won't solve congestion, and it may make RTA deaths worse (because you can't hear the things coming). I'd rather just see fewer private cars of any kind.

 

[pmv]

The most common 'electric vehicles' I see are annoying youths using those motorised scooters or skateboards - and they mostly seem to ride them on the footway. As annoying as they are when you are a pedestrian, I'm not 100% against them because those selfish/reckless kids would be far more annoying - and dangerous - if they were using a car or a moped

 

[WelshBloke]

The most common 'electric vehicles' I see are annoying youths using those motorised scooters or skateboards - and they mostly seem to ride them on the footway. As annoying as they are when you are a pedestrian, I'm not 100% against them because those selfish/reckless kids would be far more annoying - and dangerous - if they were using a car or a moped

Its older middle aged people on ebikes around here!

 

[ultimatebob]

I'm seeing lots of "this is impossible", "nuh huh but be got rid of the horse and cart", kind of arguments here.
Has anyone worked out any numbers?
How many cars are in CA?
How many of those cars will need to be charged on an evening when people return from work?
How much extra power from the grid will that require and how much excess is available?
Are there plans for generating that extra power and distribution from power stations to local levels then from there to the household?

Theres a shit ton more to this than "but Walmart can just put a couple of extra chargers in the carpark"!
We all know that setting a political deadline means that nothing really gets done until that deadline is nearly up then all that gets done is people running around spending a lot of energy blaming everyone else about why the thing didn't happen, then the deadline gets moved or scrapped.


Yeah, we absolutely need to get off fossil fuels but personally I don't see just changing to one other system is going to work.
Maybe electric for local urban transport where journeys are short and there's always a charger nearby and hydrogen based fuel cells for long journeys that need quick refuelling on the way.
That with a push for much better public transport.

Yeah, I think that there are a total of 10 public car chargers within 5 mile radius of me, and I live in a progressive state that's provided public funding to build some of those. That's enough chargers for the 2% share of electric vehicles currently on the road, but we're going to be in a world of hurt when these things gain mass market adoption. It will happen someday, just not as quickly as a lot of people here think that it will.

 

[pmv]

Its older middle aged people on ebikes around here!

I would assume that's because of the very different age profile of Wales and London. There's an ecological niche for 'annoying anti social people', and if there aren't enough young folk to fill it, the elders have to step up and do their bit.

 

[WelshBloke]

I would assume that's because of the very different age profile of Wales and London. There's an ecological niche for 'annoying anti social people', and if there aren't enough young folk to fill it, the elders have to step up and do their bit.

I am in rural Norfolk, which is a bit like rural Wales except with pigs and cider rather than sheep and beer.

 

[sdifox]

I am in rural Norfolk, which is a bit like rural Wales except with pigs and cider rather than sheep and beer.

So, plug your car into the sheep?

 

[WelshBloke]

So, plug your car into the sheep?

No.
The pigs!
Im in Norfolk now. Keep up!

 

[sdifox]

No.
The pigs!
Im in Norfolk now. Keep up!

Pretty sure Welsh are into plugging sheeps

 

[brycejones]

Yeah, I think that there are a total of 10 public car chargers within 5 mile radius of me, and I live in a progressive state that's provided public funding to build some of those. That's enough chargers for the 2% share of electric vehicles currently on the road, but we're going to be in a world of hurt when these things gain mass market adoption. It will happen someday, just not as quickly as a lot of people here think that it will.

Because no other chargers will be built as the number of cars increases? Btw BEV market share in CA is already north of 4%.

 

[K1052]

Because no other chargers will be built as the number of cars increases? Btw BEV market share in CA is already north of 4%.

Most people are going to charge at home anyway because most people in the US (200M I think) live in detached housing. Public charging will be supplementary.

 

[WelshBloke]

Pretty sure Welsh are into plugging sheeps

Not into cars though. That would be weird.

 

[darkswordsman17]

True, gasoline is a "just is in the 'just in time' supply chain" and anything that interrupt that or ups the demand will cause shortages. A hurricane hitting Texas causes ripple shortages as far as the northeast because refineries shut down, thus pipelines, thus supply.

So lets assume that the power grid can sustain every single EV being charged at the same time, and they strike out for a safe place. Average EV goes 200+ miles, then needs at least 30 minutes to charge to 80% if they can find a Level 3 charger, otherwise longer.

