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Buying a used Nissan Leaf - logic

M

Mide

Golden Member
So let me know if I'm missing anything there.

Used leafs are going for around 13.5-14.5k in my area. Many of them have under 30k and still have 12 bars. I commute only 20 miles or so it seems ideal for an "around town" type of car. The only things that sometimes need maintenance are brakes, brake fluid, tires, and both batteries. If the main battery ever takes a crap it will cost 5.5k to get back up to 12 bars, new. Besides being locked down to an 80 mile range, in a 5-10 year scenario don't these cars seem like pretty good buys when looking at TCO maintenance vs another econobox commuter?

The only other negative I can think of is wear/tear on engine or tranny. I haven't read anything about how much it would cost to replace the electric engine and I'm guessing the tranny is all built into the system as well. But assuming these 2 major components ran for a long time, wouldn't these electrics just keep on chugging away?
 
There is no transmission; it's a single "speed" so to speak. To me the only variables are trips over 80 miles and battery condition. Pretty much everything else should be superior to a normal car in terms of wear and tear.
 
When it comes to cars like the Nissan Leaf, you're looking at early gen electric only vehicles. It's too soon to tell but I would wager that the obsolescence factor on these vehicles is going to be pretty high quite quickly as car companies quickly ramp up to better electric vehicles because they're finally starting to figure it out. What I mean is right now we think "oh 80 miles on a electric only, that's pretty cool I could live with that". But in a few years the thought of going only 80 miles on a charge is going to sound absolutely ridiculous. In my opinion of course.

This doesn't take anything away from the current achievements of a car like the leaf. It can do 80 miles on a charge today, and in 5 years it will probably still be doing 80 miles per charge on the same batteries. However, the newest version of the leaf might be doing 280 miles which makes the 80 mile leaf totally obsolete and basically worthless on the market. Whereas if that same 14k was spent on something like a used 2013 focus with the 2 liter gas engine with 30k miles that car will still be rocking 35-40mpg with a decent life ahead of it and will probably be worth ~$9k 5 years from now.
 
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Yeah that's a good point. Same could be said about first gen SSDs and the 1TBs they have now. Yeah true true. I'll hold off and see how low the cars can depreciate.
 
It is not overly common for individuals to be able to afford two vehicles. Electric only vehicles only work as a second vehicle currently due to range (or more specifically range + charge time) issues.

If you are someone who truly can get by on never having much range on your only vehicle, or have a suitable second vehicle, then yes, an electric one is usually superior at prices like that from a cost to own and operate standpoint. That said, the price you are quoting seems anomalously low.

edit: I guess for something over 30k miles, the base model, and 2011 (the first year) that price is about right, but they increase quite a bit when you go something newer than 4 years. What's the life expectancy of the battery?
 
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Check the LEAF forums. If you are in an area with extreme high (Vegas, Phoenix, etc.) temps, the battery will degrade faster over time on older models. Also running the heat or AC in the winter and summer will net you more like a 60 mile range per charge.

The LEAF is a great car, and I think it would serve you well. The key with all electric cars is whether or not you can live with the limitations.
 
Indeed. I've already researched the Leaf and all its limitations to death. I don't live in AZ and I know how the range fluctuates with temperature. Less range in winter and super hot weather degrades battery.

Even though the car originally costs a lot, the original owners usually get a substantial tax incentive such that it makes the car cost around $20k if not lower. After that it depreciates like a rock but then it hits around 13-15k and doesn't budge much.
 
Test drove leaf and it was very nice.

Next gen Leaf is soon to be revealed - apparently they will double the range.

14K is still a good price for one if this fits your daily mileage.
 
I honestly do not think that obsolescence will be a factor. The main limiting technology is battery tech, and that's a slow-moving one. Any improvements in battery can be retrofitted to the car by way of firmware update + physically installing a new battery.

There've been a lot of low-price leafs out there I've seen...
 
desura said:
I honestly do not think that obsolescence will be a factor. The main limiting technology is battery tech, and that's a slow-moving one. Any improvements in battery can be retrofitted to the car by way of firmware update + physically installing a new battery.

