*BREAKING*:polls are in! Bush victory!

[Hammer]

on drudge:

Election 2004 has been rocked with first wave of exit polls which show Kerry competitive in key states, campaign and media sources tell DRUDGE.... National Election Pool -- representing six major news organization -- show Kerry in striking distance in Florida and Ohio.. MORE...

UPDATE to drudge story:

Exit poll mania spread through media and campaign circles Tuesday afternoon after first wave of morning data showed Kerry competitive in key states.... National Election Pool -- representing six major news organization -- shows Kerry in striking distance -- with small lead -- in Florida and Ohio, sources tell DRUDGE... But early sample was based on a 59- 41 women to men ratio... MORE... Senate races: Thune +4 Castor +3 Burr +6 Bunning +6 Coburn +6 Demint +4 Salazar +4...

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
from rawstory.com

The first number is the percentage of voters supporting Kerry, the second are those supporting Bush.

AZ 45-55
CO 48-51
LA 42-57
MI 51-48
WI 52-48
PA 60-40
OH 52-48
FL 51-48

Correction: The second set of poll are also from the consortium (we said earlier they were from the Kerry camp). These show similar trends, also suggesting the senator will will New Mexico and New Hampshire.

MICH 51-47
NM 50-48
MINN 58-40
WISC 52-43
IOWA 49-49
NH 57-41

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
from drudge:

Exit poll mania spread through media and campaign circles Tuesday afternoon after first wave of morning data showed Kerry competitive in key states.... National Election Pool -- representing six major news organization -- shows Kerry in striking distance -- with small 1% lead -- in Florida and Ohio, sources tell DRUDGE... [But early 2000 exit polls showed Gore +3 in Florida; showed Gore-Bush even in CO [Bush won by 9], exits showed Gore +4 in AZ [Bush won by 6]... Exits Senate races: Thune +4 Castor +3 Burr +6 Bunning +6 Coburn +6 Demint +4 Salazar +4...

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
2ND WAVE : Kerry up 1 in Fla., Ohio, 2 in NM... Developing...

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Unconfirmed 2nd exits give Kerry edge: Leads U.S.: 50-49,
Florida: 50-49, Ohio: 50-49, Down in New Mexico: 50-48...

 

[yankeesfan]

Originally posted by: Hammer

Election 2004 has been rocked with first wave of exit polls which show Kerry competitive in key states, campaign and media sources tell DRUDGE.... National Election Pool -- representing six major news organization -- show Kerry in striking distance in Florida and Ohio.. MORE...

on drudge

i hope that's all he wants.

 

[conjur]

On rawstory.com

EARLY EXIT POLLING PREDICTS KERRY LANDSLIDE: AHEAD IN FL, OH, PA, WI...
Kerry ahead in MI 51-48, WI 52-48, PA 60-40, OH 52-48, FL 51-48 Full story with additional exits to post in under 15 minutes...
Note: Exits not very reliable, though typically favor Republicans. Exits do not count absentees. Do not decide not to vote because of these polls.


But, other things I've read show Democrats typically vote later in the day (I think this year is not typical, though. )

And, early voting in places like IA and FL were in Kerry's favor before.

 

[dmcowen674]

Originally posted by: Hammer
[Topic Title: *Breaking*: first batch of exit polls out!!!

We have our own exit poll as well as someone mentioned Slashdot.

 

[Hammer]

Originally posted by: yankeesfan

Originally posted by: Hammer

Election 2004 has been rocked with first wave of exit polls which show Kerry competitive in key states, campaign and media sources tell DRUDGE.... National Election Pool -- representing six major news organization -- show Kerry in striking distance in Florida and Ohio.. MORE...

on drudge

i hope that's all he wants.

interpret it however you wish, i'm just posting updates.

 

[Hammer]

Originally posted by: dmcowen674

Originally posted by: Hammer
[Topic Title: *Breaking*: first batch of exit polls out!!!

We have our own exit poll as well as someone mentioned Slashdot.

tech sites aren't an accurate sample of the population

 

[shiner]

They really shouldn't be releasing this stuff until the polls close.

 

[lordtyranus]

Originally posted by: conjur
On rawstory.com

EARLY EXIT POLLING PREDICTS KERRY LANDSLIDE: AHEAD IN FL, OH, PA, WI...
Kerry ahead in MI 51-48, WI 52-48, PA 60-40, OH 52-48, FL 51-48 Full story with additional exits to post in under 15 minutes...
Note: Exits not very reliable, though typically favor Republicans. Exits do not count absentees. Do not decide not to vote because of these polls.


