Bulldozer, the state of the CPU industry, and Intel going forward

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Dark_Archonis

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Sep 19, 2010
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With Bulldozer being a big disappointment, people here and on other forums are having knee-jerk reactions and proclaiming this is the "dark ages" for the CPU industry, and so on and so forth. That couldn't be further from the truth.

The fact is, Intel is no longer even competing with AMD. AMD survives right now mainly because Intel allows it to. AMD is surviving in the low-budget and value segments, and they are getting killed in pretty much every other segment. Intel if they wanted could lower their profit margins and price AMD out of the market completely, but they won't. So Bulldozer not being competitive is frankly irrelevant to Intel at this point.

Make no mistake though, Intel does face very strong competition and it's not AMD. In the view of Intel, their main competition is ARM right now. Intel knows this very well. Going back years ago, Intel learned greatly from the Pentium 4 fiasco. They learned a lot from their mistakes there. They were also caught by surprise by ARM's huge progress over the last few years. The mentality of "it's good to be paranoid" is very much alive and well at Intel. Atom will soon be getting huge changes, and Intel will release Atom on an aggressive tick-tock schedule. Huge improvements will occur with Intel's desktop CPUs as well. Intel with its future desktop CPUs will protect its position at the high end of the CPU market from ARM, while at the same time attacking ARM from the low end, where ARM currently dominates, with future Atoms. Haswell is said to have a TDP as low as 10W, and future chips after Haswell will go even lower, all while achieving big performance improvements as well. Atom performance will improve greatly too, but the biggest thing with Atom will be a huge push for much lower power consumption, low enough to be competitive with ARM. Intel likely may also cut their profit margins on Atom to compete with ARM.

To those that are saying ARM will destroy Intel, or that Intel is finished in the future, it is foolish to write off Intel. Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it. Intel over the decades survived and successfully fought off competition from Japanese chip makers, from AMD, and IBM. Furthermore, Intel took on new markets over the decades, beat a lot of the dominant players in those markets and succeeded in those markets.

Finally I just have to say ... VINDICATION. Many months ago I criticized the Bulldozer design on this forum, and said that it would flop and it would be a disappointment. Many self-proclaimed experts here who said they worked in the CPU industry, or were engineers bashed me, told me I didn't know what I was taking about and pretty much pushed me off these forums for a long time. Now that Bulldozer is out, it's all plain and clear. It runs too hot, it's too big, is a step BACKWARDS in IPC for AMD CPUs, and it's uncompetitive with Sandy Bridge with the exception of very specific niche situations. To all you arrogant "experts" (whether you work in the CPU industry or not is irrelevant) you were WRONG. You deserve lots of crow for criticizing me and others here on this forum that knew Bulldozer would be a flop. Of course, this being the internet, most people never admit their wrongs or their faults.

The OP was fine up until it became a "told ya so" thread. Then it just became unnecessary rubbish.
-ViRGE
 
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Schmide

Diamond Member
Mar 7, 2002
5,718
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It's never what you say, it's how much of a D*** you are about it.
 

Lex Luger

Member
Oct 11, 2011
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intel has a mountain of money, the best chip fabs in the world,

they are currently building even better fabs which will be up a running soon, and about a 2 year lead over everyone else

Intel IS computers, all other chip makers are just wannabes compared to intel.

Intel can do whatever it wants, and if they keep up what theyve been doing, they will probably eventually take over all of the ARM market (tablets and phones) within 5 years

Once intel releases 14nm atoms, its all over for ARM
 
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Idontcare

Elite Member
Oct 10, 1999
21,110
59
91
Finally I just have to say ... VINDICATION. Many months ago I criticized the Bulldozer design on this forum, and said that it would flop and it would be a disappointment. Many self-proclaimed experts here who said they worked in the CPU industry, or were engineers bashed me, told me I didn't know what I was taking about and pretty much pushed me off these forums for a long time. Now that Bulldozer is out, it's all plain and clear. It runs too hot, it's too big, is a step BACKWARDS in IPC for AMD CPUs, and it's uncompetitive with Sandy Bridge with the exception of very specific niche situations. To all you arrogant "experts" (whether you work in the CPU industry or not is irrelevant) you were WRONG. You deserve lots of crow for criticizing me and others here on this forum that knew Bulldozer would be a flop. Of course, this being the internet, most people never admit their wrongs or their faults.

Proof?

Flamebait is not allowed, this part of your post is flamebait as it stands because you provide no proof or links to back-up your assertions.

Add links backing your assertions or edit your OP and remove the flamebait please.

Administrator Idontcare
 

Vic Vega

Diamond Member
Sep 24, 2010
4,535
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How many more threads do we need from wannabe industry analysts with the following opener?

With Bulldozer being a big disappointment.

It's getting old really. So BD doesn't work for your specific needs - awesome. Guess what? You're probably not the only one. No need to create yet another thread about it.
 

