Bush ends executive ban on drilling...

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Duwelon

Golden Member
Nov 3, 2004
1,058
0
0
Originally posted by: JD50
Originally posted by: Engineer
Originally posted by: JD50
So what made the price of oil drop?

The fundamentals, as I've pointed out in this thread several times. Oil inventories came in at a 6 million barrel upside suprise and gasoline came in at 2.5 million barrels to the upside. Useage is down to a 5 year low with 3.5% less useage than last year (and has been less each month of this year than the same month last year, first time since 1991). The dollar has somewhat flatlined but still teetering either way.

Oil was already starting down on the above information about a week (or so) before. Iran tested the missles and it started back up, but once the missles firing stopped and there was talk of an embassy/negotiations with Iran, it started falling again. The talk of negotiations with Iran had far more effect on oil prices than the symbolic cancelling of a executive order on offshore drilling, that did nothing.

Iran testing missles, did nothing, talks of an embassy/negotions with Iran, did nothing. Yet you admit that it DID effect the price of oil. Plenty of people here have argued that Bush canceling the executive order on offshore drilling did nothing, therefore it couldn't have effected oil prices.

Obviously, just because something doesn't directly effect supply or demand, doesn't mean that it won't effect the price of oil.

His own speculation is exempt from his own rules.
 

charrison

Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
17,033
1
81
Originally posted by: Engineer
Originally posted by: JD50
So what made the price of oil drop?

The fundamentals, as I've pointed out in this thread several times. Oil inventories came in at a 6 million barrel upside suprise and gasoline came in at 2.5 million barrels to the upside. Useage is down to a 5 year low with 3.5% less useage than last year (and has been less each month of this year than the same month last year, first time since 1991). The dollar has somewhat flatlined but still teetering either way.

Oil was already starting down on the above information about a week (or so) before. Iran tested the missles and it started back up, but once the missles firing stopped and there was talk of an embassy/negotiations with Iran, it started falling again. The talk of negotiations with Iran had far more effect on oil prices than the symbolic cancelling of a executive order on offshore drilling, that did nothing.

Actually it is a bit more than symbolic. The congressional ban expires in September and congress will have to vote to reauthorize the ban. IF congress does nothing the ban goes away. I think congress is going to have a hard time voting to reauthorize the ban as long as gas is 4/gallon.

 

Stiganator

Platinum Member
Oct 14, 2001
2,489
0
76
.49 seems really low, unless Kentucky gets some crazy subsidies for gas? The best I can recall is .99, but maybe I was too young to remember.
 

Stiganator

Platinum Member
Oct 14, 2001
2,489
0
76
Originally posted by: Duwelon
I am so angry at congress right now. These incompentent, lying SOB's in congress, ALL Democrats, need to be voted out of office as soon as possible.

You want something to write about? Write to your favorite democrat congressman in the senate and house of representatives and tell them to get their priorities straight.

washington post

Well I wouldn't blame just Dems. IMO every member of congress is failing to do their appointed job and should be removed. I think off shore and ANWAR drilling is acceptable (not good, but most likely necessary) to help us over the transition to cleaner and renewable energies.
 

JD50

Lifer
Sep 4, 2005
11,750
2,335
126
Originally posted by: Stiganator
Originally posted by: Duwelon
I am so angry at congress right now. These incompentent, lying SOB's in congress, ALL Democrats, need to be voted out of office as soon as possible.

You want something to write about? Write to your favorite democrat congressman in the senate and house of representatives and tell them to get their priorities straight.

washington post

Well I wouldn't blame just Dems. IMO every member of congress is failing to do their appointed job and should be removed. I think off shore and ANWAR drilling is acceptable (not good, but most likely necessary) to help us over the transition to cleaner and renewable energies.

:thumbsup:
 

NeoV

Diamond Member
Apr 18, 2000
9,504
2
81
if anyone thinks the drop had anything to do with Bush's action...you really need a clue.

a few footnotes - 12 to 18 months? um no - we are already drilling in the gulf - this ban, or the lifting of this ban, isn't about the gulf waters that we are already drilling in - there is no way in hell that we could have a rig, or rigs, pulling oil out in anything under 3 years in one of the areas currently under the ban - and that's at a minimum.