But, other things I've read show Democrats typically vote later in the day (I think this year is not typical, though. )

And, early voting in places like IA and FL were in Kerry's favor before.

I find it extremely difficult to believe Kerry could have 60% of the PA vote.

Zogby has a 252-252 tie with PA and VA up in the air.

http://www.zogby.com/

 

[FuzzyBee]

Originally posted by: lordtyranus


I find it extremely difficult to believe Kerry could have 60% of the PA vote.

Depends on how many planted votes there were

 

[Infohawk]

Originally posted by: lordtyranus

Originally posted by: conjur
On rawstory.com

EARLY EXIT POLLING PREDICTS KERRY LANDSLIDE: AHEAD IN FL, OH, PA, WI...
Kerry ahead in MI 51-48, WI 52-48, PA 60-40, OH 52-48, FL 51-48 Full story with additional exits to post in under 15 minutes...
Note: Exits not very reliable, though typically favor Republicans. Exits do not count absentees. Do not decide not to vote because of these polls.


But, other things I've read show Democrats typically vote later in the day (I think this year is not typical, though. )

And, early voting in places like IA and FL were in Kerry's favor before.

I find it extremely difficult to believe Kerry could have 60% of the PA vote.

Zogby has a 252-252 tie with PA and VA up in the air.

http://www.zogby.com/

Isn't there a difference between normal polls and exit polls.

 

[Hammer]

Originally posted by: lordtyranus

Originally posted by: conjur
On rawstory.com

EARLY EXIT POLLING PREDICTS KERRY LANDSLIDE: AHEAD IN FL, OH, PA, WI...
Kerry ahead in MI 51-48, WI 52-48, PA 60-40, OH 52-48, FL 51-48 Full story with additional exits to post in under 15 minutes...
Note: Exits not very reliable, though typically favor Republicans. Exits do not count absentees. Do not decide not to vote because of these polls.


But, other things I've read show Democrats typically vote later in the day (I think this year is not typical, though. )

And, early voting in places like IA and FL were in Kerry's favor before.

I find it extremely difficult to believe Kerry could have 60% of the PA vote.

Zogby has a 252-252 tie with PA and VA up in the air.

http://www.zogby.com/

yeah, the PA figure sounds fishy

 

[naddicott]

Normal polls completely miss voters who don't have a landline at hom (i.e. cellphone only). Exit polls take a sample of people who actually voted. Normal polls also do a "likely voter" fudge that seems to have greatly underestimated turnout this year.

 

[Hugenstein]

Here are the first exit polls, confirmed from sources in both parties, as leaked to RAW STORY. The first number is the percentage of voters supporting Kerry, the second are those supporting Bush.

AZ 45-55
CO 48-51
LA 42-57
MI 51-48
WI 52-48
PA 60-40
OH 52-48
FL 51-48

A second round of polls, conducted by the Kerry campaign, show similar trends, also suggesting the senator will will New Mexico and New Hampshire.

MICH 51-47
NM 50-48
MINN 58-40
WISC 52-43
IOWA 49-49
NH 57-41



PA(from the first set) and WISC and NH(from the second set) all seem pretty far off other polling data.

 

[SuperTool]

Exit polls pointing to Bush Exit

 

[conjur]

Originally posted by: lordtyranus

Originally posted by: conjur
On rawstory.com

EARLY EXIT POLLING PREDICTS KERRY LANDSLIDE: AHEAD IN FL, OH, PA, WI...
Kerry ahead in MI 51-48, WI 52-48, PA 60-40, OH 52-48, FL 51-48 Full story with additional exits to post in under 15 minutes...
Note: Exits not very reliable, though typically favor Republicans. Exits do not count absentees. Do not decide not to vote because of these polls.


But, other things I've read show Democrats typically vote later in the day (I think this year is not typical, though. )

And, early voting in places like IA and FL were in Kerry's favor before.

I find it extremely difficult to believe Kerry could have 60% of the PA vote.

Zogby has a 252-252 tie with PA and VA up in the air.

http://www.zogby.com/

Zogby's was a phone poll, not an exit poll.