Hulk

Diamond Member
Oct 9, 1999
5,118
3,662
136
The KO punch that C2D was to AMD still has them on their knees and trying to get up. They've been stumbling around the ring ever since. And ever tick and tock after that has been akin to more punches to AMD. They have been losing ground at every Intel release cycle. In all honesty it would have been nothing short of miraculous for Bulldozer to have been the equal of SB much less superior.

It was a series of events that allowed AMD to take the lead of Intel back to 2005. And it's unlikely such a series of events can occur again.

Intel took the wrong path with a long pipeline, high frequency design. Mistake #1.
AMD stayed with the higher IPC design of the Athlon and continued to refine it.
When Intel started to be caught and surpassed by AMD instead of moving in a different direction Intel tried ramping up P4's clock, resulting in thermal issues. Mistake #2.
Intel had the resources to go to the mattresses and tap the then new Core mobile CPU designs and basically produce a better Athlon. And like a scolded cat they have never looked back.

It would be fantastic if AMD could give Intel a run for their money as Intel can do amazing things when their back is to the wall. Oh well, never say never.
 

Dribble

Platinum Member
Aug 9, 2005
2,076
611
136
Proof?

Flamebait is not allowed, this part of your post is flamebait as it stands because you provide no proof or links to back-up your assertions.

Add links backing your assertions or edit your OP and remove the flamebait please.

Administrator Idontcare

He's only got 85 posts, not a challenge to find - seems you and other posters *disagreed* with him:
http://forums.anandtech.com/showpost.php?p=30773010&postcount=117

tbh it's a bit silly asking if this forum has any posts with threads arguing about whether BD was any good or not - there must be 10,000 posts on the subject, most of which full of self proclamed *experts* saying they thought BD was the best thing since sliced bread or doomed to failure.
 

LOL_Wut_Axel

Diamond Member
Mar 26, 2011
4,310
8
81
AMD isn't doing good even on the budget segments. Look at the Celeron and the Pentium versus the Athlon II X2 and X3. All of Intel's entries there are faster than their AMD competition and consume a lot less power.
 

Ferzerp

Diamond Member
Oct 12, 1999
6,438
107
106
For a fact? It cracks me up.

Apparently he knew more than people who somehow thought AMD could jump ahead 3 of Intel's generations in one product. It's not that much of a stretch. There were people convinced AMD was going to pass nehalem, and pass sandy bridge all in one release when their previous offerings were behind nehalem.

I never understood the reasoning. (pixie dust?)
 

drizek

Golden Member
Jul 7, 2005
1,410
0
71
It really is very funny.

Two people who know nothing about Bulldozer take completely polar opinions on the subject. Then when we find out the truth, the one who happened to have guessed correctly starts acting all high and mighty.

Being right about Bulldozer was just a 50/50 shot. If you want anyone to get any crow, you have to prove that you were right for the right reasons.
 

Ancalagon44

Diamond Member
Feb 17, 2010
3,274
202
106
Yeah OP you didnt really say too much about it. It was only that one post you made, which people replied to.

You turned out to be right about its performance, but so did millions of other people, so I dont think its anything to brag about.
 

TuxDave

Lifer
Oct 8, 2002
10,571
3
71
It really is very funny.

Two people who know nothing about Bulldozer take completely polar opinions on the subject. Then when we find out the truth, the one who happened to have guessed correctly starts acting all high and mighty.

Being right about Bulldozer was just a 50/50 shot. If you want anyone to get any crow, you have to prove that you were right for the right reasons.

Reminds me of the "Moore's law is ending!" folk. They're going to get it right EVENTUALLY.....
 

Idontcare

Elite Member
Oct 10, 1999
21,110
59
91
Reminds me of the "Moore's law is ending!" folk. They're going to get it right EVENTUALLY.....

LOL, what a poignant observation :thumbsup:

Yeah now that Dribble has reminded me who this particular poster was "at the time", being right for all the wrong reasons is hardly an interesting outcome.

At least for the reasons I come to this forum, be a person right or wrong in their position, it is the cerebral interaction that I find rewarding and enjoyable.

Take the counter-example, there are a few people in this community who are right more often than they are wrong but they are asses about it and I tend to avoid them for that reason alone. Who wants to interact with a dick?

I sure hope these types of threads wind down in their frequency soon, as many others have noted it is getting old.
 

SickBeast

Lifer
Jul 21, 2000
14,377
19
81
OP, you know what, I have no issue with you gloating about being right. I had a bad feeling about Bulldozer as well. Something just wasn't right about it right from the start. You deserve due credit and those that ravaged against you should now eat their words while you languish in your essence of correctness. :)

I appreciate your reference to my "dark ages" thread as well.

Time will tell. I still predict a stagnant CPU upgrade market unless you're willing to spend at least $200 on one.
 

Halogen23

Member
Sep 5, 2008
151
0
0
I appreciate your reference to my "dark ages" thread as well.

Time will tell. I still predict a stagnant CPU upgrade market unless you're willing to spend at least $200 on one.