Also - it was the first Bush president that made this 'ban' a permanent one, rather than it needing to be re-voted on every year.

 

JD50

Lifer
Sep 4, 2005
11,750
2,335
126
Originally posted by: NeoV
if anyone thinks the drop had anything to do with Bush's action...you really need a clue.

a few footnotes - 12 to 18 months? um no - we are already drilling in the gulf - this ban, or the lifting of this ban, isn't about the gulf waters that we are already drilling in - there is no way in hell that we could have a rig, or rigs, pulling oil out in anything under 3 years in one of the areas currently under the ban - and that's at a minimum.

Also - it was the first Bush president that made this 'ban' a permanent one, rather than it needing to be re-voted on every year.

What does any of that have to do with Bush's action possibly having an effect on the price of oil?
 

quest55720

Golden Member
Nov 3, 2004
1,339
0
0
Originally posted by: NeoV
if anyone thinks the drop had anything to do with Bush's action...you really need a clue.

a few footnotes - 12 to 18 months? um no - we are already drilling in the gulf - this ban, or the lifting of this ban, isn't about the gulf waters that we are already drilling in - there is no way in hell that we could have a rig, or rigs, pulling oil out in anything under 3 years in one of the areas currently under the ban - and that's at a minimum.

Also - it was the first Bush president that made this 'ban' a permanent one, rather than it needing to be re-voted on every year.

There is a very large part of the gulf that can not be drilled along the whole florida coast line.

If it is going to take 3 years then better get started now. With how much money is at stake it will get done sooner than 3 years. With the infrascture in place in the gulf oil will come very quick if they lift the ban and start auctioning leases off the florida coast. Sooner the better high paying jobs money staying in this country would a great thing. There needs to be something done to bridge us till a real alternative is found and become priced right for the masses that will be atleast 15 years.
 

JS80

Lifer
Oct 24, 2005
26,271
7
81
Even if this doesn't decrease oil prices - and my theory is that it will because perception is reality to oil traders - it will keep dollars circulating within the US and decrease the current account deficit.
 

SickBeast

Lifer
Jul 21, 2000
14,377
19
81
Offshore drilling is the US government grasping at straws to drop oil prices. They can't stop what is happening right now on the market, so this is a panic move to do anything that they can to drop prices in the near term.

IMO they need to do it as a worldwide depression is looming over what's happening on the oil markets. My estimate is that we need 10 years or so to properly implement green technology to counteract what is happening. Really and truly, that's all our governments can do (that's right, any government, no matter where).

The problem is that our governments are not moving in this direction whatsoever. They are bankrupt financially and will be further starved by the economic downturn (and potential depression). This isn't a race to develop technology, it's a race to implement it. We have the technologies that we need to get off oil completely right now. The problem is that we don't use them, we haven't been using them, and there's no sign of their widespread adoption anytime in the foreseeable future. That fact alone deeply troubles me in light of what is happening.

If our economy buckles before we run out of oil and before we become energy independent, the US, Canada, and the majority of the free world will become third world countries and the big oil exporters like Saudi Arabia and Iran will become the new world superpowers. Perhaps the invasion of Iraq was a hedge plan against this. :light:
 

Engineer

Elite Member
Oct 9, 1999
39,230
701
126
Originally posted by: Duwelon

His own speculation is exempt from his own rules.

See 2nd chart.

(capture of above chart)

Bush removed the executive order on Monday, July 14th before noon (Rose Garden Ceremony). Oil ROSE on that day. Notice that it had fallen the week before on inventory reports (given on Tuesday and Wednesday), until Iran had fired missles and on the rumor that Israel was using Iraq air space for and Iran bombing training run.

However, notice on July 15th, it continued to fall sharply on fundemental reports of less US useage and on the 16th with the report of increased inventories of crude and refined products.

So oil actually rose on the day that Bush removed the executive order and fell on the news days of higher inventories.

Instead of spouting crap from your fanboy keyboard, post something of substance to back up your ideas. Otherwise, you're pissing in the wind.
 

SickBeast

Lifer
Jul 21, 2000
14,377
19
81
Originally posted by: Engineer
Originally posted by: JD50
So what made the price of oil drop?