There've been a lot of low-price leafs out there I've seen...
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Trouble is battery packs are a very significant fraction of the price of a new car. I can't imagine replacing packs is going to be economical on older cars.
 
Midwayman said:
Trouble is battery packs are a very significant fraction of the price of a new car. I can't imagine replacing packs is going to be economical on older cars.
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A replacement battery pack for the LEAF currently costs @$5500 ($6500 if you don't turn in the old one as a core). That is a lot cheaper in most cases than the cost of a replacement internal combustion engine (rebuilt with a warranty). It is also a lot less labor intensive to swap a battery pack vs removing and replacing an ICE.
 
Battery warranty is 8 years 100K, so a 1-2 year old leaf with 30K will still have a lot of life left under warranty.
 
Mide said:
it hits around 13-15k and doesn't budge much
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How can this conclusion be reached without data? There aren't any of these cars available that are more than 4 years old, so any claims of pricing not budging have no basis.
 
Word ^^ so far they've depreciated from MSRP down to 13k, wouldn't the trend indicate they might drop to $0 eventually? 🙂 I think they'll continue to fall as long as factory new electric cars are lease/selling at 200 /month and new models will continue to come out. The GM 200 mile car and the Tesla model 3 will push these ~100 mile cars down a lot I think.
 
tweakmonkey said:
Word ^^ so far they've depreciated from MSRP down to 13k, wouldn't the trend indicate they might drop to $0 eventually? 🙂 I think they'll continue to fall as long as factory new electric cars are lease/selling at 200 /month and new models will continue to come out. The GM 200 mile car and the Tesla model 3 will push these ~100 mile cars down a lot I think.
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A LEAF retails for @$30K, but there is a $7.5K federal tax incentive, and additional incentives in some states ($2.5K in CA for example). So technically a LEAF "retails" for @$20-22.5K. Most people lease, and the lease company takes the incentives which lowers the monthly payment to @$200.

Used LEAF prices are in line with Civic, Altima, Cruze, Malibu, Accord, Camry, etc. based on similar year, miles, and options.

EVs are a niche market, but they will never depreciate to "$0". A decently running car will always have value regardless of the propulsion system used.
 
Ferzerp said:
How can this conclusion be reached without data? There aren't any of these cars available that are more than 4 years old, so any claims of pricing not budging have no basis.
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Current market price is ballpark that range. Just wander around CL or Cars.com and you'll see. I never said that the price will never depreciate more, it's just that if you want to buy a leaf right now, that is the market price for a 2011 or 2012.
 
EVs are a niche market, but they will never depreciate to "$0". A decently running car will always have value regardless of the propulsion system used.
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And what about when the battery dies and it's not worth fixing? That could happen.

I know it won't drop to zero, just saying based on current trends you can't decide anything, the car is simply too new. Check in 10 years and I'm sure it'll be worth a lot less than $13,000 so that clearly isn't the floor. It's just where it is currently based on its age and competitive cars.
 
tweakmonkey said:
And what about when the battery dies and it's not worth fixing? That could happen.
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You are assuming that batteries will not be available. Which is frankly stupid.

The LEAF has a 8-year 100K warranty on the battery, and a 5-year 60K warranty on the battery losing capacity. A used LEAF (first sold in 2011) is factory warrantied through 2019. The car is still being sold, which means parts will need to be warrantied and available at least through 2023 (2015 + 8 years).

Looking back to the first hybrids sold in the US.....You can still get hybrid battery packs for cars built in 2001 (Prius 2001-2003 @$2200). That is 13+ years, and there is no indication that these parts will not continue to be produced.
 
No I'm not, I clearly wrote "and it's not worth fixing" -- for example a $5000 battery would make a $5000 Leaf not worth fixing, especially if the next generation cars go 200 miles.

I think the $13k Leaf is a good deal, and not a bad choice at all -- but to think it's fully depreciated at $13,000... well that is FRANKLY STUPID. It's on the decline and has been since it's new, it might stop at $13k but it might not. The evidence would indicate it's not stopping today or next month or year etc.
 
tweakmonkey said:
No I'm not, I clearly wrote "and it's not worth fixing" -- for example a $5000 battery would make a $5000 Leaf not worth fixing, especially if the next generation cars go 200 miles.
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All cars are "not worth fixing" at some point. Why are you making a special case for the LEAF?

