Buying a house in Gainesville, FL.

[FrontlineWarrior]

I'm moving to Gainesville, Florida. Unlike the rest of the state, housing is still booming in Gainesville. But I'm concerned that even though "all real estate is local", the nationwide bubble is making all homes across the country overvalued. For example, houses that were $80,000 5 years ago are around $200,000 today.

House prices compared to rent aren't too bad in the area. From my limited understanding of the housing market, it seems that the housing prices here are reasonable. However if a house depreciates significantly I risk losing my equity (downpayment mostly) and worse.

Considering the bubble and forecasted "slow leak", is it likely that home values, after around 7 years, will be relatively steady? I don't need for it to appreciate a lot, and I'd be okay with even a 1-2% annual appreciation. What I don't want to face is losing 10-20%, which would effectively wipe out my down payment. So when economists predict a slow leak to the bubble, what are they talking about in terms of best/worst case scenario?

cliffs:
home prices up a lot lately but still seems reasonable
house is for me to live in, not for investment
mistake to buy now?
worse case scenario in housing bubble?

 

[ponyo]

I would check out foreclosed homes in your area. I would wait until lenders come to grip with reality of the market. I don't think we're quite there yet as lot of lenders are still asking for last year's prices.

 

[Rage187]

I'd wait for the current borrowers to get in trouble, whihc shouldn't be but another 3 months, then swoop in and get a great deal on a foreclosure.

 

[HannibalX]

Are you going to school? I can't see any other reason to move to Gainsville. There is much more work and opportunity in Central Florida.

 

[FrontlineWarrior]

I will be working there with a VERY stable job for the next 5-7 years.

Thanks for the ideas. My father advises I should rent there for about 6 months and go from there. Looks like that's prudent advice from what's been said so far...

 

[buck]

My brother in law got a great fixeruper a year or so back. I really like that area.

 

[GuitarDaddy]

Originally posted by: FrontlineWarrior
I will be working there with a VERY stable job for the next 5-7 years.

Thanks for the ideas. My father advises I should rent there for about 6 months and go from there. Looks like that's prudent advice from what's been said so far...

Thats the route I would take. The one thing thats pretty certain is home prices aren't going to go up for the immediate future, and it would also give you time to really investigate the area and find where you want to live. And would give you the ability to capitalize should a really sweet deal come along and you won't feel pressured to find something.