The fundamentals, as I've pointed out in this thread several times. Oil inventories came in at a 6 million barrel upside suprise and gasoline came in at 2.5 million barrels to the upside. Useage is down to a 5 year low with 3.5% less useage than last year (and has been less each month of this year than the same month last year, first time since 1991). The dollar has somewhat flatlined but still teetering either way.

Oil was already starting down on the above information about a week (or so) before. Iran tested the missles and it started back up, but once the missles firing stopped and there was talk of an embassy/negotiations with Iran, it started falling again. The talk of negotiations with Iran had far more effect on oil prices than the symbolic cancelling of a executive order on offshore drilling, that did nothing.
Perhaps the speculators realize that congress will not go along with what Bush wants to do. Even if you guys do drill offshore, it will take years for anything to come online. I heard +/- 5 years. I'm pretty sure something like that isn't really going to affect the oil market today.

Does Iran actually provide oil to the US despite the diplomatic situation?

A war in there would be a nightmare (for the entire world). I really hope it doesn't take another disaster for you guys to wake up and lobby to have your foreign policy changed.
 

JD50

Lifer
Sep 4, 2005
11,750
2,335
126
Originally posted by: SickBeast
Originally posted by: Engineer
Originally posted by: JD50
So what made the price of oil drop?

The fundamentals, as I've pointed out in this thread several times. Oil inventories came in at a 6 million barrel upside suprise and gasoline came in at 2.5 million barrels to the upside. Useage is down to a 5 year low with 3.5% less useage than last year (and has been less each month of this year than the same month last year, first time since 1991). The dollar has somewhat flatlined but still teetering either way.

Oil was already starting down on the above information about a week (or so) before. Iran tested the missles and it started back up, but once the missles firing stopped and there was talk of an embassy/negotiations with Iran, it started falling again. The talk of negotiations with Iran had far more effect on oil prices than the symbolic cancelling of a executive order on offshore drilling, that did nothing.
Perhaps the speculators realize that congress will not go along with what Bush wants to do. Even if you guys do drill offshore, it will take years for anything to come online. I heard +/- 5 years. I'm pretty sure something like that isn't really going to affect the oil market today.

Does Iran actually provide oil to the US despite the diplomatic situation?

A war in there would be a nightmare (for the entire world). I really hope it doesn't take another disaster for you guys to wake up and lobby to have your foreign policy changed.
Speculators aren't concerned with the oil market today.
 

SickBeast

Lifer
Jul 21, 2000
14,377
19
81
Originally posted by: JD50
Speculators aren't concerned with the oil market today.
Dude you're stupid and do a disservice to the intellectual community here through your posts.

Speculators are absolutely concerned with the oil market today! Are you telling me you don't think the price of oil would immediately skyrocket if the US were to invade Iran? Do you not realize that oil is bought and sold 50+ times before it reaches the consumer? It's not like it just sits around dormant in barrels with people stockpiling it; it has a short shelf life, and you can be damned sure that the price of gas at the pumps would shoot up just as fast as the price of crude in that type of situation.

These speculators monitor world events for a living. They are most definately interested in the now; it's how they predict the future. Are you one of those people who can't learn a lesson from the past?
 

Engineer

Elite Member
Oct 9, 1999
39,230
701
126
Originally posted by: JD50
Speculators aren't concerned with the oil market today.

But they aren't buying futures 5 years out either which is at least the timeline that any drilling offshore would produce results (assuming it's lifted in the first place).
 

JD50

Lifer
Sep 4, 2005
11,750
2,335
126
Originally posted by: Engineer
Originally posted by: JD50
Speculators aren't concerned with the oil market today.

But they aren't buying futures 5 years out either which is at least the timeline that any drilling offshore would produce results (assuming it's lifted in the first place).

You're right, but I still think that it'd have an effect. For example, if a study came out that said that we are going to be completely out of oil in 5 years, of course the price of oil would skyrocket, even though we'd still have plenty of oil tomorrow.

I'm not disagreeing with you that the reason that the price of oil dropped was due to other factors (that you mentioned), but I do think that Bush ending the executive ban on drilling played a role, albeit a minor one.
 