There is also no evidence to support your claim that EVs with longer range will devalue the LEAF. 40mpg cars have not crashed the used market for cars that only get 25mpg.

tweakmonkey said:
I think the $13k Leaf is a good deal, and not a bad choice at all -- but to think it's fully depreciated at $13,000... well that is FRANKLY STUPID.
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I never said the car was done depreciating. I am not in the habit of making stupid claims (like replacement parts will not be available).

tweakmonkey said:
It's on the decline and has been since it's new, it might stop at $13k but it might not. The evidence would indicate it's not stopping today or next month or year etc.
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All cars continue to depreciate as time passew. So again I ask, why are you making a special case for the LEAF?
 
After that it depreciates like a rock but then it hits around 13-15k and doesn't budge much.ciate as time passew. So again I ask, why are you making a special case for the LEAF?
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My whole reply was to this text by OP:
"After that it depreciates like a rock but then it hits around 13-15k and doesn't budge much."

I don't agree with that statement. That's it.


ALSO
the leaf is nothing like gas mileage comparisons. Range != gas mileage. And the Leaf is unique in that it's the first mass produced electric car in 100 years or so. It'll have a very different resale value and structure. There's no historical comparison to any other car proving one way or another that the range of new cars won't be effecting the old cars. But don't you think if the next gen leaf comes out and goes 200 miles or some equivalent priced GM/Tesla goes 300 miles etc it'll push these 80 mile range cars into the gutter? Id bet on it. Look at used electric cars in need of batteries. If their range was 25-60 miles on a good battery and the replacement was $5k nobody would bother. The cars would get scrapped.
 
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MiataNC said:
A replacement battery pack for the LEAF currently costs @$5500 ($6500 if you don't turn in the old one as a core). That is a lot cheaper in most cases than the cost of a replacement internal combustion engine (rebuilt with a warranty). It is also a lot less labor intensive to swap a battery pack vs removing and replacing an ICE.
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Not disproving my point one bit. Significant fraction of the car price, especially used. When an electric comes out with a 300 mile battery for the same price new, your leaf just lost a lot of value. Even if the new packs become available for the leaf (and that's a big if) Who is going to want to put that much money into an old car?

If they came out with ICE cars that tripled mpg without giving up anything I'd expect all used models to suffer, and mpg isn't nearly the issue that range is with electrics.
 
Midwayman said:
Not disproving my point one bit. Significant fraction of the car price, especially used. When an electric comes out with a 300 mile battery for the same price new, your leaf just lost a lot of value. Even if the new packs become available for the leaf (and that's a big if) Who is going to want to put that much money into an old car?

If they came out with ICE cars that tripled mpg without giving up anything I'd expect all used models to suffer, and mpg isn't nearly the issue that range is with electrics.
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You haven't proven your point to begin with.

Having to replace an engine or transmission is ALWAYS a significant fraction of a used cars price. The LEAF will be no different than any other used car when it is 8+ years old (the limit of the factory battery warranty).

A 200-300 mile EV will cost significantly more than the current batch of 100 mile EVs. If they could stuff a 200+ mile battery into the current LEAF (or any other EV on the market) they would have already done it, because range is the #1 reason people still hold back from buying EVs. No one is going to be able to buy a 200-300 mile EV for the same MSRP as a current 100 mile EV anytime in the next 5 years.

When it comes to a possible upgrade...

People upgrade and pour ridiculous amounts of money into old cars every day. Bolting on turbos/superchargers/suspension/etc. There are plenty of EV owners that would jump at the chance to upgrade for longer range without incurring the cost/depreciation of a new car. Using todays numbers, a used LEAF for $13K+$10K for a 200 mile battery(assuming double the price of the current replacement battery) is still @$7-$10K less than the MSRP of a new 100 mile LEAF. In a few more years a sub $10K LEAF + upgraded battery pack will be an even better deal than buying new.

People buy used because they either don't want to pay the depreciation on a new car, or they can't afford the price of a new car. A 200-300 mile LEAF will not affect the prices of used 100 mile EVs. The used market will set it's own prices based on other used cars that offer similar bang for the buck.
 
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