This is one of those "what if's" as you seem to want to blow it off as, that keep people in emergency management and public safety up at night.

Do you have a lot of hurricanes on your mountain? Or is that why you're a mountain man, you're so fucking scared of storms that are what ifs that you'll shit your pants over what ifs about electric cars?

And what if oil poisons your land? What then? What if your mountain gets leveled for coal? What if forest fire comes along and blows up your natural gas house? Or one of your neighbors decides to annihilate their family and blows it up by letting it fill with gas and it blows up your house? What if a tornado sucks up your gasoline and catches fire? What if the world was made of pudding?

Bull fucking shit. They're concerned with the actual hurricane and overall public safety, not people with electric cars

 

[ondma]

Most people are going to charge at home anyway because most people in the US (200M I think) live in detached housing. Public charging will be supplementary.

That includes a lot of rural areas and smaller towns though. In densely populated metro areas, I would think there would be a bigger percentage in apartments/townhouses.

Edit: just looked it up, as of 2015, 60% of the population of Los Angeles are renters. Of course some of those will still be single family homes, but a lot of apartments too.

 

[zinfamous]

That includes a lot of rural areas and smaller towns though. In densely populated metro areas, I would think there would be a bigger percentage in apartments/townhouses.

Edit: just looked it up, as of 2015, 60% of the population of Los Angeles are renters. Of course some of those will still be single family homes, but a lot of apartments too.

I don't think renters vs owners is much of a real distinction in this argument. Landlords still own those houses and still want people to live in them. I would think that in less than 5 years, the idea of installing a personal charger will be no less an assumed requirement for available appliances in a house as a fridge or water heater. It's not like it's really that much of an expense for a landlord, which would cost about 1-2 months profit on rent. ...and I mean, you're specifically talking about CA here. It's already such a low threshold to install these things without incentive, and now you have pretty clear, direct need to do it.

Really, absolutely no big deal. If an LA landlord wants to rent their houses out in the next 5 years, and certainly within ~15 years, it would be considered hilariously stupid not to install a charger and really more just irresponsible than anything.


Consider this: from a world perspective, it's already kinda "weird" that renting a house or apartment includes the assumed use of appliances. In pretty much all of Europe, the individual owns those, and takes them with them. That's sort of the first week of a new rental: either go out and buy your own appliances, or arrange getting them moved from previous place to the new place. ...and it's the same with buying. Hell, even with the kitchen, it's not uncommon in some countries to expect all of that to be torn out on a purchase and completely bare when you move in.

Point being: those of us in the US have a lot of unreasonable (or maybe just uninformed) expectations in certain ways when it comes to renting/owning/living. That's fine and all, but what's really strange is to assume that expectations can and will remain stagnant over a generation's time...especially with the type of exponential advancement in technology that those of us alive today have actually experienced over the last 40-50 years.

 

[ultimatebob]

I don't think renters vs owners is much of a real distinction in this argument. Landlords still own those houses and still want people to live in them. I would think that in less than 5 years, the idea of installing a personal charger will be no less an assumed requirement for available appliances in a house as a fridge or water heater. It's not like it's really that much of an expense for a landlord, which would cost about 1-2 months profit on rent. ...and I mean, you're specifically talking about CA here. It's already such a low threshold to install these things without incentive, and now you have pretty clear, direct need to do it.

Really, absolutely no big deal. If an LA landlord wants to rent their houses out in the next 5 years, and certainly within ~15 years, it would be considered hilariously stupid not to install a charger and really more just irresponsible than anything.


Consider this: from a world perspective, it's already kinda "weird" that renting a house or apartment includes the assumed use of appliances. In pretty much all of Europe, the individual owns those, and takes them with them. That's sort of the first week of a new rental: either go out and buy your own appliances, or arrange getting them moved from previous place to the new place. ...and it's the same with buying. Hell, even with the kitchen, it's not uncommon in some countries to expect all of that to be torn out on a purchase and completely bare when you move in.

Point being: those of us in the US have a lot of unreasonable (or maybe just uninformed) expectations in certain ways when it comes to renting/owning/living. That's fine and all, but what's really strange is to assume that expectations can and will remain stagnant over a generation's time...especially with the type of exponential advancement in technology that those of us alive today have actually experienced over the last 40-50 years.

You have more faith in landlords than I do! The ones that I've dealt with in the past didn't even want to install central air or electric garage doors in their rental homes, even though most houses in the area have had those since the 1990's.