JD50

Lifer
Sep 4, 2005
11,750
2,335
126
Originally posted by: SickBeast
Originally posted by: JD50
Speculators aren't concerned with the oil market today.
Dude you're stupid and do a disservice to the intellectual community here through your posts.

Speculators are absolutely concerned with the oil market today! Are you telling me you don't think the price of oil would immediately skyrocket if the US were to invade Iran? Do you not realize that oil is bought and sold 50+ times before it reaches the consumer? It's not like it just sits around dormant in barrels with people stockpiling it; it has a short shelf life, and you can be damned sure that the price of gas at the pumps would shoot up just as fast as the price of crude in that type of situation.

These speculators monitor world events for a living. They are most definately interested in the now; it's how they predict the future. Are you one of those people who can't learn a lesson from the past?

I'm sorry but I'm not too concerned with you calling me stupid. Do I really need to bring up your other posts?
 

SickBeast

Lifer
Jul 21, 2000
14,377
19
81
Originally posted by: JD50
Originally posted by: SickBeast
Originally posted by: JD50
Speculators aren't concerned with the oil market today.
Dude you're stupid and do a disservice to the intellectual community here through your posts.

Speculators are absolutely concerned with the oil market today! Are you telling me you don't think the price of oil would immediately skyrocket if the US were to invade Iran? Do you not realize that oil is bought and sold 50+ times before it reaches the consumer? It's not like it just sits around dormant in barrels with people stockpiling it; it has a short shelf life, and you can be damned sure that the price of gas at the pumps would shoot up just as fast as the price of crude in that type of situation.

These speculators monitor world events for a living. They are most definately interested in the now; it's how they predict the future. Are you one of those people who can't learn a lesson from the past?

I'm sorry but I'm not too concerned with you calling me stupid. Do I really need to bring up your other posts?
Go right ahead asshat. Everything I said is true.

I suppose it's easier to falsely discredit someone else than to make a point yourself or say something intelligent. I pity you.
 

JD50

Lifer
Sep 4, 2005
11,750
2,335
126
Originally posted by: SickBeast
Originally posted by: JD50
Originally posted by: SickBeast
Originally posted by: JD50
Speculators aren't concerned with the oil market today.
Dude you're stupid and do a disservice to the intellectual community here through your posts.

Speculators are absolutely concerned with the oil market today! Are you telling me you don't think the price of oil would immediately skyrocket if the US were to invade Iran? Do you not realize that oil is bought and sold 50+ times before it reaches the consumer? It's not like it just sits around dormant in barrels with people stockpiling it; it has a short shelf life, and you can be damned sure that the price of gas at the pumps would shoot up just as fast as the price of crude in that type of situation.

These speculators monitor world events for a living. They are most definately interested in the now; it's how they predict the future. Are you one of those people who can't learn a lesson from the past?

I'm sorry but I'm not too concerned with you calling me stupid. Do I really need to bring up your other posts?
Go right ahead asshat. Everything I said is true.

I suppose it's easier to falsely discredit someone else than to make a point yourself or say something intelligent. I pity you.

:cookie:
 

SickBeast

Lifer
Jul 21, 2000
14,377
19
81
Originally posted by: JD50
Originally posted by: Engineer
Originally posted by: JD50
Speculators aren't concerned with the oil market today.

But they aren't buying futures 5 years out either which is at least the timeline that any drilling offshore would produce results (assuming it's lifted in the first place).

You're right, but I still think that it'd have an effect. For example, if a study came out that said that we are going to be completely out of oil in 5 years, of course the price of oil would skyrocket, even though we'd still have plenty of oil tomorrow.

I'm not disagreeing with you that the reason that the price of oil dropped was due to other factors (that you mentioned), but I do think that Bush ending the executive ban on drilling played a role, albeit a minor one.
Nice 360 there. You're disagreeing with yourself! I thought they weren't concerned with today's oil market?
 

charrison

Lifer
Oct 13, 1999
17,033
1
81
Originally posted by: Engineer
Originally posted by: JD50
Speculators aren't concerned with the oil market today.

But they aren't buying futures 5 years out either which is at least the timeline that any drilling offshore would produce results (assuming it's lifted in the first place).

I do believe they do sell oil futures that far out into the future.