Also, Zogby's state polls are not that accurate. Their sample sizes are much smaller than their national polls.

 

[Red Dawn]

I still expect the Dub to win but I am really enjoying watching the Republicans squirm. Even if the Dub wins by a small margin I see it as the American Voter rejecting the Dub's policies as elections can be seen as a mandate by the Voters.

 

[Don Vito Corleone]

I think publishing these "leaked" exit polls this early in the day is dirty pool, but I certainly hope they're right. As I've been saying for almost a week, I think Kerry will win pretty decisively, but I'm concerned that anyone who hears the word "landslide" will find some excuse not to stand in the rain waiting to vote.

 

[Don Vito Corleone]

Originally posted by: Red Dawn
I still expect the Dub to win but I am really enjoying watching the Republicans squirm. Even if the Dub wins by a small margin I see it as the American Voter rejecting the Dub's policies as elections can be seen as a mandate by the Voters.

Unfortunately, if you're right, that lesson will last all of a few hours, and by Weds morning, it'll be back to business as usual. This particular Cabinet are nothing if not focused.

I don't see it, though. This won't be THAT close an election, and Bush won't win IMO.

 

[lordtyranus]

Originally posted by: conjur

Originally posted by: lordtyranus

Originally posted by: conjur
On rawstory.com

EARLY EXIT POLLING PREDICTS KERRY LANDSLIDE: AHEAD IN FL, OH, PA, WI...
Kerry ahead in MI 51-48, WI 52-48, PA 60-40, OH 52-48, FL 51-48 Full story with additional exits to post in under 15 minutes...
Note: Exits not very reliable, though typically favor Republicans. Exits do not count absentees. Do not decide not to vote because of these polls.


But, other things I've read show Democrats typically vote later in the day (I think this year is not typical, though. )

And, early voting in places like IA and FL were in Kerry's favor before.

I find it extremely difficult to believe Kerry could have 60% of the PA vote.

Zogby has a 252-252 tie with PA and VA up in the air.

http://www.zogby.com/

Zogby's was a phone poll, not an exit poll.

Also, Zogby's state polls are not that accurate. Their sample sizes are much smaller than their national polls.

And his national poll has Bush up 48-47. Mathematically, there is no way Bush could be losing EVERY swing state and still be up in the nationwide poll.

 

[Infohawk]

Originally posted by: lordtyranus
And his national poll has Bush up 48-47. Mathematically, there is no way Bush could be losing EVERY swing state and still be up in the nationwide poll.

Really? Can you show me how that works?

 

[SuperTool]

Well, the red states are really red, and blue states are kinda pale blue. So Bush could easily lose the electoral vote and win popular. However, I think Kerry is gonna win popular vote. Also, I don't buy that VA is tied.
Something is going haywire at Zogby. I think Kerry will win PA.

 

[conjur]

http://www.bluelemur.com/index.php?p=386

Sen. John Kerry looks to make a clean victory of the electoral college, according to exit polls conducted by a consortium of six media organizations (the National Election Pool) that RAW STORY has acquired and confirmed with myriad sources.

Exit polls typically favor Republicans in early voting, as Republicans by-and-large tend to vote earlier in the day. This may spell bad news for President Bush, though it?s also important to consider that early polls are routinely unreliable.

The polls put Kerry ahead in Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Minnesota and Wisconsin. In the polls received, Bush leads in Colorado, Louisiana and Arizona. Iowa is a tie.

Here are the first exit polls, confirmed from sources in both parties, as leaked to RAW STORY. The first number is the percentage of voters supporting Kerry, the second are those supporting Bush.

AZ 45-55
CO 48-51
LA 42-57
MI 51-48
WI 52-48
PA 60-40
OH 52-48
FL 51-48

A second round of polls, conducted by the Kerry campaign, show similar trends, also suggesting the senator will will New Mexico and New Hampshire.

MICH 51-47
NM 50-48
MINN 58-40
WISC 52-43
IOWA 49-49
NH 57-41

 

[NeoV]

please god stay on this trend!

 

[Infohawk]

Originally posted by: NeoV
please god stay on this trend!

:thumbsup:

Four years... the time is coming...

(I hope!)

 

[PingSpike]

This sucks because like DonVito said, some people are just going to go "fvck it". And WTF is up with that PA pole? 60-40? No way is it that clear cut, that states been up in the air for awhile.