I probably would have caught the house on fire if I tried to plug an electric car into one of their 1960's era electrical systems. I could trip the breaker if I tried to use the toaster oven and microwave at the same time in a few of them.

 

[ondma]

I don't think renters vs owners is much of a real distinction in this argument. Landlords still own those houses and still want people to live in them. I would think that in less than 5 years, the idea of installing a personal charger will be no less an assumed requirement for available appliances in a house as a fridge or water heater. It's not like it's really that much of an expense for a landlord, which would cost about 1-2 months profit on rent. ...and I mean, you're specifically talking about CA here. It's already such a low threshold to install these things without incentive, and now you have pretty clear, direct need to do it.

Really, absolutely no big deal. If an LA landlord wants to rent their houses out in the next 5 years, and certainly within ~15 years, it would be considered hilariously stupid not to install a charger and really more just irresponsible than anything.


Consider this: from a world perspective, it's already kinda "weird" that renting a house or apartment includes the assumed use of appliances. In pretty much all of Europe, the individual owns those, and takes them with them. That's sort of the first week of a new rental: either go out and buy your own appliances, or arrange getting them moved from previous place to the new place. ...and it's the same with buying. Hell, even with the kitchen, it's not uncommon in some countries to expect all of that to be torn out on a purchase and completely bare when you move in.

Point being: those of us in the US have a lot of unreasonable (or maybe just uninformed) expectations in certain ways when it comes to renting/owning/living. That's fine and all, but what's really strange is to assume that expectations can and will remain stagnant over a generation's time...especially with the type of exponential advancement in technology that those of us alive today have actually experienced over the last 40-50 years.

I was thinking more about apartments, where the housing density is high and you have multiple floors.

 

[pmv]

I am in rural Norfolk, which is a bit like rural Wales except with pigs and cider rather than sheep and beer.

Norfolk - like Suffolk except they give you a trial before they burn you as a witch for having a smartphone.

 

[ponyo]

I can tell only few watched Tesla Battery Day presentation. So many ignorant people here it's mind boggling.

By 2035, electric vehicles will be much cheaper than comparable ICE vehicles. Economies of scale. If you want new ICE in 2035, it's going to cost you. But most rational people will not choose ICE over electric because electric cars will be so much better and cheaper than ICE cars in 2035.

Electric infrastructure will be built as sales of electric cars start to overtake ICE cars. It's inevitable. Landlords will install chargers or risk losing tenants to properties that have it. Residential homes will have solar along with battery storage to power their homes and cars. It's going to happen.

As for battery recycling, people have thought about the problem and new companies are being built to tackle and profit from it. JB Straubel's Redwood Materials is one such company. It's going to be big business. For people who don't know who JB Straubel is, he was one of the founders of Tesla and was chief technology officer of Tesla until 2019 when he left Tesla to concentrate on building his Redwood Materials startup.

https://electrek.co/2020/08/31/tesl...p-redwood-recycling-scrap-gigafactory-nevada/

 

[WelshBloke]

By 2035, electric vehicles will be much cheaper than comparable ICE vehicles. Economies of scale.

I'm not sure that's true. Tesla is selling every vehicle it makes, its getting a subsidy, its selling carbon credits and its cars are still way more expensive than the equivalent ICE.
I'm fine with there being a price to move away from petroleum but we need to be honest and realistic about it.

 

[ponyo]

I'm not sure that's true. Tesla is selling every vehicle it makes, its getting a subsidy, its selling carbon credits and its cars are still way more expensive than the equivalent ICE.
I'm fine with there being a price to move away from petroleum but we need to be honest and realistic about it.

Did you watch Tesla Battery Day presentation I linked above? Prepare to be blown away in couple of years when Tesla incorporates their new battery technology in their auto lineup. In 3-4 years, you should also see the new $25k Tesla car that's going to be the best in class and dominate the Honda Accord and Toyota Camry of the world. I 100% agree with Dave in this video that Elon and Tesla are sandbagging Battery Day improvements timeline. Just as the legacy automakers are finally bring out their EV cars, Tesla is going to blow people away with their updated and new cars made with Battery Day technologies. I'm so freaking excited about the future.

Elon and Tesla are playing 4D chess while you guys are looking at everything in 2D and can't even see 3D let alone 4D future.