Bubble within a bubble? The next housing crisis nobody seems to be talking about?

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alchemize

Lifer
Mar 24, 2000
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Although there is still quite a bit of unwinding to take place in the sub-prime market yet to come, all the blogs I'm reading are referring to the upcoming (2010, 2011).

Credit-Suisse graph

I'm sure one of our resident mortgage brokers could explain them better, but as I understand them these are "teaser rate" loans that have about 5 years of very low interest, and negatively amortize like a zero interest loan, then after a period the rates (and paymets) pop up dramatically often tripling the payment.

Where they differ from sub-prime is these are the loans that McMansions were built/bought on. Typically a higher FICO score, gainfully employed, overzealous borrower.

Now the solution in theory would be everyone should refinance at low rates. But because of the market drops, everyone is underwater and so the banks won't loan to them. Banks are pocketing TARP funds basically prepping for the next wave to hit, probably hoping that the government will print even more money for them.

 

alchemize

Lifer
Mar 24, 2000
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Um, that article is from June 2008. I'll have to see if I can find the date of my graph, I'd assume it was more current...

edit: http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/ has an article on this today too. His blog says that is the "most recent graph" from Credit Suisse, so I'll give him the benefit of the doubt.
 

RyanPaulShaffer

Diamond Member
Jul 13, 2005
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I've heard rumblings about this, but I don't know too many details about it. I've also heard that the commercial real estate bubble is the next to burst.
 

GoPackGo

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Oct 10, 2003
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I looked into refinancing through This and it is a damned joke.

Banks can still tack on huge fees and determine your rate via your credit score and you many end up worse off.
 

Slew Foot

Lifer
Sep 22, 2005
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Originally posted by: alchemize
Um, that article is from June 2008. I'll have to see if I can find the date of my graph, I'd assume it was more current...

edit: http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/ has an article on this today too. His blog says that is the "most recent graph" from Credit Suisse, so I'll give him the benefit of the doubt.

That graph cant be correct if it implies that 0 loans have reset as of 3/09, when many loans by then have already reset. CS hasnt updated their graphs in a while.
 

alchemize

Lifer
Mar 24, 2000
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Originally posted by: Slew Foot
Originally posted by: alchemize
Um, that article is from June 2008. I'll have to see if I can find the date of my graph, I'd assume it was more current...

edit: http://www.doctorhousingbubble.com/ has an article on this today too. His blog says that is the "most recent graph" from Credit Suisse, so I'll give him the benefit of the doubt.

That graph cant be correct if it implies that 0 loans have reset as of 3/09, when many loans by then have already reset. CS hasnt updated their graphs in a while.


How about this one, source is business week
 

Slew Foot

Lifer
Sep 22, 2005
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Seems to be more accurate but its still base off of a CS graph. At any rate most of those loans are in the CA Bay area and other expensive enclaves. All those doofuses who think their crap dont stink because their house hasnt fallen 50% are in for a surprise.
 
Dec 30, 2004
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So what happens after all this? Why hyperinflation? I don't understand the link Slew (in your sig you say Hyperinflation is after the bubble).
 

OCGuy

Lifer
Jul 12, 2000
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Many option ARMs are actually good loans right now. The rate is so low, they arent deffering any interest, meaning it wont get to 115% of the original loan amount, meaning it wont recast before the original contract period.

But yes, when they do recast, the borrower is going to go from a very low interest rate on a 30 year term to a very low interest rate reamortized to a 25 year term, and if the rates go up..........bye bye house.

As far as ALT-A, they were generally people with better credit than subprime, and got the best rates on 5/1 I/O Libor ARMs, instead of the standard 2/28 and 3/27 subprime loans, which have already exploded.

It will be a blip on the radar imo. Nothing like the subprimers.
 

OCGuy

Lifer
Jul 12, 2000
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Originally posted by: GoPackGo
I looked into refinancing through This and it is a damned joke.

Banks can still tack on huge fees and determine your rate via your credit score and you many end up worse off.

That program is helping many people right now. It is one thing I will give credit to Obama for.

If you dont qualify, or tried to go through a shitty bank, it isnt the program's fault.
 

GoPackGo

Diamond Member
Oct 10, 2003
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Originally posted by: OCguy
Originally posted by: GoPackGo
I looked into refinancing through This and it is a damned joke.

Banks can still tack on huge fees and determine your rate via your credit score and you many end up worse off.

That program is helping many people right now. It is one thing I will give credit to Obama for.

If you dont qualify, or tried to go through a shitty bank, it isnt the program's fault.

Shitty banks like BofA, Wells Fargo and Citibank?
 

OCGuy

Lifer
Jul 12, 2000
27,227
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91
Originally posted by: GoPackGo
Originally posted by: OCguy
Originally posted by: GoPackGo
I looked into refinancing through This and it is a damned joke.

Banks can still tack on huge fees and determine your rate via your credit score and you many end up worse off.

That program is helping many people right now. It is one thing I will give credit to Obama for.

If you dont qualify, or tried to go through a shitty bank, it isnt the program's fault.

Shitty banks like BofA, Wells Fargo and Citibank?


So then it is their fault your credit score sucks and dont qualify? (If I am reading into what you wrote correctly)
 

GoPackGo

Diamond Member
Oct 10, 2003
6,414
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Originally posted by: OCguy
Originally posted by: GoPackGo
Originally posted by: OCguy
Originally posted by: GoPackGo
I looked into refinancing through This and it is a damned joke.

Banks can still tack on huge fees and determine your rate via your credit score and you many end up worse off.

That program is helping many people right now. It is one thing I will give credit to Obama for.

If you dont qualify, or tried to go through a shitty bank, it isnt the program's fault.

Shitty banks like BofA, Wells Fargo and Citibank?


So then it is their fault your credit score sucks and dont qualify? (If I am reading into what you wrote correctly)

No...ive been reading housing / credit forums on the net.

 

OCGuy

Lifer
Jul 12, 2000
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Originally posted by: GoPackGo
No...ive been reading housing / credit forums on the net.

Ah, ok. Then I apologize. But I am sure there is much misinformation out there about it.
 
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