Who knows for sure, really? I bet AMD is already pressing hard into forging Piledriver into something a lot sharper than Bulldozer's shown to be. Their image really depends on it and the loyal enthusiast market feels let down all over. With Ivy Bridge around the corner, AMD has to figure out a way to gain back some ground in the desktop scene soon or they might be boxed out of it for the next 12-24 months.
 

Rifter

Lifer
Oct 9, 1999
11,522
751
126
Proof?

Flamebait is not allowed, this part of your post is flamebait as it stands because you provide no proof or links to back-up your assertions.

Add links backing your assertions or edit your OP and remove the flamebait please.

Administrator Idontcare

He means post # 114 in this thread http://forums.anandtech.com/showthread.php?t=2118732&page=5

Im sure of this because its the on ly BD thread he posted in that i recall and he has very few posts on this forum.

He did get pushed/reamed out by a few member in response to his post, including you. As it turns out was 100% correct, BD is a steaming pile of crap. His post may not have been the most diplomatic or well worded but as it turns out he was correct.

Edit, beat to the punch by dribble, sorry didnt read whole thread first.
 

Rifter

Lifer
Oct 9, 1999
11,522
751
126
I "reamed" him out? I really don't see how my post could even remotely be stated as being such.

No you were civil in your response(you always are, thats why i respect you), you just pretty much told him he didnt know what he was talking about because he wasnt in the industry. As it turns out weather he was in the industry or not doesnt matter as at the end of the day(year) he was correct and a vast majority of posters in that thread were wrong. He was also correct in that the people who were hyping BD and bashing everyone who disagreed are now being very quiet about it.
 

amenx

Diamond Member
Dec 17, 2004
4,418
2,740
136
It really is very funny.

Two people who know nothing about Bulldozer take completely polar opinions on the subject. Then when we find out the truth, the one who happened to have guessed correctly starts acting all high and mighty.

Being right about Bulldozer was just a 50/50 shot. If you want anyone to get any crow, you have to prove that you were right for the right reasons.
Sums it up well.
 

BD231

Lifer
Feb 26, 2001
10,568
138
106
LOL, what a poignant observation :thumbsup:

Yeah now that Dribble has reminded me who this particular poster was "at the time", being right for all the wrong reasons is hardly an interesting outcome.

At least for the reasons I come to this forum, be a person right or wrong in their position, it is the cerebral interaction that I find rewarding and enjoyable.

Take the counter-example, there are a few people in this community who are right more often than they are wrong but they are asses about it and I tend to avoid them for that reason alone. Who wants to interact with a dick?

I sure hope these types of threads wind down in their frequency soon, as many others have noted it is getting old.

DieselT5d.jpg
 

Idontcare

Elite Member
Oct 10, 1999
21,110
59
91
No you were civil in your response(you always are, thats why i respect you), you just pretty much told him he didnt know what he was talking about because he wasnt in the industry. As it turns out weather he was in the industry or not doesnt matter as at the end of the day(year) he was correct and a vast majority of posters in that thread were wrong. He was also correct in that the people who were hyping BD and bashing everyone who disagreed are now being very quiet about it.

Actually that wasn't really my intent although I can't argue with you, or anyone for that matter, if you say that was how my message came across.

The purpose of my post was to say that in any industry it is not enough to just walk into a conversation and look people in the eye and say the equivalent of "I'm right and your wrong, nanny nanny boo-boo".

If you can't justify your argument as to why people are wrong then saying they are wrong and being right is hardly value-added to the conversation.

My request for the member to help shed some light on his professional experience was more a nod to the fact that there are a number of industry insiders on this forum, people who are literally design engineers of these chips but who won't ever admit to it publicly, and I've come to know a few of them.

As such I know to recognize their public posts for what they really are, intentionally vague double-talk that tells you more by way of what they won't mention versus the stuff they actually directly speak to.

I was curious to find out if this member was such a person as that would have gone a great distance in establishing validity and credibility to their claims and assertions (which up to that point were notably lacking in their technical details and fundamental basis). It turned out the person really was just making a 50/50 guess like so many others.

No harm in that, but coming back just to gloat about it is hardly "winning" either.

And there is a reason gloat threads get locked, I'm not saying this as a mod either, gloat threads are by design and intent inflammatory and baiting. There's probably at least 100 members here who would love to gloat a bit after seeing their opinions on bulldozer bear out some truth in reality but the forum would devolve into a fanboy flamefest if those 100 people each posted their own thread extolling "vindication".

At any rate this all seems like old news, the water has long since passed under the bridge. And I'll still take a well-reasoned and thought out justified opinion that may well be wrong over a brash, unjustified opinion that might be right for the wrong reasons any day of the week.

Lottery winners don't know what numbers are going to come up, and yet people do win the lottery. The cause and effect is not real, lottery winners did not pick the winning numbers, it was mere coincidence and chance that their numbers matched the ones selected by the balls/machine/etc.
 
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